Category Warfare Jihad

Nov 12 2017

The Saudi-Iran Brewing War


Armstrong Economics Blog/Middle East

Re-Posted Nov 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The turmoil in the Middle East has been instigated in part by fiscal mismanagement. When the money was rolling in with high oil prices, it was assumed, as always, that whatever trend is in motion will remain in motion. Consequently, the government expanded their spending assuming money would continue to flow in. When oil broke, the fiscal mismanagement has been exposed for all to see if they care to look.

Falling oil prices have decimated revenues and trade in the region. Security worries about terrorism, particularly in the US, have led to cuts in airline routes. Then there has also been a long-running diplomatic and trade impasse between Saudi Arabia and its allies on the one hand, and Qatar on the other. Now the good-old-days of easy money and rapid growth has led to concerns about over-capacity, waste, and corruption that nobody cared about when money flowed like oil.

We are witnessing the beginning of a Middle East War between the Suni and Shite where the latter opposes kings and the state should be ruled by religious leaders. Iran and its Lebanese ally, the militant Shia group Hezbollah, claim the Saudis detained Mr. Saad El-Din Rafik Al-Hariri is a Lebanese-Saudi politician who has been the Prime Minister of Lebanon since December 2016. They allege that Saudi Arabia forced his resignation. Rex Tillerson said he had received assurances that Mr. Hariri was free to leave anytime.

According to Reuters, there was “no line-up of Saudi princes or ministry officials, as would typically greet a prime minister on an official visit to King Salman”, they reported with senior sources close to Hariri and top Lebanese political and security officials said. Reuters reported that Hariri’s phone was confiscated, and the next day he was forced to resign as prime minister in a statement broadcast by a Saudi-owned TV channel.

If this is true, then we are witnessing indeed a proxy-war emerging once again in Lebanon. This is a major struggle that is, in fact, seeking to reshape the Middle East with the war building between the conservative Sunni monarchy of Saudi Arabia and Shi‘ite revolutionary Iran. These two groups have already been in conflicts that have emerged in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, where they back opposing sides. This appears to be now expanding to destabilize Lebanon, where the Saudis have opposed the Iran-backed Hezbollah group, which is Lebanon’s main political power and part of the ruling coalition. The historical profile of war involving Lebanon is as follows:

  1. First Arab-Israeli War (1948–1949), which involved Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Transjordan, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.
  2. 1958 Lebanon Crisis
  3. Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990) Syrian occupation of Lebanon and the Israeli Security Zone
  4. South Lebanon Conflict (1985–2000)
  5. July War (2006) Hezbollah and Israel Stalemate
  6. Fatah al-Islam Rebellion (2007)
  7. 2008 conflict in Lebanon Hezbollah victory
  8. Syria War spillover in Lebanon (2011-2017)

Interesting enough, there have been eight events in 69 years and that works out to 8.625-year cycle on the surface without correlating it to history. According to Reuters, Hariri had to be removed because he was unwilling to confront Hezbollah.

What we can determine, is from a cyclically perspective, 2017 was the turning point from which we should expect to see a rise in the clash between Iran and Saudi groups.

When you turn the conomy down, that is historically when tensions rise.

Nov 10 2017

Sacred Hate Speech


– There’s a lot of talk about hate speech these days. YouTube, Facebook, and others are going to eliminate hate speech. Well I wish them luck with that, but I’m going be talking about some hate I bet they’re not able to eliminate: the hate that is found within the doctrine of Islam for the unbeliever.

For instance, Quran 98:6. The unbelievers amongst the Christians, Jews, and pagans will be in the fire of Hell. These are the worst of creatures. Who’s of the worst of creatures? People such as myself. Now, I don’t know, but when I’m called the worst of creatures, does this qualify for hate speech? Then we have a piece of hate speech that’s repeated five times a day by every good Muslim. The first sura of, or chapter of, the Quran has seven verses, and Muslims repeat these every time they pray. The seventh verse says, not those who anger Allah nor those who go astray. Who are these people who angers Allah? The Jews. Who goes astray? The Christians. So constant prayer by Muslims condemns the Christians and the Jews.

Now then, let’s talk a little bit more about hate, sacred hate. Quran 48:29. Muhammad is the messenger of Allah, and those with him are the severe against the Kafirs and merciful amongst themselves. Notice that Muslims are to be severe amongst people such as myself but merciful unto themselves. This is sacred hate and sacred love. It has a technical name and is part of the ethical system of Islam. Al-Walaa wal-Baraa, hating what Allah hates, Kafirs, loving who Allah loves, Muslims.

Is this hate speech? Quran 8:55. Surely the vilest of animals in Allah’s sight are the Kafirs. The vilest of animals. Other translations of this verse are lowest of animals. So, I’m the lowest of animals according to Allah. Hate speech? I don’t know; might be.

Quran 4:144. O ye who believe, Muslims, take not Kafirs for friends rather than believers. Do you wish to offer Allah an open proof against yourself? In other words, having a Kafir as a good friend is proof for Allah that you’re not a good Muslim. Here’s another verse.

Quran 66:9. Strive hard against the Kafirs and the hypocrites, moderate Muslims, and be firm against them. Their abode is Hell, an evil refuge indeed. So Muslims are to strive against me.

Now then, it’s not just the Quran, but the Sira and the Hadith, which are the Sunnah of Muhammad, also include hate. Let’s take one example. Muhammad, in the last nine years of his life, committed 95 acts of jihad. Is this hate when he was sending out people to kill, rape, torture, and steal? I don’t know; it seems like it might be.

Islamic doctrine is filled with hate, but I am officially called a hater by CAIR, the Committee on American-Islamic Relations, and SPLC, the Southern Poverty Law Center. Why? Because of talks just like the one you’re hearing now. For this kind of talk, I’m called a hater. When I talk about how Allah hates, I’m the one who’s the hater. So join me in becoming a hater. That is, a scholar of Islam who knows what Islam says about you, the Kafir. Thank you.

Nov 9 2017

Turmoil in Middle East


Armstrong Economics Blog/Middle East

Re-Posted Nov 9, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

We have a lot of turmoil going on in Saudi Arabia. There has been the arrest of various princes and people who have been allegedly squandering money. We have the prospect of selling off the oil giant ARAMCO. We have had the ostracization of Qatar on allegations that they are supporting Iran.Now we have the line being drawn further alleging that Lebanon has been linked to Iran in this the regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The Saudi-allied Lebanese politician, Saad al-Hariri, quit as prime minister on Saturday, blaming Iran and Hezbollah in his resignation speech.

Saudi Gulf affairs minister Thamer al-Sabhan said the Lebanese government would “be dealt with as a government declaring war on Saudi Arabia” because of what he described as aggression by Hezbollah.

Nov 9 2017

Turkey & USA Relations Turn Bad


Armstrong Economic Blog/Turkey

Re-Posted Nov 8, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The relations between the USA and Turkey have turned for the worst. The USA has now restored the need for a visa after audio recordings have surfaced indicating that the evasion of Iran sanctions was approved by the Turkish President Erdogan. The US arrested Turkish-Iranian gold trader Reza Zarrab in the case of money laundering when he was acting as a middleman between the Turkish government and Iran for years. Since there is now a possibility of the involvement of Turkey in helping Iran circumvent the sanctions, relations have taken a turn for the worse.

The New York prosecutors also charged a representative of the semi-state Turkish Halkbank when he was flying through John F. Kennedy Airport in New York. They have charged him with conspiracy acting with Zarrab. It is alleged that both were doing business on behalf of the Turkish government and directly on behalf of Erdogan with Iran

Nov 9 2017

Iran & War


Armstrong Economics Blog/Middle East

Re-Posted Nov 9, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Iran has a very rich history that lends itself to tremendous insight into the long-term future of the Middle East. It was Cyrus the Great who conquered Lydia which was the birthplace of money issued by the state. The Persians adopted the practice and then continued to produce coins with the same design as the Lydians until they were changed in 510BC and the image of Darius I appears as an archer.

If we begin with the Medes, there have been 17 major overturning events of great importance. The Persians were responsible for the collapse of the Roman monetary system during the 3rd century when they captured the Roman Emperor Valerian I. Then there was the fall of Iran to the Muslim conquest. This latest revolution in 1979 has been one of rising confrontation with the west.

 

The last Iranian Revolution took place in 1979. The cycle bottomed in 2016. Here we are starting a new cycle of rising tension. Keep in mind that Persia has been a major player throughout the centuries. They have not vanished into the sunset. They are moving toward war once again.

Categories: Middle East
Nov 2 2017

Discussion with Dr Bill Warner on NYC jihad attack


Nov 1 2017

Trump Convenes Late Night National Security Briefing – NYC Terrorist Pledged Allegiance to ISIS Prior To Attack


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 31, 2017 by

Statement from the President on the Terrorist Attack in New York City:

“Our thoughts and prayers are with the victims of todays terrorist attack in New York City and their families. My Administration will provide its full support to the New York City Police Department, including through a joint investigation with the Federal Bureau of Investigation. We offer our thanks to the first responders who stopped the suspect and rendered immediate aid to the victims of this cowardly attack. These brave men and women embody the true American spirit of resilience and courage. I will continue to follow developments closely.”  – WH Link

Against the backdrop of the terrorist attack in New York City, a rather deliberate looking President Donald Trump convenes a late night national security meeting:

(LINK)

Immediately following the meeting/briefing, President Trump Tweeted: “I have just ordered Homeland Security to step up our already extreme vetting program.  Being politically correct is fine, but not for this!”    POTUS appears pissed.

Additional reporting on the terrorist:

The New York Post is reporting the driver who plowed into a group of people on Tuesday, killing 8, left behind handwritten notes pledging loyalty to ISIS along with an image of an ISIS flag inside his vehicle.

Sayfullo Saipov, 29, had the notes written in Arabic inside his Home Depot rental truck along with a picture of the ISIS flag, according to law enforcement sources.  The handwritten notes indicated that he had pledged allegiance to the terror group, the sources said.  (read more)

VIA FOX NEWS –  The man suspected of plowing a truck through a crowded bike lane in New York on Tuesday is 29 years old, from Uzbekistan with a green card, Fox News has confirmed.

Police have identified Sayfullo Saipov as the driver of the rented pickup truck who killed eight people and injured at least 11 more in the attack in near the World Trade Center in Lower Manhattan.

Saipov drove a rented pickup truck from Home Depot through a crowded bike path for several blocks before finally crashing into a yellow school bus near Chambers and West Street, police said.

After exiting the vehicle, Saipov yelled “Allahu Akbar” and waived around some type of weapon, which authorities believe to be an airsoft gun or a B.B. gun. The suspect was shot twice by police and taken into custody. He remains in the hospital and is expected to survive his wounds.

[…]  According to the Associated Press, the suspect is believed to have rented the truck about an hour before the attack.

Authorities discovered that Saipov had a Florida license and he’s been connected to an address in the Tampa area. But he was living in New Jersey as recently as this summer and working as an Uber driver, a friend of Saipov told Fox News.  (read more)

 

Oct 31 2017

Political Correctness Running Amok? – Did CBS News Intentionally Lighten Skin Color of NYC Terrorist?…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 31, 2017 by

Normally this might be one of those things to pass off as just accidental or part of rushing a story to the headlines.  However, in this instance CBS immediately reported an exclusive picture of New York Terrorist Sayfullo Habibullaevic Saipov.  TWEET  and WEBSITE

On the left is the actual picture of 29-year-old Saipov; on the right is the version of the picture that CBS broadcast, used in newscasts and also put on their website.  Notice any difference?

(CBS TWEET LINK)

 

(CBS Website and BROADCAST Link)

(Side by Side Comparison)

Additionally, it was reported by eye-witnesses, and confirmed by law enforcement, that during the attack Sayfullo Habibullaevic Saipov yelled “allahu akbar“.

“Allahu akbar” is a familiar phrase shouted by Jihadists during all terrorist attacks.  Everyone knows what it means when proclaimed.  However, CNN refused to note what was shouted during the terrorist attack, instead look at what they broadcast (chyron):

But wait, it gets better, or worse really…  The next example of political correctness is even more gobsmacking. The CNN reporter in New York refused to even describe the suspect.

WATCH:

Oct 27 2017

The Near Enemy, the Silicon Valley Enforcers


We have two enemies in our struggles– the near enemy apologists for Sharia and the far enemy, Islam. The Silicon Valley billionaires now support Sharia by censoring its critics.

Oct 24 2017

Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman Al Saud: “We Will Eradicate Extremism Very Soon”…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree on October 24, 2017 by

Today the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud, son of King Salman, ally to U.S. President Trump, guardian of the Holy Mosques, delivered remarks during a conference on investment that stunned the regional geopolitical world.

Of course for most CTH readers, who understood the larger dynamic behind Trump and T-Rex’s sword dancing diplomacy, this doesn’t come as a surprise. However, for the larger U.S. electorate, perhaps they will begin to understand the positive consequences downstream from President Trump’s regional policy.

The scale of consequence was clearly evident in the expression of Maria Bartiromo.

.

Five months ago we discussed the significance of the pageantry and scale of the royal reception for President Trump and the U.S. delegation.  Specifically how the structure of the trip was reflective of much more than a singular presidential visit to a nation and region of geo-strategic importance.

The word “reset” is frequent amid media reporting of the Saudi trip but few people have followed the recent regional history to thoroughly understand what exactly is being reset.

~ President Donald Trump and Saudi King Salman – Joint Statement.

President Trump was recognized and respected by the regional Arab coalition for his specific approach and outward worldview which is based on eye-to-eye diplomacy.

Through the contacts, discussions, emissary meetings and individual diplomatic engagements over the past six months, the Arab region members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) -and specifically Saudi Arabia- were overjoyed to find a fresh U.S. perspective based on mutual respect.

The pageantry/scale of the royal reception was directly proportional to the scale of respect being shown by the regional partners toward the worlds largest and most influential leader.

Around the world no-one doubts who is the biggest most significant nation; the size of the U.S. economy speaks for itself. It does not need to be proven – it is self evident.

What is different with the Trump administration, as they engage each nation, is the change in nationalistic outlook and specifically foreign policy therein toward other national leaders as independent sovereign representatives – with respect to their individual cultures and norms.

No longer is the U.S. approaching nations from an inherent need to prove we are ‘better than’, or leverage our interests into their neighborhood.

The expressed policy outlook of President Trump is for the United States to be the best; and through our actions and behaviors to lead on global initiatives that show how we define ourselves and our values. This approach is specifically centered around a policy position stating we do not need to demand acceptance of those values, and we respect independent nations’ that may hold values or beliefs not identical to our own.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has cultured this approach throughout each of his diplomatic engagements. The U.S. leans forward on all Trump policy objectives through the perspective of our national needs first; but that does not necessarily mean we demand or force other nations into a compliance mindset.

Compliance implies aversarialism. President Trump and Secretary Tillerson do not view international engagements as necessarily adversarial.

The U.S. can engage eye-to-eye with the same level of respect to the smallest as we exhibit toward the largest (our own size does not need to be part of the equation, it is self evident), and work policy objectives toward the point of mutual benefit. If the engaged nation does not receive benefit from the policy, we do not demand an acceptance of it; and more importantly we express both an understanding and a respect of their position and inability.

This Trumpian approach, a willingness not to undermine and to accept the partners downside position within any policy, is grounded on inherent truth.

President Trump and Secretary Tillerson openly accept and admit when the engaged partner will be unable to meet our defined terms; we discuss what actions can be take to remove the inherent obstacle in the future; we make a commitment (or not) toward removing that obstacle; we shake hands and we part company retaining the position of friendship and optimism for the potential of re-engagement at a later date.

In all recent previous administrations there was an implied message that engagement with the United States came with terms and conditions that might be antithetical to the sovereign nations’ best interests. If you want “X” (their need) you must deliver “Y” (our need), and the “Y” might be something which creates conflict or tension.

President Trump and Secretary Tillerson ask about the impact of “Y”, the possibility of the downside, prior to making a decision on fulfillment of the request (“X”), but the inquiry does not necessarily preclude our willingness to deliver.

This dynamic is unique to the engaged nation because no member of the Trump Administration’s policy team is approaching any of the policies from a position of their own inherent politics. Team Trump, writ large, represents America’s best interests, not the political construct of America’s best interests. [Coincidentally this approach is why Trump has so much domestic opposition]

This non-political approach and respect, exhibits honesty within the transaction. Yes, both Tillerson and Trump approach politics through the transactional prism, it’s what deal-makers do.

This non-political approach is what causes leaders like Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi make the following remarks:

Abdel Fattah al-Sisi: “I first saw the campaign of his excellency President Trump, and I listened to his speech of the neccessity of facing and confronting terrorism all over the world; that he is a great personality and a unique individual, and that he will find great success.”

“I fully trust the capabilities of President Trump, and I have full conviction that he can do things, exert efforts, that very few people can do. And he can succeed in so many fields that others cannot. I trust him wholeheartedly.”

“I followed all his announcements through his campaign, he has a very unique personality and administration, and now I’m speaking with full confidence of unprecedented success for him. He is seeking the interests of the United States and the American people in a very clear manner, and a very direct manner. And a very strong manner as well.”

“His true will is a very strong will to counter terrorism and extremism in the world; and that is a very strong commitment from his excellency the president, and in addition I am very supportive with full force in facing this terrorism.”

“There is a true understanding to the realities in the region, and there is a seriousness and responsible actions in facing extremism and terrorism in the region, and that’s a wonderful thing indeed. There is nothing better than to counter evil.” (link)


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