Approximately ten or so years ago increases in Global temperatures slowed down and then actually reversed. This is fact not speculation for if you take any of the NASA LOTI releases put them in a spreadsheet and then draw a chart and add a trend line using the polynomial Order 3 option the resultant plot will turn down around 2010. The generated plot will also follow the NASA LOTI data very nicely going back to 1880, even with the data manipulation that they have resorted to, to hide the current move down in Global Temperatures.

This downturn has created an unexpected problem for those that want to change how we live in the U.S. with the UN Agenda 21 sustainable world they have already started to implement. Since the main premise was the CO2 emissions from power generation was their culprit that meant that source must be eliminated; however if the Global temperature was not going up than there was a “major” problem with their core belief which also included moving away from a free people to a system where the people were controlled, for their own good. The control of the people was required since the Warmest’s needed to reduce the people’s energy usage and the people would not support a reduced standard of living without coercion.

When NASA realized that they had a problem with CO2 going up and Global temperatures going down they resorted to manipulating the data though the “Homogenization” process they use to blend all the data collected into one Global temperature. The process they used created an upward movement in Temperatures’ that was obvious to anyone that looked and in the past on this blog I have talked about it. Because of the intentional change of data and trends that NASA has been doing I was mislead a few weeks ago when I issued my monthly report which I have done for the past year. I compared the January 2015 values to the wrong past values and although the change was in the same direction it was not to the same magnitude as I showed. For that I must apologize.

This post is using the correct data and will give the same result just to a slightly lesser degree. I have also added a forecast of what I think NASA will do with the temperatures over the next several months as they need to support the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) which will be held in France at the Le Bourget site from 30 November to 11 December 2015 and the conference objective is to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, from all the nations of the world.

To achieve this they have determined that they need to show that the planet is overheating, whether it is or not, and since it is not (by satellite data) they need to show it in another form, hence the data manipulation at NASA-GISS.

This manipulation is shown in the next three Charts which all use LOTI data the first from December 1998 (Red) and the second from January 2015 (Blue) which trend lines as required in the same colors. The first is in the period January 1880 to December 1950 which is the entire temperature series up to the point that NASA uses to determine their anomaly. The anomaly is the base temperature that NASA uses to measure temperature changes from. The second Chart is the period used to determine the NASA anomaly which is from January 1951 to December 1980, 30 years. The third Chart, actually a series of Charts on the same period, is from January 1981 to the present. To support the need for a warmer present they will need to move the 1880 to 1950 data down, keep the 1951 to 1980 data constant and move the 1980 to the present data up as much as possible. If that can be shown in the following Charts then that proves what is being down since no other change would produce this effect.

Clearly, in this Chart, the past temperatures have been moved down almost a quarter of a degree C in 1880 from the 1998 red plot to the 2015 blue plot. Further the two trends almost merge at the December 1950 date since they cannot change that period since it sets the anomaly value of zero or 14.0 degrees Celsius. Random changes or adjustments would not do this.

We can see in this Chart that there is some movement in both trend lines; both are slightly below 0 in 1951 and slightly above zero in 1980. They also appear to be offsetting so we’ll check that by adding all the anomalies from this period to see if they cancel and they do. There are 360 values in that period and the 1998 series adds up to -2 and the 2015 series adds up to 4. I would be willing to bet if we looked at rounding differences the differences would be even closer to zero. So again we have proof that the manipulation of the data is not without purpose since any programmed change, with a purpose, must keep this period at or almost at zero anomalies.

This next potion, from 1981 to the present, is a bit more complex since it is showing the planned results of the NASA data manipulation so we are going to show a series of Charts. Since the 1998 red plot only goes to 1998 we can’t do a one for one comparison but we can see that for the period where the two plots are common the blue plots are above the red on the upside and the red plots are below the blue on the down side indicating that the blue plot is showing a warmer temperature and this is verified when we add the trend lines which clearly show that the blue trend is shifted up. Because NASA had to keep the 1951 to 1980 period constant the trend lines are closer together in 1981 than they are later on in 2015; this is additional prove of the manipulation

Next we get rid of the linear trend to the 2015 data and add a polynomial trend using a 3^rd order to see if it gives a better fit to the data and it does. This trend clearly shows the Global temperature peak around 2010/2011 and the down trend ever since. This is especially true if we would ignore the last couple of years where the data manipulation has started.

Sir Karl Raimund Popper (28 July 1902 – 17 September 1994) was an Austrian and British philosopher and a professor at the London School of Economics. He is considered one of the most influential philosophers of science of the 20th century, and he also wrote extensively on social and political philosophy. The following quotes of his apply to this subject.

If we are uncritical we shall always find what we want: we shall look for, and find, confirmations, and we shall look away from, and not see, whatever might be dangerous to our pet theories.

Whenever a theory appears to you as the only possible one, take this as a sign that you have neither understood the theory nor the problem which it was intended to solve.

… (S)cience is one of the very few human activities — perhaps the only one — in which errors are systematically criticized and fairly often, in time, corrected

Part Five Geological Facts

This will be a short section placed here to show what the past was until recently when all this history mysteriously disappeared. The point to these Charts is that climate has NEVER been a constant with global temperatures ranging from a low of around 12 degrees C to a high of around 22 degrees C and CO₂ ranging from under 300 ppm to as high as 7,000 ppm. We are presently at 400 ppm CO₂ with a global temperature of around 14.6 degrees C which is historically low as can be seen on the following chart going back 600 million years. It would seem that a mean temperature of 17 degrees C, as shown here, and a CO₂ level of over 1000 ppm would be more normal then what we have now so why the hysterical political movement to control CO₂?

The next chart is more current going back to the last ice age some 11,000 years ago. This chart is particularly interesting as it shows that there have been 4 cycles of cold and warm going back over 4,000 year. Based on those 4 cycles and considering the difficulty of determining exact dates and temperatures it can be said that over the past four thousand years there have been 4 cycles of about one thousand years duration with an amplitude of maybe 1.5 degrees C. And we are what would appear to be a peak of the forth cycle, indicating that we can expect a downward movement to start in the next hundred years or so. Based only on this observation It should be possible to develop a model that would be valid over this period of time and where we have human records to support these temperature changes.

However, there are also some significant temperature variations with shorter durations as shown on the next Chart. This Chart is of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMO where there appears to be a 60 some year cycle of under one degree C there is also a larger cycle in the pacific known as La Nina and El Niño.

The Pacific variations are not as consistent as those in the Atlantic are,but there is a greater variation as can be seen in the next chart where the La Nina and El Nino events are shown as a multivariate index called the ENSO.

The purpose to showing this four Charts is to establish that there are geological and even decadal variations in climate and none of these have anything to do with mankind or CO₂; therefore any proper theory of Climate must consider these variables as a base to work from. Only when that is done can considerations be given to things like Carbon Dioxide, which probably is only a bit player in Climate.

In the next section we’ll put this all together and show what is really happening with Global Climate and also why the Warmists and their obedient media are so wrong.