Armstrong Economics Blog
Re-Posted Mar 6, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Beware of the IMF. They are seeking to emerge as the leader of a new one-world currency system.
Beware of the IMF. They are seeking to emerge as the leader of a new one-world currency system.
Bavarian banks have figured out that negative interest rates are insane. They must pay the ECB to hold their cash. They have decided it is better to store their cash and eliminate deposits at the ECB as reported by Spiegel Online. These people are just brain dead. They think negative interest rates will somehow “stimulate” the economy. No, they
Sometimes you really have to ask: Is French President Francois Hollande simply clueless? At a European Union summit, Hollande said he opposes Britain’s demands for special treatment for its financial markets as a way to keep Britain in the bloc. Hollande has bluntly said that Britain cannot veto what happens in the Eurozone. Hollande’s socialist agenda will never yield. He is so out of touch with reality. If Britain remains in the EU, it will be the end of the financial markets in Britain. You definitely want to get your money out before you cannot. There is little doubt that Hollande will outlaw shorts, and that will destroy liquidity. This may be the final straw that diverts the financial capital of the world to Asia
This is war and in war the tactical plan ends when the battle begins. So far trump is ahead but there is still a long way to go — Trump needs to win Ohio and win in Florida those are must wins and we must do everything we can to achieve that goal.
The Commodity industry is bracing for a high year of bankruptcy and default filings impacting mining & metals along with oil & gas. Moody’s has also warned of global speculative-grade corporate defaults will increase by more than 30% in 2016 reaching the highest level since 2009. Those interested in mining shares should pay close attention to what you are buying. Until gold crosses that key resistance, we still have only a typical 3 month reaction. A rally must extend beyond March to be impressive.
Moody’s lowers outlook on China’s credit rating to negative from stable. We have been warning that our models on China indicate that the bottom in the economy does not appear likely until 2020. This should be a 13 year contraction. So far that forecast appears to be on target.
Part of the collapse in confidence we are experiencing with government stems directly from the fact that politicians engage in far more criminal behavior than anyone in the corporate world. While bankers may manipulate markets to trade against clients, politicians just lie to keep their jobs. The fact that they are incapable of managing the country, no less the economy, is coming to a head. The pension crisis we face emerges from all the promises of socialism. The crisis sprung from the fact that they don’t fund much of their promises and just assume there are enough schmucks to tax.
What played out in Detroit was critical but they ignored the problem. Pensions exceeded 50% of the budget and the city could not raise taxes because people just left town. Now in Kansas, workers are discovering that after 33 years they are facing a 51% cut to their pensions. The Central States Pension Fund that covers 400,000 participants (220,000 of them are retired) will go completely bust within 10 years.
This story will replay over and over again throughout the country on the other side of 2017.9 (Nov 24/25, 2017). We should begin to read more and more about this problem when we pass 2016.825 (October 28, 2016).
So it would seem that some of our “friends” may not really be our friends — and that the deceit goes much deeper than most of us thought.
Technically, the Dow Jones Industrials was almost set up to make a “Channel Move” between two channels. But they interestingly over-lapped instead with no gap between. This is one reason the SP500 could break last years low but not the Dow. We made a new high for the month on Friday closing at 16639.97. We elected a minor Monthly Bullish Reversal in the Dow last month at 16175. Here the low remains the week of January 20th. We really need a monthly closing above 17800 to signal a breakout to the upside is likely. We have a Directional Change in March and the target for a turning point comes in April and then June.
Keep in mind that is the Euro starts to give way, more and more capital will flee Europe into the USA. The smart money will buy the equity rather than government bonds.
A month-end closing ABOVE 16934 will be bullish. A closing beneath this level is will still bearish near-term.

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