Tag Archives: Destructive interference

Apr 19 2020

China – Sanctions & War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War

Re-Posted Apr 19, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; Now Lindsey Grahm is calling for sanction against China. This is starting to seem like the war drums are beating. What do you think?

WH

ANSWER: I am thoroughly disgusted with this entire pandemic nonsense. There is no way there is any evidence whatsoever that convinces me that this was some plot on the part of China. This insane lockdown was by no means contrived by China. The blame for that belongs on the shoulders of Bill Gates and his control of all the health organizations. The fact that Sweden did not lockdown and shows that their experience with this virus is no different than countries that locked down.

It gives me no pleasure to gloat about our forecasts being correct. Perhaps deep inside I had hoped that if I exposed the cycle, we would have some common sense to respect this and exercise restraint. In that respect, I am a fool to have any faith that we perhaps could learn from the cycle and act accordingly. I do not know what more I can do. I am in the middle. I see the authoritarian desires of the left who want to suppress all of us and the extreme authoritarian right which far too often believe confrontation and war as an answer.

There should be a REAL investigation of the call for this lockdown rather than blaming China. To me, this is like going after the gun manufacturer rather than the guy you robbed the store and kill people. Even if China intentionally leaked this virus, it was NOT even as lethal as the flu. This to me is just total BS. If it was some biological weapon, that is different. There is ZERO evidence of that. All the evidence so far shows that if it was a leak, it was certainly not intentional. That does not warrant sanctions.

Once you impose sanctions, you create a cold war. Look at Russia. Nixon opened China to divide and conquer. Are we really that stupid to close China and encourage them to join Russia in a cold war that will further destroy the world economy and most likely lead to real war? Unfortunately, 2020 was the year for a sharp rise in volatility so this is on target. This cycle should peak out by 2027.

Apr 19 2020

TED Talks


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media

Re-Posted Apr 18, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty you should do a TED talk. I understand you are swamped with real clients and politicians. But a TED talk for us peons would be appropriate. How about it?

JA

ANSWER: I would agree to do another brief one. But I am not sure you can do any sort of a gathering right now. Maybe here in Florida where we are not locked-down. The previous one I did was in Vermont. Certainly, I cannot fly there right now. Otherwise, I guess it would have to be a virtual event I suppose. Not sure they do that.

Apr 13 2020

Doctor From NY City Offers His Observations


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease

Re-Posted Apr 13, 2020 by Martin Armstrong
Apr 13 2020

Forecasting Technical v Fundamental


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts

Re-Posted Apr 13, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:  Hi AE….I have a thought/question/idea that is an observation, not a criticism, & begs a response.
Have long noted AE’s reliance on technical analysis, for your forecasts, to the almost total exclusion of broader fundamentals, like out-of-control corruption. From day one, this has been a revelation to me, but must concede that your success in forecasting speaks for itself.
Meanwhile, over a lifetime, I’ve also observed the US gov’t dep’ts morph from “normal” corruption, to outright corruption, in every possible way, regardless of which alphabet dep’t you can name–CIA, FBI, FDA, FCC, OSHA, health care, justice (as you well know), education (indoctrination), plus all MSM. Amazing, Trump is still standing.
The system is so rotten, it cannot much longer endure. It has come down to the honest “little people”, in flyover country VS the matrix of entrenched financial/political/globalist parasites.
So, my question…your technicals work well in economics in a “normal” environment, but somewhere, deep in my psyche, a voice insists that at some point, all this blatant deceit, & even hatred is going to overwhelm all the charts & graphs, as in almost no markets at all, for a while.
There must be 100’s, if not 1000’s of your readers with similar thoughts.

HS

ANSWER: Trying to forecast based upon fundamentals is just opinion. That is not reliable for we all have good days and bad days. The trend is proven by the analysis. For example, Socrates projected that unemployment would rise faster than it ever has in history. That is not a forecast any person could have made BEFORE this virus even appeared.

I have told the story at conferences. We had a client, the Universal Bank of Lebanon, back in the 1980s. They discovered a ledger in the basement where someone had recorded the value of the Lebanese pound going back into the 1800s. They asked if we could create a model. They sent someone to the states with a copy of the ledger. I input the data into the computer and out came with a forecast that their country would fall apart in eight days. I thought the computer was wrong. When I told them the result and apologized, they simply asked me which currency would be best. The war started in eight days.

The very same thing took place concerning the Iran-Iraq War. We had a client who was very well connected and owned a shipping business. He called and asked me what gold would do the next day. He informed me that Iran was going to begin attacking shipping in the Gulf. I asked, “Are you telling me a war is going to begin tomorrow?” He said yes.

With time I began to understand that the computer was monitoring the capital flows. It would project the trend based upon the movements it was picking up. As a result, it knew nothing about who was moving the money or why – just that the capital was moving. I came to comprehend that if you were going to start a war, you would move your money appropriately in advance. I delivered the forecast that Russia was about to collapse in 1998 which led to the Long-Term Capital Management collapse. The computer saw $100 billion going into Russia, but $150 billion fleeing.

I have learned over the years that the fundamentals mean nothing. Yes, there have been deficits and people keep calling for the crash of the dollar. Yes, there has been rising corruption. The question is when will those fundamentals finally mean something? That is where the computer comes in. No opinions – just the trend. It boils down to public confidence. You can see it with this virus scare. The vast majority believe what is being said. They are fools who rush in and just follow people like Gates. He counts on such foolish ignorance.

Apr 10 2020

The Future & the Destruction of Capital Formation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Apr 9, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:  Hi Martin – I have followed your blog for a long-time now. I enjoy reading a different viewpoint and somebody pointing out problems that don’t have a motive to take advantage of the “problems”. I find it deeply troubling that the US does not have a valid large news outlet anymore – no matter what side you are on – all are deeply motivated by ulterior motives. Anyways – my question is regarding the Fed’s unlimited supply of stimulus and its impact? I know the Fed is more capable than Europe which is limited by the EU set-up but trillions are being thrown around every other week and I don’t see anybody questioning the “other side” of this money creation. Are we printing money for inflation – are we just creating money so the stock market can keep paying dividends and push the impact out 10 years again? I don’t understand how we can just keep throwing out trillion after trillion?

EH

ANSWER: At this point, this not about stimulating the economy, helping the stock market, or even creating inflation. This is about trying to save the economy with the complete destruction of our capital formation. I have been deeply concerned about what is coming in 2021-2022. This is an array of the Euro. We have 2021 as a Panic Cycle Year no less. This array was published back in 2017.

The Fed is trying to save the economy while people like Gates and Fauci are trying to destroy it while claiming they care about people which they do not. The massive economic destruction that has unleashed upon our society I am sad to say will not be recovered any time soon. They are unleashing civil unrest that will explode. You cannot imprison the population in this manner for a virus with a death rate of 10% of that as the annual flu. This has been a political coup and is intent upon subjecting us to the theories that have been behind this Climate Change movement.

The value of assets is just a paper chase. They have destroyed Capital Formation so trying to print trillions to offset the destruction of trillions is not inflationary. The inflation will come with people losing confidence in governments. Already we are witnessing a food panic in China. People are running out and hoarding food even though the virus has subsided. The confidence in governments is collapsing. This will lead to civil unrest, authoritarianism, and ultimately war. The War Cycle is alive and well.

Apr 9 2020

The Cabal is Oppressing Climate Dissent & COVID-19 Dissent


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Apr 9, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
I am a regular reader of your blog from Poland and I highly value your opinions that spring from exceptional intelligence and experience. I’d like to contribute a few words to the discussion on the ideas of the “green movement”. When I listen to some of those people I have the impression that they consider humanity as some kind of disease that has befallen our planet, and if we all died out the planet would breathe a sigh of relief and life would thrive undisturbed for countless of billions of years. Yet it doesn’t seem it would. According to scientists, the Earth will probably become unsupportive for life within the next billion years because of increased solar radiation. Interestingly, the gradual process of atrophy of life will begin much sooner due to a dearth of carbon dioxide! If life on our planet can somehow be protected and prolonged, or perhaps spread across the Universe, it can only be done by some intelligent beings with great technological capabilities. If we fail, then perhaps some other intelligent creatures will evolve, but there is no guarantee of that as intelligence seems to be a unique feature that does not appear all that often among living organisms.
Therefore, I believe that far from being a disease, we are the planet’s hope!
Best wishes,
RR

ANSWER: Their agenda is really Marxism. They are using the environment to pitch their economic agenda. Their push is to seize the industry and control it. This agenda is really quite serious. They exaggerate everything and refuse to address any criticism. They have indoctrinated the education system. In Canada, they were actually teaching kids that because of global warming, Russia would be able to invade Canada. They refuse to even consider that solar energy fluctuates. They act as if the planet has warmed from the Little Ice Age solely because of CO2. They will not allow anyone to challenge them and now they have Wikipedia removing dissent. When any movement must try to shut down dissent, it ceases to be a basic movement for the people and becomes a dictatorial movement that destroys human rights. They act like they never heard of solar panels.

Now we see the very same power trying to suppress any medical comment that COVID-19 is now justified for this level of hysteria.

Apr 9 2020

Influence by a Cabal of Evil People Bring Us to Where We are Now!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Conspiracy

Re-Posted Apr 9, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
I don’t mean this against you specifically, but your latest post reminded me of It. I am in my 40s now. Ever since 9/11 I have been hearing older people say, ‘I’m just glad I’m not 18 today.’ Everyone knew this was coming. All the old people in America could have been spending the last 20 years of abundant free time trying to make the future -better- for all the young people coming up behind them. Instead, they were on cruises, playing golf, bingo, going to Florida, getting early-bird dinners, etc. And then they just sit there and say, ‘Boy your lives are going to be terrible.’ Well, thanks.
– JM

 

REPLY: You are absolutely right, but the average person also does not know where to start. The system is so corrupt at every level it does feel like resistance is futile. When I was young, I tried to make a difference. I quickly learned that trying to work from within government was indeed futile. You have people who try so hard to smear me by saying I’m a fraud, but why? It is because they also know that we have probably the largest institutional base of anyone. They fear, as always, I am too influential. But the truth is we are not influential enough to prevent this crash and burn.

My personal goal was to create Socrates in the hope that people will look at this and understand when it is time to rebuild, let’s do it the right way. I think Socrates has done an outstanding job. I have not personally been able to articulate its forecasts because I am just human. It has projected this crash, and the dramatic rise in unemployment that I fundamentally could not rationalize based on history. It projected years in advance that this 8.6-year wave would be a commodity boom, built upon shortages and NOT demand. That much I have been able to articulate. My job is to reveal its forecasts. As I have said, I was at a loss to comprehend how unemployment could possibly rise so fast. That has NEVER taken place even in times of war, no less the Great Depression.

We can see that unemployment even during the Great Depression took three years to reach the 25% level. Even by 1930, unemployment had risen from the 3% level to about 8.5% in a year. Socrates forecast something that NEVER took place in history. That to me was very impressive.

They may hate me and claim I have too much influence, but that is always when they are going against the trend. This a cabal, a coordinated attack using so many fronts it is just beyond contemplation. It has been well organized. The WHO, which is part of this conspiracy, is now stating the world must remain locked down.

The untold story is of the farm workers who pick crops in Europe migrate from Poland south. This lockdown is causing a serious shortage in food which will lead to starvation and a real rise in disease, which our computer is projecting in 2022. This conspiracy to further political change is threatening civilization, national security, and inviting war.

Apr 8 2020

Martin Armstrong Answers Questions — Q&A 4-7-2020


Blog/Q&A

Posted Apr 7, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty, you always said that gold and the dollar would rise during the monetary crisis cycle. I must admit, the fundamentals always seem to unfold to support your forecast. The article on the dollar shortage is really enlightening. The gold bugs hate you because you do not support their hatred for the dollar. You have taught me to see the world from a real hedge fund manager’s eyes. So do you see this dollar crisis taking down the IMF?

Thank you

DF

QUESTION #2: Martin, Why do you seem so surprised about the chaos Soros and Gates are creating? Didn’t your (ECM) model predict it? Some events or Some person(s) needed to be the catalyst. Change is inevitable.

Resistance is futile.

JC

QUESTION #3: What do you think of Icke saying there is no virus?

HS

COMMENT #4: Even if Dow briefly touchs 28K I am done for the year:) 35% up in dollar terms , who cares what happens next:)) On a different note if the dollar shortage is as large as you have been writing I think Fed has done a decent job and kept DXY at 100 (so far) .

SM

ANSWER: There is a serious risk that like the ECB, the IMF is stepping into something they have no clue what is going on. The total outstanding private corporate debt from emerging markets is more than $2 trillion in size and denominated in US dollars. However, the total market is $15 trillion. This is astonishing and the goldbugs harp on the dollar debt and hyperinflation and the dollar must turn to dust. They remain clueless that ONLY a rise in the dollar will blow-up the world economy unleashing massive sovereign debt defaults.

Yes, the ECM has been projecting this would be a commodity wave of inflation, but I have stressed many times, this is not the traditional boom inflation. It is inflation on the back of a SHORTAGE, not speculative demand.

I appreciate the line from the Borg, “Resistance is Futile.” I think if we do not resist, I hate to see the world we leave behind. As I have also said many times, I thank God I am not 18 years old. The youth will never know the freedoms of the prior generations.

As far as claims there is no virus, sorry I do not buy that. My cousin is a nurse who has been attending to these people. She has been infected and was nowhere near 5G. The virus exists. We have many doctors who are readers and they share information. They are not the propaganda machine.

Apr 6 2020

Do Tall Buildings Signal a Recession or Depression?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Apr 6, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Madison Square Garden was constructed in New York City and was opened on September 29, 1891. The 304-foot (92.66 m) building had been completed a year earlier and was the second-tallest in New York City, just in time for the Panic of 1893. It was named after James Madison, the fourth president of the United States. The first garden, leased to P. T. Barnum, had no roof and was inconvenient to use during winter.

It was demolished after 11 years and a new Madison Square Garden was designed by noted architect Stanford White. It was constructed by a syndicate which included J. P. Morgan, Andrew Carnegie, P. T. Barnum, Darius Mills, James Stillman, and W. W. Astor. The third version began construction in 1925 after it was demolished and that lasted until 1968. The fourth version began construction in 1968 and was completed in 1969. That too was timed with the Panic of 1968.

The Flatiron Building marked the Panic of 1903. This was a triangular 22-story building that became the landmark building at the time. Construction was completed in 1902, and it was one of the tallest buildings in the city at 20 floors high. For the Panic of 1907, it was the Singer Tower on Broadway. With 47 stories, it was the tallest building in the world from 1908-1909.

There is the well-known story of how the Empire State Building, which was 102 stories, became the symbol of the Great Depression in the 1930s. The design for the Empire State Building was changed fifteen times to make it the world’s tallest building as a symbol of hope during the Great Depression. Construction began on March 17, 1930, and the building opened thirteen and a half months afterward on May 1, 1931. Despite the publicity surrounding the building’s construction, its owners failed to make a profit until the early 1950s.

As you can see from the chart above, after the 45% correction in the Dow, the market began to bounce. The project of the Empire State Building went ahead. Many assumed that the market was recovering and new highs would come again. Little did they know that most of Europe, South America, and Asia permanently defaulted on their debts in 1931.

The original World Trade Center destroyed in 2001 was a large complex of seven buildings in the Financial District of Lower Manhattan. It opened on April 4, 1973. This became the symbol of the 1974 Crash and the beginning of Stagflation. Likewise, the Aon Center in Los Angeles opened in 1973 which also marked a peak in the economy.

The 1987 Crash was marked by One Liberty Place in Philadelphia, and then the SEC later destroyed Drexel Burnham with Michael Milkin because of their competition with New York City. The SEC never has destroyed any firm in New York City as they have done in Philadelphia and Chicago.

Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur became the symbol of the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis and the 1998 Crash due to Long-Term Capital Management. That was the mass liquidity crisis from the emerging market collapsed that began in Russia.

In New York City, construction began on April 27, 2006, of the new One World Trade Center just in time for the Panic of 2007. It did not open until November 3, 2014.

The  Burj Khalifa, known as the Burj Dubai, also became the symbol of the 2007-2009 crash.

Like the wise tale that markets go up with women’s skirts and fall when then drop back to their ankles (i.e. Roaring 20s), the competition to create skyscrapers and always build the biggest in the world has also been an interesting correlation to major crashes in the world economy. The Jeddah Tower(Arabic: برج جدة‎), also known as the Mile-High Tower, was to begin construction in 2008. It was put on hold. This promised to be the tallest building in the entire world. It appears that plans for such buildings coincide with the boom days. All work was paused with the tower about one-third completed due to labor issues with a contractor following the 2017–19 Saudi Arabian purge. This too seems to be the symbol of this correction and the crisis in the Middle East.

Categories: Understanding Cycles
Apr 4 2020

Iran & War


Armstrong Ecomonic Blog/Energy

Re-Posted Apr 4, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, your forecast for Iran back in 2012 has been correct. It picked 2016 which in January the International economic sanctions on Iran were lifted after UN said it was satisfied with progress on fulfilling the nuclear agreement. President Rouhani then embarked on the first European state visit of an Iranian president for 16 years. But that same month is when the serious rift in relations took place after Saudi Arabia executed a leading Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr. During May 2017,  Hassan Rouhani won re-election as president.= and by June that is when there was a co-ordinated attack on parliament and the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini. That is when the Islamic State group claimed responsibility. That sparked major protests in December 2017 over economic grievances. The next year in 2018, President Trump announced the US withdrawal from the 2015 international deal on Iran’s nuclear programme. Iran in turn warned that it will begin increasing its uranium enrichment capacity if the deal collapses as a result of the US move.

I have followed your report and it has been truly remarkable for someone that is covering the entire world. My question is now, your array showed the 2016 turning point which was amazing, but it also showed 2020. There are increasing tensions once again. Do you have an update on this forecast?

Thank you

ABSR

ANSWER: There is a rising tide in Iran toward a confrontation. In February 2020, the hardliners scored big wins in parliamentary elections, but this was with a record low turnout of only 42.6% while any moderate would-be candidates were barred from running for not meeting strict eligibility criteria.

Back in 2013, the State Department blew everyone away after admitting that they officially and intentionally deleted several minutes of video footage from a 2013 press briefing to mislead the press over the Iranian nuclear deal under the Obama Administration. Then in 2o16, Iran also tried to sell oil in euros in a futile attempt to end oil’s link to the dollar. They clearly failed to understand this was not a SERIOUS blow to the USA, but in fact, they took on the currency risk of the euro and lost.

It appears that 2020 is the low for oil and we should see tension rise sharply with Iran which will help oil into 2024.