Will There be Coordinated Central Bank Action This Week?


The Coronavirus has been exploited by the press to unbelievable levels. Even hop on a domestic flight in the USA and the majority of people are wearing masks. Fed is being pressured to do a coordinated rate cut this week. We should see rate cuts in China and Hong Kong where the economy has been complete decimated. Our target weeks for action by central banks will be this coming week of March 2nd and March 23rd. Based on information and belief, the press has been told to knock this off. They are creating a global panic without justification just as they created the Spanish American War.

Sunday Talks: HHS Secretary Azar -vs- Chris Wallace….


The media is initiating panic about the Coronavirus in 2020 the same way the media attempted to manufacture panic about an upcoming U.S. recession in 2019.

Everything about Coronavirus is hyped with purpose. The CDC official who lit the fuse to create the panic was Dr. Nancy Messonnier who read a script handed to her by resistance operatives inside government.  Dr. Messonnier is Rod Rosenstein’s sister.

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar appears on Fox News to discuss Coronavirus (COVID-19) while a gleeful Chris Wallace excitedly questions Azar about “millions of people hoarding food”, and  how the virus will eliminate all life on planet Earth by Tuesday.

Politics & the Great Awakening


QUESTION: Marty; I understand you do not support either side in politics, but what happens if the Democrats split?

KW

ANSWER: The Republicans were opposed to Trump when he was elected. You had people like John McCain who refused to even allow him to speak at his funeral. Once upon a time, the Republicans and Democrats worked together after elections. Today, the hatred in politics is really beyond all belief.

Trump simply represented a threat to their very existence. But Trump wrongly listened to the Washington elite and brought in people who were the very problem like Bolton. Trump was naive from the standpoint that he was not one of the oligarchs who funded government to further his business. That was the bankers, press, and military establishment. All three have been his enemies ever since. They are the primary donors who have filled their troughs regularly. Trump was just a lowly real estate guy that really did not have direct influence in that field – it was mostly state and local.

The split in the Democrats is indicative of the philosophy shift. They have pandered to the socialist agenda assuming these people are stupid and would never hold them to the promises they have made. This is coming back to haunt them as Bernie leads the pack.

Yes, Biden won South Carolina. But he has all the charisma of watching grass grow. The Democrats have spent $1 billion for the primaries which the press loves, but Bloomberg is $500 million of that. Hillary tried to buy the White House, and Bloomberg will fail. He is probably the most dangerous person ever to run for President in either party.

The Democrats will split over this philosophy for you have the core of the Party will rig the game against Bernie. Do we see the rise in violence against the corruption of the Democratic Party or against Trump? It is true that the there is an element of the Democrats who have been brainwashed to hate Trump and I really do not see what he has done which has been such a threat. Bloomberg suspended the Constitution with his stop-and-frisk that any rational period should have known was illegal. Then Bloomberg outlawed 2 liter bottles of soda, and removed term limits because he refused to leave office. The decisions behind all three of these moves gives me serious pause about this guy. Neither Trump nor anyone else in either party has acted so arbitrarily.

The breakup of the Democrats is not something that becomes a win simply for Republicans. We are looking at a clash of philosophies and if Bernie does not win the nomination, this may be more of the spark to violence than the hatred against Trump.

I have said many times, my concern is what comes AFTER Trump. I do not see someone stepping up from the private sector with sound mind. Bloomberg is a demagogue who is highly dangerous. I think the split of the Democrats will cause an unstable political base that will also infect the Republicans.

The older generation is losing its grip. The Clintons will be gone for 2024. The entire playing field will start to change. From there into 2032 we should witness the disintegration of government for all the socialistic programs will become unsustainable. What happens then when the people who counted on those promises realize it is all a lie? Will this be the political Great Awakening

Sunday Talks: Marco Rubio Discusses The Danger of China Against Backdrop of Coronavirus…


CTH is more confident than ever about POTUS having a comprehensive understanding of the bigger picture around COVID-19 and China’s Coronavirus outbreak.  In this interview Senator Marco Rubio discusses the risks that China now represents on a myriad of levels.

The Coronavirus issue hits on three main points of policy outlined by President Trump since his initial announcement of candidacy in 2015:  (1) The need for secure borders and strong immigration controls. (2) The need to stop reliance on Chinese manufacturing; and (3) The need for the U.S. to have independent control over key sectors of manufacturing; including healthcare products and pharmaceuticals, as a matter of national security.

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Stay big picture. Think about what you know of the aggressive Communist and strategic disposition of China. In addition to the risks within technology development (well discussed), allowing China to have a heavy influence over critical healthcare supply chains is too dangerous.

October 2019:

November 2019:

December 2019:

January 2020:

President Donald J. Trump participates in a signing ceremony of an agreement between the United States and China with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He with Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2020, in the East Room of the White House. Vice President Mike Pence attends.

(link)

U.S. President Trump Expands Coronavirus Entry Restrictions – Sec 212(f) Travel Entry Ban From Iran….


On January 31st President Trump initiated an entry ban against non-U.S. persons traveling from China. Today President Trump is expanding the restrictions to include Iran.

WHITE HOUSE – On January 31, 2020, I issued Proclamation 9984 (Suspension of Entry as Immigrants and Nonimmigrants of Persons Who Pose a Risk of Transmitting 2019 Novel Coronavirus and Other Appropriate Measures To Address This Risk). I found that the potential for widespread transmission of a novel (new) coronavirus (which has since been renamed “SARS-CoV-2” and causes the disease COVID-19) (“SARS-CoV-2” or “the virus”) by infected individuals seeking to enter the United States threatens the security of our transportation system and infrastructure and the national security.

Because the outbreak of the virus was (and is) centered in the People’s Republic of China, I suspended and limited the entry of all aliens who were physically present within the People’s Republic of China, excluding the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States, subject to certain exceptions.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), a component of the Department of Health and Human Services, has determined that the virus presents a serious public health threat and continues to take steps to prevent its spread. But CDC, along with State and local health departments, has limited resources, and the public health system could be overwhelmed if sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus occurred in the United States. Sustained human-to-human transmission has the potential to have cascading public health, economic, national security, and societal consequences.

CDC has determined that the Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran) is experiencing sustained person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2. As of February 28, 2020, Iran had 388 cases of COVID-19, a significant increase from prior days.

In response to that increase, on February 28, 2020, CDC raised its infectious disease alert to level 3, its highest level, which recommends that travelers avoid all nonessential travel to Iran. According to the World Health Organization, as of February 28, 2020, 97 COVID-19 cases have been exported from Iran to 11 other countries.

Iran is not a trustworthy state actor, as it has repeatedly demonstrated through its history of engaging in malign activity, and confirmed most recently by its repeated denials of responsibility for shooting down an international airliner. The United States Government is therefore unable to rely on official information disseminated by Iran, undermining the effective evaluation and monitoring of travelers continuing to arrive from that country.

The potential for undetected transmission of the virus by infected individuals seeking to enter the United States from Iran threatens the security of our transportation system and infrastructure and the national security. Given the importance of protecting persons within the United States from the threat of this harmful communicable disease, I have determined that it is in the interests of the United States to take action to restrict and suspend the entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within Iran during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.

NOW, THEREFORE, I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, hereby find that the unrestricted entry into the United States of persons described in section 1 of this proclamation would, except as provided for in section 2 of this proclamation, be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and that their entry should be subject to certain restrictions, limitations, and exceptions. I therefore hereby proclaim the following:

Section 1. Suspension and Limitation on Entry. The entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Islamic Republic of Iran during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States is hereby suspended and limited subject to section 2 of this proclamation.

Sec. 2. Scope of Suspension and Limitation on Entry.

(a) Section 1 of this proclamation shall not apply to:

(i) any lawful permanent resident of the United States;

(ii) any alien who is the spouse of a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident;

(iii) any alien who is the parent or legal guardian of a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident, provided that the U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident is unmarried and under the age of 21;

(iv) any alien who is the sibling of a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident, provided that both are unmarried and under the age of 21;

(v) any alien who is the child, foster child, or ward of a U.S. citizen or lawful permanent resident, or who is a prospective adoptee seeking to enter the United States pursuant to the IR-4 or IH-4 visa classifications;

(vi) any alien traveling at the invitation of the United States Government for a purpose related to containment or mitigation of the virus;

(vii) any alien traveling as a nonimmigrant pursuant to a C-1, D, or C-1/D nonimmigrant visa as a crewmember or any alien otherwise traveling to the United States as air or sea crew;

(viii) any alien

(A) seeking entry into or transiting the United States pursuant to one of the following visas: A-1, A-2, C-2, C-3 (as a foreign government official or immediate family member of an official), E-1 (as an employee of TECRO or TECO or the employee’s immediate family members), G-1, G-2, G-3, G-4, NATO-1 through NATO-4, or NATO-6 (or seeking to enter as a nonimmigrant in one of those NATO categories); or

(B) whose travel falls within the scope of section 11 of the United Nations Headquarters Agreement;

(ix) any alien whose entry would not pose a significant risk of introducing, transmitting, or spreading the virus, as determined by the Secretary of Health and Human Services, through the CDC Director or his designee;

(x) any alien whose entry would further important United States law enforcement objectives, as determined by the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Homeland Security, or their respective designees, based on a recommendation of the Attorney General or his designee;

(xi) any alien whose entry would be in the national interest, as determined by the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Homeland Security, or their designees; or

(xii) members of the U.S. Armed Forces and spouses and children of members of the U.S. Armed Forces.

(b) Nothing in this proclamation shall be construed to affect any individual’s eligibility for asylum, withholding of removal, or protection under the regulations issued pursuant to the legislation implementing the Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, consistent with the laws and regulations of the United States.

Sec. 3. Implementation and Enforcement. (a) The Secretary of State shall implement this proclamation as it applies to visas pursuant to such procedures as the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, may establish. The Secretary of Homeland Security shall implement this proclamation as it applies to the entry of aliens pursuant to such procedures as the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, may establish.

(b) Consistent with applicable law, the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Transportation, and the Secretary of Homeland Security shall ensure that any alien subject to this proclamation does not board an aircraft traveling to the United States.

(c) The Secretary of Homeland Security may establish standards and procedures to ensure the application of this proclamation at and between all United States ports of entry.

(d) An alien who circumvents the application of this proclamation through fraud, willful misrepresentation of a material fact, or illegal entry shall be a priority for removal by the Department of Homeland Security.

Sec. 4. Amendments to Proclamation 9984. Proclamation 9984 is amended as follows:

(a) Section 2(a)(viii) of Proclamation 9984 is amended to read as follows: “(viii) any alien (A) seeking entry into or transiting the United States pursuant to one of the following visas: A-1, A-2, C-2, C-3 (as a foreign government official or immediate family member of an official), E-1 (as an employee of TECRO or TECO or the employee’s immediate family members), G-1, G-2, G-3, G-4, NATO-1 through NATO-4, or NATO-6 (or seeking to enter as a nonimmigrant in one of those NATO categories); or (B) whose travel falls within the scope of section 11 of the United Nations Headquarters Agreement;”

(b) Section 3(c) of Proclamation 9984 is amended to read as follows: “(c) The Secretary of Homeland Security may establish standards and procedures to ensure the application of this proclamation at and between all United States ports of entry.”

(c) Section 5 of Proclamation 9984 is amended to read as follows:

“Sec. 5. Termination. This proclamation shall remain in effect until terminated by the President. The Secretary of Health and Human Services shall, as circumstances warrant and no more than 15 days after the date of this proclamation and thereafter on the first and fifteenth day of each calendar month, recommend that the President continue, modify, or terminate this proclamation and any other proclamation suspending or limiting the entry of foreign nationals into the United States as immigrants or nonimmigrants because of the threat posed by the virus.”

Sec. 5. Termination. This proclamation shall remain in effect until terminated by the President.

Sec. 6. Effective Date. This proclamation is effective at 5:00 p.m. eastern standard time on March 2, 2020. This proclamation does not apply to persons aboard a flight scheduled to arrive in the United States that departed prior to 5:00 p.m. eastern standard time on March 2, 2020.

Sec. 7. Severability. It is the policy of the United States to enforce this proclamation to the maximum extent possible to advance the national security, public safety, and foreign policy interests of the United States. Accordingly:

(a) if any provision of this proclamation, or the application of any provision to any person or circumstance, is held to be invalid, the remainder of this proclamation and the application of its provisions to any other persons or circumstances shall not be affected thereby; and

(b) if any provision of this proclamation, or the application of any provision to any person or circumstance, is held to be invalid because of the lack of certain procedural requirements, the relevant executive branch officials shall implement those procedural requirements to conform with existing law and with any applicable court orders.

Sec. 8. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this proclamation shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b) This proclamation shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c) This proclamation is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-ninth day of February, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and forty-fourth.

DONALD J. TRUMP

President Trump Press Briefing – Coronavirus Taskforce – 1:30pm ET


President Trump will be delivering remarks from the briefing room at the White House.  Anticipated start time 1:30pm ET.  Update – Video Added

WH Livestream Link – NBC Livestream Link – Alternate Livestream Link

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China In A Bull Shop!


China In A Bull Shop

Friday morning’s DOW futures are heavily in the red, and it does not portend well for the stock market. We’ve seen a 10-year bull market and some were saying the market could never go down, especially with the endless quantitative easing. Some said there was no other viable place for money to go, so the market would go up ad infinitum. A new paradigm of sorts. When you hear talk like that, it usually means the market has topped, but this bull just kept running up further no matter what.

Nothing could touch the Teflon market bubble. It’s a bubble that showcases unreasonable valuations (Tesla, for example), but the bubble kept inflating no matter what. Those that shorted it quickly turned into losers and were forced to cover—thus adding more fuel to a perma-bull market on fire.

It took China’s coronavirus to change all that. Now it’s a matter of just how much damage will be done. I’ve become accustomed to seeing the market always turn bright green after a few red days. Will Friday be the turnaround day? It remains to be seen and my crystal ball broke a long time ago, but it strikes me now that this market may not be just another buying opportunity.

Caution is advised.

—Ben Garrison

 

The ECM & the Market Crash


QUESTION #1: Hi Mr. Armstrong,
Might the current correction be the set up for the long awaited slingshot move?
Regards,
BE

COMMENT #1: I just wanted to say thank you. I sold out on the ECM and bought puts on the market. You just paid off my mortgage.

God bless you!

HJ

COMMENT #2: Marty, you are the only person who has the guts to make forecasts in the middle of a panic up or down. Your calls are beyond belief. No wonder the big boys call you.

KE

COMMENT #3: Hi Martin. Do you think the Fed and other Central Banks will cut rates due to the coronavirus and/or the market decline?
Socrates really helped me avoid this correction and even make some money.

Thank you.
AG

COMMENT #4: Hi Martin,
I don’t recall you ever commenting on the NYSE Composite Index. Just in case you don’t know. The all time high for the NYSE Comp Index is January 17, 2020. Right in sync with the ECM turn on Saturday Jan. 18. Most peoples focus is on the indexes that are tradable. So it is understandable that most people do not know the NYSE Comp index synced up perfectly with the ECM.
Perhaps you could mention this on your blog when commenting on the US stock market monthly closing today.
This weeks BIG down move will only increase your legendary status as the worlds top financial adviser.
Thank you so much for the private blog post last Sunday giving everyone a big warning of what was about to happen this week. The high for the week in the SP500 futures was last Sunday night at the 6 pm open.
Big Time Move Martin. Thank you from the bottom on my heart.
Sincerely,
DP

REPLY: The #1 golden rule is simple: What goes up, also comes down! Experience is something we gain through life. It is not easily acquired. We must make mistakes in order to gain knowledge. If someone wants to become an analyst, you must be in the game a long time to learn the twists the markets will always throw at you.

In the New Yorker Article on me back in October 2009, they wrote: “Armstrong remembers him coming out of his office in September 1998, two months after he’d got short in front of the ruble crisis. Monica Lewinsky was on TV. ‘My oscillators just turned,’ Armstrong announced. He booked his profits, pulled out of the market, and went to his beach house, on the Jersey Shore.” The 1998 turn saw the S&P 500 peak the very day of the ECM. That warned me that there would be a serious crisis and that became the Long-Term Capital Management debacle when the Fed bailed out a hedge fund.  The currencies peaked 8/17 and the games began in September.

Here we had the NYSE, and even the Dow peaked on the ECM, but the Dow followed the NASDAQ into its high which was due in February. Our Panic Cycles were due this week into March. What I have learned over the years is the real opponent is not the market — it is yourself! People always want to blame someone else for their loss. They will be the sort of people who are incapable of ever mastering the markets because they are incapable of ever learning from their mistakes. Always remember, you are battling against your own emotions.

I have come to LEARN that the harder it is to do a trade, the more likely it is absolutely correct. That statement in the New Yorker that I went to the beach after closing my short positions was not a celebration. It was discipline, for it was very hard to cover shorts and flip to a long position emotionally when the entire world says there will be no tomorrow.

 

The entire purpose of the Reversal System is to provide definitive levels in a market that is NOTdependent upon human emotion — mine or yours!

It does not matter if we are looking at 1987, 1998, 2007, or 2020. The numbers are the numbers. In the case of the 2007 ECM, the very day of the panic began on February 27, 2007. I have explained many times that I discovered the frequency from a list of international panics between 1683 and 1907 spanning 224 years with 26 events. The high in 2007 came intraday on October 11, 2007, which was 26.2 intervals of 8.6 days, or in other words it was fractal. However, the highest daily closing was two days before on 10/09, which made it precisely 224 days.

There are people who are so desperate to discredit the Economic Confidence Model and that remains a mystery to me. Are they the Flat Earth types that simply refuse to consider anything? Or are they paid for by “The Club” who are desperate to make money trading against the people and manipulating them at will? I really do not know. All I can do is say, “Hey look at the interesting order!” This proves the world is not just random chaos. There is a Secret Cycle or hidden order behind the curtain.

 

Insofar as the pressure on the Federal Reserve, we can see that pressure has been building in the form of the Repo Crisis into February. There is a Directional Change here with February and we should expect higher volatility in April/May where we have a turning point and a Directional Change. The entire Repo Crisis may begin to cause a severe crisis of confidence by the time we reach May/June.

Yes, this appears to be the beginning of a slingshot move

Corporate Profits to Decline into 2021?


QUESTION: You posted that there should be a recessionary trend starting here in 2020 even in the United States. Does that mean corporate profits will decline which impacts the stock market?

JB

ANSWER: Yes. I warned at the WEC that we were approaching a point where we could see a correction unfold in US equities. Corporate earnings should have peaked after a 19-year rally in 2019. There was a major spike rally into 2018-2019 that has been impacted by the Trump tax cuts and the corporate buy-backs so earnings rise in proportion to outstanding shares. There should be a two-year correction into 2021.

Our correlation models show that since we actually have global cooling, despite all the desperate manipulation of the data to create an average that is rising, temperatures have been declining where people actually live. This is serious for as the real temperature declines, the flu season gets worse. The last major flu epidemic was 1968 and that became a pandemic that killed more than 1 million people. The overreaction to this coronavirus may be an intentional manipulation of the economy as it undermining the economy. Cyclically, this is right on target. We have a Directional Change in 2021 and that is the next turning point. so I would expect we have seen the high in corporate profits and we have that correction unfolding into 2021

Tim Cook Discusses Apple, China, Coronavirus, Supply Chains and Working With President Trump…


Apple CEO Tim Cook discusses the coronavirus impacts on his specific business and his view on the short-term impacts from disruptions in China.  While retail stores and some manufacturing are closed in the short-term, overall Cook sees very little change in the outlook for Apple business once the short-term impacts are removed.

Tim Cook also discusses his relationship with President Trump working together on jobs and education programs. Cook notes President Trump was able to influence Prime Minister Modi of India to allow Apple to enter the Indian market.

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PS. if you are following the tiered and strategic deployment of COVID-19 hype, you’ll note the next round of heavy artillery (the WHO/CDC have been saving) is the announcement of an official global “pandemic status” being reached.  That will be worth a week of panic media and perhaps another thousand point drop for U.S. stock market.