Moody’s Lowers Credit Rating of China to Negative from Stable


beijing-2

Moody’s lowers outlook on China’s credit rating to negative from stable. We have been warning that our models on China indicate that the bottom in the economy does not appear likely until 2020. This should be a 13 year contraction. So far that forecast appears to be on target.

The Unfolding Pension Crisis


Pension-Crisis

Part of the collapse in confidence we are experiencing with government stems directly from the fact that politicians engage in far more criminal behavior than anyone in the corporate world. While bankers may manipulate markets to trade against clients, politicians just lie to keep their jobs. The fact that they are incapable of managing the country, no less the economy, is coming to a head. The pension crisis we face emerges from all the promises of socialism. The crisis sprung from the fact that they don’t fund much of their promises and just assume there are enough schmucks to tax.

What played out in Detroit was critical but they ignored the problem. Pensions exceeded 50% of the budget and the city could not raise taxes because people just left town. Now in Kansas, workers are discovering that after 33 years they are facing a 51% cut to their pensions. The Central States Pension Fund that covers 400,000 participants (220,000 of them are retired) will go completely bust within 10 years.

934-ECM 2011 - 2020

This story will replay over and over again throughout the country on the other side of 2017.9 (Nov 24/25, 2017). We should begin to read more and more about this problem when we pass 2016.825 (October 28, 2016).

Bombshell Expose’ – Conservative Radio: Limbaugh, Ingraham, Hannity and Levin Were All Part of Gang-of-Eight “Gaslighting”…


So it would seem that some of our “friends” may not really be our friends — and that the deceit goes much deeper than most of us thought.

Dow Outlook – Month End February 2016


DJIND-M 2-27-2016

 

Technically, the Dow Jones Industrials was almost set up to make a “Channel Move” between two channels. But they interestingly over-lapped instead with no gap between. This is one reason the SP500 could break last years low but not the Dow. We made a new high for the month on Friday closing at 16639.97. We elected a minor Monthly Bullish Reversal in the Dow last month at 16175. Here the low remains the week of January 20th. We really need a monthly closing above 17800 to signal a breakout to the upside is likely. We have a Directional Change in March and the target for a turning point comes in April and then June.

Keep in mind that is the Euro starts to give way, more and more capital will flee Europe into the USA. The smart money will buy the equity rather than government bonds.

A month-end closing ABOVE 16934 will be bullish. A closing beneath this level is will still bearish near-term.

GDP Declines When Govt. Grows — This is Basic Common Sense


Armey Curve

A reader has contributed these charts that demonstrate why the socialist agenda is destroying the world. As the reader points out: “It seems that the optimal govt spending (share) is max 35% (US, AUS), and not >50% like in Europe. Lower govt expenditure has doubled GDP at least in the recent history.” The socialists refuse to listen simply because they are greedy. If you earn $1,000 and your rent if $200, your disposable income is $800. If government demands 10%, you have $720 to spend; if government demands 50%, you have $400. This is why we call them “public servants” for they consume wealth; they do not produce it.
OECD Debt Growth
The OECD has done studies but nobody ever pays attention. Any way you cut it, the larger the share of the economy consumed by the government, the lower the economic growth. So the sublime fool never looks at the data and simply regurgitates the same socialist propaganda into infinity. They live in a state of total denial simply because the core of their position is sheer material jealousy. They justify robbing other people because they lack the wealth they wish they had. It is just a question of greed.

The Socialist Lie that We have Always had A Growth Economy Since Roosevelt


US GDP Annual Growth Rate 1947 - 2016

A comment by a reader with a philosopher was interesting and delusional at the same time. “Armstrong chose not to seek any compromise but to put all the blame on government. In principle, that’s got to be an absurd point of view. So it seems to me. One more thing, to his alleged factual correlation. Government really began to grow during the Roosevelt years, including the war years, and the economy has been growing ever since. Is your buddy playing fast and loose with history and, hence, with reality?”

Corporations only get influence because they buy government and that is possible only because we have career politicians. Corporations cannot run the world for they compete against each other. We do need government, but an honest one. The only way to achieve that is the shorter terms of office and one time only. It should be more of a citizen government and any conflict of interest is a bar to any office in any capacity. Cruz’s wife works at Goldman Sachs. Hillary will not release transcripts of her speeches for Goldman Sachs. They buy candidates and own Washington, DC. We deserve what we vote for and stupidly believe in. We are the fools who soak up all the lies each and every time and then the press is anything but independent and free.  Hillary has raised tens of millions from the very banks on Wall Street she claims she will stand against. Come on. If that was remotely true, they would not give her a dime. The call Sanders and Trump dangerous because they are not bought and paid for by the bankers.

2017-Budget Deficit

More over, the idea that we have lived in some fantastic socialist era with GDP always expanding is an outright LIE if not a delusional statement by someone who refuses to look at the trend. At the top, is a chart of the government’s own source, the Bureau of Economic Analysis. GDP growth has been declining steadily as taxes rise. Like China, its first blast of GDP growth came at the beginning. It was true for the West as well following World War II. GDP growth has steadily decline to where a good number is less than population growth. Social Security collapses in 2017 as illustrated by this second chart which is also prepared by government. This is the entire problem. People are clueless as to the trend and do not want to open their eyes to reality.

USIntAs%Total

Why do the NY bankers fund the bulk of the candidates? Well certainly to buy their get out of jail free card. There is no possible way they will ever criminally imprison the bankers who have destroyed our future because who would then FUND people like Hillary or Cruz? Secondly, if Socialism is not a bullshit story, then why have we reached at times 70% of the entire national debt is accumulated interest? That money created no schools, roads, fed children, or funded welfare. The bulk of the debt has been interest paid to the bondholders.

Youth Employment

Why is the youth going for Sanders and Trump? Why do we have a generational gap in voting that appeared first even in Scotland? Socialism is collapsing because the older generation have paid into a system they do not want to think about is falling apart when it is time to get their’s. So they live in a delusional world that ignores everything factual around them and cannot see they are robbing their own children of the very life they enjoyed.

 

Total-Government-Expenditure-as-a-Percent-of-GDP-vs-Growth-Rate

This is a chart from the OECD which clearly shows that higher the tax rate, the lower the economic growth. I for one hope the country splits in two and we can build a wall not between Mexico and USA, but between left and right. Let all the left socialists who want to steal from everyone else because they can so they do not have to earn in life, live on one side of the wall and chase each other in circles. The rest of us can live in peace. After all, it is one of the Ten Commandments – Thou shalt not covet their neighbor’s goods. The Pope says building a Wall is not being Christian. That is not one of the Ten Commandments. It is not being Christian or Jewish to drool over robbing other people’s money. Christ did not preach socialism by government force. It is no longer charity when it is involuntary.

In my mind, the legal challenge against Income Tax (which requires the surrender of privacy) is that such taxes violate the First Amendment, Freedom of Religion. Socialism and progressive taxation as well as the coveting and hatred of anyone who has more money violates the Ten Commandments. This is no different from Communism which preached the state is your parent, not your biological parents, and if they said anything against the State, the children were obligated to report them. Marx also said: “Religion is the opium of the people.” Socialists should admit the father of the beliefs and what he stood for – there is no God.

The Edelman Trust Barometer shows collapsing Trust in Government!


ECM-1970-2084

I have stated that Trump is the symptom and he is soaring because confidence in government is collapsing. The 2016 Edelman Trust Barometer, an annual global survey that assesses various levels of trust, reveals this shift from public to private as reported by Forbes.

The EU is now past the point of No Return and will began to implode in March


ECM-Euro

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; The World Economic Conference was outstanding. Your theme that Europe was the focal point for the coming chaos has been proven valid with each passing day. You have mentioned this is the time that will begin the collapse in public confidence within the EU even surviving. I must ask. Do you believe if they call you in and followed everything you have said, is it just too late to save Europe?

Thank you so much

PB

ANSWER: Unfortunately, I know how to restructure Europe so it would function, but I do not believe that would even be sufficient at this stage in the game. We have probably reached the point of no return. All that is now left is the crash and burn. Only then will society reform. I simply believe we crossed that line last year. We began a new declining cycle in 2008 and that was the peak in the Euro as well. The start of the real decline in the Euro where mainstream capital begins to question when negative rates can really reverse or stimulate the economy unfolds after 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016. This is not my personal opinion. This is just the modeling.

This seems to be so important we will try to put together a video on this matter.

Almost all Income Inequality is caused by Government Taxes!


Social Inequality

QUESTION:

Dear Martin Armstrong,

I appreciate very much your economic analysis and read your blog nearly daily although I disagree with some of your political statements.

In your last blog about Schengen you mention that “Everything is connected and nothing takes place in some isolated vacuum”.  Obvious.

According to me, and many others re-known economists like Joseph Stiglizt or Paul Krugman, one of the problems in the current world is the exponential increase of social inequality and  massive collection of wealth in few hands.

How is it possible that barely the 60 richest people can have the same wealth as half of the population (3.6 billion)? Is this acceptable? What would be the solution in your opinion? Because just free markets will reinforce not decrease the actual trend and you seem to be “socialist”-averse although some sort of redistribution of wealth should be done, I suppose, but how?.

Thanks for your great work

BR

ANSWER: This is a Marxist diversion. It focuses only on the “rich” and ignores the fact that government continues to expand and consume wealth. The “wealth” that everyone points to for the richest people is by no means a product of WAGES, rather it is created on paper valuations of investment. At the same time, that “wealth” dropped $1 trillion just in the January decline this year. It is NOT actual “money” in that sense. It is no different than your home being worth $500,000 one day and then $200,000 a month later.

Total-Government-Expenditure-as-a-Percent-of-GDP-vs-Growth-Rate

“Social inequality” remains the headline grabber, yet the larger government becomes, the lower the economic growth. The OECD itself illustrates this. Higher taxes reduce economic growth, plain and simple. Then we have the average person who is robbed by about 50%+ between income taxes (federal and state), property taxes, fees, tools, and sales taxes. All of this goes to sustain government; it does NOT raise the living standard of the average person. Europe is even worse.

I tried to save Social Security on Capitol Hill. I argued to convert it to a wealth fund and allow it to invest exactly as the “rich” employ their money rather than stuffing it with depreciating government bonds. When I DONATED my time on Capitol Hill, the Dow was 1,000. That would now be 17 times more and amply enough to retired on. Social Security goes bust next year, and with interest rates manipulated lower you will get nothing.

Then the government charges payroll taxes on the average worker. Sure, they hand you a refund check at year-end. So they are borrowing from the average person and NOT paying them any interest. The government robs your ability to save and grow “rich” by stuffing your money in government bonds under Social Security.

Government creates “social inequality” by robbing the poor and middle classes while pretending to care. If we eliminated government federal income taxes, most people would take home at least 30% more.

Tax RobberyThe problem is NOT that the “rich” make money from investment; it is that the rest of society is DENIED the right to invest to get ahead because the government is bleeding everyone dry. Take all the money from the “rich” and we end up with communism, which will not improve your life in the least. So you do not stand a chance of surviving the future unless we start looking at the real culprit here. This is like a baseball game: the pitcher only focuses on the batter while those on base are stealing the next one unnoticed. We need to pay attention before there is no future for our posterity. Thank God I am not 18. I really do not want to live in a world run in this manner. This is not like Star Trek: “Scotty. Beam me up PLEASE!

Monopoly Goes Cashless — The Coming New World Totalitarian Order


Monopoly-Cashless

Well, Monopoly is going cashless. It looks like the game company sees the writing on the wall and are preparing the kids for the new world order — a cashless society.