The destruction of the US manufacturing base over the past 20 years is now showing up in no real growth.


Jobs & Markets

DJIND-W 10-2-2015

The jobs number came in sharply lower than expected showing that U.S. employers have not been hiring over the last two months and wages as well fell in September. With this turning point 2015.75, we should begin to see declining economic numbers and a closing on the Dow below 15970 today will warn of a retest of the August low.

The weak jobs number is now raising new doubts the economy is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by the end of this year. We are starting to see that higher rates are linked in thinking to stronger economic growth. When the economy declines, rate expectations decline. This is the real view of interest rates and their relation to the marketplace.

If the August low of 15370 gives way, we appear to be headed to that slingshot move where we first move down and trap everyone bearish to provide the fuel to rise again initiated by short-covering.

The markets will be ruled by the Bears for the next 12 months!


2015.75 & Debt – Did 9/30 Mark the Beginning of the End?

Debt-Crisis

It is very interesting that the debt ceiling was kicked down the road to the precise ECM turning point 2015.75 – September 30th, 2015. But Boehner had to resign and this has turned into a religious event not just economics. This turning point from the debt perspective is interesting. The 1985.65 turning point produced the G5 and the Plaza Accord. That was the beginning of this Private Wave. It did not appear to be significant at that moment, but it set in motion the change in trend in the dollar and the shift in capital that resulted in the 1987 Crash concluding that 4.3 wave at 1989.95 culminating in the Tokyo Bubble.

Here at 2015.75 they kicked the debt ceiling can down the road which they assumed would be until December. However, Treasury Secretary Lew says the US will run out of money by November. So it does not appear they will even make it to December. From here on out, this debt crisis will now begin to get really crazy as one domino falls after the other.

Based on the ECM we are in for a rough 12 to 13 months


The ECM Turning Point Sept 30th/Oct 1st – Guns & War?

ECM2015-2020

The unleashing of Russian firepower in Syria in support of the Syrian government came precisely on the day of the Economic Confidence Model. What I have come to learn from my observations of this model with world events, has been that whatever is the major focus, appears to line itself up with this model.

CycleOfWar-2014

Given that we have TWO WAR CYCLE MODELS, civil unrest which leads to revolution, and international war, this has been a very HUGE target for us. It is sort of like the BLOOD MOON stuff insofar as it does not line up so easily. The main convergence of the War Cycle between both models began to turn in 2014. The economic war against Russia imposing sanctions began on March 6th, 2014 (2014.178) when Obama signed Executive Order 13660 that authorizes sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. This was followed the next day with Executive Order 13661 claiming that Russia is undermining the democratic processes. Then on March 20, 2014, Obama issued a new Executive Order, “Blocking Property of Additional Persons Contributing to the Situation in Ukraine” expanding the scope of the two previous orders to the Government of the Russian Federation, including its annexation of Crimea and its use of force in Ukraine claiming this threatens the national security and foreign policy of the United States. Then on April 28th, Obama imposed more sanctions on Russia.

The third round of sanctions of USA on Russia began from October into December 2014 over the turning point. It was on October 3rd, 2014, when Joe Biden said that “It was America’s leadership and the president of the United States insisting, oft times almost having to embarrass Europe to stand up and take economic hits to impose costs” The EU imposed sanction on December 18th, 2014 the European Union banned some investments inn Crimea, halting support for Russian Federation Black Sea oil and gas exploration and stopping European companies from purchasing real estate or companies inn Crimea, or offering tourism services. December 19th,  2014, Obama imposed sanctions on Russian-occupied Crimea by executive order prohibiting exports of US goods and services to the region.

The actual turning point was 2014.8871 or November 20th, 2014. The one event that took place precisely on that day which has begun civil unrest and protest against the Federal government in the Bible Bet states was indeed that very day the Supreme Court Allowed Same-Sex Marriage in South Carolina. That same day is when Obama took Executive Action on Immigration. It was also on November 24th when the Missouri Grand Jury Makes Decision in Michael Brown Shooting of August 9th not to indict Officer Wilson sparking the beginning of civil unrest that Black Lives Matter in a rebuke of corrupt police forces.

So the great concern with this turning point of the ECM 2015.75 marking the precise day when Russia begins actively bombing in Syria to defend its allied government even sending in troops should be a warning sign with a red light that blinks. While Russian bombing has captured the headlines and the press tries to claim Russia is attacking civilians, not mentioning they are rebels trying overthrow the government supported by Obama, is misrepresenting what is taking place.

chinese-transport

There are also reports that now China has entered the game ALSO sending in troops to Syria. Obama is creating a threat of world war for the opposite side is now alignment of Russia and China together in Syria opposed to US policy. The is a direct confrontation all because US policy has been out of its mind trying to topple what it calls dictatorships from Iraq and Libya to now Syria. There is no alternative replacement and this brain-dead policy dreamed up in Washington has no end game objective.

This is turning into a direct confrontation between the three leading powers in the Middle East. For what purpose? All because Obama and crew did not like Putin? But failing to curtail the bankers who were trying to take over Russia to get their hands on all the commodities back in 1999, they created Putin. Whether the government was behind the banking objectives or came in after the fact to protect the bankers amounts to the same thing. This is one reason they have been trying to block the FORECASTER being shown in the United States whereas it has been making headlines and nightly news shows in Europe, who has suffered the economic blows of these sanctions.

The other side of 2015.75 is much more serious than many suspect. This is a concentration of confidence in government which marks the peak and from here on out, this will not be a video game – this is real.

On being Free verses being Controlled


Democracy Is More Than A Right to Vote

Thatcher-Socialism

The first thing government and the majority of academics try to hide is the business cycle for they argue only their policies will eliminate something that is part of nature. We must understand that the origin of all business cycles is humanity. I named one report which has become pretty famous “It’s Just Time” in honor of my friend Margaret Thatcher. When we were talking about politics, she said John Major would lose long before we knew for sure even whom his opponent would be. When I asked her why, Margaret, who instinctively understood cycles, said, “It’s just time.”

Margaret and I became friends. I visited her office in London frequently and she even invited me to her home for her annual Christmas party. She instinctively knew that public attitudes change, and with them, the political winds from among the people. She addressed our conference and stated publicly that politics looks at things in terms of trends, but perhaps they should look at the world in terms of cycles.

thatcher-conference

 Somehow, someway, robbing other people has become the justified political agenda. There can be no equal justice or freedom of thought, religion, or anything as long as we discriminate against others for race, creed, sexual orientation, beliefs, or possessions. One of the Ten Commandments even states that you should not covet thy neighbor’s possessions and clearly condemns this agenda. Yet, forcibly taking what others earn is seen as fair. This is very strange; when an individual does that on their own, it becomes a crime. We let politicians discriminate and rob others of what they have, and somehow it is a badge of honor.

Athena

The democratic rise in Athens during the ancient world was rather distinct and far more important than people assume by just looking at the surface. Their so-called gods were not the same vision we have today as a single God who created the world. Their gods were not creators, but perhaps closer to superheroes or evil manipulators; extensions of human nature. These ancient Gods were depicted in human form, opposed to some wild looking creature. This reflects a concept that began in Greece: the idea that the individual mattered. Prior to Athens, governments were autocratic political systems who held the belief that humankind required a stiff hand to rule them or chaos would emerge. So the concept of democracy was truly revolutionary that the individual could provide for self-rule and that such freedom would not lead to chaos.

Socialism has devolved back into this assumption of the autocratic rule; that the individual is incapable of caring for their self and requires a strong autocratic ruler. We are heading into a political storm; this degradation of the individual has once again resurfaced as it always does.

While the resurrection of authoritative government whereby the real underlying principle is that we are incapable of self-rule, also emerged during the period of the Age of Enlightenment. This hybrid theory became a way to blend authoritative rule with somehow individual rights. This became known as the social contract. In moral and political philosophy, this concept of a social contract (political contract) addressed attempted to established the origin of society with social rights merged with the legitimacy of the authority of the state over the individual.

leviathan

Leviathan was a book written by Thomas Hobbes (1588–1679) and originally published in 1651 during the English Civil War (1642–1651). The Leviathan argues for a social contract expressing that the people need the king with an absolute sovereign rule. Hobbes explained that civil war could only be avoided by strong undivided government. Of course, this same theory has been behind the idea of a one world government that was used to force upon the European people Brussels, which once again is proving to be the destruction of any democratic process since not one member of the Trioka stands for any election whatsoever. The Social Contract (Du contrat social ou Principes du droit politique) is also the short title of a 1762 book by Jean-Jacques Rousseau on this topic.

The problem with the social contract concept has been that it is never capable of restraining the desire for more and more power. Hence, the very idea of socialism become corrupted and unattainable. There appears to be no possible way society’s rights can be maintained with any position of an authoritative rule.

invisible-hand

A true concept of democracy is when people are competent of self-rule. Humankind is not helpless and does not need to devolve into chaos that requires a dictatorial style government for their own good. True democracy is without career politicians and is based on human cooperation. A Republic, which contains career politicians, always devolves into an oligarchy and ultimately dictatorial authoritarian rule while pretending to support the moral philosophy of the social contract. The former emerges from the cooperation of humankind (Invisible Hand) while the latter is based upon punishment. The first inspires freedom while the second suppresses human nature.

It appears that only a Direct Democracy will stand any chance of breaking this cycle between society and authoritative rule. What self-corrupts is always a Republic where we elected pretend representatives. They only become career politicians. In the USA, we recognized the danger with FDR and then made it that no one could be president for more than two terms. The same should have applied to Congress.

We need annual citizen panels to oversee the bureaucrats and that nothing can be enacted without first testing to see if it is constitutional. We should adopt Ben Franklin’s proposal for judges, that they ONLY be nominated by the legal profession and never by politicians. The terms should never be for life and the minimum age should be 50 with the maximum 65 so that they have life experience. No single judge should ever rule in any case, but there should be rotating panels of three judges with one being appointed for just one case and return to private practice. Anyone with any connection to the case MUST recuse himself or suffer life imprisonment.

The citizen panels must be with people who are qualified in each field. In finance, only someone with experience would sit on a panel for one year and never again serve. This would be akin to serving in the army for your country.

No legislation should ever be allowed to be merged. Each must be voted upon by the people directly and each must stand alone. The entire Social Security Act was 16 pages. Obamacare stood 7 feet tall 33000 pages and we still do not know everything lurking in there. This is the essence of corruption. Nobody can argue this was good legislation unless they read the entire thing, which nobody has.

So what political system might work at least for a while until its crumbles into corruption? It appears the last thing we can try is Direct Democracy and trust the people for once. It’s an old idea that may need to be reexamined.

Candidate Donald Trump Releases Tax Reform Plan.. (W/ Video)…


Trump’s Tax plan will work!

One day after the Blood Moon we will see a 12 month slide in the markets


The ECM Turning Point 2015.75 – The Start of a Trend is Now

ECM-Wave-2011-2020

I was in Barcelona and was asked by many did I think the pro-independence parties in Spain’s Catalonia region would actually win. I told them it was inevitable for this is the global trend in motion. The vote for Catalonia is in – the separatists have won an absolute majority in regional elections. It looks as though the separatist alliance and a smaller party won 72 seats in the 135-seat regional parliament. They have declared that this will now allow them to declare independence from Spain unilaterally within 18 months.

The Spanish central government in Madrid has pledged to block any unilateral independence moves in court. Why? Politicians are no different than kings, dictators, or emperors. This is not about what the people want, it is all about maintaining power.

This vote is just the BEGINNING of the separatist movement around the world. Centralized government is dying. Society has always swung back and forth between centralized government and regional government. Once a centralized government grabs power, it will always expand until it consumes all power.

This is why I say that TAXES ARE NO LONGER NECESSARY. Money is no longer a commodity and the value of any currency depends entirely upon faith. Even gold has no value unless you believe someone else will accept it from you at some mutual agreed value. This is also why money cannot be a store of value for it requires ending the business cycle and life itself.

Why do we pay federal taxes? What is it really providing for the people? Taxes are necessary locally where governments cannot create money. Yet where government creates the money no longer tied to anything tangible but really the collective capacity of the nation (GDP), then there is also no need to tax nor is there a need to borrow constantly with no intention of paying anything back. Now we have interest rates at near zero and governments need rates at virtually zero or the cost of government will explode. So it is them against the people always. Retired cannot live off of their savings and pensions are going broke all because government is the biggest debtor and it stupidly assumes it can raise or lower interest rates to steer the economy when they themselves are the biggest debtor upon which their own tools have no influence on fiscal responsibility. We live is a world that has totally gone mad and nobody will sit down and just look at how this structure is functioning.

The separatist movement is the breaking up of federal governments and the return of power back to regional governments. This is being fueled by taxes and the diminishing trend in employment and lowering of the living standards.

The Catalonia vote comes right on target with the Economic Confidence Model. This turning point is PROFOUND, for it is not the crash in stock markets, commodities, or the private sector. This is the BEGINNING of the trend which will see the fall of governments and the rise in demands for political change EVERYWHERE.

ECM2015-2020

November 28th, 2018 will be the major target moving forward for political chaos. On the last two important wave formations, 1998.55 and 2007.15, this Pi turning point produced to the day the 911 attack and the day Greece asked for IMF help starting the sovereign debt crisis. So 2015.75 is the BEGINNING, and not the end of a new trend that will be very profound for our political future.

ECM-1998-2002

ECM Greece

It’s Not Your Money


corbyn Jeremy

Jeremy Corbyn, the new head of the British Labour Party, is really a Communist. He is not championing a minimum wage, but a MAXIMUM WAGE. He is advocating that no individual should be allowed to earn more than whatever he feels is appropriate. These people view one simple fact: whatever money you earn is not yours, it belongs to the state. I was in Canada and there was some socialist woman on TV being interviewed and she said that openly. It is not your money, it belongs to the state. They merely decide how much you are allowed to keep. I was dumbfounded she actually said that in public whereas I hear that all the time behind closed doors. Nothing belongs to you is their actual true belief.

These Marxists want to suppress freedom and cannot see that we are all different and have a God given right to pursue our own dreams. Some people want to produce while others do not. All these people do is drool over what other people have and demand they have been cheated because they are entitled to the same.capitalism-vs-socialism

What Corbyn cannot understand is that this is no different from robbery. If you walk down the street and a man points a gun at you, demands your watch, all your cash, and justifies it by saying that he has nothing you have everything, then what is the difference between that and writing a law to accomplish the same thing? Where can we go to be free of people who just want to rob whatever we have because they are lazy or incompetent to ever have an original thought? This may be the final end of the British Empire. After all, it is getting close to 443.76 years from Elizabeth I (51.6 * 8.6). A very precarious event that may indeed signal the shift from the West is underway to China.

If You Cannot Tell the Truth, Hide the Truth


draghi-lagarde

The motto of the ECB is plain and simple: why reform when we still have some power? Governments will fight until the last drop of blood is spilled; they assume it will be your blood, not theirs. We will see the opposite of transparency unfold along with a rush to eliminate cash. This will force Europeans into electronic money for that is the solution to prevent bank runs. The head economist of the Deutsche Bundesbank warned that the ECB cannot afford to tell the people the truth about banking for it may lead to bank runs.

The banking crisis in Europe is huge because bank reserves are a mixture of sovereign debt from each member state. The only way to prevent this potential banking failure crisis is to withhold the results of bank stress tests from the public. The ECB is most likely going to follow this advice to prevent the public from knowing which banks are in the worst shape. If you do not know whom to trust, human nature will distrust everyone.

Deutsche Bank – the New Lehman Brothers?


Deustche Bank

The rumor mill has been nonstop. The crushing blow to Europe will be the failure of Germany’s biggest bank: Deutsche Bank. Just about every circle is quietly discussing how the bank is facing bankruptcy. The rumors have flown since March when Deutsche Bank failed the U.S. regulatory stress test, which was followed by the resignation of its head in June. A collapse of the Deutsche Bank is profound and very likely to impact Europe to the point that everyone behind the curtain is now calling for a new Lehman moment. Sources tied with the Fed’s decision not to raise rates fear that they will be seen as the cause of its failure. Germany clearly faces a major shock; if this combines with Volkswagen for the turning point next week, well, here we go again.

The potential financial chaos to the other side of 2015.75 is just mind numbing. Since Germany has been regarded as the primary driving force holding the euro and Europe together, one can only close their eyes to vision what comes in the aftermath. So pay attention here. These are critical indications within the core economy of Europe. We are not talking about Greece here. The structure of the euro undermined the entire banking system of Europe far more profoundly than in the United States, where reserves are only in U.S. federal debt, not the debt of all member 50 states. This is the major difference between European banking and U.S. banking.


Will Gold Complete the September Rally?


GCNYNF-W 9-24-2015

Gold’s rally into the target weeks for the ECM appear to be linked to the potential crisis in European banking. This has nothing to do with the dollar, fiat, inflation, or whatever. The only reason gold rises is the hedge against real crisis and uncertainty.

GCFOR-W 9-24-2015

Gold may not be sustainable. We really need to see a weekly closing above 1188 to think that there is some sustainability short-term. We need that signal to reach the technical resistance in the mid-1200 level. We have a crisis in confidence and a crisis in German banking during the ECM target on Sept. 30/Oct. 1, which will shake the tree of public confidence on a major global level.