11:00pm Update Hurricane Florence – Slight Weakening as Storm Stays On Predicted Course…


According to the 11:00pm advisory Hurricane Florence has weakened to a Category 2 storm with winds at 110mph.  Forward speed is still around 17mph and it is located approximately 280 miles east south-east of Wilmington North Carolina. [16 hrs away]

Time Lapse Forecast Map Available Here

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected Thursday night and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina on Thursday, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday night and Friday. A slow motion over eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night and Saturday. (read more)

(Link to National Hurricane Center)

Hurricanes – Mostly The Aftermath…


As many long-time readers will know, we do have a little bit more than average experience dealing with the aftermath of hurricanes.  I ain’t no expert in the before part; you need to heed the local, very local, professionals who will guide you through any preparation, and neighborhood specific guidelines, for your immediate area.

But when it comes to the ‘after part’, well, as a long-time CERT recovery member perhaps I can guide you through the expectation and you might find some value.  Consider this little word salad a buffet, absorb what might be of value pass over anything else.

When the winds reach around 40mph, the utility company will likely, proactively, shut down the power.  This makes things a heck of a lot safer in the aftermath; and much easier and safer during the rebuild.  Don’t expect the power to be turned back on until it is safe.

Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary.  There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region.

Telephone and power poles, yes, even the concrete ones, can, and likely will, snap like toothpicks.  There’s a sound when you are inside a hurricane that you can never forget.  It ain’t a howl, it’s a roar.  A damn scary roar that just won’t quit…. it will… eventually, but at the time you are hearing it, it doesn’t seem like it will ever end.

A constant, and pure rage of scary wind that doesn’t ebb and flow like normal wind and storms… hurricane wind just starts and stays, sometimes for hours.  Relentless and damn scary…. it just won’t let up.  And then, depending on her irrelevant opinion toward your insignificant presence, hopefully she stops.

Then silence.  No birds. No frogs. No crickets. No sound.

Nature goes mute.  It’s weird.

We have no idea how much ambient noise is around us, until it stops.

Oh, if she wants, she’ll keep dumping buckets on you as she wanders away.  Buckets. Not pails, garbage can sized buckets.  After the scour, yup, nature too has a rinse cycle.

If your town, city or hamlet is not underwater, there will be convoys coming to construct a pre-planned electricity grid recovery process.  Convoys from every city, town and state from the east-coast to the mid-west.  A glorious melding of dirty fingernails all arriving for the meet-up.   Depending on your proximity to the bigger picture objectives at hand, you will cherish their arrival.

But first, there will be an assessment.  The convoys will stage at pre-determined locations using radios for communication. Street-by-street everything needs to be evaluated prior to thinking about beginning to rebuild a grid.  Your patience within this process is needed; heck, it ain’t like you’ve got a choice in the matter…. so just stay positive.

Meanwhile, you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your neighborhood.

It will all be cattywampus.

Trees gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.

I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e.

Stay away from power-lines.

Be entirely prepared to be lost in your own neighborhood and town for days, weeks, and even months.  Unknown to you – your subconscious mind is like a human GPS mapping system.  When that raging Florence takes away the subconscious landmarks I guarantee you – you are gonna get lost, make wrong turns, miss the exit etc.

It’s kinda funny and weird at the same time.

Your brain is wired to turn left at the big oak next to the Church, and the road to your house is likely two streets past the 7-11 or Circle-k. You don’t even notice that’s how you travel around town; that’s just your brain working – it is what it is.

Well, now the big oak is gone; so too is the Circle-K and 7-11 signs.  Like I said, everything is cattywampus.  Your brain will need to reboot and rewire.  In the interim, you’re gonna get lost… don’t get frustrated.

No street signs. Likely no stop signs.  No traffic lights.

Remember, when it is safe to drive, every single intersection must be treated like a four-way stop…. and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION.  Even the major intersections.

You’ll need to override your brain tendency to use memory in transit.  You’ll need to pay close attention and watch for those who ain’t paying close attention.  Travel sparingly, it’s just safer.

Check on your-self first, then your neighbors. It don’t matter if you’ve never said a word to the guy in the blue house before.  It ain’t normalville now.

Break out of your box and check on the blue house down the street too.  In the aftermath, there’s no class structure.  Without power, the big fancy house on the corner with a pool is just a bigger mess.  Everyone is equally a mess.

The first responders in your neighborhood are YOU.

You, the wife, your family, Mrs. Wilson next door; Joe down the street; Bob’s twin boys and the gal with the red car are all in this together.  If you don’t ordinarily cotton to toxic masculinity you will worship it in the aftermath of a hurricane.  Git-r-done lives there.

Don’t stand around griping with a 40′ tree blocking the main road to your neighborhood.  Figure out who’s got chainsaws and set about clearing the road.  If every neighborhood starts clearing their own roadways, the recovery crews can then move in for the details.

Stage one focuses on major arteries… then secondary… then neighborhood etc.  It’s a process.  Oh, and don’t get mad if your fancy mailbox is ploughed-over by a focused front end loader who is on a priority mission to clear a path.  Just deal with it.

Phase-1 recovery is necessarily, well, scruffy…. we’re just moving and managing the mess; not trying to clean it up yet.  It’ll be ok.

Keep a joyous heart filled with thankfulness; and if you can’t muster it, then just pretend. Don’t be a jerk.  You will be surrounded by jerks….  elevate yourself.  If you need to do a few minutes of cussing, take a walk.  Keep your wits about you and stay calm.

Now, when the recovery teams arrive…. If you pass a line-man, pole-digger or crew say thanks.  Just simple “thanks”.  Wave at them and give them a thumbs-up. No need to get all unnecessarily familiar, a simple “thank you for your help” will generally suffice.  You know, ordinary people skills.

Many of these smaller crews will be sleeping in cots, or in their trucks while they are working never-ending shifts.  If you eventually start getting power back, and see a crew in a restaurant, same thing applies… “thanks guys”.  If you can pay their tab, do it.  If you can pay their tab without them knowing, even better.

Same goes for the tanker truckers. The convenience stores with gas pumps are part of the priority network.  Those will get power before other locales without power.  Fuel outlets are a priority.  Hospitals, first responders, emergency facilities, fuel outlets, then comes commercial and residential.

Remember, you are the first responder for your neighborhood.  Don’t quit.

Recovery is a process.  Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days, weeks and even months.  Take care of your family, friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.

It’ll be ok.

It might be a massive pain in the a**, but in the end, it’ll be ok.

√Andrew

√Jeanne

√Frances

√Ivan

√Charley

√Irma

Keep a good thought.  Who knows, we might even end up shaking hands.

It’ll be OK.  Promise.

Washington Post: President Trump is “Complicit” in Creating Hurricane Florence…


Just when you think we might have reached peak Trump Derangement Syndrome; along comes an even bigger nut to raise the bar on crazy:

Tweet LinkArticle Link

Apparently President Trump is such a significant presence he now commands control over planetary meteorology.  Who knew?

Hailstone not Snow


The report of a reader saying it snowed in Rome was an incorrect translation. It was HailstonesThe same thing took place in Calgary. Although strange, they are not unknown even in summer. Hailstones are large, layered ice particles, often spherical in shape. They are produced by thunderstorms having strong, tilted updrafts. Hailstorms form within an unusually unstable air mass. In the case of Calgary, it could have been set off by the wildfires combining with Volcanic particle

New Study Islands are Growing not Sinking with Global Warming Conspiracy


This theory of Global Warming and the oceans will rise and places like New York City and Miami will sink beneath the waves is just so childish it is beyond contemplation that anyone coming up with such a theory would ever understand a complex system. They must have cut class during Physic probably because it was too far above their head. I have written before that the real experts on the oceans and how they function were at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. It was in 1956 when they published A theory of ice ages by Maurice Ewing and William Donn, which these Global Conspiracy theorists obviously never read.  The stupid assumption that if the ice all melted the oceans would rise demonstrates they are incapable of understanding the planetary forces or are too corrupt to come up with a theory that is sufficient to convince weak-minded politicians.

These pretend scientists have been surprised by the recent findings, which show that some islands in the Pacific have actually grown by almost one-third in size over the past 60 years and have not sunk beneath the waves as predicted by the Global Warming conspiracy crowd. Indeed, the island chains to have increased in land mass such as Tuvalu and neighboring Kiribati. Both islands have attracted attention at last year’s Copenhagen climate summit. In this new study, researchers compared aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images of 27 islands taken since the 1950s. There were only four islands which had decreased in size despite the local sea level rises of almost five inches in that time. These were mostly uninhabited. On the contrary, 23 islands remained the same or grew in mass. There were seven islands in Tuvalu group which actually grew as much as 30%. Melting ice will never result in the water rising for they simply do not understand how ice ages are even created. You need the ice to melt to create the evaporation that then comes down as snow and builds the glaciers.

Society was reborn from the Dark Ages BECAUSE of climate. This was the Medieval Warming period. However, the cycle of climate change turned downward and by the end of the 17th century, the climate turned bitterly cold. These Global Warming conspiracy crowd or con artists, also fail to correlate (or deliberately ignore) the impact of volcanoes as the one during the 17th century that created one of the greatest Russian famines in its history between 1601–1603. The weather began to turn against society again going into the end of the 17th century. The years 1693 and 1694 resulted in a major famine in France. The harvest of 1693 had been more than mediocre. The winter of 1694 was very hard, followed by a spring without rain. As of June, grain reserves were exhausted in most French cities and the registers of that period record a death toll of up to 35%.

1709 Deep FreezeEurope was rapidly turning colder much faster than expected during the 17th century. That sharp decline was a real global cooling period for Europe that culminated in what became known as the Deep Freeze of 1709. In the first few months of 1709 remained in a deep freeze that again wiped out food supplies. People were ice-skating on the canals of Venice, which again was highly unusual to see such cold that far south on the water. People could cross the Baltic Sea on horseback because it was completely frozen! You could not ring a church bell because it would shatter it was that cold.

We need to pay attention and at least prepare. We are in climate change, but it is not going to get warmer. The extreme volatility will produce draoughts with hot summers and extremely cold winters.

 

Winter Arrived Snowing in Rome – Climatic Change events result Historically in an increase in Violence


COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong; It is snowing here in Rome already. This looks like a bitterly cold winter this year as you said.

Roberto

COMMENT #2: Marty; I live just down the street from your old place in Kensington. It is snowing already. I have never seen it turn so cold so fast.

Cheers from the new Winter Wonderland.

PG

REPLY: It does not look good for weather again. Well, it was so hot during the summer creating a drought the Hunger Stones appeared, and now we have snow already. This is the same patterns historically that ended up resulting in the defeat of Napoleon. The crazy thing is this was easily predictable. I warned about the solar minimum back in 2015. This has been the fastest plunge into solar minimum that anyone has seen to date. Last year in 2017, there was extreme cold down all the way into Spain where food is grown for winter in Europe killing the crops.

The Atlantic current is slowing down dramatically. A team of scientists says it is the weakest in 1600 years. Naturally, they attribute it to humans who are driving their cars and heating their homes which is melting the ice in Greenland and that is fresh water which is lighter than seawater. They are predicting, of course, it could stop altogether in a few decades. The only problem is the classic one. They ignore cycles and assume whatever trend is in motion will stay in motion to the point it will stop completely. If that were the case, then we would probably go into a White Earth Effect and we should be all dead anyhow so perhaps the planet will heal itself when we are all gone. So they are predicting something that has no historical foundation since it has never happened before.

Here is a chart from an important study derived from the ice core samples in Greenland. A research team from Japan, France, Denmark, and the USA reconstructed the temperature history of the last 4,000 years in the center of Greenland with the help of ice cores and found that we are by no means creating any global warming that has never happened before in history. The basis of this chart was created from the air bubbles trapped in the ice. They were able to calculate the temperature at the snow surface by analyzing argon and nitrogen isotope ratios. This temperature has averaged -30.7 ° C over the past 4,000 years.

One thing to understand is that the peak in the Roman economy is regarded to have taken place with the Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius (161-180AD). We see a huge spike down in temperature which corresponds to the peak in the Roman Empire which Edward Gibbons drew the line for the beginning of the Decline & Fall. It is clear from contemporary sources that the climate in Europe was turning extremely cold. By 170AD, Marcus Aurelius was battling the Germanic attempts to invade the south most likely due to this climate change. He wrote his Mediataions that he desperately needed to keep his mind distracted from the bitter cold at night. He even sent his children home to Rome to live with their great-great-aunt Matidia because Marcus thought the evening air was far too cold for them. He even asked his friend for “some particularly eloquent reading matter, something of your own, or Cato, or Cicero, or Sallust or Gracchus—or some poet, for I need distraction, especially in this kind of way, by reading something that will uplift and diffuse my pressing anxieties.” id/ Ad Antoninum Imperator 4.1 (= Haines 1.300ff), qtd. and tr. Birley, Marcus Aurelius, 120.

We know that from about 160 to 290 there was a period of climate cooling which dramatically impacted the northwestern provinces of the Empire and most likely inspired the initial invasions of the Germanic tribes. There was clearly dramatic swings in the climate. We have an extreme cold reported by Marcus Aurelius and this is accompanied by a drought, which is also like the patterns we are witnessing today. We also know that the Roman Emperor Elagabalus (218-222AD) during the third century just 50 years later ordered that snow was to be brought down from the mountains via donkey trains and placed in the garden next to his villa to keep cool during the summer. We have this period of extreme cold and extreme heat.

We also know from contemporary accounts that the ancient Egyptians hung damp reeds over windows and placed water-filled pots in hallways. As the water evaporated, it would cool the air. They also figured out that channeling air through stones resulted in the stones absorbing the heat and the air was cooled. I felt this myself when I climbed into the Great Pyramid and made it to the King’s Chamber. I thought it was air-conditioned at first and then realized it was an ancient system that still worked.

Dendrochronology, the science of dating events, environmental change, and archaeological artifacts by using the characteristic patterns of annual growth rings in timber and tree trunks, indicates that there was a severe drought which began in 338AD and persisted until 377AD. This event contributed to the fall of Rome after the recovery of the period of Constantine I (309-337AD) who died in 337AD.

 

Pope Leo in 452AD meets Attila the Hun

It was this severe drought that forced the nomadic pastoral federation of Huns to seek pastures and began to invade Europe to the west and south. Their attacks north of the Black Sea drove the Goths to flee into the Roman Empire and ultimately to attack Rome itself. Increased climate variability from coincided with the decline of the Western Roman Empire and its ultimate collapse in 476AD. For the Eastern Roman Empir,e there is an evidence for a regional prolonged drought in modern central Turkey also began in during the 5th century.

Hopefully, one day our approach to history will start a major exploration to understand history in a new way. What our computer has accomplished on correlating all of these trends is really unsurpassed. Looking at the global picture of climate and economic change provides a much greater precision in identifying some of the causal relationships underlying societal change that many did not quite understand. The issue of how climatic change cycles contribute to the disruptions affecting human societies and ultimately causing changes in the political system structures is something that has always attracted a great deal of attention in our research. What jumps out from the correlation is that climatic change events have resulted in an increase in violence over contested resources sparking great migrations and invasions

Napoleon was Defeated by Volcanoes


QUESTION: I recently read that the weather defeated Napoleon created by a Volcanic Winter in 1815. It seems to have lined up with your chart on the decline in the energy of the sun and sunspot activity. Would you agree with that?

PH

ANSWER: Oh yes. The theory that Napoleon lost at Waterloo was the result of weather because he delayed the use of his canons. I agree with that theory which has been reported by the BBC. However, that is Waterloo and its relation to the eruption of Tambora. Our computer also in correlating war and weather with the economy revealed that Napoleon also lost when he invaded Russia because of volcano eruptions.  Napoleon began his invasion of Russia on the 24th of June 1812. He was no fool. He waited for winter to be over. He was planning to take the city of Moscow in July. Instead, his army was devasted by winter and global cooling thanks to a volcano. The Russians abandoned Moscow and set it ablaze. When Napoleon entered Moscow, he assumed he would get an offer of peace. Nothing came. He eventually retreated and that was devastating. Napoleon had invaded with 680,000 men and retreated by November 1812 with only 27,000 effective soldiers remaining.

There is no question about it. When we correlate everything, you begin to see history in a whole new light. Napoleon was defeated by the Mini Ice Age. The Hunger Stones also marked the year 1811 as a drought. While this is one year prior to the eruption in the West Indies in 1812, there is what has been called the 1808/1809 Mystery Volcanic Eruption which seems to have set in motion a Mini Ice Age during the early 1800s. This was a monumental volcanic eruption in the VEI 6 range which appears to have taken place in late 1808. This event preceded the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora (VEI 7) which produced the Year Without a Summer in 1816. Napoleon was defeated really by Volcanoes.This is my concern for the future going into 2024

Florida Orange Trees Dying from Cold?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Is it true that the Global Cooling has been creeping lower and lower into Northern Florida that the citrus crops are being affected to the point that they are starting to switch to olives?

DT

ANSWER: Yes, that is true. Florida here has not been devasted by the heat as up north. However, at the same time, during the winter it did get cold enough that some of the plant I have died. This is happening to the citrus trees. There has been a shift to planting olive trees which can withstand the cold. This seems to be part of the cycle behind climate change and global cooling

Three Volcanoes Erupt at Same Time & New Evidence of Gamma Ray Intensity


 

A number of people have written in that they enjoyed the phrase I made up that we are like a pebble at the bottom of the ocean with no clue what lies above our heads. I have stressed that our computer correlated volcanoes with the decline in solar sunspot activity. What has also been strange is that further research has revealed that when we go into Solar Minimum, this is also simultaneously the maximum output of Gamma Rays. I offer no explanation as to why volcanoes tend to erupt more during solar minimum. My role here is simply to correlate everything to understand the trends set in motion behind the economy. Weather and shortage of food have been major factors in economic history setting off migrations and extinctions.

Gamma Rays are the most energetic form of light and are produced by the hottest regions of the universe. They are also produced by such violent events as supernova explosions or the destruction of atoms, and by less dramatic events, such as the decay of radioactive material in space. Things like supernova explosions (the way massive stars die), neutron stars and pulsars, and black holes are all sources of celestial gamma-rays. Interestingly very few gamma-rays actually make it through the atmosphere. Gamma-rays can strike the material and produce ‘secondary’ particles which are more penetrating and can go through the material. Consequently, the majority of the cosmic rays that actually reach the Earth’s surface are ‘secondary cosmic rays’, produced by gamma-rays. Primary cosmic rays are high energy particles (such are protons and the nuclei from iron atoms) that are moving at speeds very close to the speed of light. These primary cosmic rays are mostly deflected by the Earth’s magnetic field. If Earth didn’t have a magnetic field, there would be many more primary cosmic rays hitting the atmosphere, and many more secondary cosmic rays hitting us and penetrating .the Earth itself.

These waves are penetrating electromagnetic radiation of a kind arising from the radioactive decay of atomic nuclei. Gamma Rays are beyond X-rays and will obviously penetrate deep into the Earth. This may be pointing to the cause of an increase in volcanic activity. The Earth’s magnetic field serves to deflect most of the solar wind, whose charged particles would otherwise strip away the ozone layer that protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation. According to scientists’ best estimates, the Earth’s magnetic field is now weakening around 10 times faster than initially thought, losing approximately 5% of its strength every decade. But they don’t really know why, or what that means for our planet. This could be the precursor to the poles flipping.

 

 

Here we are in August 2018 and three volcanoes in Indonesia erupt all at the same time. The three volcanoes that are rumbling and spewing ash are Mount Sinabung (pictured here), Gamalama, and Rinjani. In fact, this year we now have 34 major volcanoes erupting worldwide compared to 12 last year and 11 back in 2015. In the Ring of Fire, we now have 6 volcanoes erupting this year with another 5 in Indonesia alone. There are now 4 erupting in South America, 5 in the Mexico/Carribean and Central America. In Africa and the Indian Ocean there are now 4 volcanoes erupting and in the Pacific Ocean, there are are another 6 erupting. In Europe, we have one in Italy erupting in the Eolian Islands – Mt Stromboli. Lastly, there is even one in Antarctica melting ice.

While we have had extreme heat in Europe, now there is early snowfall in Russia and in the Alps. Then Melbourne Australia is freezing. Meanwhile, we have Mexican farmers blaming German auto manufacturers for creating a drought. Perhaps when they figure out that this is a natural cycle they will file a lawsuit against the various churches, temples, and synagogs that represent God on Earth. Someone has to be blamed!

It certainly looks like we are headed to a commodity boom between 2020 and 2024

Flipping of the Poles Rapid of Gradual?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read your Mayan report and it was fascinating. Do you think that these strange anomalies of places that are cool experiencing hot summers and where it should be hot have been getting cool are a prelude to climate change that may be the preparation for the flipping of the poles?

EK

ANSWER: Nobody knows for sure. There are a number of scientists who are very concerned that we are overdue for the reversal of the poles. Nobody really knows the consequences since we are talking about a period beyond recorded history. One theory is that the magnetic field is what shelters us from the worse of the sun. The magnetic field has been declining in magnitude. This is what many fear is the real cause behind the appearance of climate change.

We were given the data to run it through our computer and it came up with a cycle of 720,000 years. We are clearly overdue and how do you measure that is hard to say – weeks, months, years, decades, or centuries? It has been postulated that such a flip will be devastating for our shield against harmful radiation from the sun will be diminished. Some have even raised the issue that this could be a factor in mass extinctions.

What I can say is that based upon our models, the pole flip will be rapid, not gradual. The prelude may appear gradual as we see now with a 5% decline per century. However, we will cross an invisible line and then it will flip instantaneous not gradual. It will act like a pot of boiling water. It will be no means be a linear progression.