Victor Davis Hanson Looks At Big Picture: President Trump Undoing Progressive Agenda….


Deep and compelling discussion between Victor Davis Hanson and Epoch Times’ Jan Jekielek about President Trump, his effectiveness, and an overall era of apoplexy amid the left as President Trump deconstructs the progressive agenda.

It’s an hour long interview that goes into a much more complex discussion; but it’s also well presented, explained and well worth the time to watch:

President Trump Attends Army -vs- Navy Game, Crowd Cheers – Stadium Plays Rocky Theme…


NAVY WINS !  (31 – 7 ) Congratulations NAVY !

Today President Trump attended the Army Navy game at Lincoln Field in Philadelphia.  The Commander-in-Chief visited both teams in their locker room prior to the start of the game.

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The stadium erupted with applause during the introduction and coin toss (video below); and then an act of serendipity or planning? (I think planning)…. at the conclusion of the coin toss, when POTUS was leaving the field, the stadium played The Rocky theme.

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PHILADELPHIA – President Donald Trump participated in the coin toss at the 120th Army-Navy football game at Lincoln Financial Field to a round of applause from the crowd Saturday.

The president stood on the field with representatives from both service academies during the national anthem and then walked to midfield, waving at supporters on his way. Trump stood on the Navy sideline, wearing his red cap, as the team ran onto the field before kickoff.

Trump walked out to midfield for the coin toss, with security personnel roping off the area. Trump was introduced to a round of applause from the crowd and tossed the coin.

Navy called tails and won the toss.

The president watched the first half from the Army side with Defense Secretary Mark Esper and other military leaders, according to the official pool report.

Trump crossed over to the Navy side at halftime. Some audience members chanted, “Commander in chief” and “Trump we love you” was also heard. A couple dozen people in uniform chanted, “Four more years!”  (read more)

Likely the Navy side was extra happy this year with the strength of support President Trump has given the SEALs.

Even though it’s Philly where they play it all the time; playing the Rocky theme while POTUS was on field was cool.

 

New Jersey Democrat Congressman, Jeff Van Drew, Will Switch Parties Over Impeachment Fraud…


Jeff Van Drew is a democrat congressman from New Jersey CD-02.  According to multiple media reports he is likely to switch to the republican party next week due to the fraudulent impeachment effort.  Van Drew was one of two democrats who did not support the vote for the impeachment inquiry.

According to Politico Democrat leadership are in a panic and urgently trying to get ahold of Van Drew.  The optics of a democrat changing parties at the same time they are trying to sell the validity of an impeachment narrative are terrible.

[…] Van Drew’s congressional and campaign staff were informed he was planning to switch parties on Saturday, according to Democratic sources. The question was now when, not if, Van Drew was joining the Republican Party, according to several Democrats with knowledge of the ongoing conversations.

As of Saturday afternoon, it was still unclear if Van Drew would make the announcement before the House votes on impeachment, which is expected Wednesday.

“It was supposed to be bipartisan, it was supposed to be incontrovertible. It was supposed to be something that was always on the rarest of circumstances,” Van Drew told reporters about impeachment earlier this week. “Well it’s not bipartisan.” (read more)

Melanie Zanona

@MZanona

And senior Dems have been scrambling to reach him all day.

story w/ @heatherscope: https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/14/jeff-van-drew-change-parties-085036 

Democratic impeachment holdout Jeff Van Drew planning to switch parties

The New Jersey lawmaker is one of two Democrats who didn’t back opening an impeachment inquiry into Trump.

politico.com

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Obama Era Political Surveillance, and The Dual Purpose of Fusion GPS…


With research files on the ’15, ’16 and ’17 political surveillance program; including information from the Mueller report and information from the IG Horowitz report; in combination with the Obama-era DOJ “secret research project” (their words, not mine); we are able to overlay the Obama-era domestic IC  operations and gain a full understanding of how political surveillance was conducted over a period of approximately four to six years.

Working with a timeline, but also referencing origination material in 2015/2016 – CTH hopes to show how the program(s) interacted and operated.  A full review explains an evolution from The IRS Files in 2010 to the FISA Files in 2016.

More importantly, the assembly of government reports and public records now indicates a political exploitation of the NSA database, for weaponized intelligence surveillance of politicians, began mid 2012.

The FISA-702 database extraction process, and utilization of the protections within the smaller intelligence community, became the primary process. We start by reviewing the established record from the 99-page FISC opinion rendered by Presiding Judge Rosemary Collyer on April 26th, 2017; and explain the details within the FISC opinion.

I would strongly urge everyone to read the FISC report (full pdf below) because Judge Collyer outlines how the DOJ, which includes the FBI, had an “institutional lack of candor” in responses to the FISA court. In essence, the Obama administration was continually lying to the court about their activity, and the rate of fourth amendment violations for illegal searches and seizures of U.S. persons’ private information for multiple years.

Unfortunately, due to intelligence terminology Judge Collyer’s brief and ruling is not an easy read for anyone unfamiliar with the FISA processes outlined. The complexity also helps the media avoid discussing, and as a result most Americans have no idea the scale and scope of the issues. So we’ll try to break down the language.

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For the sake of brevity and common understanding CTH will highlight the most pertinent segments showing just how systemic and troublesome the unlawful electronic surveillance was.

Early in 2016 NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers was alerted of a significant uptick in FISA-702(17) “About” queries using the FBI/NSA database that holds all metadata records on every form of electronic communication.

The NSA compliance officer alerted Admiral Mike Rogers who then initiated a full compliance audit on/around March 9th, 2016, for the period of November 1st, 2015, through May 1st, 2016.

While the audit was ongoing, due to the severity of the results that were identified, Admiral Mike Rogers stopped anyone from using the 702(17) “about query” option, and went to the extraordinary step of blocking all FBI contractor access to the database on April 18, 2016(keep these dates in mind).

Here are some significant segments:

The key takeaway from these first paragraphs is how the search query results were exported from the NSA database to users who were not authorized to see the material. The FBI contractors were conducting searches and then removing, or ‘exporting’, the results. Later on, the FBI said all of the exported material was deleted.

Searching the highly classified NSA database is essentially a function of filling out search boxes to identify the user-initiated search parameter and get a return on the search result.

FISA-702(16) is a search of the system returning a U.S. person (“702”); and the “16” is a check box to initiate a search based on “To and From“. Example, if you put in a date and a phone number and check “16” as the search parameter the user will get the returns on everything “To and From” that identified phone number for the specific date. Calls, texts, contacts etc. Including results for the inbound and outbound contacts.

FISA-702(17) is a search of the system returning a U.S. person (702); and the “17” is a check box to initiate a search based on everything “About” the search qualifier. Example, if you put a date and a phone number and check “17” as the search parameter the user will get the returns of everything about that phone. Calls, texts, contacts, geolocation (or gps results), account information, user, service provider etc. As a result, 702(17) can actually be used to locate where the phone (and user) was located on a specific date or sequentially over a specific period of time which is simply a matter of changing the date parameters.

And that’s just from a phone number.

Search an ip address “about” and read all data into that server; put in an email address and gain everything about that account. Or use the electronic address of a GPS enabled vehicle (about) and you can withdraw more electronic data and monitor in real time. Search a credit card number and get everything about the account including what was purchased, where, when, etc. Search a bank account number, get everything about transactions and electronic records etc. Just about anything and everything can be electronically searched; everything has an electronic ‘identifier’.

The search parameter is only limited by the originating field filled out. Names, places, numbers, addresses, etc. By using the “About” parameter there may be thousands or millions of returns. Imagine if you put “@realdonaldtrump” into the search parameter? You could extract all following accounts who interacted on Twitter, or Facebook etc. You are only limited by your imagination and the scale of the electronic connectivity.

As you can see below, on March 9th, 2016, internal auditors noted the FBI was sharing “raw FISA information, including but not limited to Section 702-acquired information”.

In plain English the raw search returns were being shared with unknown entities without any attempt to “minimize” or redact the results. The person(s) attached to the results were named and obvious. There was no effort to hide their identity or protect their 4th amendment rights of privacy:

But what’s the scale here? This is where the story really lies.

Read this next excerpt carefully.

The operators were searching “U.S Persons”. The review of November 1, 2015, to May 1, 2016, showed “eighty-five percent of those queries” were unlawful or “non compliant”.

85% !! “representing [redacted number]”.

We can tell from the space of the redaction the number of searches were between 1,000 and 9,999 [five digits]. If we take the middle number of 5,000 – that means 4,250 unlawful searches out of 5,000.

The [five digit] amount (more than 1,000, less than 10,000), and 85% error rate, was captured in a six month period, November 2015 to April 2016.

Also notice this very important quote: “many of these non-compliant queries involved the use of the same identifiers over different date ranges.” This tells us the system users  were searching the same phone number, email address, electronic “identifier”, or people, repeatedly over different dates.

Specific people were being tracked/monitored.

Additionally, notice the last quote: “while the government reports it is unable to provide a reliable estimate of” these non lawful searches “since 2012, there is no apparent reason to believe the November 2015 [to] April 2016 coincided with an unusually high error rate”.

That means the 85% unlawful FISA-702(16)(17) database abuse has likely been happening since 2012.

2012 is an important date in this database abuse because a network of specific interests is assembled that also shows up in 2016/2017:

  • Who was 2012 FBI Director? Robert Mueller, who was selected by the FBI group to become special prosecutor in 2017.
  • Who was Mueller’ chief-of-staff? Aaron Zebley, who became one of the lead lawyers on the Mueller special counsel.
  • Who was 2012 CIA Director?  John Brennan (remember the ouster of Gen Petraeus)
  • Who was ODNI? James Clapper.
  • Remember, the NSA is inside the Pentagon (Defense Dept) command structure. Who was Defense Secretary?  Ash Carter
  • Who wanted NSA Director Mike Rogers fired?  Brennan, Clapper and Carter.
  • And finally, who wrote and signed-off-on the January 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment and then lied about the use of the Steele Dossier?  John Brennan, James Clapper

Tens of thousands of searches over four years (since 2012), and 85% of them are illegal. The results were extracted for?…. (I believe this is all political opposition use; and I’ll explain why momentarily.)

OK, that’s the stunning scale; but who was involved?

Private contractors with access to “raw FISA information that went well beyond what was necessary to respond to FBI’s requests“:

And as noted, the contractor access was finally halted on April 18th, 2016.

[Coincidentally (or not), the wife of Fusion-GPS founder Glenn Simpson, Mary Jacoby, goes to the White House the next day on April 19th, 2016.]

None of this is conspiracy theory.

All of this is laid out inside this 99-page opinion from FISC Presiding Judge Rosemary Collyer who also noted that none of this FISA abuse was accidental in a footnote on page 87: “deliberate decisionmaking“:

This specific footnote, if declassified, would be key. Note the phrase: “([redacted] access to FBI systems was the subject of an interagency memorandum of understanding entered into [redacted])”, this sentence has the potential to expose an internal decision; withheld from congress and the FISA court by the Obama administration; that outlines a process for access and distribution of surveillance data.

Note: “no notice of this practice was given to the FISC until 2016“, that is important.

Summary of this aspect: The FISA court identified and quantified tens-of-thousands of search queries of the NSA/FBI database using the FISA-702(16)(17) system. The database was repeatedly used by persons with contractor access who unlawfully searched and extracted the raw results without redacting the information and shared it with an unknown number of entities.

The outlined process certainly points toward a political spying and surveillance operation; and we are not the only one to think that’s what this system is being used for.

Back in 2017 when House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes was working to reauthorize the FISA legislation, Nunes wrote a letter to ODNI Dan Coats about this specific issue:

SIDEBAR: To solve the issue, well, actually attempt to ensure it never happened again, NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers eventually took away the “About” query option permanently in 2017. NSA Director Rogers said the abuse was so inherent there was no way to stop it except to remove the process completely. [SEE HERE] Additionally, the NSA database operates as a function of the Pentagon, so the Trump administration went one step further. On his last day as NSA Director Admiral Mike Rogers -together with ODNI Dan Coats- put U.S. cyber-command, the database steward, fully into the U.S. military as a full combatant command. [SEE HERE]  Unfortunately it didn’t work as shown by the 2018 FISC opinion rendered by FISC Judge James Boasberg [SEE HERE]

There is little doubt the FISA-702(16)(17) database system was used by Obama-era officials, from 2012 through April 2016, as a way to spy on their political opposition.

Quite simply there is no other intellectually honest explanation for the scale and volume of database abuse that was taking place; and keep in mind these searches were all ruled to be unlawful.  Searches for repeated persons over a period time that were not authorized.

When we reconcile what was taking place and who was involved, then the actions of the exact same principle participants take on a jaw-dropping amount of clarity.

All of the action taken by CIA Director Brennan, FBI Director Comey, ODNI Clapper and Defense Secretary Ashton Carter make sense. Including their effort to get NSA Director Mike Rogers fired.

Everything after March 9th, 2016, had a dual purpose:  (1) done to cover up the weaponization of the FISA database. [Explained Here] Spygate, Russia-Gate, the Steele Dossier, and even the 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment (drawn from the dossier and signed by the above) were needed to create a cover-story and protect themselves from discovery of this four year weaponization, political surveillance and unlawful spying. Even the appointment of Robert Mueller as special counsel makes sense; he was FBI Director when this began. (2) They needed to keep surveillance ongoing.

The beginning decision to use FISA(702) as a domestic surveillance and political spy mechanism appears to have started in/around 2012. Perhaps sometime shortly before the 2012 presidential election and before John Brennan left the White House and moved to CIA. However, there was an earlier version of data assembly that preceded this effort.

Political spying 1.0 was actually the weaponization of the IRS. This is where the term “Secret Research Project” originated as a description from the Obama team. It involved the U.S. Department of Justice under Eric Holder and the FBI under Robert Mueller. It never made sense why Eric Holder requested over 1 million tax records via CD ROM, until overlaying the timeline of the FISA abuse:

The IRS sent the FBI “21 disks constituting a 1.1 million page database of information from 501(c)(4) tax exempt organizations, to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.” The transaction occurred in October 2010 (link)

Why disks? Why send a stack of DISKS to the DOJ and FBI when there’s a pre-existing financial crimes unit within the IRS. All of the evidence within this sketchy operation came directly to the surface in early spring 2012.

The IRS scandal was never really about the IRS, it was always about the DOJ asking the IRS for the database of information. That is why it was transparently a conflict when the same DOJ was tasked with investigating the DOJ/IRS scandal. Additionally, Obama sent his chief-of-staff Jack Lew to become Treasury Secretary; effectively placing an ally to oversee/cover-up any issues. As Treasury Secretary Lew did just that.

Lesson Learned – It would appear the Obama administration learned a lesson from attempting to gather a large opposition research database operation inside a functioning organization large enough to have some good people that might blow the whistle.

The timeline reflects a few months after realizing the “Secret Research Project” was now worthless (June 2012), they focused more deliberately on a smaller network within the intelligence apparatus and began weaponizing the FBI/NSA database. If our hunch is correct, that is what will be visible in footnote #69:

How this all comes together in 2019

Fusion GPS was not hired in April 2016 to research Donald Trump. As shown in the evidence provided by the FISC, the intelligence community was already doing surveillance and spy operations. The Obama administration already knew everything about the Trump campaign, and were monitoring everything by exploiting the FISA database.

However, after the NSA alerts in/around March 9th, 2016, and particularly after the April 18th shutdown of contractor access, the Obama intelligence community needed Fusion GPS to create a legal albeit ex post facto justification for the pre-existing surveillance and spy operations. Fusion GPS gave them that justification in the Steele Dossier.

That’s why the FBI small group, which later transitioned into the Mueller team, were so strongly committed to and defending the formation of the Steele Dossier and its dubious content.

The Steele Dossier, an outcome of the Fusion contract, contains two purposes: (1) the cover-story and justification for the pre-existing surveillance operation (protect Obama); and (2) facilitate the FBI counterintelligence operation against the Trump campaign (assist Clinton).

An insurance policy would be needed. The Steele Dossier becomes the investigative virus the FBI wanted inside the system. To get the virus into official status, they used the FISA application as the delivery method and injected it into Carter Page. The FBI already knew Carter Page; essentially Carter Page was irrelevant, what they needed was the FISA warrant and the Dossier in the system {Go Deep}.

Fusion GPS was not only hired to research Trump, the intelligence community was already doing surveillance and spy operations. The intelligence community needed Fusion GPS to give them a plausible justification for already existing surveillance and spy operations.

Fusion-GPS gave them the justification they needed for a FISA warrant with the Steele Dossier. Ultimately that’s why the Steele Dossier is so important; without it, the DOJ and FBI would be naked with their FISA-702 abuse as outlined by John Ratcliffe.

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Fake News Masterpiece!


FAKE NEWS FAIL

Many would not consider a banana duct taped to a wall to be art, yet it sold for $120,000. Art is subjective, but facts are not.

The Steele Dossier has been proven to be garbage, but the fake stream media continues to sell it, even after the Inspector General’s report. The dossier was based on rumors and packaged by an anti-Trump foreign spy (Steele) who supposedly got it from his Russian contacts. Hillary paid for the dossier, which means she interfered in our election with the help of Russia. She did what she accused Trump of doing.

Carter Page was not hired by Trump—he volunteered to help his campaign. Page did work for the CIA while he lived in Moscow for a few years. The FBI knew this, but falsified email and accused Page of working with the Russians. They then lied to the FISA court to enable them to spy on Trump’s campaign. Someone needs to go to prison for this, but the Fake News Media is actually sticking to their guns and accusing Page of Russian collusion to help Trump. They are sticking to the lie!

The CIA, FBI, and mass media have all been corrupted and politicized. It has been going on for many decades, but the Bush and Clinton crime families along with Obama made it far worse. The Deep State Swamp creatures think they get to decide who is president—not the citizens. We need to break up both security agencies. As for the lying mass media, they have lost all credibility by pretending the Steele Dossier is anything but rotten. They need to be ignored.

—Ben Garriso

2019 Person of the Year: Humanitarian Environmentalist Donald Trump


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Visit The Patriot Post: America’s News Digest http://bit.ly/2MUKjda —– Time magazine dubs Swedish teen climate activist Greta Thunberg as the 2019 person of the year, but Bill Whittle has his own nominee — a humanitarian and environmentalist who actually did something. Here’s why the editors of Time should have picked President Donald Trump, and why they never can. Bill Whittle Now with Scott Ott comes to you 20 times each month thanks to our Members. – Become a Member: https://BillWhittle.com/register/ – Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/billwhittle – Listen to our shows on the go with your podcast app: http://bit.ly/BWN-Podcasts – Watch us now on Amazon’s Fire TV by downloading the Bill Whittle Network app. http://bit.ly/BWN-FireTV – Ask your Amazon smart device, “Alexa, play Bill Whittle Network on TuneIn radio.” – We’re on Bitchute too: http://bit.ly/BWN-Bitchute

Jobs Up Record 6th Month, Unemployment at 50-Year Low: Quick, Impeach Trump!


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Visit our friends at The Patriot Post: America’s News Digest http://bit.ly/2qc2BOt —– Democrats are in a pickle for 2020, as the Labor Department reports a 6th straight month of record job growth, and a 50-year low in unemployment. How can they compete with this economic juggernaut. Quick, impeach Trump! Bill Whittle Now with Scott Ott comes to you 20 times each month thanks to our Members. You can become one of them to advance these messages at https://BillWhittle.com/register/ – Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/billwhittle – Listen to our shows on the go with your podcast app: http://bit.ly/BWN-Podcasts – Watch us now on Amazon’s Fire TV by downloading the Bill Whittle Network app. http://bit.ly/BWN-FireTV – Ask your Amazon smart device, “Alexa, play Bill Whittle Network on TuneIn radio.” – We’re on Bitchute too: http://bit.ly/BWN-Bitchute

Impeach Trump: The Democrat Party’s 2020 Election Concession Speech


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Bill Whittle thinks he now understands why Democrats continue to pursue their Quixotic impeachment dream. It’s the Democrat Party’s 2020 election concession speech. They know they can’t convict or remove him from office, and they know they can’t beat him in November. Why do you think they continue down this path? Right Angle comes to you 20 times each month thanks to our Members who get their own blog, vigorous comment forum and private messaging in the Members-only section of our site. – Become a Member at https://BillWhittle.com/register/ – Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/billwhittle – Listen to our shows on the go with your podcast app: http://bit.ly/BWN-Podcasts – Watch us now on Amazon’s Fire TV by downloading the Bill Whittle Network app. http://bit.ly/BWN-FireTV – Ask your Amazon smart device, “Alexa, play Bill Whittle Network on TuneIn radio.” – We’re on Bitchute too: http://bit.ly/BWN-Bitchute

 

Supreme Court Will Take Up Trump Financial Records and Tax Cases – Consolidated All Cases and Granted Writ…


Big Win For President Trump !

As we expected the Supreme Court has granted the petition for a writ of certiorari and will hear cases related to attempts to gain President Trump financial records and tax filings.

The Supreme Court has issued a stay upon all lower court action and consolidated the cases into one writ.  The court will hear arguments in March and release a ruling later in the summer of 2020.

President Trump went to the Supreme Court after the House Financial Services and Intelligence Committees issued subpoenas to Deutsche Bank and Capital One seeking President Trump’s tax records. In his request to the court [Read Here] Trump asked SCOTUS to block the subpoenas on the ground they go beyond the committees’ powers.

Justice Ginsburg stayed the lower court decision and ordered the House of Representatives to file a response by Wednesday, December 11.  The cases and issues were then discussed at their private SCOTUS conference.  Today’s writ is the outcome.

The underlying House case has several defects.

Attorney Ristvan previously provided a good encapsulation of the problems for the House that explains why President Trump could likely win the case:

House Oversight is one of three committees that 26USC§6103(f) requires the IRS to turn over individual returns “upon request”.

They requested (PDJT taxes for 6 years 2013-2018) long before Pelosi announced her impeachment inquiry, way before the House vote on same, to which Pelosi said Sunday, (paraphrased) “We haven’t decided to impeach. We are only inquiring about it.”

The ‘upon request’ is not as absolute as it seems. The request must still be predicated on a legitimate legislative purpose. SCOTUS has held (I skip the rulings, since previously commented on here many months ago) that there are only two valid purposes, both constrained to legislative powers expressly granted by A1§8.

1. An inquiry into making, repealing, or amending an A1§8 law.
2. Oversight of executive administration of an existing law.

With respect to (1), a legitimate legislative purpose would be reviewing real estate tax law for possible changes. BUT then, the request should have come from Ways and Means (Neal) where tax laws originate. AND, it should have included requests for tax returns from other big real estate developers also. Singling out only PDJT is a fatal defect to this purpose.

With respect to (2), after Nixon/Agnew the tax code was amended to require a special IRS audit of annual POTUS and VPOTUS returns, with the results held in the National Archive. Reviewing those special audits by IRS would be a proper Oversight and Reform legislative purpose, BUT ONLY for 2017-2018 after PDJT was inaugurated. The earlier 4 years demanded are a fatal defect to this purpose.

Both these valid points were raised by President Trump and were already on their way to SCOTUS. Now the committee is trying to ‘cure’ these fatal request defects by claiming the returns are necessary for impeachment. This raises four new issues where PDJT can also win.

1. Impeachment is not a legislative purpose within A1§8.
2. Articles of Impeachment have historically been the the province of Judiciary, NOT Oversight.
3. The demand was made BEFORE the impeachment inquiry unofficially started and cannot be retrospectively cured.
4. No tax ‘high crimes of misdemeanors’ have even been alleged. Impeachment fishing expeditions are unconstitutional.

IMO this case has the potential to set a major constitutional precedent about POTUS harassment via political impeachment. The constitutional convention minutes and Federalist #65 both make it clear why ‘maladministration’ (the original third test after treason and bribery, and which WOULD allow for political impeachment) was replaced by ‘High Crimes and Misdemeanors’. The phrase was borrowed from prior British law, has a specific set of meanings, and DOES NOT allow political impeachment. (link)

The quest for President Trump’s financial records is essentially a legislative fishing expedition in an attempt to gain opposition research for their Democrat candidate in the 2020 election.

Brilliantly Played – President Trump and USTR Lighthizer Present “Phase One” U.S-China Trade Deal…


It is exactly as we thought it would be.  There are multiple interests, nuances in details, a completely overlooked big picture, and the financial pundits are flummoxed.

CTH has followed the granular details over several years. In advance of a “phase one” announcement we noted a necessary paradigm shift needed to understand most of the dynamics at play [SEE HERE]. It is all going according to a very visible plan.  President Trump tweets:

China has agreed to a $40 billion agricultural purchase from the U.S.  In exchange for that purchase President Trump will be maintaining the full 25 percent tariffs on approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports and reducing to 7.5 percent the tariffs on approximately $120 billion of Chinese imports (round two).  [Those were 15% prior to reduction]

The net difference (dropping 15% to 7.5%) is around $9 billion in tariff relief.  Additionally, the U.S. is “suspending” the December 15th tariffs pending compliance verification with the non-tariff issues and China pledges.

Beijing has agreed to allow U.S. banks access to their financial markets, reform their behavior on IP theft, stop the forced transfer of technology and, according to their *promises*, allow exclusive ownership of U.S. businesses within China.  These are the non-tariff issues.  However, these are *promises*, and Trump/Lighthizer are well aware Beijing lies as a competitive strategy.  Hence, the tariff hammer remains.

This is where the U.S. reviewer paradigm shift is needed.  Remember:  “There is no actual intent to reach a trade deal with China where the U.S. drops the tariffs and returns to holding hands with a happy panda playing by new rules. This fictional narrative is a figment of fantasy being sold by a financial media that cannot fathom a U.S. President would be so bold as to just walk away from China.”

President Trump doesn’t necessarily want China to comply with Western perspectives on free, fair and reciprocal trade.  He doesn’t want it not to suck doing business in China.  The goal of decoupling the U.S. from China is easier if U.S. companies are abused by China.  In the bigger picture President Trump wants the U.S. companies to leave.

The decoupling is already underway, and President Trump is creating new supply chains and manufacturing opportunities within the USMCA.  Business reform in China actually works against these objectives.

Based on history China won’t reform, Trump knows that, and everything over the past three years has been a set of parallel objectives.  Provide Beijing the opportunity to reform and stop their manipulative practices… BUT plan for them to do nothing.

USTR Robert Lightizer outlines their promise:

Washington, DC –  The United States and China have reached an historic and enforceable agreement on a Phase One trade deal that requires structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime in the areas of intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, and currency and foreign exchange.

The Phase One agreement also includes a commitment by China that it will make substantial additional purchases of U.S. goods and services in the coming years.  Importantly, the agreement establishes a strong dispute resolution system that ensures prompt and effective implementation and enforcement.  The United States has agreed to modify its Section 301 tariff actions in a significant way.

The United States first imposed tariffs on imports from China based on the findings of the Section 301 investigation on China’s acts, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation. The United States will be maintaining 25 percent tariffs on approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5 percent tariffs on approximately $120 billion of Chinese imports.  (read more)

Beijing has promised changes to intellectual property, technology transfer, agriculture, financial services, currency and foreign exchange. Additionally, Beijing has pledged a $40 billion agriculture purchase.

In exchange President Trump is willing to give up $9 billion in tariffs (15% lowered to 7.5%) and suspend further tariffs pending verification of the Beijing promises.

That’s it.

Economically in the deal, President Trump gains a net $40 billion for U.S. farmers; and gives up $9 billion in tariffs.  From that point everything, including any other possible trade agreement (phase 2, 3 etc.), is contingent on Beijing complying with their promises.

SUMMARY: Tariffs and decoupling will continue; exactly as expected:

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David ShoelessJoe🇺🇸@yohiobaseball

.@TheLastRefuge2 Trade deal even better than we thought previous tariffs stay and Pres Trump got them to agree to additional 7.5% tariff on the rest of their goods.
😆😆😆 Media presents it as a cut in tariffs. 🙄https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-china-confirm-reaching-phase-one-trade-deal-11576234325 

U.S. and China Reach Phase One Trade Agreement

U.S. and China Reach Phase One Trade Agreement

The U.S. and China have reached a preliminary agreement in their long-running trade war, President Trump and China Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen said in separate statements.

wsj.com

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