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Mar 6 2018

Foreign Investment into Canada Has Collapsed by 26% in 2017


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada

Re-Posted Mar 6, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Foreign direct investment into Canada has absolutely plunged during 2017 to the lowest since 2010. There has been an effort to stop the sale of any property to foreign investors mainly from China. On top of that, there has been also a collapse in capital investment into the oil industry. There are fears also rising about an exodus of capital from the nation’s oil patch and worries about the fate of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Direct investment into Canada declined by a stunning 26% dropping to merely $33.8 billion during 2017, according to Statistics Canada. Capital inflows have declined for the second year with the major high in 2015 in accordance with our Economic Confidence Model. The investment that did take place was from reinvested earnings of existing operations. Net foreign purchases of Canadian businesses turned negative for the first time in a decade. This means that foreign companies sold more Canadian businesses than they bought. The political shift in Canada to the left is also being seen as a political risk for the years ahead. A monthly closing BELOW 7305 on the futures will signal the collapse of the C$ is underway once again.

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Economic Subjects • Tagged Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Big Government, Cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Credit, CRS, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Debt, debt bubbles, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic Collapse, Economic Confidence Model, economics, Edelman Trust Barometer, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, glazier’s fallacy, Gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Keynesian Economics, Marxism, Money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Panics, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, police asset forfeiture, Pre-Pay VAT, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, The Forecaster, the Great Depression, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, Wealth tax
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Mar 4 2018

CalPERS on the Brink of Insolvency


Armstrong Economics Blog/Pension Crisis

Re-Posted Mar 4, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

The largest public pension fund in the United States is the California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS) for civil servants. California is in a state of very serious insolvency. We strongly advise our clients to get out before it is too late. I have been warning that CalPERS was on the verge of insolvency. I have warned that they were secretly lobbying Congress to seize all 401K private pensions and hand it to them to be managed. Mingling private money with the public would enable them to hold off insolvency a bit longer. Of course, CalPERS cannot manage the money they do have so why should anyone expect them to score a different performance with private money? Indeed, they would just rob private citizens to pay the pensions of state employees and politicians.

CalPERS has been making investments to be politically correct with the environment rather than looking at projects that are economically based. Then, CalPERS has been desperate to cover this and other facts up to deny the public any transparency. Then, because stocks they thought were overpriced last year, they moved to bonds buying right into the Bond Bubble. Clearly, California’s economy peaked right on target and ever since there has been a steady migration of residents out of the state.

Meanwhile, Governor Jerry Brown has been more concerned about bucking the trend with Trump effectively threatening treason against the Constitution. The insolvency at CalPERS has exceeded $100,000 owed by every private citizen in California to government employees. It was $93,000 that every Californian owed back in 2016 for their state employees. In January 2017, Jerry Brown wanted a 42% increase in gas taxes to bailout CalPERS. California is an extremely liberal state – but that means they are also LIBERAL in spending the FUTURE earning of residents on public employees.

The pension crisis at CalPERS is getting worse by the day. The State looks to be totally bankrupt by 2021-2022. CalPERS has just decided to increase the contribution of local governments and cities to their fund. The cities say they are approaching bankruptcy because of rising subsidies, but CalPERS itself is approaching insolvency. The problem is that there really is no honest reform in sight. The choice is clear – CUT pension benefits of government employees or RAISE TAXES! CalPERS simply needs a bailout and very soon. It looks like they are hunting for ways to tax whatever they can for it only now about state employees getting their piece of your future income. This is a trend that will bring down Western society as a whole – the Sovereign Debt Crisis of untold proportions.

Board Member Steve Westly even told The Mercury News that a bailout was needed and soon. Currently, CalPERS manages approximately $350 billion of future pension claims of its members. Recently, CalPERS passed an amendment to the statutes, which resulted in higher contributions for the California municipalities. The amount of contributions has been increased several times over the past few years and this time the cities do not appear to be able to handle the increased costs. With the Trump tax reform, the real incompetence of local government is coming to a head.

Once CalPERS was 100% funded with assets under management. In fact, they had a surplus in the good old days before Quantitative Easing. Right now, the system no longer has more than two-thirds of future claims covered. CalPERS itself expects an annual return of 7% on its financial investments when it needs 8% minimum. Most pension funds run by the States are insolvent or on the brink of financial disaster. This is what I have been warning about that the Quantitative Easing set the stage for the next crisis – the Pension Crisis. The Illinois Pension Fund needs to borrow up to $107 billion to meet its payment obligations with no prayer of repayment. Promises to state employees are over the top and off the charts. This is why Janet Yellen at the Fed kept trying to raise rates stating that interest rates had to be “normalized” for this was the crisis she knew was coming. And guess what – Europe is even worse and Draghi will not raise rates for fear that government will be unable to fund themselves. The ECB is creating a vast European Pension Crisis while trying to keep member state governments on life-support. It has purchased 40% of all sovereign debt and appears trapped and cannot reverse this process. The choice is pensions collapse or state collapse.

There is NO WAY out of this crisis. The portfolio would have to be completely restructured and benefits reduced. Jerry Brown will do everything in his power to raise taxes and fees to try to hold CalPERS together. That is by no means a long-term solution. If you can transfer to one of the 7 states without income state – do it NOW before it is too late.

Get out of town before you cannot sell property anymore!

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Economic Subjects, Important • Tagged Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Big Government, Cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Credit, CRS, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Debt, debt bubbles, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic Collapse, Economic Confidence Model, economics, Edelman Trust Barometer, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, glazier’s fallacy, Gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Keynesian Economics, Marxism, Money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Panics, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, police asset forfeiture, Pre-Pay VAT, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, The Forecaster, the Great Depression, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, Wealth tax
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Mar 3 2018

Hyperinflation Unfolds Only When Public Confidence Collapses


Armstrong Economics Blog/Hyperinflation

Re-Posted Mar 3, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I read your piece on South Africa and you are the only person to explain that the hyperinflation in Zimbabwe took place after they stole all the land from the white farmers. You really turn over every stone in your research.

My hat is off to you sir.

MH

ANSWER: Well I was not aware of that, but it does not surprise me. Everyone attributes hyperinflation to the simple increase in the supply of money. I have stressed countless times that hyperinflation unfolds ONLY when people NO LONGER TRUST THE GOVERNMENT! The Zimbabwe hyperinflation ended the same way as Germany. Once Zimbabwe expropriated white farmers without compensation, public confidence collapsed. Nobody would invest in Zimbabwe after that. This is what South Africa now risks. Nobody will invest in a country that does not respect property rights. This is what we call COUNTRY or POLITICAL RISK! 

The French hyperinflation took place with the assignats, which were issued in conjunction with the revolution. They were so interested in robbing the rich and even the Catholic Church, that the confidence in banks and the government collapsed.

I have also shown numerous times that the famous German hyperinflation followed the Communist Revolution in 1918, which established the Weimar Republic. Once again, if you had any wealth, you hoarded it. People held foreign coins as the alternative to German currency.

In Venezuela, once more it is the collapse in the confidence of government that compels it to produce more and more money to pay its troops. This is the net effect once again when people no longer trust the government and wealth is hoarded using foreign currency – in this case, American dollars.


I have also make it abundantly clear that Japan LOST its ability to even issue coins for 600 years because, with each new emperor, he devalued the outstanding money supply to worth just 10% of his new coins. Once again, people lost faith in Japanese coins and began to use Chinese and bags of rice. It is ALWAYS the CONFIDENCE in government that is the primary component of hyperinflation.

I have also shown that the hyperinflation that took place in the Roman Empire during the 3rd century followed the capture of Emperor Valerian I in 260AD by the Persians. Once that took place, the barbarians from every angle began to invade the Roman Empire. Money was hoarded and the government had no choice but to debased the coinage to try to cover its bills.

There is a wealth of examples that demonstrate it is the collapse in CONFIDENCE that takes place and then the hyperinflation unfolds as a RESULT of that. It is NEVER as the goldbugs pitch to sell people gold that an increase in money supply is the cause of hyperinflation. It is ALWAYS, and without exception, the collapse in public confidence that precedes the hyperinflation.

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in U. S. DC Uni-party • Tagged Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Big Government, Cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Credit, CRS, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Debt, debt bubbles, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic Collapse, Economic Confidence Model, economics, Edelman Trust Barometer, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, glazier’s fallacy, Gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Keynesian Economics, Marxism, Money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Panics, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, police asset forfeiture, Pre-Pay VAT, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, The Forecaster, the Great Depression, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, Wealth tax
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Mar 2 2018

Hunt for Taxes & the CRS


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Mar 2, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I followed your advice and opened an account in the United States. I live in Britain and my daughter lives there in the States so I used her local address. To my shock, it was very easy. You said the USA has become the new tax haven. So the USA is not part of the common reporting that even covers the Middle East?

KL

ANSWER: That is correct. The Common Reporting Standard (CRS) is an information standard for the automatic exchange of tax and financial information on a global level. It was put together by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) back in 2014. Its purpose was to hunt down tax evasion primarily for the European Union. They took the concept from the US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), which imposed liabilities on foreign institutions if they did not report what Americans were doing outside the country.

The legal basis of the CRS is the Convention on Mutual Administrative Assistance in Tax Matters. As of 2016, 83 countries had signed an agreement to implement it. First reporting took place in September 2017. The CRS has many loopholes for countries have to sign the agreement. This has omitted the United States as well as most developing countries. Note that countries that are included are China, Singapore, Switzerland, most tax havens and of course Australian/New Zealand as well as Canada.

As of 2018, the signing nations to avoid are:

Albania, Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Australia, Austria, The Bahamas, Bahrain, Belize, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Dominica, Ghana, Grenada, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Marshall Islands, Macao (China), Malaysia, Mauritius, Monaco, Nauru, New Zealand, Pakistan, Panama, Qatar, Russia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Samoa, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sint Maarten, Switzerland, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Vanuatu

Categories: The Hunt for Taxes

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Economic Subjects • Tagged Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Big Government, Cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Credit, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Debt, debt bubbles, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic Collapse, Economic Confidence Model, economics, Edelman Trust Barometer, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, glazier’s fallacy, Gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Keynesian Economics, Marxism, Money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Panics, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, police asset forfeiture, Pre-Pay VAT, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, The Forecaster, the Great Depression, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, Wealth tax
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Centinel2012

Centinel2012

Semi-retired ex-military, ex-businessman, ex-inventor, ex-engineer and now full time member of the Tea Party. My current goal in life is to make sure that the truth is known to all with an open mind.

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