Tag Archives: Money

Dec 16 2024

We can Add Any Stock Worldwide to Socrates


Posted originally on Dec 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

Socrates IPad

QUESTION #1: Mr. Armstrong, you used to provide your reports rebranded to an institution’s name in Tokyo. Would you consider that for other countries?

GL

ANSWER #1: Yes. We would articulate the turning points rather than include the arrays. That would make it too identifiable, tracing back to us. But certainly, we can do that and attack an institution’s name, such as a reputable bank or brokerage house. We can replace the majority of the cost of research. We have a database of virtually every stock in the world.

QUESTION #2: Can I request that a particular stock be added to Socrates?

EJ

ANSWER #2: Certainly.

Dec 10 2024

IMF Wants El Salvador to Repeal Bitcoin’s Legal Tender Status


Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

ElSalvadorBukele

The International Monetary Fund is willing to provide El Salvador with a $1.3 billion loan, but the nation must meet two demands. First, El Salvador must commit to reducing its budget deficit to 3.5% of GDP over the next three years. The second requirement is for El Salvador to begin backing away from bitcoin.

El Salvador declared bitcoin legal tender in 2021. The nation holds a bitcoin Treasury worth over $600 million as of lately with bitcoin’s recent price spike and has been purchasing about 1 btc per day. President Nayib Bukele recently took to social media to declare the success of his bitcoin adaptation, claiming gains of over 127%. Yet, the public has not largely adopted the new currency. In fact, the Central American University conducted a study in January that revealed 88% of citizens have not used bitcoin in transactions over the previous year.

Under the new IMF requirement, El Salvador must prohibit the legal requirement that states businesses must accept bitcoin as payment. Under this premise, bitcoin could not truly be considered legal tender.

Bitcoin and Gold

As I have said, global organizations will not permit crypto to operate freely outside their control. I must agree with the IMF that Bitcoin’s volatile pricing presents financial instability and exposes government revenue to greater foreign exchange rate risks. Bitcoin is merely a trading vehicle and not a proper currency. However, the IMF also states that it is concerned about anti-money laundering practices. which simply means they are concerned that they cannot tax it.

Taxation goes hand in hand with lowering the budget deficit, as the nation has been steadily increasing tax revenue. Tax revenues reached 17.64% of GDP in 2017, later advancing to 19.75% in 2022. The government has several measures in place for tax evasion and has improved its digital taxpayer registry to see who has underpaid. There is hope that the recent discovery of gold will offset the hunt for taxation, and the president does seem to be a reasonable man. Perhaps El Salvador will not require a loan if it has truly found trillions worth of gold. It appears that Nayib Bukele will not back away from his stance on bitcoin either way.

Dec 5 2024

Sheriff Mack: If We’re Gonna Clean Up D.C. We Need A ‘New Sheriff In Town’


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Dec 4, 2024 at 7:30 pm EST

Nov 12 2024

Why Bitcoin Will NOT Replace the Dollar


Posted originally on Nov 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Bitcoins

People continue to ask if Bitcoin will replace the dollar. They believe that the recent surge in Bitcoin indicates that it will topple the USD as the world’s reserve currency, but that is merely propaganda. You must understand that Bitcoin is simply a trading vehicle, not a currency. I cannot stress that point enough. My opinion has been unpopular, and clients have walked away due to my stance on crypto. That’s fine, as I am not in this for the money. I can only adequately inform my clients of the unbiased truth and hope that those willing to listen will heed the computer’s warnings.

To begin with, there is much speculation about the founder(s) — Satoshi Nakamoto – who created Bitcoin (BTC) on June 3, 2009. The mystery person or group (or government agency) has been MIA since 2011. Yet 1 million Bitcoins remain in their original account, untouched. His wallet is estimated to be worth over $81 billion at the time of this writing, and if this is indeed an individual, he or she is one of the top 15 richest people in the world. They have never moved a fraction of a BTC from their account. So, one wallet contains 5% of all mined bitcoin. Will this person or entity perpetually hold?

They expect us to believe some mysterious Japanese man created the blockchain technology and simply evaded all world governments. They claim Bitcoin is an anti-government vehicle, but it is a bureaucrat’s dream because it allows them to track where funds are coming from and going. In 1996, the US government released a white paper entitled, “How to make a mint: the cryptography of anonymous electronic cash.” Released by the National Security Agency Office of Information Security Research and Technology, this document explains how a government agency could create something like Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency. They had been attempting to create one for years and then magically Bitcoin came on the scene.

I encourage anyone interested in crypto to read my article regarding this study. Blockchain was created with surveillance at the top of mind.

HowtoMakeaMint2

Bitcoin’s price is akin to the problem that existed when the bubble burst in 1966 with mutual funds because they were listed back then. The value can change at a volatility rate of 10x that of the dollar, making it a highly dangerous instrument as a store of wealth. It is solely a trading vehicle until they weigh it and the value is changed.

1966Crash D
DJIND M 1966 1968 1970

In 1966, investors bid the mutual funds up beyond net asset value, so during the crash, people lost everything when they thought it was a secure investment. The net underlying assets may have dropped 20%, but they paid 20% over the net asset value and then sold at 50% of the net asset value. Many mutual funds crashed 70-90%, whereas the Dow drop was 26.5%. Ever since mutual funds have no longer been allowed to be listed. You go in and out at net asset value. Bitcoin must change its structure, or it will never become a valid currency with a stable store of value, which is supposed to be the whole point. It is just an asset class of high volatility.

I have not been bullish on digital currency, as it’s a trading vehicle no different than any other commodity or stock. Sure, a profit could be made, and many have had great success. We do include Bitcoin in our models, and those subscribed to Socrates will see that our arrays are picking up on Bitcoin next year.

Bitcoin is a trading vehicle that is no different from wheat or cattle. It is NOT a store of wealth, as it fluctuates like everything else. It rises and falls no different than any other trading instrument. It is not a “store” of value maintaining some constant value to park your money. We need to get realistic here. The concept of Bitcoin replacing the dollar fails to comprehend what makes something the world’s reserve currency. I will write a piece explaining that aspect since it is crucial to understand.

Oct 11 2024

President Trump Delivers Remarks at Detroit Economic Club – 2:00pm EDT Livestream


Posted originally on the CTH on October 10, 2024 | Sundance 

Today, President Donald Trump heads back to Michigan for a speech at the Detroit Economic Club.  The keynote address is scheduled to start at 2:00pm EDT, with RSBN providing coverage starting around noon.  Livestream Links Below:

UPDATE: VIDEO ADDED

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RSBN YouTube Livestream – RSBN Rumble Livestream

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Oct 3 2024

Eric Teetsel: “This Isn’t A Thought Problem In A Micro Econ Class, These Are Real Countries”


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Oct 02, 2024 at 08:00 pm EST

Sep 10 2024

Forecasting RecessionsForecasting


Posted originally on Sep 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |  

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I find it incorrigible that everyone now claims recession when they have never predicted a recession before. That was clear from the video you had of Larry Summers, who admitted nobody could do that. It is very strange how you are the only person who has ever forecast recessions and new highs in markets when everyone was called the opposite. Even in August, you had these people clamoring for an emergency rate cut while you said it was a three-day plunge and a new high would follow.

US GDP 4 25 24

I looked back, and even in your April 25, 2024 post, you said a recession would follow the ECM turn on May 7th. Nobody gives you credit. They all copy you. But without you, they have no forecast. They are stupid, for what you have done is essential for society. These people want to pretend they are something they are not.

They do not even understand what makes a recession unfold.

Thank you so much. I wish people would be honest and give you credit, for that is the only way to hope for what comes after 2032. All they do is plagiarize you.

Peter

ECM 2020 2028 R

REPLY: Sadly, what you are describing is human nature. We are a flawed species – tragic in so many ways, like a Greek play. We seem to cling to our expectations of a just and moral world when history records anything but morality. And Thraymachus basically said JUSTICE is always the same – the self-interest of those in power – JUST US is the real spelling.

We have Europe and South America censuring free speech because the LEFT does not believe in civilization; they only see their own self-interest. Their failure in life is caused by the success of others—never themselves. As a species, we seem to believe there is ethical meaning behind everything when we live in an unethical and meaningless world that bathes only in self-interest.

Recession Global

I understand what you mean. Only this model has projected booms, busts, and recessions decades in advance. We have to learn to live with the cycle. Pretending you called a recession from a gut feeling or just looking at US statistics is a joke. We are all in this together. The US cannot withstand a global recession. That is why I say we are all connected. When you have the Neocons threatening war on four fronts, China, Korea, Russia, and Iran, the future is colored with uncertainty. That results in the contraction of spending.

Then, inflation is set in motion by shortages and tax increases. Throw in Kamala’s taxation of unrealized gains and make it only the billionaires. They are then forced to see stock to pay the tax, and you create the biggest crash in history that wipes out people’s pensions. NOTHING takes place in isolation. NEVER do the Democrats ever once question their spending. They are Marxists and must constantly promise more, never less, and that necessitates endless tax increases that always reduce GDP.

InvisibleHand 2

It’s always the invisible hand – we all act in our own self-interest.

Aug 30 2024

Why Formal Education Can Be Just Propaganda


Posted originally on Aug 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Galbraith Great Crash
Herbert Hoover Memoirs

When I was in high school history class, I had to read Galbraith’s The Great Crash. It was not until I came across a two-volume set of Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs that my eyes were pulled open. Nowhere in Galbraith’s book was there ever any mention of a 1931 Sovereign Debt Default because he was a Socialist, and the object of his book was to pin all the blame on corporations and the rich. He omitted everything that ever remotely pointed to the government as a cause. We should all own nothing, shut up, and be happy. Speak up, and today, you go to prison for Free Speech.

The conflict surfaced in my mind in high school. As I have said, in physics class they said nothing is random. Then in economics class, they said everything is random so government has the power to manipulate society and prevent recessions. That was a conflict to me that began my questioning of what I was being taught.

It is becoming painfully obvious schools are programming children for political agendas. This is very Stalinistic, for he, too, instructed children that the state was their parent and if their biological parents ever said anything against the state, they were to report them.

It has gotten far worse than when I was a kid. They were trying to brainwash us that the government is good and the corporate world is all evil. Today, that has gone into being gay, changing your gender, and not telling the parents like Stalin for the State is your parent. This is a movement to reduce the population to make Schwab, Gates, and Soros happy.

What does this all say? Today, if I had to start over, I would choose homeschooling.

(read Chapter on 1931)

Hoover Quote
Jun 10 2024

Why is Keynesian Economics Collapsing?


Posted originally on Jun 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Keynes 5

John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 book, ‘The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money,” argued aggregate demand was too volatile to be stable and would lead to inflation or recessions. His theory honed in on spending as a means of price control. Low aggregate demand, Keynes argues, would lead to high unemployment and stagflation. Government could intervene through fiscal policies to increase aggregate demand, as an example, increased government spending could tame inflation. Interest rates, according to Keynes, could also be modified to encourage spending and stimulate demand. So why are these theories failing miserably today?

To begin, the United States had a balanced budget when Keynes presented his theory. The government is now the biggest borrower, acting in its own self interest under Adam Smith’s theory of the invisible hand that Keynes spent his career attempting to deny. According to Keynes, “there is no self-correcting mechanism in a free market economy that automatically restores full employment.” He believed that the government could change the business cycle but arguably regretted this notion on his deathbed.

Keynesian economics gave the government the green light to manipulate the economy, or at least make numerous failed attempted to do so. There is that old joke about communism that you can vote your way in but must shoot your way out, seemingly fitting to the utter disaster governments have created in regards to our economic situation.

Keynes quote on Invisible Hand

The government is by far the biggest borrower. Raising interest rates can have no impact on demand, as the government will simply borrow more, and the central banks simply have no say. During the Great Depression, for example, Washington forced the Federal Reserve to implement QE policies to artificially lower rates to increase demand. Yet, when Washington ordered the Federal Reserve to do the same during the Korean War in 1951, the central bank first broke with Washinton and refused to comply as it knew it would hurt the economy as America’s budget was no longer balanced.

Quantitative Easing destroyed the Keynesian model, and there is now no other alternative for central banks to control the economy. If they raise rates, the budget explodes. The Keynesians advocate manipulating demand and advocate fiscal spending that the central bank cannot control. However, the other part of Keynesianism is the manipulation of taxes. Keynes argued that to stimulate demand, you lower taxes. He saw this correctly, but again, it does not fit with government agendas.

There is no limit to what the government will spend with “money” that simply does not exist. Governments continue to borrow perpetually with no real intention of paying back their debts. This is one piece of the Sovereign Debt Crisis that will implode like a nuclear bomb the likes of which we have never witnessed. The business cycle cannot be manipulated, and what’s more, the Keynesian model cannot account for declining confidence in both government and the economy.

Jun 5 2024

Fed President Says Americans Would Prefer a Recession to Inflation


Posted originally on Jun 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Fed Ship in STorm

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari has advised against anticipating near-term rate cuts. While speaking to the Financial Times, the Fed president stated that people would simply prefer a recession to continued inflation.

“I have learned that the American people—and maybe people in Europe equally—really hate high inflation. I mean, really viscerally hate high inflation,” he told the Financial Times’ The Economics Show podcast. Kashkari is speaking as if we are not already in a recession. It is not difficult to understand the “visceral” hatred people around the world feel toward rising prices. The effects of inflation are felt with every purchase, causing the average person to adjust their entire lifestyle.

3 faces of Inflation Dragon

Vague issues such as rising unemployment or declining wages do not impact everyone. “I lose my job, I lean on my sister or my parents or my friends, and they help me through it. But high inflation affects everybody. There’s no one I can lean on for help because everyone in my network is experiencing the same thing I’m experiencing,” Kashkari explained. Mass layoffs, for example, would only impact a fragment of the overall population, and people would feel lucky simply to keep their jobs.

“In the US, GDP has been remarkably strong, very strong,” he noted. “The labor market has been resilient. Wage growth has been mostly resilient. And we’re seeing even the housing market has shown signs of resilience. So if I look at this resilience and economic activity, that does not look like an economy that is under pressure of very high, very tight monetary policy.” Yet, inflation is outpacing wage increases and people are watching their savings dwindle while spending less. The average person cares not of the health of the overall economy as they simply want to be able to continue maintaining or improving their standard of living. Most Americans, for example, do not invest and live paycheck to paycheck.

CPI Formula

Real prices have far surpassed anything they calculate in CPI. Everyone understands that prices have risen far more than the arbitrary number the Fed provides us. Taxes are continually increasing for everyone in every tax bracket. The government not only adds to inflationary issues with their spending but then expects their citizens to foot a portion of the bill with taxes, which will simply never be enough.

Then we have Washington telling the masses to blame corporations for price gouging while raising their taxes and making it increasingly difficult to conduct business and maintain a large workforce. It is not that the people would prefer to be in a recession, the real issue is that countless people are entering survival mode. People everywhere want to hold onto whatever they may have out of fear for the future, but they are unable even to hoard as real prices now demand they hand over whatever they have to maintain their lives.