Tag Archives: Uranium One

Dec 4 2018

Excellent Dan Bongino Podcast Today…… But….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 3, 2018 by

Political analyst and commentator Dan Bongino has a great dot-connecting podcast today that outlines the players, motives, moves and intentions surrounding the ongoing Deep Administrative State battle.

It is an excellent presentation in all facets, with one minor gear slightly askew – which CTH will explain.  The content is very well presented. Everyone should listen to the podcast.  (Hit the little orange arrow):

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The only divergence CTH holds to the overall outline is below.

This is not a criticism to the well thought-out Bongino presentation. When compared to our research and the myriad of granular issues that can be overwhelmingly complex, the summary and conclusions of Mr. Bongino are accurate, factual and well delivered.  There’s just a part of the process missing from the analysis.

CTH has a worm buried deep in the machine.

Think about the CTH worm like a tiny, seemingly insignificant, gear amid a massive and complex information machine that runs on hundreds of other interconnected gears that work in concert.

Here’s the flaw.

IG Michael Horowitz is *NOT* a decision-maker in the system.

The IG is an evaluator of investigative fact. He holds absolutely no power.  The distinction is important.  Understanding the distinction is critical.

Within the IG process – a draft report is assembled, exhaustively and painstakingly reconciled, and delivered to the principles. In essence, the DOJ Inspector General presents his findings to his boss.

That’s where things get squirrely.

That’s where Dan Bongino’s excellently prepared outline goes askew.

Mike Horowitz schedules an appointment, shows up and gives his DOJ boss the draft report. [This happens prior to the draft report going to the principles outlined within the report.]  The boss says: “Thanks Mike; really, you’ve done an excellent job; please thank your entire team; we’ll take it from here; and we’ll get back to you shortly”.

From that moment, Horowitz no longer has control or input. He has assembled the draft report. The bosses review the draft. Within the bosses review, redactions to the report begin.  These are not the type of redactions you are familiar with.  There are no black boxes covering up the text.

This type of redacting is actually decisions above the IG’s pay grade. The redactions are removals of report content that become part of classified appendices.  The issues the bosses want to see handled with sensitivity are removed.  Text is not covered-up, it is removed.

Remember the IG report on FBI misconduct and bias? If so, you might remember there were two classified appendices.  This is how the bosses remove the damaging stuff which allows the executive summary of the report to be written in a manner that might be entirely different from the report content.

The decision-making over the removed material (classified appendices) is the opportunity for corrupt DOJ/FBI officials to remove any uncomfortable issues for their interests.  This is where the risk is managed.  This is where the administrative state protects itself.

Once the “classified” information is removed (“classified” as determined by the officials in control to represent details that are of national security value – and not necessarily based on anything other than their arbitrary opinion), the report is given back to the IG in modified form to allow: (A) the modified draft to be submitted to the external principles for potential feedback and addition; and (B) the executive summary to be written.

The executive summary is formulated to describe what is left visible within the main report.  It is a summary of the public version.  The executive summary does not draw attention to the classified appendices.

As a result the executive summary may end up being disconnected from the main body of the report because substantive information is now removed and held only in classified appendices.

When the final report is presented, the control over the “national security” appendices is tight and only given to a select set of elected political officials charged with oversight.

As Bongino has eloquently outlined, in this current IG example the oversight team just happens to be the team that is at greatest risk from the content within the draft IG report.

The removed material, the classified and national security appendices, can hold the problematic material that is damaging to the administrative state.

This little known and highly opaque process allows the deep state damage control.  It is not a flaw in the system; it is by design.  The ‘system’ is not technically influencing the IG report; the ‘system’ is controlling the consequences of the report based on national security interests.

See how that works?

That is the process.

Now…. That’s the bad news.  There is, however, a possibility for good news.

Without providing my opinion on the matter; it is a fact the person who Michael Horowitz would normally be calling to schedule the draft report meeting has changed.

Because of the Jeff Sessions recusal issues, the previous two draft reports (¹FBI handling of Clinton email, and ²FBI bias in ’15/’16) were delivered to Rod Rosenstein and Robert Mueller.

It was Rod and Bob, with input from Chris who said: “Thanks Mike, we’ll take a look and get back to you”; and then proceeded with the removal of *national security* content for placement in the lock-box of classified appendices.

Do the prior IG report consequences, or lack therein, make sense now?

For this third IG report, perhaps the most important IG report, Michael Horowitz should be calling Acting AG Matthew Whitaker to schedule the appointment.

Depending on your confidence in Mr. Whitaker; the very positive potential outcome Dan Bongino describes might be true…. Or, if you are more cynical of the deep state; and your experience has taught you these officials tend to think well ahead of everyone else; that Acting AG appointment might result in the same outcome of the prior two.

To fuel the optimism angle…. Perhaps that’s why Jeff Sessions *needed* to resign.

Perhaps, without knowing the granular details – but on the advice of others, that’s why POTUS Trump agreed to allow the IG to complete his tasks (prior to Sessions removal announcement); with advisors aiding the office in timing etc.

I agree with Bongino that there’s an epic game of political chess afoot within the overarching dynamic.  The stakes could not be higher; and if you are one or two degrees wrong in forecasting the motives; you likely can’t anticipate the moves.

So CTH provides the information, you decide what it means.

The good thing is, regardless of how it all ends-up, President Trump *can* request to see all of the report content –and he can declassify it– if the people around the office of the president desire to aid him in doing so.

Then again, the deep state knows this too….

Dec 4 2018

Grassley Questions Horowitz About FBI Raid on Whistleblower….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 3, 2018 by

Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley has always worked earnestly to protect whistleblowers; it is a subject near and dear to his heart.  Against the backdrop of an unexpected raid on the home of an approved and protected whistleblower named Dennis Nathan Cain, Senator Grassley writes to Inspector General Horowitz:

(Document Link)

Dec 4 2018

MAGAnomics – ISM Manufacturing Survey Results Easily Exceed Expectations…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree house on December 3, 2018 by

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released their manufacturing review today highlighting continued expansion of the underlying economy.  The results today from within the overall manufacturing industry emphasize the 27th consecutive month of growth…. and a future-view that seems to be predicting much more.  Much more!

ISM Release […] Manufacturing expanded in November, as the PMI® registered 59.3 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 57.7 percent. “This indicates growth in manufacturing for the 27th consecutive month, led by strong new orders, production output and continued slowing supplier delivery performance,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting. (more)

Okay CTH, so take the business wonk-speak out of this – what does it mean?

Here’s the summary: Manufacturers are increasing new orders (making more stuff). Production outputs and employment within the manufacturing sector are still growing. Suppliers are still having a tough time filling material orders, but they are finding new and innovative ways to speed up shipments of raw material. However, despite the speed (increased efficiency in delivering the raw material), the backlog of requests is still growing (new orders exceed supply chain). Customer inventories are too low (hence the backlog for new stuff). Inflationary pressure still exists, but the rate of price growth is slowing (increased supplier efficiency). Manufacturing exports and imports are growing. The economy is expanding.

The story within the manufacturing sector is the story within the middle-class U.S. economy.  This is MAGAnomics at work.

The bad news is, if you can call it bad news, that our America-First economy is so strong we are struggling to produce, secure and ship enough stuff to fuel the underlying demand.  Every nation wishes they had this problem.

The manufacturing sector is trying to find ways to produce more stuff, as the infrastructure for producing more stuff is not yet ready.  When the new production capacity (prior investment) comes on-line, it will be easier to make more stuff.

“Efficiency Drivers” – You are seeing this in a few different ways.  [Transport] Think about tractor-trailers (18 wheel big rigs) on the roads; you are seeing more dual-trailers being hauled.  This is a way to ship more stuff, quicker.  Additionally, Trump’s cabinet is pushing the economic gas pedal with DOT Secretary Elaine Chao allowing younger (18-year-old) apprentice truck haulers; to help fill the insatiable need for truck drivers etc.

The manufacturing expansion shows up in the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics production efficiency third quarter report known as “Productivity”.

BEA – Q3 […] Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.2 percent during the third quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 4.1 percent and hours worked increased 1.8 percent. (more)

Economic analysis can get weedy…. so a simple way to look at productivity is to think about baking bread in your kitchen.

If you were going to bake 4 loaves of bread it might take you 2 hrs start to finish. However, if you were going to bake 8 loaves of bread it would not take you twice as long because most of the tasks can be accomplished with simple increases in batch size, and only minor increases in labor time.  Your productivity, measured in the last four loaves, is higher.

Economic Productivity is measured much the same way, within what’s called a production probability equation.  Additionally, if two hours of your time are worth $40, each of four loaves of bread costs $10; but if you make 8 loaves in the same amount of time the labor cost is only $5/per loaf.

From 2007 through 2017 the average rate of productivity increase was 1.3%.  However, in the third quarter of 2018 productivity was strong at 2.2% [Q2 productivity 2.9%].  That means total business output increased significantly as more product was demanded from within the business operation.  Throughout the economy people just wanted more stuff.

Improved gains in efficiency/productivity (more bread needed) supports faster economic growth without generating higher inflation; no need to raise prices because your cost to make each loaf of bread decreases the more you make.  Higher sales and lower per unit cost means more profit for the bread-maker at the same price.  No need to raise prices.  Without inflation, there should be no motive for the Fed to raise interest-rates.

Increases in productivity generally means the economy is generating more stuff.  The more stuff generated the higher the value of all economic activity; this increases GDP growth.

When we see higher productivity in direct alignment with GDP increases, the increased production indicates sustainable GDP growth.

We made 4.1 percent more stuff, and only worked 1.8 percent longer. The net is a 2.2 percent productivity increase:

Manufacturing sector labor productivity increased 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2018, as output increased 3.4 percent and hours worked increased 2.9 percent. Productivity increased 1.5 percent in the durable manufacturing sector, as output rose 4.9 percent and hours worked increased 3.4 percent. Over the last four quarters, total manufacturing sector productivity increased 1.3 percent, as output increased 3.4 percent and hours worked increased 2.1 percent. Unit labor costs in manufacturing increased 0.9 percent in the third quarter of 2018 and increased 0.9 percent from the same quarter a year ago. (link)

So what do we have?  Low inflation; expanding employment opportunity; record low unemployment; and rising wages – meaning more money in your pocket.

These measures all have a cumulative impact on paycheck-to-paycheck Americans. Prices for durable goods are stable, and wage growth is exceeding inflation. That means more disposable income in the middle-class…. which, when combined with the increased pay from lower middle-class tax rates, is exactly the intended outcome of MAGAnomics.

This creates a situation where the U.S. consumer can fuel the the U.S. economy while President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer utilize the leverage within tariffs, to negotiate better America-First trade deals.

That is economic nationalism.

That my friends is MAGAnomics.

Sec. Wilbur Ross

✔ @SecretaryRoss

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Sec. Wilbur Ross

✔ @SecretaryRoss

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Dec 4 2018

President Trump Notes the Motives/Intents of Team Mueller…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 3, 2018 by

You’d be amazed at the number of people, presumably ‘on-our-side‘, who deny that Robert Mueller and Rod Rosenstein are simply an extension of the corrupt intelligence/political apparatus.  However, President Trump knows exactly what the Team Mueller intents and purposes are:

I strongly suggest reading this research:  “On page 7 of the statement of criminal information filed against Cohen, which is separate from but related to the plea agreement, Mueller mentions that Cohen tried to email Russian President Vladimir Putin’s office on Jan. 14, 2016, and again on Jan. 16, 2016. But Mueller, who personally signed the document, omitted the fact that Cohen did not have any direct points of contact at the Kremlin, and had resorted to sending the emails to a general press mailbox. Sources who have seen these additional emails point out that this omitted information undercuts the idea of a “back channel” and thus the special counsel’s collusion case.

Page 2 of the same criminal information document holds additional exculpatory evidence for Trump, sources say. It quotes an August 2017 letter from Cohen to the Senate intelligence committee in which he states that Trump “was never in contact with anyone about this [Moscow Project] proposal other than me.” This section of Cohen’s written testimony, unlike other parts, is not disputed as false by Mueller, which sources say means prosecutors have tested its veracity through corroborating sources and found it to be accurate.” [Please continue reading]

Dec 4 2018

NEC Director Larry Kudlow Discusses Dinner Table Convo With Chinese Delegation…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 3, 2018 by

National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow discusses some of the key specifics within the dinner table conversation between President Trump and Chairman Xi.  [*note* at the very end of this briefing, Kudlow is asked about the German auto visit tomorrow]

President Trump has been brutally consistent for more than three decades on his intent and purpose with the Chinese.  President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.  Additionally, while carrying out the objectives of the confrontation, Secretary Mnuchin, Secretary Ross, Ambassador Lighthizer and adviser Navarro are well aware of Beijing’s panda mask; POTUS Trump will never let them forget about it.

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With a full quarter of trade data to analyze the impacts, the Chinese tariff results are now measurable.  A multinational group studying the outcome (full pdf), identified that approximately 4.5% of the current tariff impact is being carried by American consumers.  The overwhelming cost of the tariff is being paid (20.5% absorbed) by Chinese producers.

There is no doubt in my mind that President Trump has a very well thought out long-term strategy regarding China. President Trump takes strategic messaging toward the people of China very importantly. President Trump has, very publicly, complimented the friendship he feels toward President Xi Jinping; and praises Chairman Xi for his character, strength and purposeful leadership. Trump knows how to play their panda/dragon games.

In June and July last year it became obvious President Trump was going to initiate a full-frontal geopolitical confrontation with China based on their ambitions for economic conquest.  We labeled the confrontation: Eagle -vs- Red Dragon.

Specifically around: intellectual property theft; massive U.S. trade imbalances; imposed tariffs, and ridiculous non-tariff barriers put in place by China, we anticipated the conflict would eventually force Beijing to drop the Panda mask and expose their economic intentions.  Additionally there was clarity within President Trump’s approach for any observer who was willing to accept the history of Mr. Trump’s views on the larger issues. In short, POTUS Trump will not back down.

In March of 2018 U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer completed a section 301 review of China’s trade practices.  [SEE HERE] Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974 authorizes the President to take all appropriate action, including retaliation, to obtain the removal of any act, policy, or practice of a foreign government that violates an international trade agreement or is unjustified, unreasonable, or discriminatory, and that burdens or restricts U.S. commerce.  However, as talks with China progressed, President Trump shelved the 301 action to see where negotiations would end-up.

Due to the severity of communist ideology, and the intransigence of China to make any modification to their global economic plans, Chairman Xi Jinping made the strategic decision to elevate the confrontation in full Red Dragon mode.  The May and June, 2018, negotiations between the U.S. and China provided no progress.  The 301 review of China was pulled back off the shelf in August 2018, and President Trump began executing his trade-war strategy.

When President Trump and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced tariffs on Steel and Aluminum, in combination with Round #1 tariffs on imported Chinese products, the Wall Street financial media went bananas with dire predictions of inflation.

However, in September, October and November the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released the August and Sept measures of inflation in consumer goods.  Despite the doom-and-gloom predictions from the self-interested multinationals, the inflation rate is still below 0.2% the same result as July ’18.  Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food components, is hovering between 0.1% and 0.2% overall.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 250,000 in October, following an average monthly gain of 211,000 over the prior 12 months. In October, job growth occurred in health care, in manufacturing, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)

Low inflation; expanding employment opportunity; low unemployment; and rising wages.

These measures all have a cumulative impact on paycheck-to-paycheck Americans.  Prices for durable goods are stable and wage growth is exceeding inflation.  That means more disposable income in the middle-class…. which, when combined with the increased pay from lower middle-class tax rates, is exactly the intended outcome of MAGAnomics.

This creates a situation where the U.S. consumer can fuel the the U.S. economy while President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer utilize the leverage within tariffs, to negotiate better America-First trade deals.

President Trump’s economic policy cabinet is the most effective group of individuals every assembled in modern U.S. history; arguably in all of U.S. history.   The economic policy plans are working exactly as projected; and, in combination with the domestic economic strength, this empowers President Trump’s international engagements with a stunning amount of influence and leverage.

Economic Security is National Security.  We are seeing this multidimensional truth being carried out for the first time in our lifetimes, thanks to a blue-collar billionaire.

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Dec 4 2018

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Discusses the U.S-China Trade Reset and Initiatives….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 3, 2018 by

One of the less discussed aspects to President Trump’s economic cabinet is the careful selection of specific members who operate above the financial influence of ‘The Big Club’. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are two key positions able to focus on economic nationalism without worrying about undue influence from the globalist lobbying pressure of Tom Donohue and the U.S. CoC.

The baseline of financial independence, and disconnect from self-interest, is unique in our lifetime; and allows the resulting execution of economic policy to focus, very deliberately, on America First objectives.  Secretary Mnuchin discusses the China confrontation:

Dec 4 2018

Greta Van Susteren Interviews President Trump…


Re-Posted from The conservative Tree House on December 3, 2018 by

A lengthy interview (recently released) between Greta Van Susteren and President Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Argentina.  The topics include: the USMCA trade agreement; the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; overall global trade; issues within the global climate change economy; Brexit, China, the U.S. economy and immigration.

As most CTH readers are aware MAGAnomic policy, economic nationalism, is the largest focus of President Trump.  Beyond all other issues, this is the POTUS priority. Within this interview the president walks through the geopolitical issues and interests for the U.S. economy.  Well worth watching:

Dec 4 2018

Democrats Poised to Launch a Range of Political Probes Against Trump & Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Dec 4, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The next two years will do more to undermine the trust, confidence, and faith in government as the Democrats launch their political agenda to try to smear Trump for the 2020 Presidential election. It is all about them just winning in 2020 and to hell with the government, the nation, or the people. The Democrats are poised to launch a series of investigations after winning the House as they control key committees. They are preparing to probe a range of issues including Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, Michael Cohen’s payments to women who say they’ve had affairs with Trump (allegations he denies), potential obstruction of justice and Trump’s finances. Trump in return has pledged to declassify key documents that will show that this entire Russian nonsense is a waste of time. The emails that were released were GENUINE and there are NO ALLEGATIONS that they were manufactured or altered by any Russians or aliens from another planet getting ready to invade.

This entire affair because Hillary lost has resurrected the Cold War and has placed the entire world at risk of war all because of the Democrats simply trying to win. So buckle up. The next two years will do far more to undermine the confidence in government than at any point in history.

In ancient Rome, there was the office of the Tribune of the People. They could bring criminal charges against any politician and they could not be obstructed or interfered with. We have the office of Inspector General which was supposed to be a watered down very of the Tribune. They will investigate and issue reports, but that is it. They have no power whatsoever. Congress should be BANNED from investigating presidents PERIOD!!!!! It is always for political purposes. That even applies to the investigations such as Bill and Monaca. The investigation should be conducted by the office of the Inspector General and their report should be presented to Congress where the House votes to impeach or not and it goes off to the Senate for a trial. If anyone in the Inspector General office is political, takes bribes, or a post afterward, they should stand trial with the penalty of LIFE IMPRISONMENT. These Congressional investigations waste time, money, and are ONLY for political purposes which are corruption at government expense. Mueller is absolutely political and he is wasting the resources of the nation. He is intent on desperately trying to charge Trump with anything possible. His indicting everyone around Trump is unethical and he is a disgrace to the nation. Special Prosecutors would not be necessary if the office of Inspector General had power as did the Roman Tribune.

Dec 3 2018

Trump’s Former Lawyer Lied to Congress, So…What?


Published on Dec 3, 2018

Michael Cohen, former attorney to Donald Trump, confessed to Special Counsel Robert Mueller that he lied at least three times to Congress about business deals involving the Trump organization and Russia. Do the Democrats finally have the material they need to bring down the president? Bill Whittle Now explores the lack of substance in the latest “revelations”. You enjoyed this video, so you’re the ideal person to become a producer of these kinds of conversations. Join Bill Whittle at http://BillWhittle.com/subscribe
Dec 3 2018

Democrats Preview Their Resistance Contortions Over MAGAnomics….


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 2, 2018 by

This is a painful, albeit rather telling, interview to watch.  Matt Cartwright has not had the time to fully digest how to be a good resistance member, whereby he simultaneously argues for and against the economic and trade policies of President Trump.

On domestic economic policies, specifically trade, President Trump is essentially carrying out all of the objectives of the blue-dog (moderate) Democrat party.  However, now the ‘resist we much overlay’ creates a pretzel dynamic for those same democrats.  They are for the policies, but must oppose the person carrying out those policies.  This is a goofy preview of what is to come in 2019.

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Lost but not invisible in the Cartwright angst is any acceptance that President Obama never cancelled NAFTA; nor did President Obama ever challenge the one-way economics of China; both of these confrontations and resets are favored by the new co-chair of the democrat platform committee…. but favored/not-favored when Trump does it.

As an outcome of supporting/not supporting, policies they support/don’t support, what surfaces is a word salad mixed up faster than a bar blender.

NAFTA bad and USMCA better/not-better.  NAFTA labor constructs horrible, and USMCA better/not-better; and ending with something about infrastructure spending that Democrats refused to engage in discussing throughout 2018, because the economy is on the precipice of an invisible recession, or something.

All the growth in factory investment and manufacturing jobs; as well as the lowest unemployment in 50-years means the economy is coming to an immediate collapse.

Tariffs are bad, they are creating too many U.S. jobs.

75% required North American content in USMCA is bad… it creates too many U.S. jobs.

The furniture industry might return; the electronics manufacturing industry is certainly returning;  Speaker Pelosi and AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka shout: damn you Trump and all of this expanded U.S. manufacturing job growth.   Aiiieeeee.

Democrats want to argue for more restrictions on imports?  Alright, alright, alright – Lucky Day, Lucky Day!

WhaFaSau? or something similar.

The democrats need new linguistics that explain upside-down counter-reality doublespeak words that can invert themselves and become something favorable to the resistance.

The bottom-line is…. On the domestic economic agenda, Democrats have no actual point of opposition that President Trump is not likely to embrace.  Don’t like the USMCA? Okay, kill it, remember NAFTA bad, and we’ll go for something even more America First.

But wait… wha, huh?

President Trump directly supports middle-class U.S. workers more than any Democrat President ever has.   You want more support for middle-class workers?  Okay, spank me long time bad panda… let’s go for it.

Hate Wall Street, or at least need to do the pretend to hate Wall Street thing?  Hey, #MeToo smiles POTUS!   President Trump has clearly shown support for Main Street over Wall Street…  that’s what America First is all about.

MAGA Trump hates the multinationals’ and favors the credit unions.  Let’s roll !

Democrats are in a really unusual economic space with the dimension of their resistance.  They don’t want to give President Trump any wins, but he’s working on almost all of their ‘claimed’ objectives for middle-class workers.  If they come at Trump with legislation that benefits the U.S. economy/worker; he’s all good with that.

So now what will they do?

Pass the word-salad blender, please.