Just as the Assad regime (with Russian support) is about to retake Aleppo in a critical offensive, one which would shift the momentum of the nearly 6-year-long Syrian proxy war entirely to the benefit of the country’s ruling regime, something unexpected happened: one day after the US announced it would send another 200 ground troops to Syria, and two days after  Obama unexpectedly lifted a ban restricting the delivery of military aid to “foreign forces, irregular forces, groups, or individuals,” Islamic State jihadists successfully recaptured the ancient desert city of Palmyra, after a much-trumpeted army victory there in March.

On Sunday, the Islamic State retook the desert city of Palmyra in Syria after being driven out of the city hours earlier by heavy Russian aerial attacks, according to Deutsche Welle.

“Despite the ongoing air raids, IS retook all of Palmyra after the Syrian army withdrew south of the city,” said Rami Abdel Rahman, who heads the Britain-based Syrian Observatory of Human Rights.
The Amaq news agency, which has links to the IS militants, also reported that the group had retaken “full control” of the city after first taking Palmyra’s citadel (above photo), which overlooks the historic site.

After launching an offensive in the region a few days before, IS pushed into the city on Saturday, only to be forced to withdraw by a fierce Russian bombing campaign that killed scores of its fighters.

In celebration of its rare victory, the Islamic State released video of captured vehicles in Palmyra, as well as general footage from inside the city; notice the Farsi signage

The following narrative provides a good summary of what happened in the blitz offensive, which saw as many as 64 Russian airstrikes, which however weren’t enough, prompting some to question if Saudi Arabia and/or Qatar are involved and supporting the Islamic State directly.

Some other details from the Daily Beast:

  Russian officers stationed at Palmyra, he said, withdrew four days ago; they were then followed by leadership of Assad’s regular army and his militias a day later. All quit the scene because they saw how quickly the few dozen ISIS militants were advancing in their direction, according to al-Homsi.

A pro-regime source told The Daily Beast that the oil and gas fields were defended by the National Defense Force, a pro-Assad militia built and trained by Iran. “The NDF had over 800 men posted around the straetgic Shaar gas field and the other areas, in addition to around 250 regular soldiers, the source said. “They had maintained defensive positions for the last 6 months. In August, operations had been stopped. When ISIS attacked days ago they retreated and left most of the heavy weapons without a fight. In the panic, over 100 were killed or are still missing. Word is that a senior NDF commander who was stationed around Shaar was bribed by ISIS. It is not the first time this has happened. A decision was made to prevent the city falling at all costs.”

Unofficial reports suggest that so far the ISIS spoils from Palmyra amount to the following:

• 30 tanks
• 6 BMP
• 6 of 122 / 7 guns
• 7 of 23 guns
• Untold anti-tank missiles, grad missiles, tank shells & ammunition.

Additionally, the ISIS propaganda arm, Amaq, published a new map of ISIL gains in the Palmyra offensive. According to Twitter reports, ISIS fighters are now pushing towards the T4 airbase.

As Reuters adds, the Islamic State attack on Palmyra, 200 km (120 miles) to the southeast of Aleppo, threatens to inflict a serious blow on both Damascus and Moscow. Syrian state radio reported the army had evacuated its positions inside Palmyra, whose Roman-era ruins have become an emblem of the conflict. They were redeploying around the city.

As today’s Palmyra fiasco shows, and as analysts have warned, even if Assad defeats the main rebellion, he may still face years of guerrilla insurgency and bombing attacks as he tries to reassert his authority.

Islamic State seized Palmyra in May 2015, one of its last major conquests after nearly a year of advances in Syria and neighboring Iraq that took advantage of the region’s chaos. Its destruction of some of the best-known ruins and killing of the leading archaeologist in the city provoked global outrage and the army’s recapture of Palmyra was presented by Damascus and Moscow as vindicating Russia’s entry into the war.

  Islamic State has suffered a string of setbacks since late last year, losing its once long stretch of territory on the border with Turkey, an important source of supplies and recruits, as well as the city of Manbij.

The group is fighting an assault on its most important possession in Iraq, the city of Mosul. It is also under attack north of Raqqa, its Syrian capital, following a series of air strikes that have killed some of its most important leaders.

Russian news agencies reported that air strikes had killed 300 militants overnight near Palmyra but that more than 4,000 fighters had still managed to launch the attack on the city.