Right v Wrong

Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates Re-Posted Dec 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, I have been following you now for a few years. You seem to be never wrong. You always say it is not your opinion. Is there some secret to how you do this? Nobody else seems to even compare. Or is it all just the computer?


ANSWER: We all are human and as such we make mistakes. I understand that the big picture with war and events seems to be never wrong. That is Socrates – not me. I have been wrong in regard to my interpretation at times, but the cycles are always correct like the ECM.

I was one of the first International Hedge Fund Managers. I had even warned Congress back in 1985 that they should merge the CFTC and SEC because complying with one meant you went to prison with the other. They forced funds management offshore. We are all connected. You cannot have gold rise to $10,000 and the dollar turns to dust and nothing else happens. The world economy is like a set of dominoes. If you get the first one right, all the rest will follow.

These people who try to forecast one market can NEVER be correct for the wildcard always comes externally. Right now, the Ukraine war is impacting the global economy and markets. You could not asses the impact by simply watching the Fed. If it were not for (1) the stupid lockdowns of COVID disrupting the supply chain, then (2) this proxy war against Russia and imposing the absurd sanctions on them when they are a key supplier around the world in many areas, then inflation would not have risen and the Fed would not be raising interest rates. Those in power simply only look in front of their nose. Every action has a ripple effect that impacts long-term events. We cannot escape that. I have designed Socrates to survive me. It is not my opinion and when I do express my opinion I state the difference. Even my interpretation of an array can be wrong, not the array.

Everything is connected. We cannot escape that. Without Socrates monitoring everything around the world and writing its own reports on over 1,000 instruments globally, there is nobody who can possibly compete with a personal opinion. The world is far too complex for an individual to see everything from a personal gut feeling.

Because I had focused on currencies from the collapse of Bretton Woods and was called into the first bank failure in 1973 because of a 7% move in currencies,  my company attracted clients from around the world. I had to see the world through everyone’s eyes – not just the dollar. In July 1985, I took the back cover of the Economist for 3 weeks announcing the end of deflation/peak in the dollar, and the reemergence of inflation, which led to the Japanese Bubble in 1989. Interest Rates peaked the very day at 1981.35. The end of that wave was 1985.65 the month of July. It was the beginning of a Private Wave which will end 2037.25.

We published charts back in Barron’s during the early 1980s showing gold in dollars compared to a basket of currencies. We ended up with the largest institutions in the world because our reports went out on telex and the communication costs per market were $225 per day. Only the biggest institutions could afford our services. Then came fax, and then email which has expanded our reach to everyone these days. But make no mistake about this. People may criticize me and others are desperate to try to prevent people from using us. It is either because they cannot compete and pretend this is my opinion rather than a computer, or they want to manipulate the markets and we just get in their way.

Secrets of the Universe

Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Dec 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Martin –
Thank you for your efforts to write your discoveries down into publications so that they will be available for the benefit of civilization after you have passed on. I am very much looking forward the “The Geometry of Time”. Like many groundbreaking thinkers of the past, you may end up being someone who suffered resistance and exploitation during your lifetime for your ideas, but who was respected for their contribution long after. And if you are given an ear by governments when this debt crisis blossoms and their backs are finally against the wall, it wont hurt to have polished manuscripts of all your work, backed up by all the the historical evidence of its validity, to pass-out to them. In fact, that may be the point where you can, late in life, make you biggest lasting contribution. If governments, central banks, and economists would give real consideration to how historically accurate your analysis of cycles has been and to your solution to the debt crisis, and if there is by-then a large number of your publications of your legacy-knowledge in circulation, your work may finally grow from ‘cultish’ adoption to more widespread adoption.

That, IMHO, would be a good thing for everyone (and for their children to-come).


REPLY: Thank you. I have learned over the years that I cannot change things. When I was called in back in 1985 and they were creating the G5 (now G20), at first I thought – Wow! I made it! Then you realize that after everyone testifies, they stand up and announce their predetermined conclusion. So I wrote to Reagan because the conclusions were nothing that anyone testified about. I was told that I went out of committee and I would never be called again. I replied, good! Who needs this!

Anyone who claims they advise the CIA or whatever, they do not listen. I have been called only because I wrote to Reagan and told them to screw off. The people they pay are just pawns. Every bill they pass needs some study and they tell you what the conclusion is today. They said back in 1985 if I was a “good boy” I could earn $5 million a year. I said no thanks.

Because I wrote to Reagan back in 1985, when the 1987 Crash took place they were forced to call me since our model forecasted that even right to the day – which was the ECM target.

Ever since we get called when they want the TRUTH rather than someone who will say whatever they need to keep the fees flowing.

Like Keynes, before the Great Depression, they considered his ideas as absurd. When it all comes crashing down, then, and only then, will they consider adopting the ECM and living with the cycle instead of fighting it. The Secret of the Universe is that absolutely EVERYTHING is cyclical.

I have three more books to finish. The Geometry of time, The ECM Book, and In the Blink of an Eye. Dealing with so many governments around the world over the past 40 years has indeed given me both a front-row seat and a unique perspective. All I can do is hope to pass this along for what comes after 2032 when we get to hit the Cntrl-Alt-Delete button on governmental structures and redesign this mess from scratch once again.

Twitter Naturally Suspended Me Before Musk

Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Nov 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Of course, Twitter naturally suspended my account for having the audacity to say that the COVID response was destroying the world economy by locking everyone down. That brain-dead decision created the disruption to the supply chain thereby creating the shortages that have set inflation in motion.

The central banks cannot possibly control inflation of this nature being shortages only amplified by the Russian sanctions. Raising rates will only add to the inflationary crisis further increasing the cost of capital reducing production even further.

I was suspended for political speech under the pretense of COVID.

It took at most 10 minutes for Musk’s team to UNLOCK my account. I just have to find the time now to start using it again – LOL.

New Interview: Energy, Russia/Ukraine, Cryptos, US Civil War, Real Estate Crash

Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media

Posted Nov 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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Interview: Collapsing Global Finance with Martin Armstrong

Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Oct 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Check out my latest interview with Laura-Lynn Tyler Thompson.

Interview: Panic Cycle, Bank of England, Inflation, Increased Death Rate

Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Oct 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Click here to listen to my latest interview: “Panic Cycle, Bank of England, Inflation, Increased Death Rate”

Schwab Getting Desperate? Martin Armstrong Agenda Contributor at WEF

Armstrong Economics Blog/WEF Re-Posted Oct 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

OK. I cannot even count the emails coming in on this one.  It seems Schwab has found someone with the same name but is just a journalist, and he has been sending this out to everyone. Look. I began our WEC in 1985. Schwab started his WEF in 1987. Marcus Vetter did the film on me, so Schwab called him and paid him to do a film on him. This has been a back-and-forth ordeal for a long time.

Socrates has been very clear. This New World Order will fail. They also think that they can conquer Russia without a nuke. They have been doing everything possible to try to overthrow Putin and actually think, as always, the people will cheer and give them a ticker-tape parade for saving them. They assumed the same scenario in Iraq, Lybia, and Syria. They really think that they walk on water.

I see international war unfolding, probably post-2024 into 2028. I do not see Schwab’s dream of a New World Order and this one-world economy ever coming off. He will try, no doubt. But we are looking at the collapse of sovereign government debt starting in Europe.

The Flight to Mexico

Armstrong Economics Blog/Mexico Re-Posted Sep 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Good afternoon Mr. Armstrong.
I have been a basic member for 6 years.
Since then I have been following your USD prediction and it is on spot despite everyone saying the contrary.
However, after seeing the EURO, Pound, Yen, and other currencies waterfall, why has the Mexican peso kept its value? I can’t find the logic.
Could you please explain?
Thanks for ALL you do.

ANSWER: This is the Array from 2020. That was the ideal of the high for the dollar and that coincided with the end of the Trump Administration. The Biden Administration has been at war with fossil fuels from the beginning, despite trying to blame Putin.

This has benefited Mexico from a value perspective, but while claiming to be on board with this Great Reset, they are not as gun-ho as Canada and the USA. Even polls at the start of 2022 in the USA were telling. Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey concluded that 45% of American voters believed the highest priority for businesses was to provide individual consumers with high-quality products and services at the lowest prices. Only 9% of voters classified climate change as the top priority for business, and only 1% said that business resources should pursue social justice as a top priority. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Our capital flow model has been pointing to tremendous inflows to Mexico since they have had the best anti-COVID mandates so there are a lot of Europeans leaving for South and Latin America and Mexico has been a primary target.

This trend appears to be continuing into 2024. As war rises in Europe and the leaders seem intent upon sacrificing their people on the altar of climate change, COVID, and Ukraine, the flight of people and capital will continue. For those who refused to get vaccines, Mexico has been the safe haven for the world.

  • There are no COVID-19 test requirements in Mexico.
  • COVID vaccination passports or certificates are not mandatory to enter Mexico.
  • There are no quarantine requirements in Mexico

TIR Introduction 1988 London

Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Sep 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong