The Transition from Fossil Fuel to Wind and Solar

An engineering study on the timing of the proposed change in our form of energy generation. Written on July 3, 2022 by Centinel

With the transition out of fossil fuels into green energy now well underway, there will be an unavoidable lag in available energy. The reason for this is that the solar panel fields being built and the wind turbines installations are both occurring at a rate way too slow to keep up with the reduction of fossil fuel production that is already being implemented. The energy gab is what is driving the price of fuel (gasoline and Diesel) up.

 Approximately, 88% of U.S. energy is from Petroleum, Natural Gas, Coal, and Nuclear and of the remaining 12% is from all other sources, but only 4% of that is Solar and Wind. The other 8% is hydroelectric and biomass; which I’m not sure they really count if you want zero CO2 emissions by 2030.

To reach that goal of zero CO2  means we have to get rid of 88% of the existing US generating capacity and increase the Solar and Wind from 4% to 88% or 22 times the existing solar and wind capacity. The issue is that to keep everything running we need to install the green energy first and then cut out the fossil fuels in proportion to the increase of the green energy; for example look at this approximation below based on The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) June 2022 report for the year 2021 above.

Year   Solar Wind    Coal, Oil, Natural Gas

2022        4%                  88%

2024        25%                66%

2026        46%                44%

2028        67%                22%

2030        88%                0%

If the Coal, oil and natural gas production is removed faster than the Green Solar and Wind capacity is increased than blackouts of increasing duration will result and the economy will shut down. It is basic engineering and not political. The politicians tell us the science is settled on Climate change and this has to be done and if that is true then to get to zero CO2 by 2030 the previous numbers must be followed, the engineering to accomplish that goal is also settled, This issue with politicians is they are not capable of making rational decisions on major projects just like they are also not capable of winning a war i.e. Vietnam under President Johnson and WW II Germany under Hitler. It’s a basic rule in The Art of War that the king or ruler must let the generals run the war. Here in the U.S. the politicians are not letting the engineers run the conversion.

The politicians decided to reduce the U’S’ production of fossil based fuel when they took over and that started the price increase on day one, January 20, 2021, of the Biden Administration. There are two kinds of inflation product supply and excess demand. If supply goes down and demand is constant, the price goes up. On the other side if demand goes up and supply does not then that drives up the price from the demand side.

In the current U.S. case its primarily supply shortages of gasoline and diesel coupled with increased demand as we came out of the COVID economics issues. Since everything moves by truck or rail, the price increases of diesel affects everything.

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