QUESTION: I found your article on the theory of money supply is not the source of inflation very fascinating. I was taken back by the fact that there were moneyers who signed the coins for their term each year as we still do today. Are there any other traditions from Rome that we still maintain with respect to money?

PF

ANSWER: That is an actually a good question for it demonstrates how traditions lose the purpose for what they were originally introduced as a solution. You will notice that some pennies or quarters, for example, have mint marks. There will be no mint mark reflecting it was coined in Philadelphia, “D” for Denver, and “S” for San Francisco. The Denver Mint was established to process the silver finds in Colorado and San Francisco was established because of the California Gold Rush. Those events are long since past but the mints still remain. Mints were also established in New Orleans (O) and Carson City Nevada (CC). They were closed after the roaring bullion days.

There were forgeries of coins in the precious metals as well as bronze just about as soon as coins were invented.  When you look at the counterfeits that were being made in the outer regions surrounding the Roman Empire, we can easily distinguish such forgeries based upon style looking at the bronze Dupondius of Claudius (41-54AD). The forgers obviously lacked people with talent to copy the dies. Now, look at the silver denarius forgery. Here the style is professional. Such forgeries are made from bronze and silver plated. They are called Fourrée Denarii being plated in silver. The dies are professional. Because these are known throughout the entire run of Roman coins, it is believed that this high level of quality was probably “officially” produced in the various mints. It is most likely that they were frauds by the mint staff rather than officially sanctioned.

When Government No Longer Accepts Its Own Money

Despite the fact that the Emperor Valentinian I (364-375 AD) faced constant frontier wars, he addressed the finances of the Empire head-on. In 366 AD, Valentinian carried out an important reform of the tax-collection system which was enacted whereby payments to the Imperial Treasury would no longer be made in coin but in refined bullion. All coins were to be melted down and refined being poured in the form of officially certified gold and silver bars as pictured here. Taxes were to be paid in bullion and not coin to ensure the highest metal content. Effectively, the government would no longer accept its own coinage as legal tender. The existing coinage was melted down as a necessity because of the quality of the metal content and the underweight of the coinage in addition to the pervasive counterfeit coinage in circulation, undermined the confidence in the circulating currency.

Additionally, some mints were engaged in outright fraud as mentioned above. Mint staff had become very corrupt by this point in time during the 4th century and the problem was so acute that the anonymous author of the “De Rebus Bellicis”, which was a work that suggested remedies for the military and financial problems in the Roman Empire at that junction in history, recommended action against the mint staff. This work recommended isolating all the monetary staff producing coinage and prosecuting them for their frauds. The new system of melting down the coinage introduced by Valentinian I ensured that the treasury was refilled with the added advantage of restoring both the public and foreign confidence in the precious metal coinage once again. New arrangements were also put in place for the making of gold and silver denominations under the control of the Emperor. Previously, this had been in the hands of the various mintmasters. Valentinian’s reform was aimed at limiting the activities of the mint staff to the production of base metal coinage while gold and silver denominations were to become the prerogatives of potentially mobile minting establishments operating in the environments of the Imperial palaces where ever the Emperor happened to be in residence.

Rome during the 3rd century introduced mint marks to keep track of what coins were produced from what mint. In this way, they were able to identify any mint that was cheating the people. Aurelian (270275AD) returned to Rome in 271 AD, where he had to pacify a terrified city. He immediately halted the rioting and restored order to the capital. The controller of the mint in Rome began a rebellion over the monetary reforms laid out by Aurelian. He ordered that all the debased currency be purchased back and replaced with a new currency of higher content in silver. The rebellion was led by Felicissimus. It appears that those who had been running the mint were embezzling the intended silver and issuing the debased coinage at least in part on their own authority. Obviously, any reform to the monetary system that called for an increase in silver content would have been unprofitable for those running the mint for personal gain. In the rebellion, as many as 7,000 soldiers died when Aurelian was forced to trap and execute them and their allies, some of the senatorial rank, in a terrible battle on the Caelian Hills. Now that is what you call monetary reform!

Currently, the advantage of paper money is that there are far fewer counterfeits in circulation today compared to Rome during the 4th century AD. The emperor who followed Valentinian I was still facing problems with the currency. Here is an Æ Exagium which is a Solidi Weight (20mm, 3.57 grams) for testing gold coins issued under Theodosius I. Clearly, the idea of a gold standard was not all that it was cracked up to be. Counterfeits were always a problem in addition to clipping and shaving the coinage to lighten the weight.

They often say the more things change, the more they remain the same. Some artists who were proud of their work signed the dies for coins. We find the artist who created the Lincoln penny signed the die in 1909 engraving his initials V.D.B. as did the artist Kimon in ancient Sicily on the Decadrachms of Syracuse during the 4th/5th century BC engraving his initials “KI” on the headband.

COMMENT: 

The Hunt for taxes
Just to bring to your attention a scandal coming out with the Tax office in Australia pursuing aggressive revenue targets, and using unethical practices to generate it.
D

ANSWER: The scandal in Australia with the head of the Tax office is shocking involving a $165 million tax-fraud ­syndicate scandal. The police have arrested people in Australia which is admirable. The  2013 US scandal about the United States Internal Revenue Service (IRS) doing similar acts of abuse of power was never prosecuted or really investigated. It was revealed back then that the IRS had selected political groups applying for tax-exempt status for intensive scrutiny based on their names or political themes. This led to a pretend investigation by Attorney General Eric Holder. In January 2014, James Comey, who at the time was the FBI director and walks on water, told Fox News that its investigation had found no evidence warranting criminal charges in a neat cover-up.

Finally, in late September 2017, a report by the Treasury Department’s inspector general found that from 2004 to 2013, the IRS used both conservative and liberal keywords to choose targets for scrutiny. Finally, in October 2017, Trump agreed to settle a lawsuit filed on behalf of more than 400 conservative nonprofit groups who claimed that they had been discriminated against by the Internal Revenue Service. The settlement included an apology from the IRS and a very substantial monetary settlement. That’s how they do it in the States. Government is always above the law and people like Comey always protect the bureaucracy. He is now doing everything in his power to take down Trump for the bureaucracy.

The Australian Taxation Office and all its tax-avoidance investigations are now in jeopardy since the deputy commissioner is facing criminal charges­ and four of its offic­ials stood down as well. This would NEVER happen in the United States.

Many people have written in asking the same question:

“My question is as follows. Since we are all connected in this world. Will there be any place at all that will not be affected by a WW3? “

So far, we do not see anywhere in the developed world that will be unaffected. That does not mean it would be destroyed, just impacted economically. We are running our models all the time waiting for a glimpse of such an indication. We will certainly let everyone know if the computer finds such a place. What it appears to be is the destruction of the West’s economy. This seems to be connected largely to the collapse of socialism and government promises. It even appears that many governments are deliberately trying to instigate a war that they can use as an excuse to suspend debt payments which would allow them to deny their fiscal mismanagement for decades.

The computer has been projecting the collapse in sovereign debt on a global scale. Anyone with half a brain can see something is seriously wrong that the national debts just keep growing and we borrow money endlessly with no intention of paying anything back. You have to be a full moron to have created such a system that never ends. Even without war, we are headed into a Sovereign Debt Crisis which is inevitable.

As I have stated, interest expenditure will exceed military spending in the USA in 2019.  We can see that the national debt as a percent of GDP has been steadily rising in a breakout mode since the low established during the 2nd quarter 2001.  We reached a 13-year peak during the 1st quarter of 2014 and bottomed again with the Economic Confidence Model the 3rd quarter 2015 (2015.75). We have rallied once again making new highs and we are headed for the next high in 2020. Thereafter, the turning points will be 2027 and 2038.

So welcome to the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The debt turned up exactly with the 2015.75 turning point. As interest rates rise, we are on schedule for a real explosion in debt. The higher the debt to GDP rises, the greater the risk that the debt will force higher taxes resulting in lower economic growth. While everyone bashes the USA because it has the largest debt, it also has the largest economy. The debt to GDP in China exceeded 250% at the end of 2017.

So where do we go? We will be looking at that as we move forward

QUESTION: The coalition agreement in Germany provided for criminal sanctions against companies of any size. Naturally, the large companies can withstand such an attack. Small business cannot. Do you see this as another push over the cliff for Europe since Germany is the pillar of the EU economy?

Thank you from Berlin

HS

ANSWER: Unfortunately, this new provision was demanded by the SPD. It allows for major suits through the back door which will destroy small business and expose them to financial risks that may make it just impossible to do business. Major companies like VW can weather the storm of a criminal action. This allows even for antitrust proceedings in price agreements. People will be able to allege and off you go on with years of investigation that may lead even nowhere. Even the closure of a production plant that violates environmental guidelines will be actionable. The list goes on and on. While the administrative offense law can impose fines. here we are looking at actually criminal prosecutions. When criminal actions become profitable to the accusor, tyranny flourishes.

This is one more step at the exact wrong moment that will only further restrain economic growth when it becomes too risky for small business.

While the majority keep bashing the Federal Reserve, other central banks seem to escape any criticism. The European Central Bank under Mario Draghi has engaged in what history will call the Great Monetary Experiment of the 21st Century – the daring experiment of negative interest rates. A look behind the scenes reveals that this experiment has been not just a failure, it has undermined the entire global economic structure. We are looking at pension funds being driven into insolvency as the traditional asset allocation model of 60% equity 40% bonds has failed to secure the future with negative interest rates. Then, the ECB has exceeded 40% ownership of Eurozone government debt. The ECB realizes it can not only sell any of its holdings ever again, it cannot even refuse to reinvest what it has already bought when those bonds expire. The Fed has announced it will not reinvest anything. Draghi is trapped. He cannot stop buying government debt for if he does, interest rates will soar. He cannot escape this crisis and it is not going to end nicely.

When this policy collapses, forced by the free markets (no bid), CONFIDENCE will collapse rapidly. Once people no longer believe the central banks can control anything, the end has arrived. We will be looking at the time at the WEC. We will be answering the question – Can a central bank actually fail?