In the past several election cycles CTH has posted ‘Ground Report- Open Discussion’ threads to review perspectives of ground reports from your state, city and neighborhood. ‘Ground Reports’ are a valuable resource to gauge the non-quantifiable elements around elections; they are often quite insightful.

Many states are currently in the process of early voting. If you have a ground report you would like to share, please use the comment section below to provide your perspective.

Additionally, there are often obscure events that can help identify voting trends and possibilities; so don’t limit your review to traditional perspectives. Sentiments and senses are also very useful. What do you sense? What is going on in/around your town and location? Good or bad; positive or negative; what do you see happening?

First the wonky stuff.  The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CBCCI) has jumped again for October and now measures the highest current sentiment among consumers since 2000.   The CCI now stands at 137.9 (1985=100), up from 135.3 in September.   Additionally, the future outlook of consumers, known as the “Expectations Index” (consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions) increased from 112.5 last month to 114.6 this month.  More DATA winnamins.

What does that mean?  Well, it means middle-America feels GREAT about now, next week, next month, and well into next year.  Additionally, now that the winnamins are starting to catch up to them, the pontificating wonkified actuaries will begin to project a splendidly “strong” holiday season.  Duh!  They’re always playing catch-up. LOL.

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The key to understanding MAGAnomics is to focus on the middle-class.  If the middle-class is thriving and doing well, all of the economic indicators will tell the same story.  MAGAnomic benefactors (ordinary working people outside the investment class) are scantly impacted by the Stock Market.

When the middle-class is thriving, everything inside the U.S. economy improves.

This is the key and cannot be repeated enough.

Trump’s MAGAnomic policy focuses on Main Street.  The preceeding 30+ years of economic policy focused on Wall Street.

That’s the essential difference.

The benefactors of MAGAnomics are those working week-to-week, month-to-month, to take care of their family.  The middle-class; not the uni-focused investment class.

When the middle-class is optimistic, confident and positive, you can be certain of an exceptional holiday season.  This is not challenging to understand.

As we shared when the third-quarter GDP results were announced a few days ago; everything is pointing to a great fourth quarter and holiday retail season.

Overall the 3.5% GDP growth is exceptionally strong.  To see the data bolstering a positive future forecast I would draw attention to Table 2 (lines 43 through 49) and the analysis for net impact over Exports/Imports.  The heavy import number delivered a net subtraction of 1.78% from GDP growth; that’s a result of a large increase in imported durable goods [likely anticipatory holiday inventory buildup].

As you can imagine from your own shopping experiences, durable goods inventories generally climb in the third quarter as companies increase inventory in preparation for holiday sales in quarter four.  The growth in the buildup of this inventory is significantly higher than historic trend; this means companies are forecasting strong consumer demand for goods in Q4, the holiday season.

Further support for a booming Q4 purchase prediction can be found in the current 4% growth of consumer spending.  With wages growing (3.8% avg), and with an incredibly strong jobs market, people are making large purchases with confidence.  Additionally, price data in the current GDP report shows inflation at a 1.6 percent annualized pace.

Add it all up and you can see the reason for companies to boost inventory ahead of a very strong holiday season.  The middle class drives the MAGAnomic economy.  Workers are getting paid more and being taxed less; our paychecks are bigger.

Simultaneously inflation is low (prices not increasing), so the net is more disposable income to make purchases, combined with confidence in wages/jobs allowing people to spend more.

President Trump, First-lady Melania Trump, Jared and Ivanka Kushner along with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin visit the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to pay their respects and condolences to the victims of a mass shooting on Saturday.

President Trump laid a stone of remembrance and First Lady Melania laid a white rose upon each of eleven Star of David markers outside the Synagogue prior to going inside to visit survivors and family members.

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After leaving the Synagogue the President and first lady traveled to the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center to meet with additional victims of Saturday’s shooting.  Their visit to the hospital included meeting with medical staff and wounded law enforcement officers: Officer Tim Matson (remains in intensive care); Officer Daniel Mead (discharged); Officer Anthony Burke (discharged); and Officer Tyler Paschel  (wounded).

A few months ago, when discussing overall immigration policy, I wrote: “There is no greater disconnect from ordinary Americans -on any singular issue- than the policy positions of Democrats and Republicans in Washington DC surrounding immigration. President Donald Trump is confronting their unified interests.”  The reaction from Speaker of the House Paul Ryan is directly related to this truism:

(Via Associated Press) […] The top Republican tells WVLK radio in Kentucky, “Well you obviously cannot do that. You cannot end birthright citizenship with an executive order.”

Ryan’s comments Tuesday offered a rare challenge to the president — from his own party. […]  Ryan says Republicans didn’t like when then-President Barack Obama “tried changing immigration laws via executive action. He says “obviously as conservatives we believe in the Constitution.”

Ryan is retiring but the No. 3 House Republican, Louisiana’s Rep. Steve Scalise, said on Fox that he’s glad Trump is considering options. (read more)

It does not go unnoticed that Speaker Ryan never challenged DACA.

It does not go unnoticed that Paul Ryan fully supported the June 2014 house vote for the Senate Gang-of-Eight immigration bill; until Majority Leader Eric Cantor was primaried 48 hours before the vote.

The issue of lax immigration, and the subsequent lack of enforcement, is the cornerstone for the UniParty in Washington DC. It is one of the central elements that isolates the professional political class from the majority of common sense Americans.

For the Democrats, support for open-borders and lax immigration enforcement is part of their overall ideology and fabian world-view.  For traditional republicans support for lax immigration, which allows exploitation of labor, is driven by the Wall Street views of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (President Tom Donohue), and various elements associated with multinational corporate interests (Koch Brothers).

No amount of external political pressure upon DC will change this dynamic.

The only thing that will fracture this entrenched DC ideology is a long-process to dismantle the system that enables mutually beneficial arrangement.

A few perspective examples:

Senator Lindsey Lindsey Graham will likely support Trump’s initiative to end the anchor baby process, or birthright citizenship.  However, tread cautiously, because Graham looks at this issue as a foot-in-door opportunity to force comprehensive immigration reform. There’s nothing altruistic within the “comprehensive.”

McCain dies; Martha McSally has the same view funded by the same benefactor.  Corker resigns; Mitt Romney has the same view funded by the same benefactor.  Paul Ryan exits; Kevin McCarthy has the same view funded by the same benefactor. See the problem?

If President Trump, on our behalf, is going to defeat the “Big Club” on the issues around immigration he will need two essential elements:

♦First, President Trump will need the unwavering support of common sense middle-America.  When I say ‘unwavering’, I mean total and complete support from everyone, anyone, who wants to see immigration law enforced.  Every entity who supports left-wing progressive globalism will spare no expense in attacking him.  The entire planet will align against him.  If you think things are bad now… oh man, we haven’t seen anything yet.

♦Second, POTUS will need to take the same strategic approach deployed in the trade and financial confrontation to new levels of strategy.  President Trump will need to replace everyone within the administration that is ‘Big Club’-sketchy; with extreme prejudice.  The attacks will come from all directions.  Having to deal with a weaponized intelligence apparatus, a duplicitous cabinet, and a complicit DOJ and FBI will make any immigration enforcement/reform effort almost impossible.   Right now, on the issue of immigration, many within the Trump cabinet are allied with the Donohue/Koch ‘Big Club’.

Suffice to say if the Republicans do not gain seats in the Senate and hold the House of Representatives it won’t even be worth starting.

“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

According to a widely repeated Axios interview with President Trump the administration is considering an executive order to eliminate the “Anchor Baby” interpretation within the 14th Amendment focused on “Birthright Citizenship.”

If the initial review of the intent is accurate, President Trump would sign an executive order that would remove the right to citizenship for babies of non-citizens and unauthorized immigrants born on U.S. soil.

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Until the 1960s, the 14th Amendment was never applied to undocumented immigrants, illegal aliens, or temporary (Visa) immigrants/visitors. The legal issues of birthright citizenship surrounding children born to non-legal parents inside the U.S. has never been decided by the Supreme Court.