QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; On the one hand you show the debasement of the Roman currency, but then you say there was also massive hoarding and deflation. Can you explain how do you get deflation with debasement?

Thank you for the the mind food

PH

ANSWER: It may seem to be a paradox, but everything unfolds like a bell curve. This is why you do not get the same result by simply moving in a straight line. This is the same thing we are experiencing currently under Quantitative Easing by central banks. We have increased the money supply, but we are also moving toward negative interest rates and this promotes hoarding. People have not been investing. They have been sitting on the sidelines trying to figure out what to do.

Sir Thomas Gresham made the observation that debasing the currency results in bad money drives out good. But what does that really mean? What he is saying is that people then start hoarding the old money. It may be a paradox, but debasement does not cause hyperinflation, it causes deflation because the vast money supply that was circulating is hoarded. Therefore, the government needs to further debase desperately trying to keep a sufficient degree of money in circulation. The more it debases, the more people hoard. As people hoard, they contract from commerce and GDP contracts. This results is a reduction in tax revenue, which then causes government to further debase to make up shortfalls in revenue.

When you then introduce a collapse in confidence within government, then if people no longer “feel” secure, they then hoard even the based currency. This is why we find so many hoards of debased Roman currency during the chaotic 3rd century.

It is a curious paradox. Right now, people are hoarding as are the banks and corporations. It is hard to hoard paper currency for you will not be able to distinguish between old and new. This means that the hoarding will migrate ti tangible assets, shares, gold, silver, and antiquities.

The Dow does not need to break last year’s low. That was accomplished in the NASDAQ and S&P500. Nothing has changed there. The entire interest rate issue has far too many people brainwashed. No doubt, they would initially sell. However, the market will rise with higher interest rates as it has always done historically. Therefore, as shorts build, we can easily create a bear trap and that is the fuel to rally again. This is the churning we are in until it appears at least after September.

This time, we have a far more serious problem with where to put money – big money. Stocks are the modern-day version of what what gold use to be decades again when you could jump on a plane with a suitcase full and sell it wherever you landed. Today, metal detectors prevent that from taking place. Stocks are being used to move money but they must be the high-end shares that are traded globally (see article posted on Egypt).

There is ABSOLUTELY NO INDICATION yet that we are in a bearish trend poised to break last year’s low in the Dow. Another retest of support – YES.  Breaking last year’s low would ONLY be indicated with a monthly closing beneath 16000 and prior to August. That said, we have a more important number for month-end at 17579 followed by 17210. A May closing below 17210 would signal a possible test of the 16000 level in the months ahead.

Nevertheless, it is the first Minor Weekly Bearish Reversal in the Dow lies at 17434 which we have flirted with on Thursday. We need a closing below this today to suggest a correction is unfolding. However, make no mistake about it, the next critical area is 17120, which happens to be a Daily and Weekly Bearish Reversal. That is the level to watch for a serious short-term break.

Keep in mind that people continue to think this market is “rich” in price and the are concerned about earnings. Those ideas are so out of touch with reality. The PE Ratio reach 50:1 in 2000 during the DOT.COM Bubble, but it exceeded 120:1 during the 2007-2009 meltdown because blue chips are the place to secure money. The market is by no means “rich” from a historical perspective.

There have been a some unusual capital flow developments involving Egypt illustrating that there is a shortage of dollars building which has been caused by the decline in oil prices. This decline in oil has resulted in a decline in subsidies for Egypt from other Arab nations. What has been taking place is interesting. Shares of Commercial International Bank Egypt on the Cairo market have been bought using Egyptian pounds and then dumped in London sold for dollars taking a loss between 20% and 30%. There is such a shortage of dollars building, there are developing net capital movement through proxy instruments.

These trades have been creating regulatory problems. Typically, regulatory limits dictate how much of the company’s shares can be be traded offshore in the form of global depository receipts. This flow of shares is impacting regulations all because of  a shortage of dollars.

The first Minor Weekly Bearish Reversal in the Dow lies at 17434. A closing beneath this for the week will confirm what already appears to be in motion technically as well as after electing three Daily Bearish Reversals. The next critical area is really 17120 which happens to be a Daily and Weekly Bearish Reversal. This is the primary support. Breaking this area then opens the door for a more sharp drop ahead to retest 16000.

We have a more important number for month-end and that is 17579 followed by 17210. A May close below this level will confirm a correction into the August/September period, which can extend even into early 2017. This should produce a retest of the broader support at 16000 and a breach of that level on a monthly closing basis would set the stage for a new low under that of 2015.

Keep in mind the Fed realizes that it needs desperately to restore some “normalization” to interest rates. The Fed is departing from Draghi who is destroying the future of Europe as is the Bank of Japan. This is really turning into the Clash of Titans. This is also unfolding is helping to keep the dollar as the only game in town.

Last week, the Dow closed BELOW the technical support I warned had to hold on any retest, which it did not. This was the market warning that between the chaos of the elections, the BREXIT vote in June, and the Fed realizing it has to raise interest rates to try to ward-off the growing demands to seize all pension funds in the nation to bailout public pensions in the various States, the future looks a bit cloudy at best.

We need to watch gold as well. If gold exceeds last year’s high of 1307.80, the likelihood of a sustain breakout beyond 1360 is not very good with a strong dollar. However, such move would also confirm an extension of this entire mess and any reversal where there is a sudden crisis in confidence in government within the main segment of the population would probably come in 2017. This makes sense from the perspective of 2017 being the year from Political Hell. It also would not rule out the ultimate swing for gold to crash to new lows really twisting the minds of everyone with rising rates and the dollar.

June is the first target for a shake in confidence with the BREXIT vote. It still appears they will be desperate to rig the vote. David Cameron has been calling upon everyone to paint such a dark picture if Britain leaves it demonstrates how important this is to the survival of Brussels, not Britain. Everyone from Obama to Christine Lagarde have been in London to warn the Brits to stay in line. I seriously doubt even if the real vote is to leave, as Stalin said, elections are decided by those who count the vote. The election fraud in Scotland should warn that this is probably in the bag for the “establishment” and that does not look very good for Britain.

So hold-on. The markets are still churning. A monthly closing for the Dow beneath the 16000 level will warn of a new low under 2015 going into 2017. Nevertheless, everything will flip when the general public comes to realize that the future looks very chaotic and it boils down to how can you trust. That is when the flip come from Public to Private.

Keep in mind that the Fed is really caught between the worst of two worlds. It needs to raise rates to save pension funds, yet higher rates is going to devastate the bond markets and blow out federal budgets. I have been warning that there will be NO INFLATION as long as rates remained low. Raising the rates is the only way to ignite inflation. Europe and Japan and just brain-dead.

People have been indoctrinated with Marx and Keynes to such an extent, they cannot invest because they are confused and assume rates up stocks down. They just listen to the talking heads on TV and never grasp the real history of this move.

Therefore, a break even to a new low will get everyone offside and assume this is the mother of all crashes. This is when the reversals and timing will help to pinpoint that low. Keep in mind that we need the majority to turn bearish to provide the fuel to the opposite move. This is just the way markets function.

So watch the numbers now. It’s Just Time. Keep in mind we if we hold the 16000 level on a monthly closing basis, then we will just churn back and forth. That is the key area on any decline on a monthly closing basis.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, there appears to be a dispute between what is money and what is a currency. Can you define each easily?

Thank you

LW

ANSWER: “Currency” is an official monetary instrument used in commerce. Currency must be “legal tender,” which means the government will accept it in payment for taxes. “Money” is a much more questionable element for it is different things to different people. The goldbugs would kill you if you dared to say gold and silver were not money. But go to Starbucks and try to explain that a silver dollar should buy you two coffees. Good luck! They will look at you as a con artist.

Money has traditionally been some commodity, be it gold, silver, bronze, seashells, cattle or sheepskins. You certainly cannot historically declare anything to be money for its changes with cultures and time.

As the legend goes, the Gauls attempted to invade the city of Rome quietly but had frightened the sacred flock of geese who made a lot of noise at the Temple of Juno. This alerted the Romans to the surprise attack giving us the word “monere,“ meaning “to warn” in Latin. The Temple of Juno then became popularly known as the Temple of Juno Moneta. Since this is where the coins were minted, we now arrive at the word “money” that springs from the origin of this legend and place that was an ancient mint. Our terms, such as capital flow, arrives from the Latin word “currere” meaning “to run” or “to flow.” This is where the money flowed from, and gives us the word “currency” meaning the “flow of money.” This is why Juno Moneta is pictured on Roman coins as holding the balance scales in one hand and a cornucopia in the other symbolizing endless bounty or wealth. This is the birth of the terms “money” and “currency.”

You can argue with Internal Revenue Service that gold and silver are “money” all you want, but they do not have to accept it in payment of your taxes. The paper dollar is the currency and duly states “THIS NOTE IS LEGAL TENDER FOR ALL DEBTS PUBLIC AND PRIVATE.” The Supreme Court nullified all gold clauses in private contracts (PERRY v. UNITED STATES, 294 U.S. 330 (1935)), so legally only paper dollars are “currency” for they are accepted by law publicly or privately.

Of course, the markets have been causing losses among the bulls as well as the bears. This is what they do and MUST do before they can actually make a decisive move of the nature we are looking at ahead. It becomes rather amusing to watch the so called professionals end up constantly wrong so they start bruding and proclaiming this feels like 2000 or 2007 before the crash. Are they right? Or are they just angry because they lack the skills to forecast?

Nevertheless, our proprietary Golden Rule of the 3 Attempts (TM) is a very important tool to comprehend. (details will be at the Technical Training Course).

Well, let’s look at 2000 from the Dow perspective. The 2000 high was a Phase Transition in the NASDAQ DOT.COM Bubble. When we look at the Dow, we still see a high, but it is more of a declining sideways pattern. There were three failed attempts to make new highs but each was lower than the previous in compliance with our Golden Rule of the 3 Attempts (TM). This by no means appears even similar to the current pattern.

When we compare this to the current pattern pictured here, we see that the third thrust broke through the channel and made a higher high. This is not showing long-term weakness. We have a different trading pattern going on here one designed to create confusion and get the MAJORITY on the wrong side to enable a Phase Transition to even unfold. To revisit key support, the Dow must now close back below 17120 and then we will get a correction.

Here is the 2007 high. Again we see our Golden Rule of the 3 Attempts (TM) to rally but each one was significantly lower with new lows each time. This patterns warned of C R A S H & WATERFALL EVENT was in motion. This reflects a clear bearish pattern with lower highs and lower lows.

Now, look at how a market knocks on the door three times before it breaks out. This is just one of our technical rules we call the Golden Rule of the 3 Attempts (TM). No doubt other analysts will quickly plagiarize this and call it their own and you will then see who is a real analyst and who is fake. Still, even the 1966 rally, which was the Mutual Fund Bubble, and the 1968 rally when Bretton Woods started to crack, were the initial attempts to break 1,000. Then we had the 3 attempts which did exceed 1,000 before the breakout began with the beginning of this Private Wave. Note also that while gold rallied from $34 in 1970 to almost $200 by 1974, the Dow rallied and broke through the 1,000 level for the first time. They did not move in opposite directions.

So to those who keep yelling the market will crash to 10 cents on the dollar, all I can say is I suppose that means people will buy bonds at -10% interest rates just to park money? If what they are yelling is even possible, then interest rates must move lower and big money is willing to lose it all just to park money. I am sorry. I just do not understand such logic. This is normally the type of nonsense you get from people who want to pretend to be an analyst but have no experience in the field so they lack any comprehension of the moving parts. To create a stock market crash we need confidence to rise in government. Excuse me. Anyone hear of Donald Trump? Confidence in government is declining rapidly, not rising.

And as for the dire prognostications that the stock market will crash because the Fed will raise rates, this only once again demonstrates such people are not analysts at all for they have nothing original to add to the debate. I traded that rate hike under Paul Volcker into 1981. With each rate hike the market declined true, then rebound. The final hike in 1981 was a real lesson for the market rallied. It did not even decline. When they took place, I knew the ECM was correct and we peaked in rates right then and there.

So sure, we should expect the market will drop when the Fed raises rates. Fools will be easily separated from their money. This is why there are fools in the world. Every species is serves a purpose as energy in the food chain for the next one up in the food chain. Trading markets amounts to the same process. We always need the person on the opposite side.

Rising US rates will be inevitable. This will drive the dollar higher, fuel the debt meltdown, and when the capital inflows push US assets higher, the Fed will be compelled to raise rates further to stop the speculation because that is pure Keynesianism that does not work, but hey, what else do they have to do.

A new study by the Green Party in Germany places the USA at the top of the list of tax havens for foreign investors. They have highlighted the key states in their study. I have written about this before. The strong capital flows coming into the USA from overseas have been stunning, to say the least. Some 3,000 millionaires from Greece, 10,000 millionaires from France, 6,000 millionaires from Italy, 2,000 millionaires from Spain, and about 2,000 millionaires from Russia have all migrated to the USA.

This is confirming what we see on capital flows. The dollar haters are incapable of looking at international news, and they only focus on the Fed and the Treasury. They seem incapable of objective analysis or looking at the entire world.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have indeed sparked my curiosity. With both the velocity of money and the trading volume declining since 1998, this seems to be a very dangerous position and your work is really eye opening. I read your Transactional Banking and it seems that this has changed everything for the worse. Your Big Bang seems to have been on target starting with 2015.75 as that was the peak in government and we have seen a further decline in economic growth. With trading volume bottoming in 2014 and your War Cycle turning up also in 2014, the picture is starting to come into focus. Your warning of a Phase Transition building is also starting to make sense for the volume is at the lows not the highs and it appears you are forecasting a big rush out of government debt into private. I think I am beginning to see the future and this looks crazy indeed. Am I on the right track?

Thank you so much for the most thought provoking blog on the web.

JD

ANSWER: Yes, you are on the right track. We are caught in a riptide of events that we cannot escape from. The bigger picture connects all these models together. Our political models and war cycle, as well as the transactional banking evolution and sovereign debt crisis, are lining up to reshape the future in a way I had hoped would be wrong. We held the Solution Conference to show the way out. It gives me no pleasure in bringing all of this together. I cannot simply reduce this to a single cause and effect. This is not even about one country; it is primitive to talk about the dollar and how it will crash and burn without any comprehension of the real trend in motion on a global scale. Politicians are doing whatever they can to make this insanity worse. Merkel is allowing a cultural invasion of Europe and she will not stop. The G20 as of January 1, 2017, will track every dime globally and share info on everyone for taxes.

From 1983 onward, the capital flows have shifted in preparation for this private wave. This is what made the dollar reach record highs in 1985 with the British pound dropping to par. Of course, this also made our Capital Flow Models world famous, and now even China has publicly stated they use capital flow analysis to manage monetary policy. What made the world economy recover following World War II was that USA ended up with 76% of the world gold reserves, which made the dollar the reserve currency. Americans invested outside of the USA and restarted the world economy. Now we have FATCA and Americans cannot even have a bank account outside the USA, no less start a business. Capital is contracting into the USA. Now the G20 will make that contract even more. With tax havens destroyed by the IMF’s threats to unplug them from the SWIFT system to stop money going in or out of their countries, the only place is the United States for Americans, by law, and the rest of the world once again as was the case for World War I and II.

This is why we will be putting this all together at this year’s World Economic Conference. It is an amazing picture, no doubt. Whatever could go wrong is going wrong. The vast majority of people will lose everything — that is just the way it goes. The model is designed to give us the CONFIRMING points (e.g. if this happens, then this will occur). So when you approach this globally, only then will the trend make your eyes pop open. It appears 2017 is opening the door. Nobody has ever lived through such an event, so I do not understand how it is even possible to do this from an “opinion” perspective. To survive, we need a comprehensive global model you can see.