Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized
Re-Posted Sep 15, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Well it’s not hailstones down here. It is snow. Even the animals are confused.
REPLY: Well it certainly looks very dramatic from here in Florida.
Tag Archives: Meteorology Megadroughts
Will Global Warming Sink the Netherlands?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature
Re-Posted Sep 14, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
A friend of mine was taking a class in geography in university for the credits. The professor was all about brainwashing the class about Global Warming. The pitch was that with reducing air pollution from cars, it would be possible to save the Netherlands otherwise the seas will rise and the country will vanish from the face of the earth.
I find it really incredible how these people promote that everything on the planet is somehow our fault. Most of the ancient city of Alexandria, Egypt, from the time of Cleopatra is under water. Sure, that must have been caused by too many chariots and the farting of horses. Then there is the discovery of ancient sea fossils in the middle of Australia which shows that obviously, Australia was once under water. Dinosaur-age fossilized remains of extremely tiny organisms that are found in the sea have been discovered in the center of the arid Australian desert. This confirms that this area was, at least for a short time, under by sea water some 40 million years before Australia’s large inland sea existed.
I grew up in New Jersey. One of the few memories I have as a child was going down to the clay pits in search of dinosaurs since they had found one in the area. But they also found ancient sea creatures. During the Precambrian period, New Jersey was covered by a shallow sea that was home to stromatolite forming bacteria. During the early part of the Paleozoic, New Jersey was still under water. Fossils of various sea creatures were discovered in New Jersey. The state was home to creatures like brachiopods and trilobites. By the Silurian period, the northern part of the state was home to a river system. Sea levels rose and fell throughout the remainder of the state’s Paleozoic rock record long before people existed. There are no local rocks of Carboniferous or Permian age and then during the Triassic, the state became a terrestrial ecoregion. Then there were local lakes which became the home to various crustaceans. On land, dinosaurs left behind footprints and continued to do so into the Jurassic period. Much of the state was covered by sand which became known as the Pinelands.
The rise and fall of land have been going on for millions of years. It is part of the ecosystem itself and we are a bunch of narcissists to think that we are somehow even capable of changing the climate. We are no more than a flea on the back of a dog that can be shaken off when we become too annoying. When my friend texted me what the professor said that if we stopped driving our cars we could save the Netherlands, I texted back the ancient source I had read back in school.
There was a Greek geographer and explorer by the name of Pytheas of Massalia, but no copies of this work have survived. Nonetheless, we have others who have quoted Pytheas who recorded an account of the Low Countries, or what we call the Netherlands. Pytheas passed the Low Countries on his way to Heligoland around c. 325 BC. He wrote that “more people died in the struggle against water than in the struggle against men”. This is our earliest account of the region. Then we have the Roman author Pliny from the 1st century AD who wrote:
There, twice in every twenty-four hours, the ocean’s vast tide sweeps in a flood over a large stretch of land and hides Nature’s everlasting controversy about whether this region belongs to the land or to the sea. There these wretched peoples occupy high ground, or manmade platforms constructed above the level of the highest tide they experience; they live in huts built on the site so chosen and are like sailors in ships when the waters cover the surrounding land, but when the tide has receded they are like shipwrecked victims. Around their huts they catch fish as they try to escape with the ebbing tide. It does not fall to their lot to keep herds and live on milk, like neighboring tribes, nor even to fight with wild animals, since all undergrowth has been pushed far back.
Going back about 2,000 years ago, much of the Netherlands was covered by extensive peat swamps. The coastal dunes formed a natural embankment which prevented the swamps from draining. The first inhabitants were attracted to the rich soil compared to the peat swamps and sandy soil. They appear to have begun to protect themselves against floods by constructing their homes on artificial hills they created of which Pliny wrote about. Archeological evidence suggests that there was a cycle to the region between 500BC and 700AD where there were periods of habitation and abandonment as the sea level rose and fell.
It was not until the 9th century when the sea level rose again which forced people to raise their artificial hills higher. These small hills began to be connected forming villages and they began to construct dikes when communities could act in unison. It was not until after 1000AD that the population began to grow dramatically. This created more labor but a demand for more land. This is when we see the construction of dikes become more widespread. By 1250 most dikes had been connected into a continuous sea defense.
The Edict of Expulsion was a royal decree issued by King Edward I (1272-1307) of England on July 18th, 1290, expelling all Jews from the Kingdom of England. Why? The Jews were the king’s personal property, and he was free to tax them at will whereas British citizens could not be taxed without their consent which was obtained from Parliament. Edward I borrowed extensively from the Jews and taxes them to the point that they were no longer a source of revenue. He then expelled them and they were not allowed to take their property so it was the final confiscation to fund his war with France. Meanwhile, it was Philip IV of France who seized the Knights Templar, the Catholic Church moving it to Avignon installing a French Pope, and confiscating the assets of Italian bankers who were lending money to Edward I. This contributed to the first migration of the Jews to the Low Countries.
Sephardic Spanish Jews had once constituted one of the largest and most prosperous Jewish communities in the world and were regarded as the unquestioned leader of the Jewish world. During this period Sephardic Spanish Jews ended definitively with the anti-Jewish riots of 1391 about 100 years after the 1290 expulsion from England. Then about 100 years later, there was in Spain the Alhambra Decree of 1492 against the Jews. It seems that every time society could not repay the Jewish bankers, the borrowers suddenly discovered they were OMG Jewish. Consequently, the majority of Jews in Spain around 200,000 converted to Catholicism after the Alhambra Decree. Those who refused were forced into exile and migrated to the Netherlands where they began insurance and trading of commodities, bonds, and stocks in Amsterdam.
So to me, to even listen to some university professor claim that we can save the Netherlands by reducing CO2, I just cannot believe we have such idiots who know nothing and ignore history profess to students what amounts to just propaganda. And they want tens of thousands of dollars annually per student to be brainwashed. Unbelievable!
UPDATE 11:00pm Hurricane Florence: Hunkering Down – Maximum Winds Dropped to 90mph – With Overnight Livestream…
September 13, 2018
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 76.8 West. 50 miles south of Moorehead City, 60 miles east-south-east of Wilmington, North Carolina. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).
Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, coastal surface observations, and NOAA Doppler radar indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Florence core moves inland on Friday.
A turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slow forward speed is expected through Friday, followed by a slow west-southwestward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to move inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina Tonight, Friday and Saturday. Florence will then recurve across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground:
- Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC: 7-11 ft, with locally higher amounts in the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers
- Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC: 6-9 ft
- South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC: 4-6 ft
- Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC: 4-6 ft
- Salvo NC to Duck NC: 2-4 ft
- Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC: 2-4 ft
.
For those who are in the path of the storm, there comes a time when all options are removed and you enter the “Hunkering Down” phase. You’re there now. This storm is going to last for quite a while; and the backside storm surge has the potential to be much larger over time. This is going to be a long-duration event.
When the winds reach around 40mph, the utility company will likely, proactively, shut down the power. This makes things a heck of a lot safer in the aftermath; and much easier and safer during the rebuild. It is almost a guarantee you did not lose power due to damage from the storm but rather because of proactive measures from your power company. Do not expect the power to be turned back on until it is safe.
Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary. There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region. The sounds are scary, especially in the dark. Try to stay calm despite the nervousness. Telephone and power poles, yes, even the concrete ones, can, and likely will, snap like toothpicks. Trees will bend and break; the sounds are dramatic.
There’s a specific sound when you are inside a hurricane that you can never forget. It ain’t a howl, it’s a roar. It is very unique sound in depth and weight. Yes, within a hurricane wind has weight. Stay clear of windows and doors. That scary roar sounds like it won’t ever quit…. it will… eventually; but at the time you are hunkering down, it doesn’t seem like it will ever end.
A constant and pure rage of wind that doesn’t ebb and flow like normal wind and storms. Hurricane wind is heavy, it starts and stays; sometimes for hours. Relentless, it just won’t let up. And then, depending on her irrelevant opinion toward your insignificant presence, hopefully she stops.
Then silence. No birds. No frogs. No crickets. No sound.
Nature goes mute. It’s weird.
We have no idea how much ambient noise is around us, until it stops.
Oh, if she wants, she’ll keep dumping buckets on you as she wanders away. Buckets. Not pails, garbage can sized buckets. After the scour, yup, nature too has a rinse cycle.
If your town, city or hamlet is not underwater, there will be convoys coming to construct a pre-planned electricity grid recovery process. Convoys from every city, town and state from the east-coast to the mid-west. A glorious melding of dirty fingernails all arriving for the meet-up. Depending on your proximity to the bigger picture objectives at hand, you will cherish their arrival.
But first, there will be an assessment. The convoys will stage at pre-determined locations using radios for communication. Street-by-street everything needs to be evaluated prior to thinking about beginning to rebuild a grid. Your patience within this process is needed; heck, it ain’t like you’ve got a choice in the matter…. so just stay positive.
Meanwhile, you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your neighborhood.
It will all be cattywampus.
Trees gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.
I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e.
Stay away from power-lines.
Be entirely prepared to be lost in your own neighborhood and town for days, weeks, and even months. Unknown to you – your subconscious mind is like a human GPS mapping system. When that raging Florence takes away the subconscious landmarks I guarantee you – you are gonna get lost, make wrong turns, miss the exit etc.
It’s kinda funny and weird at the same time.
Your brain is wired to turn left at the big oak next to the Church, and the road to your house is likely two streets past the 7-11 or Circle-k. You don’t even notice that’s how you travel around town; that’s just your brain working – it is what it is.
Well, now the big oak is gone; so too is the Circle-K and 7-11 signs. Like I said, everything is cattywampus. Your brain-memory will need to reboot and rewire. In the interim, you’re gonna get lost… don’t get frustrated.
No street signs. Likely no stop signs. No traffic lights.
Remember, when it is safe to drive, every single intersection must be treated like a four-way stop…. and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION. Even the major intersections.
You’ll need to override your brain tendency to use memory in transit. You’ll need to pay close attention and watch for those who ain’t paying close attention. Travel sparingly, it’s just safer.
Check on your-self first, then your neighbors. It don’t matter if you’ve never said a word to the guy in the blue house before. It ain’t normalville now.
Break out of your box and check on the blue house down the street too. In the aftermath, there’s no class structure. Without power, the big fancy house on the corner with a pool is just a bigger mess. Everyone is equally a mess.
The first responders in your neighborhood are YOU.
You, the wife, your family, Mrs. Wilson next door; Joe down the street; Bob’s twin boys and the gal with the red car are all in this together. If you don’t ordinarily cotton to toxic masculinity you will worship it in the aftermath of a hurricane. Git-r-done lives there.
Don’t stand around griping with a 40′ tree blocking the main road to your neighborhood. Figure out who’s got chainsaws and set about clearing the road. If every neighborhood starts clearing their own roadways, the recovery crews can then move in for the details.
Stage one focuses on major arteries… then secondary… then neighborhood etc. It’s a process. Oh, and don’t get mad if your fancy mailbox is ploughed-over by a focused front end loader who is on a priority mission to clear a path. Just deal with it.
Phase-1 recovery is necessarily, well, scruffy…. we’re just moving and managing the mess; not trying to clean it up yet. It’ll be ok.
Keep a joyous heart filled with thankfulness; and if you can’t muster it, then just pretend. Don’t be a jerk. You will be surrounded by jerks…. elevate yourself. If you need to do a few minutes of cussing, take a walk. Keep your wits about you and stay calm.
Now, when the recovery teams arrive…. If you pass a line-man, pole-digger or crew say thanks. Just simple “thanks”. Wave at them and give them a thumbs-up. No need to get all unnecessarily familiar, a simple “thank you for your help” will generally suffice. You know, ordinary people skills.
Many of these smaller crews will be sleeping in cots, or in their trucks while they are working never-ending shifts. If you eventually start getting power back, and see a crew in a restaurant, same thing applies… “thanks guys”. If you can pay their tab, do it. If you can pay their tab without them knowing, even better.
Same goes for the tanker truckers. The convenience stores with gas pumps are part of the priority network. Those will get power before other locales without power. Fuel outlets are a priority. Hospitals, first responders, emergency facilities, fuel outlets, then comes commercial and residential.
Remember, you are the first responder for your neighborhood. Don’t quit.
Recovery is a process. Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days, weeks and even months. Take care of your family, friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.
It’ll be ok.
It might be a massive pain in the a**, but in the end, it’ll be ok.
√Andrew
√Jeanne
√Frances
√Ivan
√Charley
√Irma
Keep a good thought. Who knows, we might even end up shaking hands.
It’ll be OK. Promise.
11:00pm Update Hurricane Florence – Slight Weakening as Storm Stays On Predicted Course…
September 12, 2018
According to the 11:00pm advisory Hurricane Florence has weakened to a Category 2 storm with winds at 110mph. Forward speed is still around 17mph and it is located approximately 280 miles east south-east of Wilmington North Carolina. [16 hrs away]
Time Lapse Forecast Map Available Here
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected Thursday night and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina on Thursday, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday night and Friday. A slow motion over eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night and Saturday. (read more)
(Link to National Hurricane Center)
Hurricanes – Mostly The Aftermath…
September 12, 2018
As many long-time readers will know, we do have a little bit more than average experience dealing with the aftermath of hurricanes. I ain’t no expert in the before part; you need to heed the local, very local, professionals who will guide you through any preparation, and neighborhood specific guidelines, for your immediate area.
But when it comes to the ‘after part’, well, as a long-time CERT recovery member perhaps I can guide you through the expectation and you might find some value. Consider this little word salad a buffet, absorb what might be of value pass over anything else.
When the winds reach around 40mph, the utility company will likely, proactively, shut down the power. This makes things a heck of a lot safer in the aftermath; and much easier and safer during the rebuild. Don’t expect the power to be turned back on until it is safe.
Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary. There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region.
Telephone and power poles, yes, even the concrete ones, can, and likely will, snap like toothpicks. There’s a sound when you are inside a hurricane that you can never forget. It ain’t a howl, it’s a roar. A damn scary roar that just won’t quit…. it will… eventually, but at the time you are hearing it, it doesn’t seem like it will ever end.
A constant, and pure rage of scary wind that doesn’t ebb and flow like normal wind and storms… hurricane wind just starts and stays, sometimes for hours. Relentless and damn scary…. it just won’t let up. And then, depending on her irrelevant opinion toward your insignificant presence, hopefully she stops.
Then silence. No birds. No frogs. No crickets. No sound.
Nature goes mute. It’s weird.
We have no idea how much ambient noise is around us, until it stops.
Oh, if she wants, she’ll keep dumping buckets on you as she wanders away. Buckets. Not pails, garbage can sized buckets. After the scour, yup, nature too has a rinse cycle.
If your town, city or hamlet is not underwater, there will be convoys coming to construct a pre-planned electricity grid recovery process. Convoys from every city, town and state from the east-coast to the mid-west. A glorious melding of dirty fingernails all arriving for the meet-up. Depending on your proximity to the bigger picture objectives at hand, you will cherish their arrival.
But first, there will be an assessment. The convoys will stage at pre-determined locations using radios for communication. Street-by-street everything needs to be evaluated prior to thinking about beginning to rebuild a grid. Your patience within this process is needed; heck, it ain’t like you’ve got a choice in the matter…. so just stay positive.
Meanwhile, you might walk outside and find yourself a stranger in your neighborhood.
It will all be cattywampus.
Trees gone, crap everywhere, if you don’t need to travel, DON’T.
I mean CRAP e.v.e.r.y.w.h.e.r.e.
Stay away from power-lines.
Be entirely prepared to be lost in your own neighborhood and town for days, weeks, and even months. Unknown to you – your subconscious mind is like a human GPS mapping system. When that raging Florence takes away the subconscious landmarks I guarantee you – you are gonna get lost, make wrong turns, miss the exit etc.
It’s kinda funny and weird at the same time.
Your brain is wired to turn left at the big oak next to the Church, and the road to your house is likely two streets past the 7-11 or Circle-k. You don’t even notice that’s how you travel around town; that’s just your brain working – it is what it is.
Well, now the big oak is gone; so too is the Circle-K and 7-11 signs. Like I said, everything is cattywampus. Your brain will need to reboot and rewire. In the interim, you’re gonna get lost… don’t get frustrated.
No street signs. Likely no stop signs. No traffic lights.
Remember, when it is safe to drive, every single intersection must be treated like a four-way stop…. and YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION. Even the major intersections.
You’ll need to override your brain tendency to use memory in transit. You’ll need to pay close attention and watch for those who ain’t paying close attention. Travel sparingly, it’s just safer.
Check on your-self first, then your neighbors. It don’t matter if you’ve never said a word to the guy in the blue house before. It ain’t normalville now.
Break out of your box and check on the blue house down the street too. In the aftermath, there’s no class structure. Without power, the big fancy house on the corner with a pool is just a bigger mess. Everyone is equally a mess.
The first responders in your neighborhood are YOU.
You, the wife, your family, Mrs. Wilson next door; Joe down the street; Bob’s twin boys and the gal with the red car are all in this together. If you don’t ordinarily cotton to toxic masculinity you will worship it in the aftermath of a hurricane. Git-r-done lives there.
Don’t stand around griping with a 40′ tree blocking the main road to your neighborhood. Figure out who’s got chainsaws and set about clearing the road. If every neighborhood starts clearing their own roadways, the recovery crews can then move in for the details.
Stage one focuses on major arteries… then secondary… then neighborhood etc. It’s a process. Oh, and don’t get mad if your fancy mailbox is ploughed-over by a focused front end loader who is on a priority mission to clear a path. Just deal with it.
Phase-1 recovery is necessarily, well, scruffy…. we’re just moving and managing the mess; not trying to clean it up yet. It’ll be ok.
Keep a joyous heart filled with thankfulness; and if you can’t muster it, then just pretend. Don’t be a jerk. You will be surrounded by jerks…. elevate yourself. If you need to do a few minutes of cussing, take a walk. Keep your wits about you and stay calm.
Now, when the recovery teams arrive…. If you pass a line-man, pole-digger or crew say thanks. Just simple “thanks”. Wave at them and give them a thumbs-up. No need to get all unnecessarily familiar, a simple “thank you for your help” will generally suffice. You know, ordinary people skills.
Many of these smaller crews will be sleeping in cots, or in their trucks while they are working never-ending shifts. If you eventually start getting power back, and see a crew in a restaurant, same thing applies… “thanks guys”. If you can pay their tab, do it. If you can pay their tab without them knowing, even better.
Same goes for the tanker truckers. The convenience stores with gas pumps are part of the priority network. Those will get power before other locales without power. Fuel outlets are a priority. Hospitals, first responders, emergency facilities, fuel outlets, then comes commercial and residential.
Remember, you are the first responder for your neighborhood. Don’t quit.
Recovery is a process. Depending on the scale of the impact zone, the process can take days, weeks and even months. Take care of your family, friends and neighborhood, and generally make a conscious decision to be a part of any needed solution.
It’ll be ok.
It might be a massive pain in the a**, but in the end, it’ll be ok.
√Andrew
√Jeanne
√Frances
√Ivan
√Charley
√Irma
Keep a good thought. Who knows, we might even end up shaking hands.
It’ll be OK. Promise.
Washington Post: President Trump is “Complicit” in Creating Hurricane Florence…
September 12, 2018
Just when you think we might have reached peak Trump Derangement Syndrome; along comes an even bigger nut to raise the bar on crazy:
Apparently President Trump is such a significant presence he now commands control over planetary meteorology. Who knew?
Centinel2012 