Congress is the problem not the FED!


The Fed v Congress

Fed v Congress

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

How long has the central banking era been going and will it come to an end? How many central banks create liquidity for governments by buying their bonds?

Cheers

SL

CapitolBldg

ANSWER: I understand that central banks have been demonized and the great conspiracy centers around their ability to create money. Creating money is not really the issue for the amount they have created is peanuts compared to the continued debt created by politicians. Congress just created $1 trillion plus in December 2015 and nobody noticed.

jacksonbankwar

We need central banks as the clearing mechanism and to maintain reserves of member banks. The problem is that central banks are not all created the same. Jackson destroyed the Bank of the United States which did not engage in quantitative easing and had no such power to create elastic money. They simply lent money to Jackson’s opponents. The destruction of the central bank resulted in the Panic of 1837 and the Sovereign Defaults of the states during the 1840s after States had issued debt trying to bailout state banks, which went nuts without a central bank to control anything.

This constant attack on central banks is really hiding what the problem truly is – government. When the Fed was created, it “stimulated” by purchasing corporate paper. It was NEVER intended to buy government bonds. The politicians did that for World War I and then never returned it to its purpose. The FDR grabbed it and ordered the Fed to buy government bonds at PAR which was not removed until 1951.

The problem is always politicians. We need to ELIMINATE public debt and outlaw the federal government from borrowing anyway since it never pays anything back. The Fed’s ability to create money to help the economy in a crisis was limited by itys design to short-term corporate paper. Private sector has to pay its debts. So the right to “create” temporary money made sense for it was eliminated when the corporate paper was redeemed. This was short-term paper.

QE-r

Even today, the Fed has all this government debt it bought under Quantitative Easing. It too will be reversed, but they bought long-term debt. That increase in the money supply will contract upon expiration of the debt. When the debt expires, it is technically repaid, and the money created by the fed will vanish. That is still elastic money.

It is not eliminating the central banks that will save our future. That would push us over the edge as did Jackson. We need to eliminate government debt and return the Fed to its original design and not off this political manipulation of the Fed to political gain.

Make no mistake about it; the Fed stating interest rates MUST be normalized is not going to help Fiscal Policy. This is a war now or integrity and we should stop bashing the Fed and yell at the real culprits.

As far as when will the central banks come to an end? Well from a clearing perspective – hopefully never. From a government tool to manipulate society – their days are numbered and 2020 looks like a good place to start. If the debt collapses, then the central banks can be returned to their original function. Those who want to shut the Federal Reserve would only destroy the economy exactly as did Andrew Jackson.

Will there be a real change at the IMF or just more of the same?


Christine Lagarde’s Term at IMF Ends in July

Lagarde-Christine-imf

On Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) began the selection process for its next managing director to replace Christine Lagarde whose term will expire in early July. She was actually nominated by Obama for they were personal friends. It was Lagarde who effectively began the worldwide assault on tax havens by threatening them with isolation and the removal from the SWIFT system. She was also behind the attack on the Vatican that will force them to report all wires and parties on both sides for the tax nightmare that arrives in 2017.

The Executive Board will select three candidates from the nominations — that is unless Obama directs them to appoint another person against society to hunt down money for wasteful governments to support their pensions. The nominations should be in quickly and the selection process should be complete by March 3. The next member of the Troika governing Europe’s fate will begin their reign of economic terror on July 5.

Are we next to go cashless?


China to move to Electronic Currency

central_bank_china

The People’s Bank of China held a seminar yesterday to discuss the
issuance of a digital currency. The Chinese central bank said issuing a digital
currency would have positive implication as it would reduce the high printing
and circulation costs of traditional cash notes, make economic transactions more
convenient and transparent, reduce money laundering and tax evasion and
strengthen the central bank’s control over money supply and circulation. The
Chinese central bank pledged to issue China’s own digital currency as early as
possible.

The Dollar will continue to rise as the world implodes!


Why Pegs to the US$ Will Break

US$-HK Peg

Speculation is, at last, starting to rise that the HK$/US$ peg could break. The all-powerful governments are suddenly being seen as no so powerful. The massive dollar rally that our model has been forecasting is rather straight-forward. The higher the US$ rises, the more deflation will be exported to economies that are out of sync with the USA.

The dollar haters only talk about the $18 to $19 trillion debt and that is the sole reason, they assume, why commodities must rise and the dollar has to crumble. What they fail to see that it just so happens to be the WORLD. The sea of debt out there has exceeded $200 trillion. When you look at the U.S. government, I hate to say it, but it is a drop in the bucket.

Then we have China in a contractionary decline, Europe being torn apart thanks to the refugee crisis that will only get far worse, and emerging markets who assumed China would buy every commodity in sight forever. There is little hope of anything rising right now to offer any sort of an alternative to the US$ federal debt. Believe it or not, there is a SHORTAGE of federal debt when the entire world has only one place to park BIG MONEY.

Consequently, we will see virtually EVERY currency pegged to the dollar break from Hong Kong to the Middle East. Welcome to BIG BANG.

Soon the entire EU will be in Economic Emergency!


France in State of Economic Emergency

hollande-shocked

President Francois Hollande has publicly stated that the French economy is now in a state of “economic emergency”. He set out a €2bn job creation scheme in a desperate attempt to lift France out economic death spiral created by his socialistic policies that have raised taxes and chased out those who create wealth and jobs.

Hollande’s scheme he proposes will be a two-year plan where firms with less than 250 staff will get subsidies if they take on a young or unemployed persons for six months or more. In addition, Hollande says he will create 500,000 vocational training courses but that is pointless without firms hiring.

France’s unemployment rate is officially 10.6%, compared to a European Union average of 9.8% and 4.2% in Germany. However, this numbers are modest and do not properly reflect the students who cannot get a job to even start. He also says that this program will be paid “without any new taxes of any kind.” I suppose he is finally realizing that rising taxes shrinks the private sector and than means less jobs are available.

Oil could go down to $25.00 per barrel or lower!


Crude – What Lies Beneath $30 & Where Will Resistance Stand Here After

Crude-W 1-18-2016

 

Right now, the fear has been that Iran will start dumping oil now that the sanctions have been lifted. Thus, crude has been falling out of bed in a nightmare scenario. The fact that Crude was below $35 and then rallied to close above it for the 2015 year-end closing was a warning that the long-term may not be as bearish as it appears at first glance. Crude still elected a year-end sell signal at $41. So that meant lower lows. But our other two numbers were $35 and $25. Breaking $30 certainly focuses our attention on the $25 level as support on a system basis. Technically, the $25 area is also showing up as support during January.

Crude-FOR-M 1-1-2016

Cyclically, this collapse in price has been on target since our timing projections have been January, March, and June here in early 2016. We have warned that 2016 was the target for at least the intraday low.

Crude-Y 1-18-2016

Crude-FOR-Y 1-1-2016

When we start to look at what the computer is projecting in time, indeed 2016 is a Directional Change. It appears choppy until about 2018. From there out into 2022 to 2023/2024, which will be the next top in the Economic Confidence Model, we see a sharp rise in volatility. This is lining up with two primary factors – WAR and a MONETARY CRISIS.

So for now, we should focus on the $24-$25 area as the next psychological support zone. Our two key areas of target support for 2016 are $25 and $16. Looking forward, we employed our WHAT IF models to try to forecast where the Yearly Bullish Reversal (buy signal) will be generated from a low at either position in 2016. Interesting enough, in both scenarios, we end up with $40-$41.50. This will clearly become the major resistance moving forward. It does not appear that crude will ever make new intraday highs. It must fight again

All Governments fail as soon as they promise the citizens a Utopia!


Leverage v the Black Hole in Economics

Leverage-Economy

QUESTION:

Dear Marty,

Please correct and expand my understanding of a Sovereign Debt Crisis as it pertains to leveraged accounts.  If global economies are leveraged because of too much debt with no plans to pay, then what are the pros and cons to leveraged short investments when economies are deleveraging?  Might they be dangerous at times?

Thanks in advance for your incredible knowledge and willingness to educate others wanting to learn and understand.

Sincerely,

BB

ANSWER: Leverage seems to be the buzz word everyone relies upon to predict the end of times. All we hear about is the leverage in derivatives and the issue that will collapse society. Quite frankly, that is a lot of hype. They are quoting the total gross without looking at the net because so much of this is offset.

Babtlon-Futures-Contracr

Because of these scenarios, the predictions people tout is always inflation. They keep the German hyperinflation in mind even if they do not explain their base reasoning. Within this idea is the fact there is a basic assumption government is GOOD and will attempt to honor its debts like bailouts when in fact they will NOT; i.e. bail-ins. Nevertheless, like a horse race, the doomsayers are betting on the wrong horse. LEVERAGE has existed since ancient times. Here is a Babylonian tablet recording the earliest futures market. Sorry, but LEVERAGE has been around a very long time. It is inevitable government will collapse for NEVER has a single one ever survived.

Denarius-Annual Production-R MoneySuppy-157-50BC

Roman-DieCareful correlations of historical data we have gathered which even include the money supply determined by the number of known dies for coins and the average 25,000 coins which can be struck before a die breaks. When I say we put together the largest collection of coinage providing a complete run back to 600BC to recreate the monetary system of the world, it is no exaggeration.

GORD-DIEWe even have Roman dies that were used to strike coins shown above and to the right. You cannot ascertain what the future will bring without a road-map of the past. Forecasting the future demands a database – not merely theories. By assembling the hardcore evidence of history tracing the footsteps of humankind throughout the centuries, only then can you speak with any pretense of authority that is not qualified with “I think”.

TAX-CYC

 

The battle has always been not with LEVERAGE, but with Government. The larger government grows, the more wealth they consume. Government produces nothing, but they ultimately consume everything. This is why they ALWAYS collapse. We are in a DEFLATIONARY spiral because they continue to suck in more and more money. LEVERAGE only adds to volatility. Government is like a BLACK HOLE, sucking in everything including the light of the future. Nothing can escape until its collapses.

Obama Organized Crime

This is the present HUNT FOR MONEY because they are going broke. It is not the quantity of money that counts; it is what crumbs are left on the table at the end of the day. Government is indistinguishable from any criminal organization engaged in the “protection business”. You pay up to be protected or they themselves rob you.

“The Gods of the Copybook Headings” is a 1911 poem by Rudyard Kipling that explaings it all.


Why the Theory of Money Does Not Work

Taxes

QUESTION:  We see that the United States can borrow all it needs at minimal cost and we also see that we’re getting a big boost from falling energy/commodity prices, to levels we have not seen in some 15 years my “economic model” — which is not a computer model but is certainly scientific in nature — tells me that we will be humming along pretty nicely for quite a long while, minimum 5 years maybe much longer, given these two variables do you see anything on the horizon that will knock us off this “steady state” and quite favorable situation?

TP

Tax-Curve

ANSWER: You concept of the economy is very limited and is too influenced by the concept of the quantity of money/Austrian School. This is one-dimensional. Taxes play a huge role and provides the source of DEFLATION. If I give you $100 and then tax you $90, just how much did I really give you? The middle class is shrinking and they claim the 1% are making too much. Is that really the problem? No. The problem is the 40% (government) is broke and consuming a steady increase in the proportion of everyone’s income. Government produces nothing. It lives off of what everyone else produces. The more it grows, the lower the real economic growth.

TAX-CYC

You are only looking at the total aggregate. You assume simply increasing the quantity of money will produce inflation. That theory has been proven wrong constantly throughout the course of history. You must look at the growth of government and the larger it grows the lower the economic growth. Look at the City of Detroit. When more than 50% of its taxes went to pensions, it could no longer function to maintain the cost of government to operate currently and collapsed as those who could be taxes migrated from the city.

Mainz

 

This same exact result manifested from the very beginning of the rebirth of government and taxes during the 15th century. Mainz was where the printing press was invented. The city went through a huge economic boom and the politicians borrowed against a future they assumed would never end. The more they raised taxes to pay for expenses, the more people left. They  began issuing new debt to simply pay off the old debt as we do today. When they could not sell new debt, they defaulted. They were then invaded and the city was sacked and burned to the grown.

Philip-IV-FranceThis outcome applies to all levels of government. Your “model” assumes that merely increasing the quantity of money defeats this reality. It does not and has NEVER prevented the collapse of Empires, Nations, or City States. Undermine the CONFIDENCE of the people and you destroy your own economy. This is what we are in today. The hunt for money has begun and with it our freedom is vanishing before our eyes. The end is caused by the mismanagement and greed of government – not the 1%. They too ultimately become the target of government just as Philip IV of France imprisoned all the Italian bankers, then seized the Papacy and move it to Avignon, and then installed a French Pope to seize the Knights Templar and confiscate all their wealth. It is always the same story and plot – just the names change with time.

Gibbon-5

Edward Gibbon in his Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, wrote: “Suspicious princes often promote the last of mankind, from a vain persuasion, that those who have no dependence, except on their favor, will have no attachment, except to the person of their benefactor.

Edward Gibbon wrote of Commodus (177-192AD): Each

distinction of every kind soon became criminal. The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. The execution of a considerable senator was attended with the death of all who might lament or revenge his fate; and when Commodus had once tasted human blood, he became incapable of pity or remorse

(Book 1, Chapter 4).

PopulationOfRome

When government turns against its people, the economy begins to shrink. Commodus was the son of Marcus Aurelius who marks the peak in the Roman Empire. From that point on, Rome began its fall. Government began to hunt money and assets. The population of Rome itself peaks and people began to then migrate from the city to the suburbs. You must also look at this balance between Public and Private. Therein lies the real key to the rise and fall of civilization – not the quantity of money.

Big Banks (money) and Big Givernment (Power) go hand and hand and its not good for the Vulgarians (Common Man)!


Goldman Sachs fined $5 billion but is Still Above the Law

GoldmanSachs-Bldg-NJ

Goldman Sachs is finally paying a price (money) for the role it played in 2007 mortgage scandal, but of course nobody goes to jail proving Goldman still remains above the law. The Wall Street firm agreed to only a civil settlement of up to $5 billion with federal prosecutors and regulators arising from it marketing and selling of known faulty mortgage securities to investors they created. Goldman Sachs announced:

Under the terms of the agreement in principle, the firm will pay a $2.385 billion civil monetary penalty, make $875 million in cash payments and provide $1.8 billion in consumer relief. The consumer relief will be in the form of principal forgiveness for underwater homeowners and distressed borrowers; financing for construction, rehabilitation and preservation of affordable housing; and support for debt restructuring, foreclosure prevention and housing quality improvement programs, as well as land banks.

Revolving-Door

The number one question we always get is why are the regulators and prosecutors so damn corrupt? Besides the bankers being in a position to blackmail politicians that if they are not bailed out, nobody will sell their debt, then the real problem is they buy the prosecutors and regulators. How? They hire the government lawyers who are suppose to be regulating them. This even includes staff of politicians who actually write the legislation. This is known as the revolving door. It is different where Rubin and Paulson were CEOs of Goldman Sachs who then became Secretary of the Treasury and left after they did what they had to do for the banks. This corruption ensures that there will never be any real criminal prosecution of the bankers. They are indeed always ABOVE the law. Why not? They pay for that privilege and Congress will never outlaw the revolving door because they too want to be rewarded for their dishonesty since they know this is the game and they pretend it is an outrage but silently condone it for decades. This is why we can no longer afford career politicians. No matter what country, we need to get rid of career politicians to save our own future.

The movie the Big Short (I highly recommend seeing twice) has a scene where a girl from the SEC is seeking a job from Goldman Sachs when she is supposed to be the regulator. Then the rating agencies SELL ratings. For any other field it is criminal activity and called bribery. They too did not go to jail. It has become standard operational procedure for those especially in New York City.

 

Geist-AndrewIn our case, the SEC lawyer who started the prosecution, picks the law firm for the receiver O’Melveny & Myers, and then quits the SEC and becomes a partner in the very firm he selected. There is case law on this that says this is illegal. Whenever I raised the point even to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, they just ignore it. Law is ONLY for those of us who never worked in government. Everyone else, we are the food the legal system feeds on to pretend they are protecting society when they prey upon it.

Alan Cohen GS

The receiver Alan Cohen seizes all the tapes and evidence we had on criminal activity among the NY banks documenting every manipulation of markets, and then protected them. I believe he was rewarded and given a board membership at Goldman Sachs, yet NEVER resigns from the court. So he worked for the court running Princeton Economics from the boardroom of Goldman Sachs. Another amazing conflict of interest the judges would never address.

Perhaps we should change our name to Goldman Sachs, Jr. and that way any fines you pay are also tax-deductible when nobody else gets that privilege and everyone is exempt from prosecution. Interesting when government prosecutors come with their own price tag.

GetOutOfJail

Even after pleading criminally guilty last time, the NY bankers were given not just a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free card, the SEC, who should have taken their licenses, exempted them. So when they talk about preventing felons from various things, of course the bankers are felons, but are always exempt.

What Amstrong tells us in this post is very very real and i agree 100% with what is posted here, from my own research and background.


Let The Bail-Ins Begin

Novo Bank Portugal

Portugal is starting to bail-in banks. The fascinating aspect that nobody seems to see is that this is a total failure of socialism. The U.S. Federal Reserve was formed in 1913, with the shareholders being the banks, to provide the cash needed to prevent bank failures. To stimulate the economy when the banks could not or would not lend, the Fed was supposed to buy CORPORATE notes. Then World War I came and the politicians ordered the Fed to buy government bonds. Of course, they never returned the Fed to its original purpose.

FDR-Signs-GlassSteagall

The Bankf of the United States

FDR usurped the Fed, placed it in Washington, and instituted a single national interest rate; each of the branches maintained a different interest rate to attract capital when there were shortages in one district. So it was common to see rates differ around the country based upon the local economic conditions. FDR also created the FDIC because the Fed failed to function during the Great Depression. The creation of the FDIC was sparked by bankers who were willing to let a New York bank fail in 1930 that happened to be named THE BANK OF THE UNITED STATES. Bank runs began nationwide as people assumed that this Bank of the United States was the government or Federal Reserve. The Bank of the United States was a Jewish banks and the other bankers wanted it to fail to get its business. When it was settled, the Bank of the United States eventually paid out 92 cents on the dollar.

UB1798-Y-MA

Note: The blue tags show the start of when that issue was used in the index and do not reflect the date relative to the chart. Upon that issue date, the bond expired.

Then, for World War II, FDR ordered the Fed to support the U.S. bond market at PAR. Therefore, bonds rose during the war because of this support ordered by FDR. However, that was terminated in 1951 when we begin to see the long process of government bonds collapsing into 1981 when Volcker raised interest rates to insane levels.

With each economic crisis, the government has failed to comprehend the cause and attributed effects to esoteric events that are domestic. Even Larry Summers admitted he was not competent to forecast and that economists have never been able to forecast a single economic decline since World War II. Consequently, the response has been an ever-increasing progression of attempts to control the economy by resorting to ever more Draconian measures.

Crisis-Democracy

We have now gone beyond TOO BIG TO FAIL to TOO BIG TO BAILOUT.  Thus, all the promises from socialism are collapsing from Social Security, to pensions and insuring banks. This is what I have stated for the past 30+ years. We are headed into BIG BANG (which began 2015.75), which is more than just a sovereign debt crisis; it is the total collapse of socialism and a crisis in democracy. We have watched our forecasts made back in 1985 unfold on time and in perfect harmony with history.

Troika-Unelected

In Europe, not a single head of the Troika has EVER stood for election! The people dictating the lives and direction of Europe by forcing the euro down the throats of everyone NEVER present themselves for election. The European population has absolutely no chance to say these people are wrong or decide to vote them out. There is no democratic process and that is what, historically, leaves only one option — REVOLUTION.

euro-digital-electric

As Bloomberg has reported, the bail-in has begun in Portugal. These people will simply confiscate our money and now they are trying to move to electronic money to prevent bank runs and hiding cash. The move to electronic money will appear in Europe first.

Bubble-Gum Machine

This is BIG BANG — the total collapse of SOCIALISM as the result of politicians who are incapable of, not just forecasting the economy, but managing it. If I managed your money and lost it each month, then returned always asking for more, just how many months would you continue to give me more money until you said enough is enough? The mere fact that politicians raise taxes PROVES they are incapable of managing even a bubble gum machine. They squander the money, and when the machine is empty they simply rob us blind to fill it up again.