COMMENT: Dear Martin,

You might find this interesting.

Today the Taal volcano in Luzon, Philippines, erupted in a violent way sending an ash plume as high as 16 km (55.000 ft).

The last time this volcano erupted was in 1977. This is 43 years ago which equals to 5*8.6.

The low solar activity seems to be stirring up things quite a bit.

Best regards,

SG

REPLY: Taal has a long history, and I believe this is the 34th record eruption since the 16th century. I also believe that so far these eruptions are generally VEI 5 or less. Currently, there are warnings that this may be a precursor to a larger eruption.

Taal is very close to Manilla. It is on an island that settlement is forbidden because it has been very active.

The current record-holder remains 2008 when the sun was blank for 268 days making the 2008-2009 solar minimum the deepest since 1913. There have been studies, besides our own correlation models, which have shown that during Solar Minimum, which is a normal part of the 11-year sunspot cycle, there is an increase in volcanic activity. The Dalton Minimum produced the 1816 event known as the Year Without a Summer.

Harvard University explained that the “Maunder Minimum (about 1645-1715) … was responsible for at least 70 years of abnormally cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere.” There appears to be an increase in volcanic activity during these Solar Minimum events. Indeed, at Taal, there were eruptions that took place in 1572, 1591, 1605, 1611, 1634, 1635, 1641, and 1645. There was a gap again until 1707, 1709 followed by 1715, 1716. 1729, 1731, 1749, and 1754 with a gap until and the Dalton Minimum began with 1790, 1825, and 1842. There were subsequent eruptions, some minor, during 1873, 1874, 1885, 1903, 1904, 1911, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1976 and 1977.

Here, there were eruptions at Taal in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 with a gap until 2019 and now 2020 as we are headed back into a Solar Minimum which NASA warns will be the lowest in 200 years. It at least appears that we should expect an increase in earthquakes and volcanic activity going into the next ECM cycle.

This is the crisis with the Climate Change activists for they are blocking any other research for fear that it will reveal there is a natural cycle unfolding, not human-driven

QUESTION: Does your computer show that the major trend is down toward cooling and in the process were are getting these wild swings from new record golds to one day wonders of hot?

Thank you

‘DK

ANSWER: Yes, the broader trend is cooling thanks to the solar minimum. But there are also wild swings from new record lows to a single day of record high temperatures. This is similar to what was taking place during the 1930s. There was the dust bowl with drought and heat in the summer, and the winters were still the coldest on record which we have not yet reached on a sustained basis. It is just nonsense to claim that the violent swings from cold to heat are caused by us driving cars around when that pattern has taken place throughout history.

Storms are also not an indication of CO2 levels as they are claiming. There was the famous Spanish Treasure Ship fleet where all 11 ships were sunk in the Hurricane of 1715. The list of the worst storms from the 19th century forward is 1804, 1806, 1821, 1900, 1903, 1938, 1944, 1955, 1960, 1999, 2011, and 2012. The worst hurricane was 1900 insofar if the measurement is the number of people dead which reached 12,000 in Galveston, Texas.

The 1938 New England Hurricane pictured here was far worse than anything we have seen in my lifetime. Computer models rooted in cyclical analysis with a long database simply reveal that there is really nothing new in weather that we have not seen before.

The bottom line is rather clear. The broader trend is moving colder. That does not mean that there will be days where the temperature will swing abruptly to a record high. We are looking at sustained trends, not a single day that makes a record low or high. It is sustained trends, not just the volatility.

QUESTION: Marty, I just read that in the Dutch so-called climate Justice case the supreme court has upheld the original 2015 ruling, legally requiring the government to reduce emissions by 25%. This appears to be the first successful such case, and it might be a precedent for the others.

What about the separation of powers if the judicial power is used as a political tool to force the hand of the executive power? Wasn’t it rather meant to be a check and balance?

Thanks for what you do.
KR

ANSWER: The judges in the Supreme Court of Netherlands have made one of the worst decisions possible. In hindsight, the ruling will be the straw that broke the back of the European economy. The judges made their decision based solely on the international human rights law. This absurd ruling fails to consider that even if the Netherlands outlawed cars, manufacture, heating of homes, and the production of electricity from anything but wind or hydroelectric, it will not change the climate of the entire planet. The only outcome is to destroy the economy of the Netherlands.

There was no proof presented which established beyond reasonable doubt that there is any connection between CO2 and climate change. Nevertheless, on the 20th of December 2019,  the Dutch Supreme Court upheld the previous decisions in the Urgenda Climate Case, which held that the Dutch government has obligations to urgently and significantly reduce emissions in line with its human rights obligations.

The judges ruled against the Dutch government, which was the first in the world in which citizens established that their government has a legal duty to prevent dangerous climate change. The ruling was based on the fact that the government has established a policy claiming it would target a reduction by 2020 from 1990 levels. The court ruled the government must cut its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 25% by the end of 2020 (compared to 1990 levels). The ruling required the government to immediately take more effective action on climate change, and in the short time span, may seriously disrupt the entire European economy.

The United Nations rejoiced in slapping down the Netherlands government as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has also published a news release about the decision in which she notes that “the decision confirms that the Government of the Netherlands and, by implication, other governments have binding legal obligations, based on international human rights law, to undertake strong reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases.”

The question whether the court has abandoned the separation of powers and is engaging in dictatorial powers is an interesting one. The court alluded to a very serious breach of democratic powers of government in confining the judicial role in cases of alleged state negligence. What if someone killed a member of your family. Is the state negligent because it failed to protect your family? The issue of protecting citizens raises the question of whether there is a duty imposed upon government and how can they achieve that protection if it exists.

The court looked at this issue and WRONGLY entered something which can lead to the collapse of the rule of law. Where the issues can be spliced and a minimum standard of protection can be reduced to quantifiable terms such as a percentage reduction. The court viewed it can dive into this question by separating the directive of ordering a reduction in CO2 from HOW that reduction is to be achieved. The court created a fictional Chinese Wall where the HOW is a policy issue not to be decided by courts. This raises the appearance that it is permissible for the courts to establish that standard but not the policy. In doing so, the court WRONGLY assumes it will remain within the correct confines of their judicial role, protecting rights rather than creating policy.

The court was well aware that it was crossing the line separating the judiciary from the legislative. Under a sub-heading entitled, “The Separation of Powers,” the court explained why the decision did not qualify as something beyond its constitutional powers. Under Dutch law, there is no true and complete separation of state powers. Instead, the Dutch system is not a democratic system which most people do not realize. As the court explained, in the Netherlands the judiciary has a “balance” of power rather than a separation of power within the constitution. They argue citizens require legal protection from the state, and created that with the power of adjudicating over those disputes.

The court reasons that the judiciary has “democratic legitimacy,” yet it is not democratically elected. Justices of the Supreme Court are appointed by royal decree, chosen from a list of three, advised by the House of Representatives on the advice of the court itself. The justices are, like every other judge in the Netherlands, appointed for life, until they retire at their own will or after reaching the age of 70. Therefore, despite its reasoning, it is outside any democratic process.

Then the court reasoned it cannot refuse to decide matters within its jurisdiction simply because there may be political ramifications. Interestingly, the fact that the multiplicity of the very nature of the debate over climate change was disregarded by the court and was never fully addressed. The court simply said it did “not have a clear picture of the magnitude and meaning of … [all] consequences,” and there was a need for some restraint in what the court should order.

What is clear is that the judges WANTED to rule most likely because they believe in climate change being humanly induced. There is no other explanation for delivering such an unbalanced decision that has the risk of destroying the economy of Netherlands for it cannot order the climate change be reversed solely upon the actions taken in the Netherlands.

The court rooted its decision, claiming that the state was in breach of its duty of care to Dutch society by failing to take sufficient mitigation measures to prevent dangerous climate change. That argument can be applied to any citizen who is harmed even by being raped by a refugee or robbed on the street at gun point. Granted, up until 2010, the government had a national target for reducing emissions by 30% by 2020 compared to 1990 levels. The government continually ascribed to make reductions of 25-40% by 2020. The reductions were only 17%, which was used as evidence showing that the government had previously agreed to this 25%-40% reduction. Therefore, the case DID NOT settle the question that climate change was actually caused by humans.

The government did not even try to argue that the scientific consensus had changed or that climate change was not proven to be caused by CO2. They government’s argument was  or that the original target was economically impossible. Indeed, a reduction of 25% by the end of 2020 will destroy the economy and cause unemployment to rise. That argument did not matter to the judges. Therefore, they did engage in a usurpation of dictatorial power.

Therefore, this decision in the Netherlands is not likely to prevail in most other jurisdictions. There is certainly no basis for this to be even made in the United States. This merely appears to be another nail in the coffin of the dying European economy.

COMMENT: So it seems that Greta Thunberg was not a true believer in climate change, but that her parents got her involved in the movement so as to help with her Aspergers and severe depression. Unbelievable–no wonder she seemed so unstable during her speeches.

MHB

REPLY: It has been well known that Greta Thunberg had severe depression issues. Her parents supported her activism as “medicine” for her depression. The Telegraph has revealed that this child has been really abused and exploited by Greenpeace’s Jennifer Morgan and Al Gore. Her father, Svante Thunberg, publicly acknowledges that he and his wife were “not climate activists” but made radical green changes to their lives as they saw the impact it had on their daughter’s mental health.

It is a real shame that this child has been exposed internationally. As the climate change agenda is exposed for the abuse that has taken place for a long time, Greta will suddenly be exposed to declining attention. What sort of  depression withdraw will she go through then? Such things can be dramatic and often lead to suicide in some situations. The exploitation of Greta should be a serious offense

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, the data used by the climate change movement only dates back to 1850. Here in Switzerland, they state that the Alps Glacier peaked with Tambora in 1815 and has been retreating ever since. If the last Little Ice Age ended in 1850, the climate should have been warming naturally from that period. It is indeed getting colder with each year since 2015 as you have warned. It seems as though independently they confirm your forecast yet strangely claim there is global warming due to humans. One only has to scratch the surface to see these claims do not add up.

PN

REPLY: The current glacier retreat in the Alps, which is due to an instrumentally documented temperature increase, constitutes the
most recent phase of a retreat period that started after the last Little Ice Age maximum around 1855. Since that date, about half of
the Alps’ glacier area has been lost. This is by no means due to humans. It grew during the Little Ice Age and it indeed reached its peak during 1815/1816, which was “The Year Without a Summer” due to the volcanic eruption of Tambora that created a volcanic winter.

You cannot analyze all glaciers with the same criteria. Steep smaller glaciers change length more quickly (whether in advance or retreat) subsequent to climate forcing than large and relatively flat glaciers do. Consequently, the Great Aletsch, which is the Alps’ largest glacier, has continuously retreated since its last Little Ice Age maximum about 1850. However, other Alpine glaciers (Gepatschferner, Lower  Grindelwald, and Suldenferner) have re-advanced two or three times during the same period, especially around 1920 and 1980.

Anyone who looks closely at the data from glaciers will see the stark differences affect comparisons of the length change history of different glaciers. Short but strong mass gains during the volcanic “Year Without a Summer” in 1816 have also greatly resulted in dynamic reactions with fast and very rapid advances that a few Alpine glaciers have undergone. One example is the Suldenferner in very short time periods of just a year or two.

It is obvious that very specific topographical situations allow for such sensitive reactions to massive snow/ice mass gains which are dependent upon the dimensions of individual glaciers (1). Comparisons of the Holocene length-change history of Alpine glaciers are
usually based on the relative extents of the same glacier observed for the past 150 years. Therefore, the shape of a retreating glacier’s tongue, as they call it, can differ greatly from that of an advancing glacier and influence the interpretation of a glacier tongue’s relative position.

It is interesting to see how poorly the analysis has been put forth with the claims of shrinking glaciers attributed all to humans. They ignore the fact that not all glaciers are the same and begin with the assumption that the peak of the Little Ice Age in 1850 should be the norm. That is no different than trying to claim the stock market ONLY advances based upon looking at the data only since 2009. They clearly have a hidden agenda and pretend to be putting forth scientific proof which is skewed and manipulated.

A reader from Thailand has sent this in. Maybe the first White Christmas in Thailand

Bangladesh has a subtropical monsoon climate characterized by wide seasonal variations in rainfall, high temperatures and humidity. The three distinct seasons in Bangladesh are hot, humid summer from March to June; a cool, rainy monsoon season from June to October; and a cool, dry winter from October to March. The summer temperatures generally range between 30°C (86 degrees Fahrenheit) and 40°C (104F). April is the warmest month in most parts of the country. January is the coldest month, when the average temperature for most of the country is about 10°C (50F).

While the cold snap has been to 4.5 degrees Celsius (40.1F), the cold weather in such a tropical climate has resulted in disease spreading including influenza which has resulted in 50 people dyingso far. This may not sound like something that drastic, but it is indicative of the risk with Global Cooling. It has been dipping down to even the 40F in northern Florida at night. The same cold has impacted even Thailand creating an unseasonably cold period.

There is a serious risk that even NASA has warned that the upcoming solar cycle (25) will be “the weakest of the past 200 years.” This correlated to previous solar minimums of prolonged periods of global cooling. Right now, our computer is projecting a very cold period ahead into 2025. Intensifying swings-in-extremes are in the weather globally has been a correlation of a historical shift to solar activity going into a minimum phase.

Scientists have been launching cosmic ray balloons since March 2015. The results obtained reveal atmospheric radiation is has been moving to historic highs in sync with the decline in solar activity. This has also resulted in an astonishing and spectacular outbreak of polar stratospheric clouds around the Arctic Circle. Keep in mind, that during solar minimums the sun’s magnetic field weakens and the outward pressure of the solar wind decreases. It is during solar minimum when the Earth is bombarded with more cosmic rays and it is believed that these rays penetrate the inner solar system as well as our planet’s atmosphere and may be the cause of the increase in volcanic activity from a correlation perspective.

Everything seems to be getting quite interesting. Our biggest problem has been the propaganda being spread by Greenpeace’s Jennifer Morgan and Al Gore which has everyone looking at Global Warming and then taking credit for the extreme cold periods claiming, without any evidence, that this is all due to CO2 along with the bush fires in Australia. They seem to be setting the world up to be totally unprepared for the real devastation of Global Cooling and how that historically has not just toppled empires, but has on a few occasions resulted in a 50% decline in population

QUESTION: Would u care to comment on after the Roman Empire fell, and how the franks a collection of tribes given there own area Holland in today’s terms then eventually taking over Europe to be broken up in to, Four after the main franks king died and split it between four sons.  It later all deteriorated , but what of the royal blood line and how does in come on to play with today’s world wide royal blood lines. And if that rise and fall has any premises of what we may face in the next wave , from the ashes. ( tribal small communities ) And were there any coins issued by the franks or his death and the splitting in to four.And are there any links to the franks from the crusades .

As always thank you and your team for providing   The knowledge , the whole world needs to understand and start the discussion, on so many up and coming life changing scenarios.

SF

ANSWER: The rise of Charlemagne came 309.6 years from the fall of Rome in 476AD. What is never discussed in the history books is the correlation with weather. Both the rise of the Vikings and the Franks coincided with the Medieval Warm Period (800–1300) and ended with the start of the Little Ice Age (about 1250–1850). It was at the end of this Global Warming period that we find the reappearance of gold coinage. The climate directly influenced the rise and fall of the Vikings. Moreover, we now know that they established a settlement for a while in America about 500 years before Columbus.

Climate was warm and fairly stable pre-180AD  which reduced the threat of volcanic winters. There was an exceptionally low level of volcanic activity which also prevailed from c. 40BC to 150AD. We have similarly experienced post-1850 in modern times a warming period with low volcanic activity.

In central Greenland, temperatures became quite warm from c. 20BC to c. 75AD. Global Cooling began in Greenland post 75AD producing a gradual relatively cool period from about c. 100 to c. 270AD. As climate began to turn colder in the northern regions of Europe, this prompted the barbarian invasions into Southern Europe which was dominated by the Roman Empire. Indeed, it was Emperor Aurelian (270-275AD) who had to build the wall around Rome for the first time. There is a lot of climate evidence that confirms the rise of the Roman Empire which peaked 180AD, coincided with a Global Warming period which peaked about 150AD.(1)

Clearly, the climate was turning much colder inspiring the barbarian invasions from the north. As the solar activity turned down, volcanic activity began to rise. The Byzantine historian Procopius wrote: “For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during the whole year.”  Temperatures in the summer plummeted creating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell as far east as China during the summer causing starvation as crops failed. The Irish chronicles recorded that “a failure of bread from the years 536–539” took place.

The mysterious clouds which engulfed the world contributed to the era being called the Dark Ages in Western Europe. From a Swiss glacier, ice core samples were obtained at the Climate Change Institute of The University of Maine. They determined that a cataclysmic volcanic eruption in Iceland spewed ash across the Northern Hemisphere during early in 536AD. Two other massive eruptions followed in subsequent years during 540AD and again during 547AD. What appears to have been three successive major volcanic eruptions, the Dark Ages entered a volcanic winter which plunged Europe into famine which lasted for nearly 100 years into 640AD. This was also solar minimum which seems to correlate to an increase in volcanic activity.

With famine comes lower nutrition leaving the people more susceptible to disease. It appears that following the 546AD eruption, we then see the Justinian Plague (541-542AD) which was a bubonic plague, involving Yersinia pestis, which struck the Roman port of Pelusium, in Egypt. This plague spread rapidly throughout the Empire wiping out one-third to one-half of the entire population of the Eastern Roman Empire.

Therefore, because of Global Cooling, crops fail and disease rises. Civilization breaks down  and trade ceases. The major solar cycle is about 300 years. Therefore, the rise of Charlemagne came 309.6 years from the fall of Rome in 476AD and it was the fall of Rome which corresponded to the climate turning colder post-150AD.

Charlemagne was the eldest son of Pepin the Short and Bertrada of Laon, born before their canonical marriage which was when a priest witnessed the marriage contract and there had to be two witnesses. The marriage contract was important for all inheritance of property centered on this contract. There were also “temporary marriages” which meant it was invalid insofar as the right to a throne would be denied the offspring of a temporary marriage.  Therefore, inheritance would only follow a canonical marriage. The coinage of Pepin the Short begins the reemergence of a denier (old Roman denarius) but it lacked any portrait.

Upon the death of Pepin, Charlemagne became king in 768 of the Franks initially as co-ruler with his brother Carloman I. However, Carloman suddenly died unexpectedly and unexplained in December 771 leaving Charlemagne as the sole ruler of the Frankish Kingdom. He then began to expand his empire conquering tribes. He became the King of the Lombards in 774, and then Emperor of the Romans from 800AD.

It was Charlemagne who reintroduced his portrait onto the coinage in Continental Europe. Charlemagne united the majority of western and central Europe attempting to reestablish his dream to resurrect the Roman Empire. He was the first recognized emperor to rule from western Europe after the fall of the western half of the Roman Empire. The expanded Frankish state that Charlemagne founded is called the Carolingian Empire which became the Holy Roman Empire.

As the climate warmed, the Vikings also grew in power and were able to explore even reaching America. Their invasion of England was like the barbarians invading Rome. According to the Annals of Ulster, the sack of the Holy Island of Lindisfarne in 793/794, which is a tidal island off the northeast coast of England, marked the beginning of the Viking Age. This event also coincided with Charlemagne’s (768-814) Saxon War, which was a Christian war against the Pagans in Saxony. The Viking attacks may have actually been a response to the spread of Christianity among Pagans since it coincides with the reign of Charlemagne and the attempt to spread Christianity into Scandinavia. The Vikings may have invaded England because of the attacks by the Franks trying to move northward.

Charlemagne’s empire indeed broke apart much as was the case with the collapse of Alexander the Great’s Empire which was divided among his generals. Even NASA is forecasting that the next solar cycle will be the lowest in hundreds of years. If we see the continued rise in volcanic activity, then there is a serious threat of a prolonged Global Cooling which may explain the computer projection for 2032 being the culmination of the Sixth Wave. What is clear, has been the fact that Climate Change people are blaming everything on the Industrial Revolution. They seek to reduce population and to reverse the economic growth of society. They have achieved much of their goals in Europe with excessive regulation and even the ECB claiming it needs to protect society from Climate Change. All of these regulations fighting against a natural trend in nature will contribute greatly to the fall of Europe rather profoundly and its ultimate breakup for the culmination of 2032.

1) A. G. Brown et al., “Roman Vineyards in Britain: Stratigraphic and Palynological Data from Wollaston in the Nene Valley, England,” Antiquity, LXXV (2001), 706–757; Marijke van der Veen, “Food as Embodied Material Culture: Diversity and Change in Plant Food Consumption in Roman Britain,” Journal of Roman Archaeology, XXI (2008), 83–109; Harry Kenward, “Insect Remains from the Romano-British Ditch Terminal at the Flodden Hill Rectilinear Enclosure,” in “Reports from the Environmental Archaeology Unit, York 2001/49” (2001), available at http://www.york.ac.uk/inst/chumpal/EAU-reps/eau01-49. pdf. Future research should increase the archaeoentomological evidence, given the potential of ancient dna detection of insect presence invisible to the eye in archaeological soil. See Philip Francis Thomsen et al., “Non-Destructive Sampling of Ancient Insect DNA,” PLoS ONE, IV (2009), e5048. For details about the written evidence summarized in Figures 6a and 6b, see the relevant entries in McCormick, Harper, and More, “Geodatabase of Historical Evidence on Roman and Post-Roman Climate,” in McCormick et al. (eds.), “Digital Atlas of Roman and Medieval Civilizations” at http://darmc.harvard.edu/.