Moments Away – Inspector General Report on James Comey To Be Released Any Day…


Now that we know the Department of Justice Inspector General is about to release a report on former FBI Director James Comey; and now that we know the OIG Principal Review Phase was already initiated; we can start to monitor the IG Website for the release.

NOTE: This is NOT the IG report on DOJ and FBI conduct about IG FISA abuses. This is a carve-out report, specific to James Comey and his leaked memos.

It appears the pending IG report will cover the conduct of James Comey and how he handled a series of memos he produced; contemporaneous accounts written by Comey covering events he documented outside of normal FBI protocol.

As part of the process, the inspector general report has been given to James Comey in advance.  According to John Solomon reporting, Comey lawyers Patrick Fitzgerald and Daniel Richman, along with spokesperson Keith Urbahn are all participating in his review of the report content.  This is called the “Principal Review Phase”.

In the example of the 2018 IG report on Andrew McCabe, the OIG gave McCabe’s team a week during the principal review phase, and then published the report two days after the responses were submitted. [McCabe Report Reviewed] We don’t know how long James Comey has had the report, but my hunch is several days.

If the IG sticks to the same general feedback timeline as the McCabe report, we could see a final IG report very soon; perhaps even as early as tomorrow (Friday August 2nd); which would line-up with the DOJ request for additional time in the Comey Memo/Archey Declaration FOIA case in the DC Circuit (Judge James Boasberg) also due Aug 2nd, and possibly delayed due to the background of the Comey IG report being released.

Regardless of connection to the FOIA case, the IG report on James Comey is going to become public very soon.

The inspector general along with the OIG referencer, may (not required) include the responses from Comey’s team as part of their final report.  If Horowitz does include Comey’s responses, likely responses from Comey’s legal team, Horowitz will almost certainly include rebuttals to those responses in his final report.

The report itself is likely quite damning as pre-release reporting by John Solomon outlines the IG sent criminal referrals to the DOJ (John Huber) as part of the overall review.

The DOJ has reportedly declined prosecution on the referral; however, there may be extrajudicial reasons why that declination has taken place. [ex. if the DOJ wants to declassify and release the memos, as part of a larger investigative release.]

Now, it’s important to remember…. No-one knows the number of memos that James Comey has written.  [We may get that answer in the IG report.]  There are nine memos written by James Comey surrounding contact and conversations with President-elect and then President Trump (2016/2017).

However, based on the court declarations by Mueller’s former lead FBI investigator David Archey, it sounds like there are many more memos than anyone currently understands; including memos about the investigation of candidate Trump, that were written during the “Crossfire Hurricane” investigation 2016 and 2017, that describe investigative details, sources, operations and code-names of intelligence assets used in the investigation.

It is also worth remembering that James Comey leaked his memos to Daniel Richman so that Richman could act as a go-between to pass the information along to the New York Times.  Richman was not only Comey’s friend, it was later discovered that Richman was an unpaid FBI employee given special access by James Comey.

Fox News Catherine Herridge detailed how Daniel Richman held special access privileges to the FBI, as an outcome of former FBI Director James Comey authorizing his friend as a “Special Government Employee” or SGE.

(VIA FOX) […] The professor, Daniel Richman, confirmed the special status in response to an inquiry from Fox News, while referring other questions, including on the scope of his work, to the FBI.

“I did indeed have SGE status with the Bureau (for no pay),” Richman wrote in an email.

Richman emerged last year as the former FBI director’s contact for leaking memos documenting his private discussions with President Trump – memos that are now the subject of an inspector general review over the presence of classified material.

Sources familiar with Richman’s status at the FBI told Fox News that he was assigned to “special projects” by Comey, and had a security clearance as well as badge access to the building. Richman’s status was the subject of a Memorandum of Understanding.  (read more)

A few paragraphs later in the article about Richman you might pay particular attention to this: “Richman’s portfolio included the use of encrypted communications by terror suspects.”

How did Daniel Richman review “encrypted communication”?  Well, likely through access to the FBI/NSA database.  The same database outlined by FISA Judge Rosemary Collyer:

It seems too coincidental to be disconnected. [Backstory]

When considering who were the FBI contractors, with special program access to the NSA database, conducting unauthorized searches and extracting results… there’s a specific type of contractor described by FISA Judge Rosemary Collyer.  One who was able to work around the security protocols: [Page 21] “systems …. that do not interface with NSA’s query audit system“.

I have my suspicions, [backstory] but we would need to see the fully unredacted Collyer FISA report to get the answers.

I digress.

After it was revealed that Richman was an exclusive special government employee of FBI Director Comey; and after it was revealed that Richman was the go-between for the leaked memo distribution; James Comey said Daniel Richman was also his lawyer.

Calling Richman his personal lawyer, conveniently has the benefit of taking Richman away from the reach of the current DOJ investigators via attorney/client privilege.

So we await the IG report on James Comey which could come at any time; and I suspect there will be some good information included within it for those who do research.  The primary question I have is whether the declination to prosecute now means the report will contain the actual memos.

Additionally, knowing this report is soon to be released it will be interesting to see how the DOJ responds to Judge Boasberg tomorrow in the FOIA case that involves the Comey memos.

Stay tuned…

Peter Navarro Discusses MAGAnomics, Tariffs and GDP with Maria Bartiromo….


An excellent discussion between White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro and Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo about the current state of President Trump’s Main Street policy and economy.  The second half of the interview is the best part. Navarro outlines the background of the second quarter GDP result, and he hits the nail on the head. Hi Pete.

As CTH previously highlighted, the two primary drags on the Q2 release are also the most volatile: Export/Import contributions (-.65%), and Inventory contributions (-.86%) [table 2]. However, consumer spending was much stronger than anticipated (+4.3%) showing the internal strength of the U.S. labor market and the impact of wage growth which now exceeds 5.5 percent.  The rebound in Q3 is going to be very, very good.

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Note to Mr. Navarro: Enjoy the winning. Relax, you’re solid. Despite the financial punditry class consistently trying to downbeat the good news; you don’t have to carry the burden of adversarialism. You’re a good warrior; we know.  You don’t have to prove your salt. The American people can see the results, and the entire MAGAnomic team, including you, have our full support. Have some fun.

GO PLACIDLY amid the noise and the haste, and remember what peace there may be in silence. As far as possible, without surrender, be on good terms with all persons.

Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even to the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.

Avoid loud and aggressive persons; they are vexatious to the spirit. If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain or bitter, for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself.

Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans. Keep interested in your own career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time.

Exercise caution in your business affairs, for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many persons strive for high ideals, and everywhere life is full of heroism.

Be yourself. Especially do not feign affection. Neither be cynical about love; for in the face of all aridity and disenchantment, it is as perennial as the grass.

Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth.

Nurture strength of spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with dark imaginings. Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness.

Beyond a wholesome discipline, be gentle with yourself. You are a child of the universe no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here.

And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therefore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive Him to be. And whatever your labors and aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life, keep peace in your soul. With all its sham, drudgery and broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be cheerful. Strive to be happy.

By Max Ehrmann © 1927
Original text

 

Reconciling John Solomon’s Reporting on Comey…


To say there is broad-based confusion is an understatement.  The recent reporting by John Solomon of The Hill only makes the confusion worse.  Let’s stand back and reconcile two issues (with evidence to support) that are MASSIVELY conflated.

First, go read the full Solomon article.  Notice the entire construct of the article surrounds “The Comey Memos“.  As you will see, this specific topic is important.  Within the Solomon article you will find (emphasis mine):

[…] Inspector General (IG) Michael Horowitz’s team referred Comey for possible prosecution under the classified information protection laws, but Department of Justice (DOJ) prosecutors working for Attorney General William Barr reportedly have decided to decline prosecution — a decision that’s likely to upset Comey’s conservative critics.

Prosecutors found the IG’s findings compelling but decided not to bring charges because they did not believe they had enough evidence of Comey’s intent to violate the law, according to multiple sources.

[…] Patrick Fitzgerald and Daniel Richman, two of Comey’s lawyers, and Keith Urbahn, his spokesman, did not return repeated calls and emails seeking comment.

[…] While they cautioned that the IG’s final report won’t be complete until it gets feedback from Comey’s lawyers in the next few days, it is expected to conclude that the former FBI director improperly took with him memos that were FBI property when he was fired, transmitted classified information via an insecure email account, and shared some of the memos with his private lawyers.  (read more)

It sounds like the OIG report on FISA abuse is in the end-stages.  What is described in the highlighted sentence above would be what is technically called “The Principal Review Phase of the OIG Final Draft”.  That’s where targets are given the opportunity to review an IG report and provide feedback prior to public release.

However…. Note:  This reference is not to the IG report on FISA Abuse.

Full Stop.

Repeat:  This is NOT the Inspector General Michael Horowitz report on DOJ and FBI FISA abuse.

This is a carve-out.

John Solomon is conflating two distinct issues…. and there is no effort to explain, because the sourcing is compartmentalized.   Now the comment earlier in the week by Matthew Whitaker makes sense.  Bear with me….

From the outset it was reported and confirmed that U.S. Attorney John Huber was assigned to assist Inspector General Michael Horowitz.  Huber’s job was to stand-by in case the IG carved out a particular concern, discovered during his investigation, that might involve criminal conduct.

Earlier this week Matt Whitaker said: “John Huber is reviewing anything related to Comey’s memos and the like.

Put the two data points together and what you realize is that during the OIG review of potential DOJ and FBI FISA abuse… IG Horowitz investigated the Comey Memo’s and then passed that specific issue along to John Huber for DOJ review.

The IG criminal referral for the James Comey memo leaking was a carve-out sent to U.S. Attorney John Huber.

Back to the Solomon article, only this time I will insert modified clarifying language to highlight what happened:

[…] Inspector General (IG) Michael Horowitz’s team referred Comey [to John Huber] for possible prosecution under the classified information protection laws, but [John Huber, working for AG Bill Barr] reportedly has decided to decline prosecution — a decision that’s likely to upset Comey’s conservative critics.

John Huber found the IG’s findings compelling but decided not to bring charges because he did not believe they had enough evidence of Comey’s intent to violate the law, according to multiple sources.

This is a carve-out IG report and referral; with a specific target of James Comey; based on evidence discovered during the larger OIG review of possible FISA abuse.

Now the ‘Principal Review Phase‘ makes sense, because the only principal is James Comey.  Therefore the IG has written a final draft report specific to James Comey and his memos. James Comey and his lawyers are now reviewing that final draft report and will provide feedback.

Inspector General Michael Horowitz, together with the OIG referencer, may put the response from Comey in the report along with additional rebuttal from the Inspector General’s office.

That process will generate a final IG report; but the report is only specific to the Comey memo aspect and James Comey’s conduct in handling that memo content.  That IG report on James Comey will be released pretty soon, likely within the next week.

This is not the inspector general report on DOJ and FBI FISA abuse.  This is an IG report carved out of the larger investigation.

Bottom Line: We are soon going to see an IG report exclusively on James Comey.

Does that make sense now?

FOIA Release: FBI Agents Picked Up Comey Memos From His House Day Before Senate Testimony…


A recent FOIA release from Judicial Watch (full pdf below) reveals that two of Mueller’s initial FBI agents, based on dates and redactions – likely Peter Strzok and Joe Pientka, visited James Comey on June 7th, 2017, to retrieve a collection of his memos.

[However, a word of caution, one of the memos was titled “last night at 6:30pm” and is being widely misinterpreted to have been written the night before (June 6th, 2017) when that is not accurate.  It is likely that memo relates to the January dinner in the White House with President Trump that held the same sentence.]

(pdf here)

If we ignore the misinterpreted “last night” memo aspect (dinner with potus in January ’17), here’s what we can learn from this FOIA release:

♦First, the memos were picked up while FBI agent’s Peter Strzok and Joe Pientka were lead FBI agents that transferred into the Mueller team.  Therefore it’s likely they were the two who traveled to Comey’s house for this June 7th effort.

♦Second, the memos were picked up June 7th, 2017, the day before James Comey appeared before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, June 8th, 2017 [See Link].

It was during this June 8th SSCI committee testimony where Comey first revealed the scope of his memo keeping.  Keep in mind, all prior research shows SSCI Chairman Richard Burr and SSCI Vice-Chair Mark Warner were part of the corrupt effort against President Trump.  Their committee was where leaker James Wolfe (sleeping with journalist Ali Watkins) was operational.  The SSCI was part of the aggregate coup effort.

WARNER: I think that’s a very important statement you just made. Then, unlike your dealings with presidents of either parties in your past experience, in every subsequent meeting or conversation with this president, you created a written record. Did you feel that you needed to create this written record of these memos, because they might need to be relied on at some future date?

COMEY: Sure. I created records after conversations that I think I did it after each of our nine conversations. If I didn’t, I did it for nearly all of them especially the ones that were substantive. I knew there might come a day when I would need a record of what had happened, not just to defend myself, but to defend the FBI and our integrity as an institution and the Independence of our investigative function. That’s what made this so difficult is it was a combination of circumstances, subject matter and the particular person.

WARNER: I think that is very significant. I think others will probably question that. Now, the chairman and I have requested those memos. It is our hope that the FBI will get this committee access to those memos so again, we can read that contemporaneous rendition so that we’ve got your side of the story. – Transcript Link

Understanding the timeline; and overlaying the ideological intents and purposes; it would make sense that Robert Mueller and the ‘small group’ would want to exploit the memo content (hell, they likely knew all about it as soon as written), and simultaneously keep those memos buried and under their ‘small group’ control.

By taking custody of the memos, the Mueller investigative team would be able to block any outside inquiry.  That’s the motive for the FBI visit to James Comey on June 7th, 2017.  Comey could then talk about the memos the next day while knowing the ‘small group’ would use the “ongoing investigation” to keep them hidden from review.

Senators Mark Warner, Richard Burr and the media would be able to frame discussion of the memos to undermine President Trump, while knowing the memos would be kept out of public review.  With hindsight go back and review the SSCI testimony; this approach appears to have been pre-planned.

Here is the FOIA release on the FBI records:

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Now lets overlay the Archey Declarations” against the FOIA release.

David Archey was the lead FBI agent who took over the Mueller investigation after FBI agent Peter Strzok was removed.   David Archey came into the small group effort in August of 2017.

After the media sued the DOJ and FBI to get the Comey memos, David Archey described them.  Now we find a disparity.

David Archey gave sworn testimony to DC Circuit Judge Boasberg that the memos were assembled by the FBI “on or by May 12, 2017”.

(pdf source – page #3 of declaration #3)

Obviously if the FBI was picking up memos on June 7th, 2017, the Archey declaration to the court is incorrect.   However, remember, Archey didn’t join the team until August 2017, so his sworn statement in October 2017 has to be based on information from others.

Regardless of how the error was made, a lie – or intentional mistake, the declaration to Judge James Boasberg was obviously inaccurate.

Again, the bottom line is the Comey Memos (of unknown quantity) contain a diary of record keeping by FBI Director James Comey.  Obviously he was writing these memos because he was covering his ass.   The fact that he was keeping these notes at home, and/or he moved the memos to his home after the election, is even more indication that Comey knew the operation against President Trump had the potential to go sideways.

I would strongly advise everyone to be familiar with the Archey Declarations (pdf below) which are descriptions of the Comey memo content.

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The DOJ has until August 2nd, 2019 (Friday), to file a response to the CNN motion supporting an earlier court order that mandated the release of the Archey Declarations

[Full Backstory].

Comeuppance – Chinese Aluminum Billionaire Indicted in $1.8 Billion Tariff Evasion Scheme…


We previously outlined Mr. Zhongtian Liu [HERE] as part of the early 2018 explanation for how China was exploiting the NAFTA loophole as an end-run around tariffs.  Today the Central District of California U.S. Attorney announces his indictment.

LOS ANGELES– A federal grand jury indictment unsealed late Tuesday alleges a complex financial fraud scheme in which a Chinese company exported to the United States huge amounts of aluminum – disguised as “pallets” to avoid customs duties of up to 400 percent – and “sold” the purported pallets to related entities to fraudulently inflate the company’s revenues and deceive investors around the world.

The 53-page indictment alleges that China Zhongwang Holdings Limited, Asia’s largest aluminum extrusion company; Zhongtian Liu, the company’s former president and chairman; and several individual and corporate co-defendants lied to U.S. Customs and Border Protection to avoid paying the United States $1.8 billion in anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) that were imposed in 2011 on certain types of extruded aluminum imported into the United States from China.

The aluminum sold to United States-based companies controlled by Liu were simply aluminum extrusions that were spot-welded together to make them appear to be functional pallets, which would be finished goods not subject to the duties, according to the indictment. In reality, there were no customers for the 2.2 million pallets imported by the Liu-controlled companies between 2011 and 2014, and no pallets were ever sold. (read more)

Photograph of Mr. Liu Zhongtian’s aluminum stockpile hidden in Mexico.

MAGA Irrelevant – Federal Reserve Cuts Rate Quarter Point, First Since ’08 – Why It Doesn’t Matter…


In 2015 CTH outlined how candidate Donald Trump’s proposals were in-line with those who had long argued for a return of “economic nationalism”.  We also outlined when those proposals (now policy) are implemented, Fed action would be essentially irrelevant.

The Federal Reserve is pegged to the Wall Street Economy.  President Trump’s policies are pegged to the Main Street Economy.  There is a disconnect; a new dimension in U.S. economics; and very few people understand what happens in this space between them.

Thirty-five years ago Fed monetary policy impacted the U.S. economy directly because almost all activity (durable good manufacturing) was within our borders.  The natural dynamic of inflation could be influenced by the Fed.  Rate changes could offset inflation and also enhance domestic investment etc.

However, as time progressed that manufacturing activity -the basic underpinning of middle-class jobs, wages etc- shifted overseas.  When monetary policy became controlled by multinationals (Wall Street influencers purchasing politicians), capital investment moved to generate purely higher profits.  Businesses, specifically manufacturing, went abroad.  As a consequence the determination of prices, ie ‘inflation’, was no longer influenced by the Fed because the actual economic activity was/is outside the U.S. borders.

We see this today.

President Trump’s middle-class policy, through tariffs, is intended to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.  China and the EU are trying to keep their manufacturing foothold by devaluing their currency and subsidizing their industries.

This action by China and the EU lowers the value of their currency, increases the value of the dollar, and simultaneously lowers the prices of their exports.  This offsets the U.S. tariffs, and the China/EU stuff costs less to import.  In essence, we import deflation.

No action by the U.S. Fed can change this pricing mechanism because the price determination is outside the reach of the Fed.  Hence, the disconnect.

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar rose to two-year highs on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, having made the first cut to interest rates since 2008, signaled the move was not the start of a rate-cutting cycle.

[…] In a widely expected move, the U.S. central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to shore up the economy against risks including global weakness. But in the subsequent press conference, Powell said he viewed the cut as a “mid-cycle policy adjustment” rather than a broader loosening of monetary policy.

[…]  The statement upended expectations of some market participants who anticipated confirmation of further rate cuts. A day prior, traders had forecast at 35% chance of three cuts by the end of the year; on Wednesday afternoon that figure had fallen to 12%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

“They acknowledged strong labor markets, recent reasonable signs of moderate growth. It still leaves the playing field wide open as to what they’re going to do in future months,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Bank in Boston. (more)

♦RATE CHANGES –  Currently multinational investment is in a holding pattern, waiting to see what happens with President Trump’s global trade reset.  Manufacturing multinationals don’t know exactly where to put their investment money because they are waiting to see what happens with trade and tariffs.   They don’t want to invest in a new China factory only to see the end product become subject to POTUS Trump tariffs.

The Fed views those stalled investment dollars through the prism of a global economy, their historic reference.  Financial pundits have also been selling the global economy model for 35 years; so they too mistakenly view stalled (unappropriated) investment dollars as a sign the U.S. economy might be weakening.  It ain’t.

We are in the aforementioned flux space where Trump is favoring Main Street…. and all trade policy is shifted therein.

U.S. Federal Reserve lending rates won’t make the multinationals move their investment money until the geopolitical trade reset is worked out.  Ergo, lower Fed rates won’t currently help Wall Street…. Nor will lower Fed rates have much impact on Main Street because internal U.S. economic influences are larger and stronger than the Fed influence.

Because the Fed cannot influence prices of manufactured goods, the Fed cannot influence inflation.  The U.S. worker wage rates are stronger than any inflation; again the disconnect that CTH has noted for three years that will work in favor of the middle-class.

So long as the Fed is pegged to Wall Street, meaning has primary focus on lending to U.S. manufacturing multinationals; and as long as that lending (investment) is stalled pending the outcome of Trump’s trade and economic reset; the Fed is essentially irrelevant on the bigger dynamic.

If a variable rate mortgage loan goes up by $100/month, and simultaneously (outside of the Fed influence) the worker is getting a $300/month wage increase (currently 5.5% wage growth), there is no material negative impact.

If a variable rate mortgage loan goes down by $100/month, and the worker is still getting a $300/month wage increase, blue collar spending and savings jumps [current status], no substantive downside.   The blue-collar spending is a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is the reason why we noted in 2016 the Fed would essentially be irrelevant to Main Street.

The Fed remains pegged to Wall Street.

Trump policy remains pegged to Main Street.

We are in the space between.

Until this dynamic changes and the majority of the underlying economic activity is returned to the U.S action by the Fed is essentially moot to Main Street.

Once the U.S. economy rebalances; meaning once the trade policy brings more production based manufacturing and assembly back into the U.S; and once we reverse the 35-year Wall Street dynamic and become a more production-driven economy (where the best return on investment is inside the USA); then yes, Fed action will start to have influence.

When? Once the USMCA is ratified, President Trump will trigger tariffs on China. This will move all of the multinationals who are in a ‘holding pattern’ because they will see what areas are safe.  Capital investment will flow very fast.

Where? The China exodus will benefit North America (USMCA) and those ASEAN nations who have partnered with Trump and made proactive trade agreements.  That’s where the capital investment will flow.

MAGAnomics – BEA: Upward Revisions – Blue Collar Wage Growth 5.5% in June, Inflation Remains 1.4%


The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released significant wage and salary datayesterday which held stunning upward revisions for 2018 and 2019.   Wage growth of 5.5% combined with low inflation remaining at 1.4 percent; the disposable income of U.S. workers jumped to a stunning 4.1%.  [Data Tables]

Within the revised BEA data, we find employee compensation rose 4.5% in 2017 and 5% in 2018.  Importantly the growth trend continued into 2019, with compensation increasing 3.4 percent in the first six months alone.  Year-over-year wages and salaries were revised upward to 5.3% for May, and 5.5% in June.  These are stunning increases in worker pay.

There are various economic indicators we have shared through the years, but wage growth is one of the more critical.  First, wage growth lags behind business activity – workers don’t get pay raises until after business volume demands/provides it.  Second, wage growth is generally uni-directional – once businesses hike pay, the increases cement.

As the Wall Street Journal put it:

(Table 6 – BEA Data Release)

(VIA WSJ) […] Recall how liberals blamed “secular stagnation” as the reason worker incomes weren’t growing faster during the latter years of Barack Obama’s Presidency. Yet employee compensation has increased by $150 billion more in the first six months of 2019 than all of 2016.

Compensation increased 42% more during the first two years of the Trump Presidency than in 2015 and 2016. This refutes the claim by liberals that the economy has merely continued on the same trajectory since 2017 as it was before.

The economy barely skirted recession in the final Obama years, and economic policy changed in 2017. Deregulation has unleashed repressed animal spirits, especially in energy. Tax reform has also spurred business investment in new facilities and equipment, which over time should translate into higher worker productivity and wages.

Those reforms are continuing to pay economic dividends despite the damage from Mr. Trump’s trade policies. While Democrats and even some conservatives complain that workers haven’t benefited from tax reform, the evidence suggests otherwise. (read more)

SUMMARY: The U.S. consumer is driving the economy.  The jobs and labor market remains strong.  Wage growth is rising in proportion to the diminished availability of the labor pool. Price inflation is low because manufacturing economies (EU and China) are devaluing their currency, and subsidizing their industries (China), in an effort to avoid Trump’s trade policies (tariffs).  Their efforts increase the value of the dollar and we are importing deflation.

Simultaneously, global manufacturers -multinationals- need access to the U.S. consumer market.   As President Trump applies a series of strategic global trade moves, intended to draw manufacturing back to the U.S., those multinationals are in somewhat of a holding pattern for further investment.  Simply, the multinationals are trying to figure out where to put their investment capital for the highest return.

Example: The U.S. economy is strong, unemployment is low and wage rates up; so if China is a non-option, the profit determination shifts.  Where to manufacture? It might be more profitable for a multinational in either Southeast Asia or North America. The key is which country has a long-term agreement with the U.S.  That’s why the USMCA is critical.

CTH still predicts POTUS Trump will eliminate the uncertainty as soon as the USMCA is ratified.  I suspect President Trump will drop massive tariffs on all Chinese goods.

Think of China like a big lake filled with U.S. economic value. Through his Asian discussions with Vietnam, S Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, Japan, et al, President Trump has stealthily built a thin levy, an ASEAN dam of sorts, that will direct the China lake of economic value into Southeast Asia.

Once the USMCA is signed, Trump will blow the dam by triggering the tariffs.  This will move all of the multinationals who are in a ‘holding pattern’, and capital investment will flow fast.   The China exodus will benefit North America (USMCA) and those ASEAN nations who have partnered with Trump and made proactive trade agreements.

 

The Crossover – China Views Lack of ‘Spygate’ Accountability as Evidence of Trump’s Weakness…


It was only a matter of time before someone explained how the Chinese advisors to Chairman Xi Jinping are using President Trump’s inability to hold the coup plotters accountable as evidence they can wait out the President.

This is the crossover, where a lack of accountability for “Spygate” now begins to negatively influence the geopolitical, economic and strategic position of President Trump.  However, there’s an upside to this dynamic….

In several interviews the president has noted his preference to keep the DOJ and FBI issues at a distance and deferred action to others. The economic reset is President Trump’s #1 priority.  If Trump identifies the lack of DOJ and FBI accountability as an impediment to the economic program, he may become much more engaged.

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SHANGHAI—Plodding progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China this week is partly the result of a new tactic from Beijing, which increasingly thinks waiting may produce a more-favorable agreement.

U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators held four hours of talks Wednesday, after a dinner the night before, and then wrapped up their first face-to-face meeting since negotiations foundered more than two months ago. Both sides described the talks as constructive and said the next round will be held in September.

[…] “China can take it easy and wait patiently,” said Mei Xinyu, a researcher at a think tank under China’s Commerce Ministry. China’s economy is recovering, he said, while the U.S.’s is likely to slow: “The impact of the trade war falls in the early stage on China’s economy but in a later stage for the U.S. economy.” (read more – paywall)

David ShoelessJoe🇺🇸@yohiobaseball

.@TheLastRefuge2 Right Again! They think they can wait out Pres Trump, he needs to bring the pain!
“China can take it easy and wait patiently,” said Mei Xinyu, China’s economy is recovering, while the U.S.’s is likely to slow:https://www.wsj.com/articles/slow-progress-in-trade-talks-is-partly-a-result-of-chinas-new-tactic-to-wait-11564574957 

Slow Progress in Trade Talks Is Partly a Result of China’s New Tactic to Wait

Slow Progress in Trade Talks Is Partly a Result of China’s New Tactic to Wait

Plodding progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China this week is partly the result of a new tactic from Beijing, which increasingly thinks waiting may produce a more favorable agreem…

wsj.com

63 people are talking about this

…Every minute spent outraged at what Comey, McCabe or Muller did yesterday, is one minute less that Bill Barr is being held accountable for what he is not doing today…

California Seeks to Ban Trump from Running in 2020


California is at war with Donald Trump. The state is currently involved in more than 40 lawsuits with the Trump administration on issues ranging from environmental regulation to immigration and safe cities. This is the problem with our legal system. Governments can pass any law they wish and then it is your obligation to prove it is unconstitutional. It gets worse. They could pass a law that the governor declared the common law right of Primum Noctum – the right to take the bride on her wedding night. This was actually the origin of the marriage license for the governor or the king could be bought off with a fine. A governor could pass such a law and ONLY if he demanded some girl show up at his bedroom would there be “standing” to challenge the law. If you are not a bride, you cannot sue to prove the law is unconstitutional.

Against this backdrop, California and its war against President Trump has declared that he will not be eligible for California’s primary ballot unless he releases his tax returns, under a new law signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom. The former governor back in 2017, Gov. Jerry Brown, vetoed it questioning whether it was constitutional. Gov. Brown warned that it would create a precedent for requiring all sorts of other information including medical records or certified birth certificates for example from candidates like the controversy over Obama.

So here we go again. This new law will require that all presidential candidates release their tax returns in order to be placed on the ballot for the state’s primary next year. Clearly, this is only going to escalate a running feud between California and Trump.

Democrats Concerned about the Squad of Four


Behind the curtain, many House Democrats are becoming deeply concerned that the attention given to the “Squad of Four” among their ranks is having the same effect from the media that Donald Trump received during the primaries before the 2016 election. By focusing always on Trump as the novelty, many believe that the media made Trump and caused 17 career politicians to be ignored. The fears are rising that this Squad of Four, which is extremely hard left, are painting all Democrats as radicals.

While the House Democrats united in their vote to condemn President Donald Trump’s racist tweets, behind the curtain they know they were not racist for it was about their political views, not a race. Trump is not backing down on that and the Democrats fear that calling him racist may really polarize the nation and send white Democrats to the Trump ranks who are not racist but fed up with the anti-American statements that are emerging from the Squad of Four.

The fear rising among some Democratic lawmakers is that these far-left progressives have been the overriding influence of the whole with their tiny caucus and are painting all Democrats with the same brush. Many are expressing frustration with the repeated headlines involving the four progressive congresswomen who are overshadowing the liberal agenda which is not far-left.

There are those claiming the Squad’s reference to concentration camps were the Japanese, rather than the Germans. In both cases, the Jews and the Japanese were citizens — not illegal immigrants. The German camps were known as “concentration camps” whereas the US version for the Japanese were “internment camps” which were upheld by the Supreme Court (Korematsu v. United States, 323 U.S. 214 (1944)) – which is one of the top 10 worst decisions ever along with Dred Scot.

Nevertheless, it went over most people’s heads that the Supreme Court overruled Korematsu when they wrote in the majority opinion upholding President Donald Trump’s travel ban. The Supreme Court also overturned a long-criticized decision that had upheld the constitutionality of Japanese-American internment during World War II. Indeed, Justice Sonia Sotomayor had mentioned the 1944 case, Korematsu v. United States, in her dissent, arguing that the rationale behind the majority decision had “stark parallels” to Korematsu; in both cases, she argued, the government “invoked an ill-defined national security threat to justify an exclusionary policy of sweeping proportion.”

Writing for the majority, however, Chief Justice John Roberts argued that the case was not relevant to the travel ban, but went ahead and wrote that it is now overturned. “The dissent’s reference to Korematsu … affords this Court the opportunity to make express what is already obvious: Korematsu was gravely wrong the day it was decided, has been overruled in the court of history, and — to be clear — ‘has no place in law under the Constitution,’” he wrote.