China needs to buy dollars to backstop their own currency (¥uan). When China trades with the U.S. they hold the return dollars as a peg against their weak currency.  Remove the flow of dollars (lessen exports) and they start to run out of strong pegged currency.

What is happening today is not as much direct devaluation by China; rather they are intentionally allowing their currency to drop in value, in an effort to lower export prices and off-set any tariffs from the U.S.   Simultaneously, Beijing is spending internally, burning cash, to keep their economy from weakening.  Their Yuan burn rate is greater than the influx of higher valued dollars needed to hold their position.

They cannot keep this position indefinitely.

First, here’s a solid interview with former CEO Gerald Storch on how the currency devaluation leads to lower prices for U.S. consumers.  Again, emphasizing the point that U.S. consumers are not paying for the tariffs against China.  Watch:

President Trump responds to the current activity by China:

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Beijing says they will keep lowering the value of their currency to keep the flow of cheap Chinese manufactured goods flowing to the United States, regardless of tariffs.  Simultaneously they need the returning higher valued dollars to prop-up their own diminishing currency.

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Hang on folks…. this is going to continue:

Earlier today President Donald Trump delivered remarks from the White House about the shooting incidents in El Paso, TX, and Dayton, OH.  [Video and Transcript]

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[Transcript]  – THE PRESIDENT: Good morning. My fellow Americans, this morning, our nation is overcome with shock, horror, and sorrow. This weekend, more than 80 people were killed or wounded in two evil attacks.

On Saturday morning, in El Paso, Texas, a wicked man went to a Walmart store, where families were shopping with their loved ones. He shot and murdered 20 people, and injured 26 others, including precious little children.

Then, in the early hours of Sunday morning in Dayton, Ohio, another twisted monster opened fire on a crowded downtown street. He murdered 9 people, including his own sister, and injured 27 others.

The First Lady and I join all Americans in praying and grieving for the victims, their families, and the survivors. We will stand by their side forever. We will never forget.

These barbaric slaughters are an assault upon our communities, an attack upon our nation, and a crime against all of humanity. We are outraged and sickened by this monstrous evil, the cruelty, the hatred, the malice, the bloodshed, and the terror. Our hearts are shattered for every family whose parents, children, husbands, and wives were ripped from their arms and their lives. America weeps for the fallen.

We are a loving nation, and our children are entitled to grow up in a just, peaceful, and loving society. Together, we lock arms to shoulder the grief, we ask God in Heaven to ease the anguish of those who suffer, and we vow to act with urgent resolve.

I want to thank the many law enforcement personnel who responded to these atrocities with the extraordinary grace and courage of American heroes.

I have spoken with Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, as well as Mayor Dee Margo of El Paso, Texas, and Mayor Nan Whaley of Dayton, Ohio, to express our profound sadness and unfailing support.

Today, we also send the condolences of our nation to President Obrador of Mexico, and all the people of Mexico, for the loss of their citizens in the El Paso shooting. Terrible, terrible thing.

I have also been in close contact with Attorney General Barr and FBI Director Wray. Federal authorities are on the ground, and I have directed them to provide any and all assistance required — whatever is needed.

The shooter in El Paso posted a manifesto online consumed by racist hate. In one voice, our nation must condemn racism, bigotry, and white supremacy. These sinister ideologies must be defeated. Hate has no place in America. Hatred warps the mind, ravages the heart, and devours the soul. We have asked the FBI to identify all further resources they need to investigate and disrupt hate crimes and domestic terrorism — whatever they need.

We must recognize that the Internet has provided a dangerous avenue to radicalize disturbed minds and perform demented acts. We must shine light on the dark recesses of the Internet, and stop mass murders before they start. The Internet, likewise, is used for human trafficking, illegal drug distribution, and so many other heinous crimes. The perils of the Internet and social media cannot be ignored, and they will not be ignored.

In the two decades since Columbine, our nation has watched with rising horror and dread as one mass shooting has followed another — over and over again, decade after decade.

We cannot allow ourselves to feel powerless. We can and will stop this evil contagion. In that task, we must honor the sacred memory of those we have lost by acting as one people. Open wounds cannot heal if we are divided. We must seek real, bipartisan solutions. We have to do that in a bipartisan manner. That will truly make America safer and better for all.

First, we must do a better job of identifying and acting on early warning signs. I am directing the Department of Justice to work in partisan — partnership with local, state, and federal agencies, as well as social media companies, to develop tools that can detect mass shooters before they strike.

As an example, the monster in the Parkland high school in Florida had many red flags against him, and yet nobody took decisive action. Nobody did anything. Why not?

Second, we must stop the glorification of violence in our society. This includes the gruesome and grisly video games that are now commonplace. It is too easy today for troubled youth to surround themselves with a culture that celebrates violence. We must stop or substantially reduce this, and it has to begin immediately. Cultural change is hard, but each of us can choose to build a culture that celebrates the inherent worth and dignity of every human life. That’s what we have to do.

Third, we must reform our mental health laws to better identify mentally disturbed individuals who may commit acts of violence and make sure those people not only get treatment, but, when necessary, involuntary confinement. Mental illness and hatred pulls the trigger, not the gun.

Fourth, we must make sure that those judged to pose a grave risk to public safety do not have access to firearms, and that, if they do, those firearms can be taken through rapid due process. That is why I have called for red flag laws, also known as extreme risk protection orders.

Today, I am also directing the Department of Justice to propose legislation ensuring that those who commit hate crimes and mass murders face the death penalty, and that this capital punishment be delivered quickly, decisively, and without years of needless delay.

These are just a few of the areas of cooperation that we can pursue. I am open and ready to listen and discuss all ideas that will actually work and make a very big difference.

Republicans and Democrats have proven that we can join together in a bipartisan fashion to address this plague. Last year, we enacted the STOP School Violence and Fix NICS Acts into law, providing grants to improve school safety and strengthening critical background checks for firearm purchases. At my direction, the Department of Justice banned bump stocks. Last year, we prosecuted a record number of firearms offenses. But there is so much more that we have to do.

Now is the time to set destructive partisanship aside — so destructive — and find the courage to answer hatred with unity, devotion, and love. Our future is in our control. America will rise to the challenge. We will always have and we always will win. The choice is ours and ours alone. It is not up to mentally ill monsters; it is up to us.

If we are able to pass great legislation after all of these years, we will ensure that those who were attacked will not have died in vain.

May God bless the memory of those who perished [DEL: in Toledo :DEL] . May God protect them. May God protect all of those from Texas to Ohio. May God bless the victims and their families. May God bless America.

Thank you very much. Thank you.

END 10:18 A.M. EDT

Originally outlined over two years ago. Reposted by request, because we are watching it play out in real time: Believe me, at the heart of the professional/political opposition the issue is the money; there are trillions at stake.

President Trump’s MAGAnomic trade and foreign policy agenda is jaw-dropping in scale, scope and consequence. There are multiple simultaneous aspects to each policy objective; they have been outlined for a long time, even before the election victory in November ’16.

If you get too far into the weeds the larger picture can be lost. CTH objective is to continue pointing focus toward the larger horizon, and then at specific inflection points to dive into the topic and explain how each moment is connected to the larger strategy.

Today we repost an earlier dive into how MAGAnomic policy interacts with multinational Wall Street, the stock market, the U.S. financial system and perhaps your personal financial value. Again, reference and source material is included at the end of the outline.

If you understand the basic elements behind the new dimension in American economics, you already understand how three decades of DC legislative and regulatory policy was structured to benefit Wall Street and not Main Street. The intentional shift in monetary policy is what created the distance between two entirely divergent economic engines.

REMEMBER […] there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street).

Investments, and the bets therein, expanded outside of the USA. hence, globalist investing…. investing in foreign manufacturing; multinational corporations moved manufacturing outside the U.S. and into Asia (China).

However, a second more consequential aspect happened simultaneously. The politicians became more valuable to the Wall Street team than the Main Street team; and Wall Street had deeper pockets because their economy was now larger.

As a consequence Wall Street started funding political candidates and asking for legislation and trade policies that benefited their, now international, interests.

When Main Street was purchasing the legislative influence the outcomes were -generally speaking- beneficial to Main Street, and by direct attachment those outcomes also benefited the average American inside the real economy.

When Wall Street began purchasing the legislative influence, the outcomes therein became beneficial to Wall Street. Those benefits are detached from improving the livelihoods of main street Americans because the benefits are “global”.

Global financial interests, multinational investment interests -and corporations therein- became the primary filter through which the DC legislative outcomes were considered.

There is a natural disconnect. (more)

As an outcome of national monetary policy allowing the blending of commercial banking with institutional investments (Glass-Stegal repeal), something happened on Wall Street that few understand. If we take the time to understand what happened we can understand why the Stock Market grew and what risks exist today as U.S. policy is reversed to benefit Main Street.

President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have already begun assembling and delivering a new banking system.

Instead of attempting to put Glass-Stegal regulations back into massive banking systems, the Trump administration began supporting a parallel, smaller financial system, of less-regulated small commercial banks, credit unions and traditional lenders who can operate to the benefit of Main Street without the burdensome regulation of the mega-banks and multinationals. This really is one of the more brilliant solutions to work around a uniquely American economic problem.

♦ When U.S. banks were allowed to merge their investment divisions with their commercial banking operations (the removal of Glass Stegal) something changed on Wall Street.

Companies who are evaluated based on their financial results, profits and losses, remained in their traditional role as traded stocks on the U.S. Stock Market and were evaluated accordingly. However, over time investment instruments -which are secondary to actual company results- created a sub-set within Wall Street that detached from actual bottom line company results.

The resulting secondary financial market system was essentially ‘investment markets’. Both ordinary company stocks and the investment market stocks operate on the same stock exchanges. But the underlying valuation is tied to entirely different metrics.

Financial products were developed (as investment instruments) that are essentially wagers or bets on the outcomes of actual companies traded on Wall Street. Those bets/wagers form the hedge markets and are [essentially] people trading on expectations of performance. The “derivatives market” is the ‘betting system’.

♦Ford Motor Company (only chosen as a commonly known entity) has a stock valuation based on their actual company performance in the market of manufacturing and consumer purchasing of their product. However, there can be thousands of financial instruments wagering on the actual outcome of their performance, both domestically and internationally.

There are two initial bets on these outcomes that form the basis for Hedge-fund activity. Bet ‘A’ that Ford hits a profit number, or bet ‘B’ that they don’t. There are financial instruments created to place each wager. [The wagers form the derivatives.] But it doesn’t stop there.

Additionally, more financial products are created that bet on the outcomes of the A/B bets. A secondary financial product might find two sides betting on both A outcome and B outcome.

Party C bets the “A” bet is accurate, and party D bets against the A bet. Party E bets the “B” bet is accurate, and party F bets against the B. If it stopped there we would only have six total participants. But it doesn’t stop there, it goes on and on and on…

The outcome of the bets forms the basis for the tenuous investment markets. The important part to understand is that the investment funds are not necessarily attached to the original company stock, they are now attached to the outcome of bet(s). Hence an inherent disconnect is created.

Subsequently, if the actual stock doesn’t meet it’s expected P-n-L outcome (if the company actually doesn’t do well), and if the financial investment was betting against the outcome, the value of the investment actually goes up. The company performance and the investment bets on the outcome of that performance are two entirely different aspects of the stock market. [Hence two metrics.]

♦Understanding the disconnect between an actual company on the stock market, and the bets for and against that company stock, helps to understand what can happen when monetary policy and trade policy is geared toward helping the underlying company (Main Street MAGAnomics), and not toward the bets therein (Wall St – Investment).

The U.S. stock markets’ overall value can increase with Main Street policy, and yet the investment class can simultaneously decrease in value even though the company(ies) in the stock market is/are doing better. This detachment is critical to understand because the ‘real economy’ is based on the company, the ‘paper economy’ is based on the financial investment instruments betting on the company.

Trillions can be lost in investment instruments, and yet the overall stock market -as valued by company operations/profits- can increase.

Conversely, there are now classes of companies on the U.S. stock exchange that never make a dime in profit, yet the value of the company increases. This dynamic is possible because the financial investment bets are not connected to the bottom line profit. (Examples include Tesla Motors, Uber and Amazon, and a host of internet stocks.) It is this investment group of companies that stands to lose the most if/when the underlying system of betting on them stops or slows.

Specifically due to most recent U.S. monetary policy, modern multinational banks, including all of the investment products therein, are more closely attached to this investment system on Wall Street. It stands to reason they are at greater risk of financial losses overall with a shift in policy.

That financial and economic risk is the basic reason behind Trump and Mnuchin putting a protective, secondary and parallel, banking system in place for Main Street.

Big multinational banks can suffer big losses from their overseas investments; and yet the Main Street economy can continue growing, and have access to capital, uninterrupted.

U.S. companies who have actual connection to a growing internal U.S. economy can succeed; based on the advantages of the new economic environment and MAGA trade policy, specifically in the areas of manufacturing, domestic supply chain and the ancillary benefactors.

Meanwhile U.S. investment assets (multinational investment portfolios) that are disconnected from the actual results of those benefiting U.S. companies, and as a consequence also disconnected from the U.S. economic expansion, can simultaneously drop in value even though the U.S. economy is thriving.  Those assets are heavily dependent on prior overseas investments in China.

♦China and the EU have devalued their currency, and continue to devalue their currency, in an effort to block the impacts from President Trump and the ‘America First’ trade policy.  In essence they are trying to maintain their part of a global economic system of manufacturing and export.

However, because those currencies are pegged against the dollar, the resulting effect is a rising dollar value. In essence, the globalist IMF is now blaming President Trump for having a strong economy that forces international competition to devalue their currency.

That’s the stupid hypocrisy of global banking outlooks. They make a decision to devalue their currency, which causes the dollar value to rise, and then turn around and blame the U.S. dollar for being overvalued.

The root cause of the devaluation is unaddressed in the Wall Street/Globalist argument. The EU and China are trying to retain their global manufacturing position and offset the impact of President Trump’s tariffs by lowering the end value of their exports.

President Trump is now engaged in a massive and multidimensional effort to re-balance the entire global trade and wealth dynamic. By putting tariffs on foreign imports he has counterbalanced the never-ending Marshall Plan trade program and demanded renegotiation(s).

Trump’s trade goal is reciprocity; free and fair trade.  However, the EU and Asia, specifically China, don’t want to give up a decades-long multi-generational advantage. This is part of the fight.

Because so many shifts -policy nudges- have taken place in the past several decades few academics and even fewer MSM observers are able to understand or explain how Trump planned to get off the service-driven economic path and chart a better course.

President Trump began a process for less dependence on foreign companies for cheap goods, (the cornerstone of a service economy), and began a return to a more balanced U.S. larger economic model where the manufacturing and a production base can be re-established and competitive based on American entrepreneurship and innovation.

No other economy in the world innovates like the U.S.A, Trump sees this as a key advantage across all industry – including manufacturing.  The benefit of cheap overseas labor, which is considered a global market disadvantage for the U.S, is offset by utilizing innovation and energy independence.  Additionally, the wage rates in the Asian manufacturing economies have risen as their national wealth has increased.

The third highest variable cost of goods beyond raw materials first, labor second, is energy.  By unleashing the energy sector -fully developed- the manufacturing price of any given product will allow for global trade competition even with higher U.S. wage prices.

In 2019 the Total Cost of Production (TCP) is now entirely different than it was in 2016.

The U.S. has a key strategic advantage with raw manufacturing materials such as: iron ore, coal, steel, precious metals and vast mineral assets which are needed in most new modern era manufacturing.  Trump’s policies stopped selling those valuable national assets to countries we compete against – they belong to the American people, they should be used for the benefit of American citizens. Period.

As the U.S. economy expands; and as blue-collar manufacturing returns; the demand for labor increases, and as a consequence so too does the U.S. wage rate (currently +3.4%) which was stagnant (or non-existent) for the past three decades.  Total compensation for U.S. workers is now growing at a +5.5 percent rate.

As the wage rate increases, and as the economy expands, the governmental dependency model is reshaped and simultaneously receipts to the U.S. treasury improve. More money into the U.S Treasury and less dependence on welfare programs have a combined exponential impact. You gain a dollar, and have no need to spend a dollar.

As the GDP of the U.S. expands, we stop thinking about how to best divide a limited economic pie, and begin thinking about how many more economic pies we can create.

So yeah, there’s going to be pain – for them: massive economic pain as the process of reestablishing a fair trading system is rebuilt; and also for U.S. interests that are dependent on returns from prior investments in China.

The dynamic of reciprocal and balanced trade is the essential policy that benefits Main Street USA.  Unfortunately, in the initial phase where putting ‘America First’ is the priority, the policy is against the interests of the multinationals on Wall Street connected to Chinese manufacturing.

As a result, President Trump has to fight adverse economic opponents on multiple fronts…. and their purchased mercenary army we know as DC politicians….

♦The Modern Third Dimension in American Economics – HERE

♦How Multinationals have Exported U.S. Wealth – HERE

♦The “Fed” Can’t Figure out the New Economics – HERE

♦The FED Begins to Question the Economic Assumptions – HERE

♦Treasury Secretary Mnuchin begins creating a Parallel Banking System – HERE

♦Proof “America-First” has disconnected Main Street from Wall Street – HERE

[Unrelated, Chinese financial markets are off-the-charts tonight as the currency is dropping like a rock, Beijing is intervening to stop the bleeding…. and Hong Kong workers are going on strike. Yikes, could be trouble.]

Earlier today while departing from Morristown municipal airport, President Trump and First Lady Melania delivered remarks to the media. [Video and Transcript below]

“Hate has no place in our country”…

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[Transcript] –  THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. I want to extend our condolences to the people of El Paso, Texas, and Dayton, Ohio. They’re incredible people and they’ve been through a lot.

I just want to also thank the law enforcement in both places. The job they’ve done is incredible. I also want to congratulate them. I mean, nobody could have done what they’ve done. This could have been — as bad as it was, it could have been so much worse.

I just have to thank them. The job they’ve done is incredible. And they were right on the ball in El Paso; they were there so quickly. And, in Dayton, in less than a minute — think of the damage he did in just a short period of time — in less than a minute, the law enforcement acted and killed him. And it would have been unbelievable. It was — it would have been — it was horrible, but it would have been so much worse. It could have been so much worse.

I just want to say that these are two incredible places. We love the people. Hate has no place in our country. And we’re going to take care of it.

I spoke with Attorney General Bill Barr at length; I spoke to Christopher Wray, Director of the FBI; I spoke to the governors — both governors — and we’re doing a lot of work. A lot of people are working right now — a lot of law enforcement people and others. I spoke to members of Congress about whatever we can do and a lot of — a lot of things are being done right now, as we speak.

I’ll be making a statement tomorrow sometime. But just on behalf of our First Lady and myself, condolences to all. We have to get it stopped. This has been going on for years — for years and years — in our country. And we have to get it stopped.

So thank you very much. And I will be making a statement tomorrow at about 10 o’clock. And I’ll see you there. Thank you all very much.

Q What are you going to do about the problem of automatic and semiauto- —

THE PRESIDENT: You have to talk up.

Q The gun problem. What are you going to do about it? What — how are you going to address it?

THE PRESIDENT: We’re talking to a lot of people, and a lot of things are in the works, and a lot of good things. And we have done much more than most administrations. And it does — it’s not — really not talked about very much, but we’ve done, actually, a lot. But perhaps more has to be done.

But this is also a mental illness problem. If you look at both of these cases, this is mental illness. These are peop- — really, people that are very, very seriously mentally ill. So a lot of things are happening. A lot of things are happening right now.

And I will see you tomorrow at 10 o’clock. Thank you.

END 4:35 P.M. EDT

It has always been clear that Fox News pundit Chris Wallace is a defender of all swamp activity based on his social network within the same cocktail circuit; however, today he completely dropped all pretense and launched a full propaganda effort on behalf of Wall Street, Multinational Corporations and the Global Financial Community.

White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro appears on Fox News and Wallace literally takes the talking points of Goldman Sachs Asian Investment Division, complete with graphics, and attempts to argue -despite empirical evidence to the contrary- that tariffs have made consumer prices rise.   This segment is just ridiculous:

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To retain their export position -and offset the tariffs- China and the EU have devalued their currency; and China is directly subsiding their manufacturers.  A lower ¥uan, and a lower €uro make the value of the dollar rise.  That means it takes less dollars to import Chinese and European goods.  That means prices do not rise.  That’s just a fact.

Additionally, the graphic made by Fox News to push their propaganda is literally from Goldman Sachs, Asian Investment Division.  Look:

Also notice how they use 103% index to make it appear a big number.  Ridiculous.  It’s 3 percent… which entirely proves the point being made by Navarro and President Trump.  The 25% tariffs have been in place for over a year.  The Steel and Aluminum tariffs are almost two years old…. and yet the cumulative effect of all that is 3% to consumers?

DUH !!  That’s Navarro’s argument proved in Wallace’s stupid graphic.

Inflation is currently wiggling around 1.4 to 1.5 percent while the rest of the world tries to avoid higher prices to U.S. consumers because they don’t want to lose their market position in the most valuable economy, the USA.

Goldman Sachs, just like the rest of the Wall Street multinationals, have invested billions in overseas manufacturing while ignoring the impact to Main Street USA.   Now they are fighting to keep the ‘rust belt’ rusty.

The IMF is now upgrading their forecast of U.S. economic growth; and admitting -in essence- that President Trump’s America-First agenda is relocating global wealth back to the primary host nation known as the U.S.A.   The increase in their forecast isn’t a small increase, it is essentially adding .3 percent (from 2.3% to 2.6%) or $60 billion more.

The U.S. economy was the host for around 50 years of parasitic wealth exfiltration, or as most would say “distribution”.  [Note I use the term *exfiltration* because it better highlights that American citizens paid higher prices for stuff, and paid higher taxes within the overall economic scheme, than was needed.]

President Trump is the first and only president who said: “enough”, and prior politicians who didn’t stop the process were “stupid” etc. etc.  Obviously, he is 100% correct.

For the past 30 years the U.S. was a sucker to keep letting the process remain in place while we lost our manufacturing base to overseas incentives.  The investment process from Wall Street (removal of Glass-Stegal) only made the process much more severe and faster.  Wall Street was now investing in companies whose best bet (higher profit return) was to pour money overseas.  This process created the “Rust Belt”, and damn near destroyed the aggregate manufacturing industry.

Fast forward to 2017 through today, and President Trump is now engaged in a massive and multidimensional effort to re-balance the entire global wealth dynamic.  By putting tariffs on foreign imports he has counterbalanced the never-ending Marshal Plan trade program and demanded renegotiation(s).  Trump’s goal is reciprocity; however, the EU and Asia, specifically China, don’t want to give up a decades-long multi-generational advantage.  This is part of the fight.

One could argue that China’s rise happened inside this period, and as a consequence they have no comprehension of an economic history without the institutional advantages.  They’ve never competed with the U.S. under any terms of equivelence or fairness; they’ve only ever known the advantages.  Combine that with the Chinese communist mindset and you get the extreme severity of their position.

So yeah, there’s going to be pain – for them; massive economic pain – as the process of reestablishing a fair trading system is rebuilt.  This dynamic is the essence of reciprocity that benefits Main Street USA.  Unfortunately, putting ‘America First’ is now also against the interests of the multinationals on Wall Street; so President Trump has to fight adverse economic opponents on multiple fronts…. and their purchased mercenary army we know as DC politicians.

No-one, ever, could take on all these interests.  Think about it…  The EU, Asia, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, China, Russia, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Iran, U.S. Congress, Democrats, U.S. Senate, Wall Street, the Big Club, Lobbyists, Hollywood, Corporate Media (foreign and domestic), and the ankle-biters in Never Trump…. All of these financial interests are aligned against Main Street USA and against President Trump.