Socrates v Me


Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates Re-Posted Dec 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I have been following Socrates for quite a while. It certainly seems to provide the long-term view quite reliably. You said it has taught you. So I take it that is why it is AI because you did not precisely code it to do these things?

WK

ANSWER: I created Socrates to monitor everything. As a hedge fund manager, I could see how everything was connected. Read Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs for 1931 and it accurately described how a panic unfolds is led by a liquidity crisis the same as when Russian bonds collapsed in 1998 creating the fall of Long Term Capital Management.

Any mistakes are mine personally in the interpretation. That is what I mean by it has taught me a lot over the years. A lot of clients just rely on Socrates – not me personally. The arrays are probably one of the important aspects. Once again, it has nothing to do with my opinion. So many clients get familiar with it and apply their own interpretations.

Here is the array we published in July and we were touting the August/September period all year. We can see the violent thrust up and then down – the typical panic but over two months. It depends on the week it generally hits. It called for a Directional Change in October followed by another in November and then December made a new high and then retreated.

Socrates has done a good job. Once again, it is not me personally making these forecasts. As a human, we are all subject to error. Socrates is not perfect. The Global Market Watch is an ongoing project and I am stunned at how many different patterns it is coming up with. This demonstrates that complexity is an understatement. Below are the Global Market Watch reports for the 1932 low on a weekly and monthly level which was the week of July 4th, 1932.  We can see that it is not perfect. When it is saying a “New Pattern Forming” it means this is a new pattern not yet in the database. The number of patterns is approaching 100,000. Nevertheless, it did pick the 1932 low correctly. Not every day into that low. Thus, it is not a trading tool, but something to just alert you to pay attention. Nothing is ever INFALLIBLE.

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