No Need to Live in Fear – It’s the Ying and Yang of Civilization


Punch

QUESTION: Martin. …Thank you for getting back to me. I have one quick question though. What does it mean when you say “It is in the staging period”? Thank you for your insights. I don’t want to live in fear, but don’t know what to do.

ANSWER: There is no need to live in fear. If I tell you I am going to punch you in the face, and say see, her it comes! Do you stand there and just watch it? Or do you move or defend yourself? If you understand what is unfolding then you can move with confidence and not get sucker-punched. Do not live in fear. Just accept this is our fate. We cannot stop it for this is the way things advance. They require events to promote change.

yin_yangIt appears that 2016 is “the staging period” and by that I mean everything is preparing to align and when it does, we will see that alignment if you simply open your eyes to the world around you. As long as we understand what is coming, no worries; we can handle it. It is the reshaping of the future that we have to fight for. What kind of world will we leave our children? We can see the authoritarian posture of government as they hunt money everywhere. This has got to stop. They have become the enemy of civilization. People come together to conduct a more efficient economy. When government abuses the power and sees us as cattle, then we retreat back in the direction of smaller tribes that offer freedom from central oppression. The Ying and Yang of Civilization.

CASH IS KING


Cash is King

QUESTION:

Hello Mr. Armstrong,

I read your blog every day. Thank you but i’m having trouble figuring out where to place my money moving forward. Cash, the markets, the banks, gold…. It feels like you are saying cash is the place to be right now but maybe i have a difficult time comprehending all that is going on

Where there be at time whereby you direct or inform where to place our money? or is that up to us to decide based on the trend you posts?

Thank you

DOWN Spiral

ANSWER: No. I have been saying right now we are still in the deflationary spiral and that is when CASH IS KING. This naturally depends upon where you are. The first quarter here may off the extremes for the year in most markets. So you want to be in a position to begin to come out of CASH for when CONFIDENCE begins to decline in GOVERNMENT (not just central banks since the majority do not even understand what they are), then we should begin to see the staging game prepare for what looks like the 2017-2020 move. Then you may want to be diversified with equities with good capitalization, some spec-stocks, gold, silver, and real estate (greatly dependent on area).

UPWARD SpiralFrom a TIMING perspective, this is the Great Alignment. We will be yelling loudly when the timing is right. Edging into this will begin this year. But when will this whole thing begin to unravel? That appears to be during the first half of 2017.

Keep in mind that if you read this blog, you are already in a position where you have lost CONFIDENCE in government. Do not judge the world based upon your view. What counts is the majority view and they still THINK government is in control and is actually there to help them. When they start to see this basic assumption is wrong, then everything changes.

The younger generation already has lost faith in government. It is the new voters pouring out for Sanders and Trump against the establishment. They see Social Security in the States as a TAX, not as a plan for their retirement. However, this same segment of society is too young to remember silver coinage. They do not have the same view of precious metal. Some funny video have appears offering a 10 ounce silver bar or a bar of chocolate. The vast majority of the people on the street take the chocolate. They are not on the same page. They could not even sell a 10 ounce silver bar for 99 cents. Not everyone sees the world with the same way.

Largarde Wants to Stay Ruling the World from IMF


Lagarde Christine imf

Christine Lagarde does not want to leave the Troika ruling the world from the IMF which has  become an unelected dictatorship. Once these type of people get a taste of awesome power and the press lick the ground upon which they walk, they just never want to leave. Lagarde has “offered” to serve another term and he buddy Obama will anoint her, which is the word on the street.

EU Fears the British Referendum will Be a Contagion


Tusk Donald

Donald Tusk of the European Union (EU) in Brussels, European Council president, has warned that the EU is really in danger of total collapse. He has come out and said that David Cameron’s referendum in Britain will be copied by other members tactics for their own “egotistic goals.” He has said this will unleash the unthinkable democratic right of European people to disagree with the elite in Brussels. He called this a populist political movement that will bring the EU bloc to the brink of “suicide”.

Donald Tusk is now saying he is clearing his diary next week to concentrate on the “very fragile” talks with Britain to create some “new settlement” at the EU summit next week to keep Britain in the EU and to allow Cameron to declare some victory so he can call off the referendum. That is the agenda in Brussels.

The problem Tusk does not understand because he is looking at keeping his own job, is that there is no plan in Brussels to fix anything. This is simply trying to maintain their power by denying democratic processes. There is no acknowledgement that the problem lies with the Euro and the entire structure which is undermining the banking system.

Until Brussels is willing to say; Oops! Sorry about that! We really screwed everything up, there is not a prayer in hell that the Euro or Europe can be saved. The Euro will make its rally and destroy the economy fueling more deflation, the ECB will turn the screws and keep the NEGATIVE interest rates, and in the end, it will have to fail anyway.

Britain Seizing Pension Funds?


osborne_taxes

I have been warning that Chancellor George Osborne is probably going to go down in history as the man who destroys what is left of the British Empire. He has done whatever could be done wrong absolutely perfectly. Seizing pension funds to be invested by his decree is up there with Argentina standards. Osborne is now currently putting in place his grand scheme to retain the power of government in Britain. His grand scheme is to seize effective control of the nation’s local government pension schemes and direct them to invest in his infrastructure projects that are probably lobbied by friends.

Politicians in the post-Roosevelt Era took the idea of the WPA created by Roosevelt to provide jobs for the unemployed. Keep in mind that this was the transition from agriculture to skilled labor, which was quite a different problem from today. The second problem was the shift to the technology of the combustion engine that allowed farmers to replace workers by the dozen with motorized tractors and automobiles replaced trains. These technology shifts made the WPA a viable alternative because we needed to change the skill sets of workers. Now, infrastructure projects do not train workers to change their career and they offer nothing from a permanent employment perspective. So raising taxes and seizing pension funds to funnel into infrastructure has a NEGATIVE economic impact today. The technology shift is not moving backwards in skills, it is moving forward.

Osborne is crossing THE line here as a pretend left-wing socialist masquerading as a economic “conservative” that no other major G5 nation has dared to tread no less the British government throughout its entire history. This is where government are moving. Seizing everything just like Maximinus who destroyed the confidence in Rome and set in motion the acceleration of its decline.

The Postponement – Slingshot Move


Sling-Shot Move

QUESTION: Marty, at the Conference you said we could conclude this in the first quarter if we get the alignment. It does not look like we will get the alignment since gold is up and the Dow is down. This is why you have been saying this looked like it was postponing into 2017?

ANSWER: Yes. We could have concluded this here in 2016, but the reversals determine the trend. Trend is ALWAYS defined by the Bullish and the Bearish Reversals. Those who expect forecasts to be one-sided opinions are not traders and will typically lose their shirt as 90% of people who try to trade do. A real trader MUST know where he is right and where he is wrong at all times since the market is the only thing that is ever infallible. Those who expect one-sided forecasts never survive. Those who do not grasp why we have Bullish and Bearish Reversals defining the trend claiming that is why we are always right are blind fools. You cannot elect both the Bearish and the Bullish on the same day. These type of people will be separated from their money real fast in the coming slingshot because they are incapable of understanding how markets even move. This is a learning experience and when there is nothing left to learn, it is time to die. So those who are incapable of learning, well I suppose they are just a waste of humanity that drives the rest of us in awe as we watch their stupidity repeat over and over again.

True, 2016 would be five years down from the 2011 high in gold. But because of the split with 2012 being the highest annual closing, this has left the door open to the conclusion being pushed off into 2017. If we got the final low for gold in the first quarter, then a low in the Dow would be the alignment that confidence in government would collapse now. But when the Dow closed year-end lower and gold closed above our number, I stated gold was not as weak as it appeared. It then began electing the Bullish Reversals, not the Bearish, and that gave us the indication we would get a rally BETWEEN the Benchmarks at a very minimum. This was only reinforced by the closing in the euro where we warned the euro should rise to 113 at minimum and 116 optimal. The decline in the dollar should have helped gold, but it will also intensify the deflation in Europe and help to push their banking system over the cliff as is happening right now.

The talk around the street is that the moves are due to a lack of confidence in general that central banks can control the economy. Well, that’s nice, for they never could. But this is looking very dicey, to say the least. That is why we have to just following the reversals and the timing. We have heard every excuse to explain the trend from the stock market following oil to gold rallying because the Fed will not raise rates. Honestly, this all sounds like gibberish.

The markets are preparing for a slingshot move that will make most people’s nose bleeds. Gold has reached so far the 1263 level so there is still room on the upside yet before encountering resistance. The two key numbers to watch now are the 1309 and 1363 levels. Pay attention to the Dow. If we can close below 15875 we have a shot of finally breaking last year’s low.

Also, pay attention to silver. It has not kept pace with gold, showing the bulk of the gold move has been short-covering. Here we need a closing for the week above 1643 to be comparable with gold just above the 1209 number. We also have a Weekly Bullish at 1544. Silver is begrudgingly following which does not speak well for the long-term sustainability here.

So in the end, we will set the stage for all this craziness moving to extremes. Then ask yourself this question? Are you willing to hand your money to government and ask them to hold it for you? If we are concerned about banks, and we are concerned about government, then there is not much life but to move to the private sector. So when rates go negative, a 1% yield in a blue-chip stock looks like heaven. That is the shift on the horizon from public to private. We have to get the weak-minded running into the arms of government before the markets will slaughter them for their stupidity.

The Game is Over – Market Perspective


figure_climbing_rope_on_fire_500_clr_18075

The fuse has been lit. The world economy is in serious trouble and we have the worst possible people at the helm. You have Obama who want to double the funding now for the SEC and CFTC to go after the banks because he smells blood. He also wants to add a $10 tax to oil just because he see something else he can tax.

The question becomes, just how long can we try to climb out of this mess before it consumes the entire rope? It does appear that the greatest period of turmoil will be 2017 moving into 2020. Whatever can go wrong – will go wrong. We have everything culminating from a Sovereign Debt Crisis to the War Cycle intermixed with political destabilization. Indeed, 2017 is going to be the year from political hell. With election is Germany, France, and the referendum in Britain exiting the EU, we then throw in the real potential for the election in the States to flip to Trump. The world as we have known it is coming undone.

When we look at the markets, they are clearly trying to speak to us. Many markets avoided their year-end numbers like gold closing ABOVE 1044 level. This we warned meant gold was not as weak as it might appear. The Dow closed lower warning there too a correction was underway.

So far today gold opened at 1197 and ran up to the 1215 area hovering around our opening pivot point for today which was 1207.57. Keep in mind that the resistance stands in the 1226 area but the real key here is to accomplish a closing above 1209 on Friday. Then we can get a pop up about $100 which would convince many it has turned. But alas, the stars are not quite aligned just yet. Our yearly resistance starts at the 1309 level so this is how far we can push gold right now. Beware, a break back below 1179 will warn the market is turn negative again.

Deutsche Bank-MEuro

The Dow opening pivot point for today is 15747 and our extreme support for 2016 lies at 13100 level. It has been the S&P500 leading the way down. This is not something to overlook. I have stated countless times the difference here is the Dow reflects big international money and the S&P500 is concentrated with domestic. As the European banking crisis continues to unfold, the Euro caught a bid as capital was being withdrawn from overseas investments. Many big banks have been shutting down their dealing desks. They are handing back screens from all the companies like Bloomberg as the industry contracts. This also has resulted in liquidating foreign trading positions. The US prosecutors fining European banks excessively have changed the game. They want to pretend they are protecting the markets, but in reality, nobody goes to jail and they just line their pockets with huge fines. This has set in motion the great migration of the financial industry and we can see from the chart above on Deutsche Bank, it does not look very good.

DJFIN-M

 

Nonetheless, banks overall are not looking healthy long-term. Looking at the Dow Jones Financial Index, we can see here that this sector did NOT make new highs above 2007. This is not something to overlook. I have warned, get out of financial stocks. The game is over.

Iran Tries to Kill Petro-Dollars But They Know Not What They Do


Petro-dollar-6

Iran has begun to sell oil, but in euros. They think this is some sort of blow to the USA, but in fact, they are taking on the currency risk of the euro. This could be interesting for when the euro resumes its decline they will actually be undercutting everyone else who is pricing in dollars. This could make the markets very interesting as we move ahead.

Who Will Raise Rates? The Market or the Fed?


Int Rate Rise

Some people are confused by what I mean when I say that rates will rise as we move into the sovereign debt crisis, which will pick up steam in 2017 moving into 2020. We are NOT talking about central banks raising rates; we are looking at the FREE MARKET. As people realize that government debt comes with a risk, capital will begin to shift into the private assets. The market will not buy all the government debt that appears ready to explode. With central banks moving negative on short-term rates, smart money will wake up and flip into equities. If equities break-even, that is better than a guaranteed loss in government bonds. In Japan, the 10 year rate just went NEGATIVE so you want to park money with the government for 10 years and pay them to hold it?

Plus, the risk with government bonds will be that they can convert even short-term paper, of say 90 days, to 10-year bonds. Governments have done this before. As banks begin to get in trouble again, smart money will try to get off the grid. Banks will have to pay more for money as those keeping money in banks move out.

The FREE MARKET will force rates higher. Sure, central banks can keep short-term rates NEGATIVE as long as they buy the government debt. But this cannot continue indefinitely. The FREE MARKET will always win. This is how governments fail. The game remains on as long as there are bids at their auctions to sell new debt. What happens when there is NO BID? That is how the FREE MARKET will raise rates. Smart capital will move from public to private debt and equities in addition to gold and real estate on a VERY SELECTED basis.

The Cycle of War turned up in 2014. We have seen an escalation in international war (Russia-Ukraine) and in the Middle East while civil unrest spreads everywhere. This trend will pick up also in 2017 and move into 2020.

The Real Implications of Forecasting – More Profound than you Think


BUY-SELL

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I attended the Berlin Conference and I must say, you told us to expect a move between the Benchmarks in gold, and that the first quarter looked to be a countertrend move. You seem to be able to map out the direction of markets all the time. I am still working out the best way to read the arrays. But I have to ask. Why have you not been given the Noble Prize with such a long track record that is unbeatable?

Interventionists

Smith-MarxREPLY: The fact we can forecast any event to the day PROVES that markets are by no means RANDOM. Now, lets begin with that statement and follow it through. If markets are NOT random, then the implication for government, economics, fund management, and all social sciences are actually incorrect sciences if you lower the real meaning of that word to be just opinion. This means central bank manipulation cannot succeed. It means government cannot control society under the Marxist-Keynesian theories, and it means that low and behold Adam Smith was correct after all. Giving me the Nobel Prize for proving so much is seriously in error, would be tantamount to a real scientific revolution. I think we are not ready for that. We have to crash and burn FIRST. Then perhaps in the aftermath someone will say – hey; let’s try something different. The downside of humanity is we want someone to be in charge. That is our own careless mistake in history.

The degree that those in power BELIEVE in the ability of the power to control society by merely writing a law is identical to desperate goldbugs who still write and have dedicated their life to try to prove me wrong on anything to justify being wrong themselves for 19 years from 1980 and 5 years from 2011, besides the fact the Dow rose from 1,000 to 18,000 since 1980 and gold cannot even exceed the 1980 high adjusted for inflation. They still write with pathetic nonsense demonstrating that no matter what you show them, they will NEVER change their mind. This is exactly the same as politicians. Nothing you do to show them they are destroying the economy to change their mind, creating massive unemployment among the youth, and the negative interest rates are undermining pensions and wiping out the elderly. There are those who, as Smith states, are hopelessly lost committed to their self-interest and REFUSE to ever see that they are possibly WRONG. This is why markets must crash and burn. It is the ONLY way to promote change.

GCNYNF-D FOR 2-8-2016

Now with respect to the arrays, we are in the process of preparing a workshop series. But to make it as simple as possible, just focus on the top line which is the sum of 72 models. The plotting of the bars is proportional to that time frame. As the time moves forward, one bar which may not have been so pronounced, will suddenly rise. This is because the plotting is relative to the highest bar in that time segment. Where the highest bar may have been 25 hits previously and now the highest is only 10, it may appear to now be also at the top. We are looking at reflecting the count so you can see this is proportional charting, not relative to some fixed standard.

The change in the color reflects only direction. Here we see the 8th, a change for the 9th, and then the 12th. If we break the low of the 9th and close lower, then it is likely that 3 day trend will be to the downside. Exceeding the high of the 9th and closing higher would imply the risk is a 3 day rally into the next target on the 12th. These bars reflect the sum of all models which are “turning points” rather than a specific high or low given there are cycle inversions. This is typically determined by other models reflected in the text written by the computer.