Tag Archives: NAFTA

Aug 5 2021

An Honest Explanation About Joe Biden Inflation, and It Has Nothing to do With COVID


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 4, 2021 | Sundance | 43 Comments

Repost from June by Request – Several people have written to CTH for an economic review of our current status. Below this post are two primary precursor articles [Primary One and Primary Two] which outline the economic dynamic in play, and how we can look forward with accuracy to what is likely to happen. Despite the deflective talking points by the professional financial pundits, this massive spike in inflation is entirely predictable due to Biden economic policy and Biden monetary policy.

Keep in mind, the FED already said in April they would “support inflation”, that’s because – while they will not say it openly, they know there’s no way to stop it. The massive inflation is a direct result of the multinational agenda of the Biden administration; it’s a feature not a flaw, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with COVID. Also keep in mind the first group to admit what is to come are banks, specifically Bank of America, because the monetary policy is the cause.

There’s no way around this. Despite the pundit and financial class selling a counter-narrative, home prices will crash and unemployment will go up. I know this is directly against the current talking points, but the statistical reality is clear. CTH was the first place that said months ago that new home sales will plummet, that is starting to happen right now. There’s no way for it not to happen, the big picture tells us why.

You might remember, when President Trump initiated tariffs against China (steel, aluminum and more), Southeast Asia (product specific), Europe (steel, aluminum and direct products), Canada (steel, aluminum, lumber and dairy specifics), the financial pundits screamed at the top of their lungs that consumer prices were going to skyrocket. They didn’t. CTH knew they wouldn’t because essentially those trading partners responded in the exact same way the U.S. did decades ago when the import/export dynamic was reversed.

Trump’s massive, and in some instances targeted, import tariffs against China, SE Asia, Canada and the EU not only did not increase prices, the prices of the goods in the U.S. actually dropped. Trump’s policies led the largest deflation in consumer prices in decades. At the same time, Trump’s domestic economic policies drove employment and wages higher than any time in the past forty years. With Trump’s policies we were in an era where job growth was strong, wages were rising and consumer prices were falling.  The net result was more disposable income for the middle class, more demand for stuff, and ultimately that’s why the U.S. economy was so strong.

♦Going Deep – To retain their position, China and the EU responded to U.S. tariffs by devaluing their currency as an offset to higher prices. It started with China, because their economy is so dependent on exports to the U.S.

China first started subsidizing the targeted sectors hit by tariffs. However, as the Chinese economy was under pressure, they stopped purchasing industrial products from the EU, that slowed the EU economy and made the impact of U.S. tariffs, later targeted in the EU direction, more impactful.

When China (total communist control over their banking system) devalued their currency to avoid Tariff price increase, it had an unusual effect. The cost of all Chinese imports dropped, not just on the tariff goods. Imported stuff from China dropped in price at the same time the U.S. dollar was strong. This meant it took less dollars to import the same amount of Chinese goods; and those goods were at a lower price. As a result, we were importing deflation…. the exact opposite of what the financial pundits claimed would happen.

In response to a lessening of overall economic activity, the EU then followed the same approach as China. The EU was already facing pressure from the exit of the U.K. from the EU system; so when the EU central banks started pumping money into their economy and offsetting with subsidies, they essentially devalued the euro. The outcome for U.S. importers was the same as the outcome for U.S-China importers. We began importing deflation from the EU side.

In the middle of this there was a downside for U.S. exporters. With China and the EU devaluing their currency the value of the dollar increased. This made purchases from the U.S. more expensive. U.S. companies who relied on exports (lots of agricultural industries and raw materials) took a hit from higher export prices. However, and this part is really interesting, it only made those companies more dependent on domestic sales for income. With less being exported, there was more product available in the U.S for domestic purchase…. this dynamic led to another predictable outcome, even lower prices for U.S. consumers.

From 2017 through early 2020 U.S. consumer prices were dropping. We were in a rare place where deflation was happening. Combine lower prices with higher wages, and you can easily see the strength within the U.S. economy. For the rest of the world this seemed unfair, and indeed they cried foul – especially Canada.

However, this was America First in action. Middle-class Americans were benefiting from a Trump reversal of 40 years of economic policies like those that created the rust belt.

Industries were investing in the U.S., and that provided leverage for Trump’s trade policies to have stronger influence. If you wanted access to this expanding market, those foreign companies needed to put their investment money into the U.S. and create even more U.S. jobs. This was an expanding economic spiral where Trump was creating more and more economic pies. Every sector of the U.S. economy was benefiting more, but the blue-collar working class was gaining the most benefit of all.

♦ REVERSE THIS… and you now understand where we are with inflation. The Joebama economic policies are exactly the reverse. The monetary policy that pumps money into into the U.S. economy via COVID bailouts and ever-increasing federal spending drops the value of the dollar and makes the dependency state worse.

With the FED pumping money into the U.S. system, the dollar value plummets. At the same time,  JoeBama dropped tariff enforcement to please the Wall Street multinational corporations and banks that funded his campaign. Now the value of the Chinese and EU currency increases. This means it costs more to import products, and that is the primary driver of price increases in consumer goods.

Simultaneously, a lower dollar means cheaper exports for the multinationals (Big AG and raw materials). China, SE Asia and even the EU purchase U.S. raw materials at a lower price. That means less raw material in the U.S. which drives up prices for U.S. consumers. It is a perfect storm.  Higher costs for imported goods and higher costs for domestic goods (food). Combine this dynamic with massive increases in energy costs from ideological policy, and that’s fuel on a fire of inflation.

Annualized inflation is now estimated to be around 8 percent, and it will likely keep increasing. This is terrible for wage earners in the U.S. who are now seeing no wage growth and higher prices. Real wages are decreasing by the fastest rate in decades. We are now in a downward spiral where your paycheck buys less. As a result, consumer middle-class spending contracts. Eventually, this means housing prices drop because people cannot afford higher mortgage payments.

Gasoline costs more (+50%), food costs more (+10% at a minimum) and as a result, real wages drop; disposable income is lost. Ultimately this is the cause of Stagflation. A stagnant economy and inflation. None of this is caused by COVID-19. All of this is caused by economic policy and monetary policy sold under the guise of COVID-19.

This inflationary period will not stall out until the U.S. economy can recover from the massive amount of federal spending. If the spending continues, the dollar continues to be weak, as a result the inflationary period continues. It is a spiral that can only be stopped if the policies are reversed…. and the only way to stop these insane policies is to get rid of the Wall Street democrats and republicans who are constructing them.

Hope that makes sense, and love to all.

~ Sundance

Jul 13 2021

Wells Fargo – Banking Crisis?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis Re-Posted Jul 12, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

It has begun. Wells Fargo has told all its customers that it is shuttering down ALL personal lines of credit. The bank has made it clear that it is shutting down ALL existing personal lines of credit and it will no longer offer such products. That includes revolving credit lines, which typically let users borrow $3,000 to $100,000. The bank used to sell these products as a way to consolidate higher-interest credit card debt or to pay for home renovations. This also included avoiding overdraft fees on linked checking accounts.

Customers have been given a 60-day notice that their accounts will be shut down. Wells Fargo has declined to comment when asked by Reuters. Previously, Wells Fargo suspended home equity loans, claiming it was due to the economic uncertainty with COVID. Wells Fargo has been struggling with a tarnished reputation following a series of consumer financial scandals. In 2016, the Wells Fargo account fraud scandal led to the resignation of CEO John Stumpf and resulted in fines of $185 million by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Despite the fact that Wells Fargo Bank likes to portray it was formed on March 18, 1852, the truth is that it was simply a freight company back then. It was in New York City where Henry Wells and William G. Fargo joined with several other investors to launch their idea of a freight company to cover the trade between the East and West Coasts. What sparked the idea was the discovery of gold in California in 1849. They recognized that there would be a demand for cross-country shipping. Wells Fargo & Company was formed to take advantage of this great opportunity.

In July 1852, Wells Fargo & Co began its first loads of freight from the East Coast to mining camps scattered throughout northern California. The company contracted with independent stagecoach companies to provide the fastest possible transportation and delivery of gold dust, mail, and other various valuable freight. Wells Fargo began buying gold dust, selling paper bank drafts, and providing loans to help fuel California’s growing economy.

In 1857, the business was so profitable that Wells, Fargo & Co. formed the Overland Mail Company, known as the “Butterfield Line,” which provided regular mail and passenger service. The company earned a reputation as a trustworthy and reliable business. It adopted as its logo the classic stagecoach which became famous even in later movies. Wells Fargo & Co. would also send an employee on horseback to deliver or pick up a message or package which became known as the Pony Express.

There were other competitors. John Bamber first advertised July 12, 1858, as the only authorized for daily and weekly newspapers. On September 9, 1870, Bamber incorporated as “Bamber Express Co.” with four other trustees.  Then on January 1, 1874, a change in ownership was announced. On July 6, 1874, it was announced that Whitney & Co. Express had purchased the company.

Wells Fargo & Co. began a merger and acquisition taking over other Pony Express and stagecoach lines. Wells Fargo took over the Overland Mail Company in 1860. Six years later, Holladay Express was added. By this time,  Wells Fargo & Co emerged and the leader in transportation in the West. When the transcontinental railroad was completed three years later, the company began using the railroad to transport its freight. In 1905, the company split whereas the freight business stood separately and they embarked on banking. Wells Fargo took over the Nevada National Bank and established new headquarters in San Francisco. By 1910, the freight company was covering 6,000 locations from the Eastern urban centers connecting them to the Midwest farmers and then ranchers and miners from Texas to California as well as the Pacific Northwest where the lumber mills operated.

During World War I, the U.S. government nationalized Wells Fargo’s shipping routes and combined them with the railroads into the American Railway Express. This actually terminated Wells, Fargo & Co. as a transportation and delivery business. The banking side was hit by the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, but the vaults held up while the building collapsed. After World War II, the Wells Fargo Bank American Trust Company reduced its name to just Wells Fargo Bank in 1962.

Wells Fargo from its split which was decided in 1904, peaked on the 112-year cycle in 2016. While it elected two of the near-term Yearly sell signals, the first long-term resides at $28.80. A year-end closing below that will be the kiss of death for Wells Fargo.

Jul 9 2021

Soros is NOT Targeting the Dollar


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 9, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I believe there is a guy on YouTube ripping you off and claiming Soros is now targeting the dollar which he will destroy just as he did to the pound. Is Soros even capable of that? You said he was just the lead guy on that for the club. Care to comment?

DH

ANSWER: Anyone claiming Soros is now targeting the dollar is absolute garbage. The entire pound issue was that it was a FIXED rate in the European Rate Mechanism. It was a cheap play. If you were wrong, you lost nothing because it was a fixed exchange rate. Soros would NEVER go against a floating currency. He would be wiped off the face of the Earth. This is total nonsense. If this is their sales pitch to buy Bitcoin or something, they could face 20 years in jail. It is totally FALSE advertising — PERIOD!

Jul 9 2021

When Inflation is really Deflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Jul 9, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Why is the Fed doing so much Reverse Repo? Do you think it will hit $2 trillion?

JE

ANSWER: I understand that people seem to be talking up the reverse repo activity as doom and gloom. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates and boosted the return to fight inflation. The reverse repo facility takes in cash primarily from money-market funds, as well as government-sponsored companies and banks. This facility offered a return of zero percent to eligible users previously, and then the Fed moved it up to 0.05%, while at the same time lifting another rate, called the interest on excess reserves rate to 0.15% from 0.10%. The Fed is actually competing against the US Treasury in taking in cash, which is diverting it from government debt.

What the Fed does not understand because it is beyond their control are the international capital flows. Raising rates to fight domestic inflation is attracting capital from Europe, where banks are charged negative interest rates if they have excess cash. They open a branch in the USA and then send the excess cash to the state, and then they put it at the Fed. In this manner, the Fed has no idea how much money they are actually attracting globally.

I helped the Japanese lower their trade surplus by simply buying gold in New York, taking delivery, shipping it to London, and then selling it and starting all over again constantly. The trade statistics only measure dollars — not goods. You can buy a hot dog and have it delivered in London, and that too would reduce the trade surplus. It’s all a numbers game, and those in government have no ability to figure out the real world.

The statistics they created with Bretton Woods were all based on the currency which was fixed. So if you created more dollars, that was inflationary. But in a floating exchange rate system, if you create 10% more dollars but the dollar declines by 20%, guess what? It ain’t inflation but deflation!

People’s thinking has been compromised by the very way the government sets up everything. We would allocate trade at our firm according to the flag the company flew. That showed the US never had a trade deficit. It eas US companies setting up offshore and importing their own goods. I testified before Congress on all of this in 1996. So much for trade wars of misguided ideas of the world we live in.

The Fed is raising rates trying to soak up excess cash in the system BECAUSE that cash is not going into long-term bonds. Instead, we see even mortgage rates have declined under 2% because capital is shifting from PUBLIC to PRIVATE. Major capital has been turning to the mortgage market for there they have collateral wherewith government debt they have nothing but a political promise.

Yes, there will be others now claiming this is their idea. But unless you actually made the trades and really consulted with governments to solve problems, you will never come up with the answer without experience. Thank you to all the people who point out those who plagiarize what I write like clockwork. All I can say is that reveals people who are just not trustworthy. So, let’s see how long it takes others to claim they thought this up in the shower.

Jul 3 2021

White House Brags July 4th Groceries Cheaper This Year, We Will Save 16 Cents on Our Cookouts


Posted originally o the conservative tree house on July 2, 2021 | Sundance | 479 Comments

This is not a spoof.   This is an actual broadcast from the White House Twitter account.  Apparently the Biden administration has hired the same public relations firm used by North Korea to manage their messaging:

Yes comrades, pay no attention to the actual receipts you receive from the local grocery store. Please ignore massive price increases in food you might be experiencing at the supermarket.  These things are simply illusions.  Despite the official inflation records on food pricing provided by the U.S. government, Bureau of Labor and Statistics [SEE HERE, Table 7], according to those who control the oval office our food is actually cheaper this year.

Comrades, we must appreciate the efforts of the Democrat People’s Republic of Krazy (DPRK) and congratulate the Biden administration for achieving a record-breaking new level of absurdity in the distribution of propaganda.  Smiles everyone, smiles…. you saved 16 cents.

On a serious note, this extreme level of gaslighting only highlights how the White House must be very concerned about what is about to happen to them in the next election cycle.  Even the most devout leftists are calling out the Biden administration in response to this tweet.  [Go Look At The Comments]

Even Baghdad Blitzer cannot pull this con off….

Jun 29 2021

Rarest Roman Coin of All Time


Armstrong Economics Blog/Collectibles Re-Posted Jun 29, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; What is the rarest Roman coin? I figure nobody really knows that answer better than you.

PH

ANSWER: There are there major coins of which only one exists in private hands. They are the champion of all Roman coins – Saturninus. There is one other in existence, and that is in the Louvre. Then there is a gold coin of Leontius, the Isaurian Usurper (484-488 AD). Only four coins exist, but three are in museums.

The third rarest coin of which only one is known is that of a denarius with the portrait of Caracalla on one side and Plautilla on the other. Caracalla was a deranged and hateful emperor. As soon as his father died, he had a brother who killed him while in his mother’s arms. He then had portraits of Geta removed.

Plautilla was the daughter of the powerful Praetorian Prefect Plautianus, a close friend of Septimus Severus. Plautilla was married to Caracalla in 202 AD against his will. Caracalla literally hated his wife and vowed to have her killed when he became emperor, a promise which he would most certainly keep. In 205 AD, Caracalla first had to remove her father on the grounds of treason, which Caracalla arranged.

Caracalla then sent Plautilla to be banished to the Lipari Islands. Later, Plautilla was murdered on the orders of Caracalla in 212 AD during the purge which followed the murder of his brother Geta.

We can see surviving portraits of his family where he erased the image of his brother. Likewise, his hatred for Plautilla was so renowned that the extreme rarity of this lone surviving coin stands as a testament to Caracalla was also eradicating existing coins that show him with his most hated wife.

Therefore, while individual coins of Plautilla are fairly common, Caracalla appears to have recalled those showing him with his wife on the same coin. Other dynastic coin issues showed his brother was not recalled with as much fervor. Even the coinage of Geta is also fairly common. The number of individual coins of Geta and Plautilla most likely made such a recall impossible.

Therefore, each of these coins is unique. However, that does not mean they are of equal value. The Plautilla issue is probably worth $50,000 to $100,000. The Leontius aureus would bring probably $500,000 to $1 million. The Saturninus is far more important for this is the coin that changed history. Academic declared the book Historia Augusta was a fraud because it listed over 20 emperors during the short span of the early years of the 3rd century, which they never heard of. When the two gold coins of Saturninus were discovered in a dig in Egypt, that proved that Historica Augusta was real.

This coin today would most likely bring even $5 million. If ancient coins reach the level of American, then we should be looking at $18.8 million for this coin by comparison to the 1933 $20 gold coin, which is also unique.

Jun 25 2021

Can a Single Market Change Course & Nothing Else Happens?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Jun 25, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I believe as professors have taught Keynesian Economics, so too will we one day have Armstrongian Economic theory. My question to you sir is this, “Have you ever seen Socrates react to a singular event that made your computer model actually do a complete 180? Thanks for all you do! Your blog is the single most important source we have in the world today, BAR NONE!

RB

ANSWER: No, I have never seen that. Even when you look at the famous Buffett Silver Manipulation, note how gold did not follow. That was showing the market was manipulated and it was simply being pushed to the Monthly Reversals, all for a quick buck. Everything is connected. It is impossible to have one market that moves completely opposite, changing its trend, and nothing else happens. You can push a market between the Reversals. That I have seen. But you cannot change the trend.

The dollar, stocks market, gold, real estate, and commodities are all in sync. They are playing out a dance, and you need to step back to look at the whole rather than a single market. Only then will you see the connections.

Jun 16 2021

Real Estate – Alternative to Bonds


Armstrong Ecoomics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Jun 16, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: It has become impossible to buy houses between $300-$500,000 in the Orlando area. From a realtor, he said that Blackrock is buying everything and they rely on a famous forecaster who said real estate is the only way to earn income. He said he heard it was someone in Florida. Is that you?

HP

QUESTION #2: Is Vanguard and Blackrock part of the great reset fraud?

SB

QUESTION #3: With the revelation of Blackrock buying up single family homes and making homeownership and rentals unaffordable, what is the average person to do? My son and his family and my husband and I were getting ready to purchase homes to settle down in but have now been priced out of most markets and rentals are also hard to come by that we can afford. We live in California but are wanting to get out of Dodge.
Sharon

ANSWER: I am not a liberty to say who is and who is not our client. What I can confirm is that Blackrock has bought more than 20,000 homes in Florida under $500K. They are buying for cash and this is the result of artificially low interest rates. Central banks have created a disincentive for buying government bonds. This is going to come to a head and we will see interest rates rise because big money is looking at the return on renting out homes rather than investing in bonds.

This is not part of the Great Reset in saying you will own nothing. This is the shift from Public to Private. You cannot artificially lower interest rates to absurd levels under real risk and then expect them to remain there indefinitely when these pension and investment funds need higher returns. The good news to this trend is that it is resulting in the institutionalizing of the real estate market which is far better than the last attempt by creating mortgage-backed securities.

Socrates covers real estate around the world which has been part of our Institutional services. We have made this available to all levels of subscribers. We do have this broken down per state in the USA. We will be adding that to the general system because of the impact of this shifting from Public to Private in capital investment.

Jun 15 2021

Democrats Moving to Impose Wealth Tax – 5% of All Assets


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Jun 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

In Germany during December 1922, the last straw that broke the back of the German economy was a forced loan of 10% of all your assets. This destroyed the confidence that remained in the Weimar Republic and thereafter people withdrew the money from banks and started to convert to other currencies and to buy whatever tangible assets they could. Hyperinflation took off in 1923.

History repeats BECAUSE human nature remains the same. In an interview with The Hill, of course, it was a Democrat from New York Thomas Suozzi who said he’s in the early stages of looking at what he called a “patriot tax” which is really a WEALTH TAX that he is proposing to impose as a one-time surcharge of 2.5% on wealth between $50 million and $100 million and a 5% on wealth above $100 million.

This is NOT income – this is on assets. It will require full disclosure of all assets held globally with penalties of imprisonment and confiscation of assets if you lie. Note this is how they introduced the income tax in 1913. They always put the initial level above the average person. In 1913, the average annual wage was about $1,500. Making the income tax starting at $3,000 was to ensure the people would not worry about the rich.

They are doing this once again. True, I would not care if Bill Gates or George Soros had to pay 5% of their gross worth. But they throw that into their foundations which will not be taxed. My real concern is once they push this through, then it is one small step for the government to lower that to $1 million or $500,000. Even if you own a home that is $1 million and you have an $800,000 mortgage, you are taxed on the $1 million – not the net.

Still, many people will say anyone with $1 million can afford to pay 5%. But that includes all assets – the value of your home or business. He says they will give them 5 years to pay it. Why? Because this is on all gross assets that they will then appraise. They can say your home is now worth $1 million despite the fact you paid $250,000 so you have to pay 5% of that $1 million gross as well. We are talking about assets that not LIQUID meaning you then must sell things to pay the tax. This is how they destroy farmers. The inheritance tax forced the sale of land to pay the tax ultimately leading to big corporate farming.

So you wanted to know how to destroy an economy as fast as possible? All you have to do is impose a WEALTH TAX and watch what happens! You can double your money in the stock market, they want 5% to the total gross value. They could easily tax you on the maximum value of Bitcoin holdings during a given period. Do not count on any federal judge ruling in your favor. That will NEVER happen!

So this is just another nail in the coffin of the West and why China will emerge as the #1 world economy. The LEFT will destroy everything – it always ends up that way. That is neither my opinion nor a conspiracy theory. It is just history. The policies of the LEFT are prohibited by the Ten Commandments. Not only does this violate the freedom of religion, the same prohibition appears in other legal codes from ancient times proving that it was prohibited for good reason.

Jun 15 2021

Been There, Done That


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts RE-Posted Jun 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Are you familiar with that studies of pundits have shown that their forecasts are no better than chance. You seem to be in the category of what those studies at Penn University by Philip Tetlock called “superforecasters”. Would you care to comment on how you are right so often when others never are?

UT

ANSWER: I am not familiar with those studies on forecasting but it makes sense. The vast majority of forecasting is nothing more than opinion. That is why they are rarely correct. Even Barron’s took a shot at me because in 2010, the forecast was that we were entering a bull market with new highs on the horizon following the crash of 2007-2009. Of course, Barron’s never wrote another piece to say the forecast was correct. Barron’s acknowledged I had forecast the 1987 Crash. But they never reviewed everything.

The press likes pundits to talk opinion. They are not really interested in forecasting. If they were, they would do a serious article on all our forecasts concerning the methodology that has been correct for a single reason — history repeats. Socrates puts the entire world together and maps out the capital flows. Just follow the money — that will mean you will be far more correct than sticking your finger in the air to judge the direction of the wind.

Stone Age Grave

History repeats because human nature never changes throughout the millennium. We are a species that will never change because human nature remains the same since the dawn of time. There are Stone Age graves with people buried with dignity. The most amazing find so far of a Stone Age grave was of a female and two children hugging each other. They were carefully arranged in this position. This strongly indicated they had spiritual beliefs and cared for their dead, but most of all, it showed love.

Throughout millennia, people before recorded history showed how that they cared for one another. They also showed a consistent belief in the hereafter. There are even dozens of burials in the southwestern Siberian village of Staryi Tartas, where human remains were positioned in pairs facing each other. The rare couple burials are among 600 graves dating to between the 17th and 14th centuries BC from the Bronze Age Andronovo culture. Even in the Stone Age, there was respect for the dead shows love existed then as it does today among our species.

This respect has been a tradition in human communities that appears from the very beginning. But Socrates cannot answer that question. It can show the correlations with religions and demonstrate the similarities of cultures around a central belief system. It cannot confirm or deny the existence of an afterlife. That becomes opinion.

Human nature endures. We travel through time, and technology progresses with our knowledge. However, emotionally we remain very much the same. Society MUST move through these crash and burn periods. It is how we progress through history. We learn only through our mistakes — never our victories.

Therefore, the correct forecasts are not because of my personal opinion or some guess. Everything is based upon history and what that reveals is straightforward. Given the same circumstance, human nature will ALWAYS respond in the same manner, like an animal cornered will stand and fight even if it is a possum that normally plays dead. The future becomes understandable ONLY when you understand the past.