Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics
Re-Posted Sep 14, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
I have said this many times, when it comes to understanding interest rates Trump is speaking the standard mantra that people apply when it comes to interest rates. Trump is a borrower, not a lender. His bankruptcies were the result of the business cycle and he leverages himself to the hilt so when the recession comes, he gets in trouble and when it is booming he claims to be a fantastic investor. But he is no trader. He could have hedged the business cycle but did not.
This latest rant that interest rates should be lower illustrates he is a borrower and not a lender. Therefore, he views that lowering interest rates will be bullish when in fact lower interest rates wipe out the savers.
Sorry, I do not agree with this and more than 10-years of low to stupidly low interest rates have FAILED to reverse the economic declines in Europe or Japan. Europe is approaching its 13th year of economic recession. When we look at the German share market, the strongest in Europe, it still has not exceeded the 2000 high on the Price Index. So much for lower interest rates boosting the share market.
Hello President Trump! You better look for some REAL advisers.
Cameron Ortis, a director general with the Royal Canadian Mounted Police’s intelligence unit (RCMP), faces three charges of violating intelligence laws and leaking sensitive information. While the destination for his leaked intel is not revealed, his professional business profile shows he speaks “fluent mandarin Chinese“. So, connect the dots…
Obviously Justin from Canada wants to keep a tight lid on the spying compromise; and unfortunately, with the Canadian election a little more than a month away, the compliant state-run media are more than willing to try and downplay the issue.
OTTAWA (Reuters) – A top Canadian police intelligence officer has been charged with leaking secret information, authorities said on Friday, in what could be a major security breach.
Cameron Ortis, a director general with the Royal Canadian Mounted Police’s intelligence unit, faces three charges under a little-used 2012 security of information law.
“It is alleged he obtained, stored and processed sensitive information … with the intent to communicate that information with people he shouldn’t be communicating to,” federal prosecutor John MacFarlane told reporters outside Ottawa’s court house after Ortis was charged.
Sources with knowledge of national security investigations described Ortis as former RCMP Commissioner Bob Paulson’s most elite adviser on issues related to national security. Paulson was in office from 2011-2017.
“Operationally, this could be very, very bad,” said Stephanie Carvin, an assistant professor and security expert at Ottawa’s Carleton University.
Canada is part of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network with United States, Britain, New Zealand and Australia. (read more)
Is it really a surprise to anyone?…
Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts
Re-Posted Sep 13, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I mentioned that you said the stock market rallies with rising rates and declines with lower rates to an analyst. He said you were wrong and everyone knows that is not true and President Trump just came out calling on the Fed to lower rates to zero of negative.
You have only showed 1929 as your example. Can you support your argument otherwise?
REPLY: Well skeptical, we need people like you on the opposite side. It is not my job to convince you. Trump is a borrower and only sees the world through his personal experience. The people with savings and pension funds are being wiped out. That is a statement he has made which is HIGHLYdangerous and proves I do not advise Trump which seems to be a Democratic accusation running around.
I do not care what period you look at. This notorious group of “everyone” illustrates that if you tell a lie long enough, you yourself will believe what you are saying. These people constituting everyone just repeat what others say without any verification whatsoever. They even teach this nonsense in school. I had one student who said his professor was teaching the same nonsense.
I fully understand that the talking heads on TV also portray the stock market from the borrower’s viewpoint just as Trump has done. Not everyone borrows and the big money does not. So if people believe what they want to believe. I prefer to assemble the largest possible database, correlate everything, and see how the world REALLY ticks. So believe what you want. There are always two-sides to a market so I fully respect that it is ABSOLUTELY vital that the major be on the wrong side for that is what makes the markets move.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Japan
Re-Posted Sep 11, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: When I saw your blog saying 2019 will be really crazy and chaotic year for Japan (Feb 2019), I was curious how bad it could be. It is always amazing to see how you and your Socrates turning point manifest in the real world. I was astonished when Japan restricted exports of critical materials used in South Korea’s high-tech semiconductor industry right after G20 Osaka Summit. A trade war is generally initiated by a deficit country. This decision was not only opposite but might lead to devastate their own industry and disrupt the world IT markets. It seems to be a political stance for the upcoming Japan Upper House election but connects further deep into friction between Korea and Japan history. Insane year for Japan indeed, thank you for your great work and efforts providing new perspectives to the world.
Q: With all that sovereign debt how do you see the future of Japan will be?
ANSWER: Our forecast was covering economics, which then causes political responses. As I previously reported, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda publicly stated that it may maintain ultra-low rates for a further period of well over a year. However, he also warned against the idea of propping up the economy through unlimited money or printing to finance government spending.
The Bank of Japan is trapped. Its holdings of the national debt have reached nearly 50%. The BOJ modified its forward guidance or pledge on how it will guide future monetary policy. It stated that current very low interest rates will continue at least until the spring of 2020. Without the BOJ buying government debt, there is ZERO hope that interest rates will rise dramatically and a financial crisis will be in the making. The BOJ will keep rates low for an extended period of time for they have no choice. There is no way out of this nightmare and the real inflationary cycle comes when the majority wake up and realize that the emperor has no clothes, and that means the central bankers worldwide.
There remains a capital flight from Japan and the more they keep these policies up, our model does not show that their economy will recover. We are looking at the absolute low perhaps forming as early and the middle of 2020 but more likely into mid-2021. This will prompt the Monetary Crisis to spark political change.
Posted Sep 10, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
A number of people have asked me to comment on Bloom’s speech on the floor of the European Parliament. He is incorrect in attributing the insolvency of the European banks to fractional banking. They have blown themselves up because of derivative exposure, not actual lending.
The US banks survived and have prospered BECAUSE of TARP. The US government bought the toxic financial waste they created so the bankers got away with it again. In Europe, the design of the euro was to deny creating a national European debt, therefore there could be no bailout because that would mean the money would flow from one country to the another to bail out their banks. Hence, European banks still have the tonic financial waste on their books from 2007.
The central banks are ARTIFICIALLY manipulating interest rates down to try to save the banks, but this Quantitative Easing has not only failed, it has set the stage for the next financial disaster — the collapse of government pensions and private pension funds. These funds are regulated and it is mandated that they have government debt for that is “risk free,” so they claim.
The bankers sell the government debt so the politicians cannot let the bankers fail for they also fund their elections. This entire mess is not going to be held off much longer. We will be looking at this in great detail at the WEC in Orlando (Oct. 25-26).
If this simple procedure is true, wow… It would mean all of last week’s parliamentary teeth gnashing by the usurping Never-Brexit MP’s was essentially irrelevant.
According to a Reuters report, Prime Minister Boris Johnson simply needs to attach a letter to the Brexit delay legislation saying the U.K. government officially does not request any extension beyond October 31st. Then ignore it. That was easy.
Johnson’s advisers held a meeting on Sunday to counter the strategy to prevent the British parliament’s attempts at enforcing a three-month Brexit extension if no new deal is agreed, the newspaper reported.
A plan under consideration would see Johnson sending a letter alongside the request to extend Article 50 setting out that the government does not want any delay after Oct. 31, according to the report. (read more)
The prior remarks by President Trump (last week) now take on a new context:
Q Have you been following the situation in London with Boris Johnson and the Brexit vote?
THE PRESIDENT: Well, Boris is a friend of mine. And he’s — he’s going at it. There’s no question about it. He’s in there — I watched him this morning. He’s in there fighting.
And he knows how to win. Boris knows how to win. Don’t worry about him. He’s going to be okay. (link)
As if, on cue:
CTH – […] The problem for China, and ultimately for Germany, is that Trump’s trade reset has stopped a big amount of U.S. wealth from arriving in Beijing. Simultaneously, Beijing is countering Trump’s tariffs by devaluing their currency. The rebound economic impact is doubled. China has: (1) less income; and (2) less value within their own currency.
Where does this dynamic show up?
…. Anytime China is going to buy something.
China’s currency devaluation makes their exports cheaper; however, at the same time it makes any of their imports more expensive. As a consequence China buys less… and that now exhibits in lower purchases of German stuff. See how that happens?
So yeah, the ramifications for Merkel’s German economy -twice as bad as originally forecast- are based on China fighting Trump. The fact that China is bleeding cash, and has simultaneously dropped the value of their currency, means China can’t buy stuff.
All of those nations who were counting on Chinese purchases are now going bananas. This is why the multinationals blame Donald Trump… and to make matters even worse – the U.S. economy is thriving, while they watch from the sidelines. It’s a delicious dynamic. (read more)
Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics
Re-Posted Sep 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Back during the Great Depression, there were people who theorized that gold hoarding was preventing economic recovery. There is always this same theory that people who save hoarding their money and are not spending it results in the lack of a recovery suppressing demand. This theory has been around for a very long time. It assumes a recovery is always blocked by people hoarding their money and saving for a rainy day.
Back during the American Civil War, the federal government issued paper currency for the first time after the Revolution. Much of this currency paid interest. Some were in the form of virtually circulating bonds with coupons for the interest payments. Some were backed by gold. Others offered a table on the reverse providing a schedule. The interest baring notes remained valid currency, but the interest expired within a specific time period. Hence, one would redeem the note since it would no longer pay interest beyond a specific date.
The rumbling behind the curtain I am hearing is a growing idea of making the currency in Europe simply expire. I have explained before that in Europe currency routinely expires – even in Britain. The United States has never canceled its currency so a note from the Civil War is still legal tender. But that is not the case in Europe.
Europeans are accustomed to having their money simply expire. This is not limited to paper currency. They also cancel the coins. The proposal being whispered in the dark halls of Europe is that perhaps the way to impose negative rates to force people to spend is to just cancel all the currency and authorize only small notes for pocket change. They want everyone to be forced to use bank cards and this is the new theory to revitalize the economy.
The chart patterns for the Euro are about as long-term bearish as one can imagine. The problem facing the world economy is this idea that they can even FORCE people to spend their savings recklessly as the government does. Canceling the euro may be a drastic and desperate step, but it is being proposed as an alternative to deep negative interest rates which have failed to work for more than 10 years. The middle ground proposes a paper currency with expiration dates.
Either way, the risk of a profound dollar rally remains in the wings. The powers behind the curtain desperately want to defeat Trump for they know he would NEVER cancel the American currency. To pull that off, they need a career politician. Joe Biden would be perfect. He might just sign whatever bill is put before him and then take a nap. It is ironic, but there would be a lot of Americans who would wake up and want Trump bank after that one. Joe would be too tired to tweet.