Dec 31 2015

How you lose money in the market

False Moves & the Force Behind Them

Re-Posted on December 31, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION : Mr. Armstrong,
I’ve heard you refer to “the false move”, and have witnessed it myself. I know there is no conspiracy to ruin my day nor deter me from trading. I was just curious, what causes this?

Thank you,
H

PS-Merry Christmas!

ANSWER: The real energy within a market is always to trap the majority for then they lose money and it forces them to cover their position. If 90% of the people are long, then any news can set off the collapse. If you scare the majority, there will be no bid when you try to sell, which results in a flash crash.

Likewise, the lows are made by excessive short positions. Again, something takes place and then the news sparks a short-cover panic. Likewise, because the majority are actually short, they are forced to cover and reverse the position which creates an abrupt swing to the upside.

Therefore, markets always make the false move for that is the sling-shot that propels the market in the opposite direction. This is simply the REQUIRED movement of markets to further an important directional change.

We may see that FALSE MOVE yet with a sling-shot on a very major scale. This is the BIG SHIFT that will set the stage for markets to align in order to prepare for what is looking to be the collapse of Western Governments & their Monetary System that is now way out of control. The closings today are an omen of what is to come.

Dec 31 2015

This change will make the next bear market much worse!

NYSE & NASDAQ Ending Limit Risk Orders — You Are On Your Own

Re-Posted on December 31, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

The New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ are terminating stop-loss and good-til-canceled orders beginning Feb. 26, 2016. They are claiming risks occur from such orders during volatile trading. They are really admitting that there is a liquidity crisis. Additionally, going after high frequency trading and demanding that they turn over the source code to the proprietary systems will send the smart firms out of the markets. Cancelling these type of orders will only increase the risks for the average investor. The assumption has been that a flash crash takes place, these orders are elected, and then the market recovers. Complaints then materialize with hindsight, as always. Eliminating these types of orders will work in the opposite manner when there is a real decline, for they have the tendency to create a bank of sellers on any bounce and others are carried out bankrupt and unable to get out in a panic. As always, this demonstrates the one-dimensional thinking that screws up everything. This may lead to more jumpers as we saw back during the 1930s.

Dec 31 2015

The IRS Hunts for things to Tax

Maximum Gift One Can Give Anyone in Business is $25

Rew-Posted on December 31, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

The hunt for money is absolutely destroying everything. The IRS has placed a maximum on the depreciation of assets. Any high-end cars over $40,000 must be paid for with after tax dollars. This will have some impact on the high-end markets. States are already sharing revenue and info. As of January 2014, if you buy a car and have roots in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, you have to pay the higher sales tax; then the dealer has carves it up and New Jersey gets its 7% and 1% goes to Pennsylvania.

States, such as New Jersey, already impose a second surcharge sales tax on any amount over $45,000. They call this the rich man’s tax. You pay the gross sales tax on the full price of the car and then a surcharge on any excess over $45,000.

Now on top of this, the IRS has imposed a $25 limit for ALL business gifts you give directly or indirectly to each person during your tax year. A gift to a company that is intended for the eventual personal use or benefit of a particular person or a limited class of people will be considered an indirect gift to that particular person or to the individuals within that class of people who receive the gift. You cannot even buy an employee dinner.

The IRS used an example to explain this on their website:

“Bob Jones sells products to Local Company. He and his wife, Jan, gave Local Company three gourmet gift baskets to thank them for their business. They paid $80 for each gift basket, or $240 total. Three of Local Company’s executives took the gift baskets home for their families’ use. Bob and Jan have no independent business relationship with any of the executives’ other family members. They can deduct a total of $75 ($25 limit × 3) for the gift baskets.”

Dec 31 2015

Today’s market closes are very import to the future of the next several years.

Closings Today will be the Year-End Signals

Re-Posted on December 31, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

The Holiday Schedule is below. The closing for our models will be TODAY and for the most part this will be a full normal day.

We are hovering around our year-end numbers in many markets from gold and the pound to oil and the Dow, which if it closes lower than last year 17823.07, then there is a risk that we will see further consolidation in 2016 and the Phase Transition will be far worse pointing to 2017-2020. As we move into 2017, this will be the year from Political Hell since the direction of the world is on the brink with political elections which may yet prove to be a revolution and generational shift in so many countries not the least will be the US elections in November 2016.

Silver is already below its key number warning it is weaker than gold. Gold is trying to hold on to 1044, but the day is just starting. The S&P500 number for the close will be 205890 whereas in the DAX it lies at 1036700. In the British pound, the number is 15200, but the main number will be 146.12. Of course in Crude, the key number will be 35.11.

This is just a few markets. Today’s close will signal what is to come for 2016.

Equity and Option Markets

Thursday, Dec 31  Regular Hours

Friday, Jan 1  Closed

Monday, Jan 4  Regular Hours

Spot Forex

Thursday, Dec 31  16:00 CT – regular close

Friday, Jan 1 Closed

Sunday, Jan 3 16:00 CT – reopen

Futures Holiday Schedule Equity Products

Thursday, Dec 31  1600 CT – Regular close

Friday, Jan 1  New Year’s Observed

Sunday, Jan 3  1700 CT – Regular open for trade date Monday, Jan 4

Monday, Jan 4  1600 CT – Regular close

Interest Rate and FX Products

Thursday, Dec 31 1600 CT – Regular close

Friday, Jan 1 New Year’s Observed

Sunday, Jan 3 1700 CT – Regular open for trade date Monday, Jan 4

Monday, Jan 4 1600 CT – Regular close

Energy and Metals Products

Thursday, Dec 31  1600 CT – Regular close

Friday, Jan 1  New Year’s Observed

Sunday, Jan 3  1700 CT – Regular open for trade date Monday, Jan 4

Monday, Jan 4  1600 CT – Regular close

Grain Products

Thursday, Dec 31  Regular close – Per each product schedule

Friday, Jan 1  New Year’s Observed

Sunday, Jan 3  1900 CT – Open for trade date Monday, Jan 4

Monday, Jan 4  Regular close – Per each product schedule

Livestock and Lumber Products

Thursday, Dec 31  1355 CT – Early Close

Friday, Jan 1  New Year’s Observed

Monday, Jan 4  900 CT - Lumber market open  905 CT - Livestock markets open  Regular close – Per each product schedule

Russell Equity Index, U.S. Dollar Index, and Mini Metals

Thursday, Dec 31  Regular Hours

Friday, Jan 1  Closed Monday,

Jan 4  Regular Hours

Sugar No. 11, Coffee “C”, Cotton No. 2, Cocoa, and FCOJ Contracts

Thursday, Dec 31  Regular Hours

Friday, Jan 1  Closed

Monday, Jan 4  Regular Hours

VIX Futures

Thursday, Dec 31  Regular Hours

Friday, Jan 1  Closed

Monday, Jan 4 Regular hours (extended hours open at 17:00 CT on Sunday evening)

Dec 30 2015

More support for the Strong Dollar!

China Shuts down FOREX at Foreign Banks to Try to Stop Dollar Rise

Re-Posted on December 30, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

China has suspended FOREX business at three main foreign banks in an effort to curb the outflow of capital into the rising dollar. This is an interesting attempt to curb the rise in the dollar and it is clearly showing the overall trend in motion.

It is interesting that China has taken this approach for we have elected ALL FOUR of the Monthly Bullish Reversals from the January 1st, 2014 low in the dollar confirming the change in trend. We still recommend that China just float its currency for the West will blame it for manipulation when in fact the global trend is toward a strong dollar into 2017.

Dec 30 2015

The beginning of the end of cash in the EU

Happy New Year — Bail-In Passed for Europe’s Banks

Re-Posted on December 30, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

The mainstream media is not extensively reporting on the “experimental” bail-in that the EU imposed on Cyrus. The bail-in, that they swore would never be applied to Europe, will officially begin in January. This new power will be in the interest of taxpayers as they will no longer be forced to pay for failed banks that were created by the childish structure of the euro that was created by lawyers who never understood the economy. But wait a minute — aren’t taxpayers the people with deposits in banks? Hm. Moving to electronic money is also about preventing bank runs. The bottom-line here is that they will just take your money to save bankers. Eliminating cash accomplishes two things: (1) they get to tax everything, and (2) you cannot withdraw money from banks.

The bail-in directive was agreed upon on January 1, 2015, and the bail-in system will take effect on January 1, 2016. So here we are, just in case you missed this one. Their website states:

Parliament and Council Presidency negotiators reached a political agreement Wednesday on the draft bank recovery and resolution directive, the first step towards setting up an EU system to deal with struggling banks. This directive will introduce the “bail-in” principle by January 2016, thereby ensuring that taxpayers will not be first in line to pay for bank failures.

The entire system of insuring banks after their collapse during the Great Depression was to restore confidence to end the hoarding and revitalize the economy. Now they have allowed bankers to do everything they did before, and they have reversed the insurance created to restore confidence in banking. They justify this by claiming taxpayers will not have to pay for the failed banks.

Over 9,000 banks failed during the Great Depression in the United States; an estimated 4,000 banks failed in 1933 alone. Roosevelt’s fifteen-minute radio address to the American people on Sunday evening, March 12, was his first Fireside Chat. He told the public that only sound banks would be licensed to reopen by the U.S. Treasury: “I can assure you that it is safer to keep your money in a reopened bank than under the mattress.”

When the institutions reopened for business on March 13, 1933, depositors stood in line to return their hoarded cash to neighborhood banks. Within two weeks, Americans had redeposited more than half of the currency that they had withdrawn from the banks due to the collapse in confidence.

Banks failed even after the bank holiday. The process was indeed a “bail-in”. People would get whatever the scraps were worth upon the collapse of the bank. Absolutely everything the governments did to restore confidence has been reversed in Europe. Yet, they try to “stimulate” the economy with QE? Just brain-dead.

Dec 29 2015

What is in store for us in the next two years?

The Dow for Year-End – Will it All Just Go Nuts for 2017?

Re-Posted on December 29, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

The Dow Jones Industrials still remains in a bullish posture on a broader perspective. The real critical support will lie at 16500 and the Panic Support is well below the market at 13100. Panic Support is the level that if breached intraday, this is where a Panic Crash unfolds. That is the real important level for 2016, but it does not appear to be in the cards. Otherwise, a closing for 2015 above 16500 is still moderately bullish whereas the technical levels will be 17345 and 18879.

We will be issuing the World Share Market Review after the first of the year overing North & South America, Europe, Middle East, and AustralsAsia as well as Asia from India and China up to Japan. We will also discuss the prospect for a continued sideways market for 2016 with the potential for the Phase Transition unfolding 2017-2020.

Keep in mind that the Bail-In becomes a formal European position January 1st, 2016, and 2017 is when G20 begins swapping info on everyone everywhere. Capital is being herded with no doubt and the smart money will begin to position itself realize it is time to get off the GRID. We have the Presidential elections in the USA at year-end and this too will help keep the markets guessing – Trump v Hillary or will the Republicans split entirely as they desperately try to force their own pick as the Republican candidate in a dictatorial move as they have done before.

Yet 2017 will see elections in Europe both in France and Germany. Of course we will also have the British vote to leave the EU. So looking at this agenda of fundamental chaos, it is not that hard to see why the computer is showing it all goes nuts starting in 2017. The question we will address is shall 2017 be a REACTION LOW with the false move before the breakout or a high with the meltdown afterwards?

Dec 28 2015

China appears to be taking a smarter financial approach then the west is — maybe they will survive the coming collapse?

China to Stimulate by Cutting Taxes

Posted on December 28, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

China is demonstrating it is more practical than anyone else in the industrialized world. They have announced that they will “reasonably” set limits on new local government debt in 2016. The Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said at a work conference in Beijing on Monday that they will actually limit local debt; something nobody else does. China will also adopt a much more flexible fiscal policy which shall include gradually increasing fiscal deficit ratio and expanding its budget deficit. So China will increase its debt in a gradual manner to try to stimulate the economic decline it is facing ahead.

These policies are to be supplemented by a cut in taxes to help companies reduce their burdens and thus help to prevent rising unemployment. While the Republicans effectively force tax reduction in the year-end budget, there is little doubt that the Democrats alone would never adopt such a measure. The idea of cutting taxes at all in Europe is up there with treason.

We can see that China is taking a far more practical approach to trying to manage its economy that we see in the West. Perhaps when they too come to realize that debt is not the answer and actually compete with money that would otherwise expand the economy, hopefully the day will come when public debt is just forbidden.be more

Dec 28 2015

Will the private Gold be taken again?

Pi & Major Changes in the Monetary System

Posted on December 28, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, you have said that the Pi cycle shows up everywhere in finance. I have looked at the charts you posted in the Roman Empire. Has this had a major impact in modern times aside from your Economic Confidence Model?

ANSWER: Of course. Just look at Roosevelt’s 1934 confiscation of gold. Add 31.4 years and you get 1964, the last year silver appeared in the coinage. Add another 31.4 years and you come to 1995. That was the historic low in the dollar against the Japanese yen for example. Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1925. That was the last year they minted gold sovereigns. They resumed 31.4 years later – 1957.

This is but one derivative of time. There are over 40 tests the computer runs just on Pi alone with this forming just one model. This is why the Forecasting Arrays cannot be reversed engineered because there are 72 models all independent and this is the sum of all time models with numerous sub-models within each. The top row is the composite and is the most important reflecting turning points with the highest and lowest bars. The color changes to indicate direction blue rising pink declining. Panic Cycles are outside reversals or big moves in one direction (breakout/collapses) where as volatility is measure in three primary manners, internal (diff between high/ow of trading session), overnight (previous close to open), and general volatility (close to close).

Dec 28 2015

The end of the Investment Property Market in London is coming!

The Only Hope to Save Britain?

Posted on December 28, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

Landlords are joining together to challenge the Conservative’s (Tory) tax hike filing a suit in the high court against their tax increase on “buy-to-let” investment properties. One of the reason I have stated that Maggie Thatcher herself would have by now broke with the Conservatives and started her own third party is demonstrated by this abusive tax on property investment. The Conservatives are acting more like communists in London these days for this tax the Government introduced plans to prevent landlords offsetting mortgage interest costs against rental profits before calculating tax. So in other words, they are preventing the leverage in real estate which means this can only create a one-sided complete collapse.

David Cameron is perhaps the WORST Conservative in British History. He is doing everything possible to remain in league with Brussels. Cameron’s comment after rigging the Scottish vote to ensure Scotland could not leave the UK was shocking. He said the vote settled the question for “for a generation” revealing his pro-government posture and anti-Democratic undertone. This posture goes all the way to agree with Brussels, and Cameron’s arrogance (video of his speech) was just stunning. His promise for a referendum to leave the EU was a bullshit ploy he never expected would actually stand a chance to win.

Now Cameron is scared to death and has the bankers trying to frighten everyone if they in fact left the EU Britain would collapse, which is insane since the bankers themselves will fall if they remain inside the EU with what is on the horizon. Cameron called on the bankers to claim is Scotland left the UK the bankers would all move to London, which was propaganda as well. EVERYTHING Maggie Warned about has come true under her own party. Thatcher was always clear that a single currency was all about the federalization of Europe through the back door. Cameron should what the debate back in 1990 on this issue,

These tax changes supported by Cameron on property in London demonstrate he is no Conservative. The “buy-to-let” tax on property eliminates interest expenditures in the property business unlike all other businesses, this is retroactive not limited in its application to just future sales but to ALL existing investment properties as well as. This demonstrates how Cameron is not qualified to head any economy for he is creating the S&L Crisis for Britain. As soon as you create a one-sided market, prices implode. He is creating a situation where there will be NO BID for such properties.

We will see Britain facing a tremendous political upheaval as we approach 2017. We have warned that a year-end closing for the pound below 147 will warn the currency is preparing to crash. We have additional year-end sell signals at 146.15 and 140.50. The ONLY POSSIBLE HOPE TO SAVE BRITAIN will be Nigel Farage. Both Labour and Conservatives have simply lost their minds.

Centinel2012

De Oppresso Liber

Tag Archives: Monetary Policy

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