Posted originally on Oct 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Since you are probably the first to develop a real AI computer decades before anyone heard of AI, what is your opinion of the future of AI? You have been silent on this trend.
ANSWER: Look, there is a difference between the short-term from a trading perspective and the long-term. ChatGPT is a language-based model like the others. It is capable of amazing things, but when you pull back the curtain, there is still a significant difference between human intellect and machine learning.
Nvidia became the first company to surpass a $5 trillion valuation, as the firm continues to profit handsomely from the AI boom. However, the world’s largest company has seen its stock skyrocket by more than 44,000% over the last decade—and its record-setting net worth is greater than Germany’s entire 2024 GDP. That said, there is the risk of a short-term high in November. That is set in motion by human emotion – not long-term fundamentals.
I believe language-based models can replace judges and courts, and it would be a vast improvement to replace politicians who like to play with economics as a socialist tool to punish anyone who has more than they do. Riisevelt won with class warfare during the Great Depression, and they have not changed that formula, which is why we are witnessing the decline and fall of the Democratic Party, which has fallen into the trap like Hitler, who demonized the Jews, pushing the conspiracy theory that communism was a Jewish agenda.
The limitations of AI are very stark. This technology is not capable of original discovery. That happens to be reserved for human intellect. When I designed Socrates, I understood this. I had to code how I would think, trade, and actually train Socrates to replace myself. This was not an easy task. However, this was possible only because the field was limited. It was not going to search the Web to find the name of Lady GaGa’s French Bulldog.
They did that at IBM with Big Blue. They thought it would find the cure for cancer – it failed. There is something more that makes our brain function. It is NOT just a neural net; consciousness somehow emerges from all the connections. Granted, they try to mimic the brain and look upon us as simply a biological lifeform without actually understanding that there is something much more profound.
IBM Watson faced significant challenges in the healthcare sector, ultimately leading to its sale in 2022 after a series of failures to deliver on its promises. Despite its initial success on the quiz show Jeopardy!, the application of AI in healthcare proved to be more complex and problematic than anticipated. The difference between Jeopardy and Original Research/Discovery is that the AI Language-Based Models can only uncover what is known. They cannot discover something previously unknown.
Socrates is fundamentally different because I taught it how to discover, not what to discover. IBM failed because it assumed that throwing a pile of data into the system would make it become conscious. That is an excellent plot for a movie, but it is not reality. Perhaps I could do something in the medical field. But it would take me sitting down with real researchers to understand the process of discovery in such a field. Just because I was able to construct a system that monitors the entire world and comprehends how everyone will act in their own self-interest, does not mean I could accomplish the same in medicine.
When we are talking about the rule of law and politics, AI could help eliminate the constant biases and mistakes that cause history to repeat over and over again like Greek tragedy, but the actors merely change – not the plot.
Centinel2012 