Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis
Re-Posted Apr 21, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
Many people have written in asking the same question:
“My question is as follows. Since we are all connected in this world. Will there be any place at all that will not be affected by a WW3? “
So far, we do not see anywhere in the developed world that will be unaffected. That does not mean it would be destroyed, just impacted economically. We are running our models all the time waiting for a glimpse of such an indication. We will certainly let everyone know if the computer finds such a place. What it appears to be is the destruction of the West’s economy. This seems to be connected largely to the collapse of socialism and government promises. It even appears that many governments are deliberately trying to instigate a war that they can use as an excuse to suspend debt payments which would allow them to deny their fiscal mismanagement for decades.
The computer has been projecting the collapse in sovereign debt on a global scale. Anyone with half a brain can see something is seriously wrong that the national debts just keep growing and we borrow money endlessly with no intention of paying anything back. You have to be a full moron to have created such a system that never ends. Even without war, we are headed into a Sovereign Debt Crisis which is inevitable.
As I have stated, interest expenditure will exceed military spending in the USA in 2019. We can see that the national debt as a percent of GDP has been steadily rising in a breakout mode since the low established during the 2nd quarter 2001. We reached a 13-year peak during the 1st quarter of 2014 and bottomed again with the Economic Confidence Model the 3rd quarter 2015 (2015.75). We have rallied once again making new highs and we are headed for the next high in 2020. Thereafter, the turning points will be 2027 and 2038.
So welcome to the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The debt turned up exactly with the 2015.75 turning point. As interest rates rise, we are on schedule for a real explosion in debt. The higher the debt to GDP rises, the greater the risk that the debt will force higher taxes resulting in lower economic growth. While everyone bashes the USA because it has the largest debt, it also has the largest economy. The debt to GDP in China exceeded 250% at the end of 2017.
So where do we go? We will be looking at that as we move forward