May Survives No-Confidence Vote but has until Monday 21st to present New Proposal


The British pound moved higher following the British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government narrowly surviving a no confidence vote brought by the opposition over the handling of BREXIT. The vote was narrow with May winning by just 19 votes. Our sources were correct that she would survive. However, while the 21st seems to be a target date of our models, the prime minister  has just three days to propose an alternative deal – that is January 21st. I find it curious how the computer picks weeks in advance of political events the targets for market movements that are driven by politics. There is clearly something beyond the headlines that the computer picks up.

Despite Losing Vote for Brexit Plan, Prime Minister Theresa May Wins Confidence Vote…


After losing a key vote to advance her Brexit plan, the U.K. Parliament held a confidence vote.  Despite the lost vote 24 hours earlier, British MPs voted 325 to 306 affirming their confidence in May’s government.

Prime Minister May delivered remarks on the past two days from 10 Downing Street.

Central Banks v Clearing


Delos, First Central Bank

QUESTION: Dear Martin

Wonder if you have any insights as to the history of the bank clearing process.
Was the clearing process created mainly so banks could play games and earn interest with peoples’ money
with the reasoning that it was to prevent money laundering?

With technological advances today, one can accept an hour or two for automatic name and account number checks to happen
but 3-7 days seems ridiculous.

Any insights to the creation of the clearing process would be enlightening.

Thank you again

KW

ANSWER: The function of bank clearing began with giro-banking, which originated in the Temple of Delos in Greece. The term refers to the circulation of money. It originated where you could write a check to one person and transfer the payment to their account at the same bank. Effectively, in ancient Greece, you would have an account at the Temple in Delos and instruct a transfer to their account in the Temple. The Romans adopted this concept and thus Roman banking was born.

A central bank emerged after the Dark Ages in the early modern history as a government or state-owned banks. The Dutch were pioneers and financial innovators who not only created this state banking concept, but they also invented insurance. The Wisselbank was the first such bank in Amsterdam which was founded in the Dutch Republic during 1609. The Wisselbank became the model of the central banking system and it spread throughout Europe; first in 1668 in Sweden known as the Sveriges Riksbank and then the Bank of England in 1694.

When smaller private banks began to pop up, the state-owned banks emerged as clearing banks where transfers between the accounts at the central bank took place the same as they did between accounts in ancient Delos.

The Wisselbank actually collapsed in 1790 after it was revealed that the deposits have been used secretly to fund the Dutch East India Company. The manipulation was that they represented themselves as just holding money for safe-keeping. They did not lend money out. So when the bank failed and they had been using the money to fund the Dutch East India Company, the city had to bail out the bank and stand behind the losses.

To eliminate cash, the ECB has a secret project to provide instantaneous transfers for each transaction. Therefore, the central bank was simply a state-owned bank whereas a clearing bank was one where all banks must clear transactions

BREXIT Deal of PM Down in Defeat


Prime Minister Theresa May now faces a no-confidence vote after her BREXIT plan was defeated to be submitted by opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. Nonetheless, our sources there say that she will probably survive as the Conservatives who rejected her plan are not likely to vote for a no-confidence motion realizing that a Corbyn victory would more or less signal it is time to leave Britain on the next flight.  Corbyn’s socialist policies would only put Britain in a heated competition in Europe with France as to who could go bankrupt first. Macron realizes that socialism has destroyed the French economy, but he has no real support to try to change that policy.

This defeat of her plan for BREXIT only increases the chances of a hard-exit come March. The talk both in London and Brussels is all about postponing the inevitable. The idea is gaining ground now that the UK should seek to delay its departure from the EU. The SNP has called for extra time for an extension of article 50 beyond March 2019 so that the government could “go back and negotiate a better deal”. Meanwhile, those who have supported of a second referendum, such as the Conservative former cabinet minister Justine Greening, is joined by others behind the curtain who believe that the exit clause could be extended until the end of July 2019 to allow time for another vote.

Our timing models still show March and May as the key targets this year.

 

Theresa May Brexit Deal Resoundingly Rejected by U.K. Parliament….


The British Parliament resoundingly rejected the proposed Brexit deal put forth by Prime Minister Theresa May earlier today.  Government officials on both sides of the contentious economic argument, globalists and nationalists, found little to support in May’s insufferable attempt to split the baby.  The vote was 432-Nay, and 202-Yea.

(Via Fox News) British lawmakers on Tuesday rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s proposed deal to exit the European Union by a resounding 432-202 vote, dealing a major setback to negotiations just 10 weeks before the United Kingdom is set to withdraw from the international body.

The vote leaves the country with no clear plan to implement Brexit and raises questions about May’s future as prime minister. The rejection was widely expected and dealt the British government its biggest defeat in the House of Commons in more than a century.

[…] The deal was doomed by deep opposition from both sides of the divide over U.K.’s place in the bloc. Pro-Brexit lawmakers say the deal will leave Britain bound indefinitely to EU rules, while pro-EU politicians favor an even closer economic relationship with Europe.

The government and opposition parties ordered lawmakers to cancel all other plans to be on hand for the crucial vote. Labour legislator Tulip Siddiq delayed the scheduled cesarean birth of her son so she could attend, arriving in a wheelchair.

As lawmakers debated in the House of Commons chamber, outside there was a cacophony of chants, drums and music from rival bands of pro-EU and pro-Brexit protesters. One group waved blue-and-yellow EU flags, the other brandished “Leave Means Leave” placards. (read more)

 

The 1943 Copper Penny a Flop? Or just Over Hype by Heritage Auctions?


QUESTION: I read that the Heritage auction of the penny they said would bring $1.7 million was a flop. Any indication as to why? Or is it just the firm trying to pawn something for big bucks?

HK

ANSWER: I have no idea why Heritage would have claimed the coin would bring $1.7 million. It is not that rare. There are about 40 to 45 known 1943 copper cents from the Philadelphia Mint. The general assumption is that they were struck by accident when there were some copper blank planchets still remaining in the press hopper when production began on the new steel pennies.

Now as far as sales go, there was a 1943 copper cent which was first offered for sale back in 1958, which sold for more than $40,000, or so it was claimed. Subsequently, there was one sold for only $10,000 at an ANA convention in 1981. The highest amount ever paid for this error previously was $82,500 back in 1996.

There was only one copper 1943 penny known from the Denver Mint which did sell they claim for $1.7 million by Legend Numismatics of Lincroft, New Jersey. I would not guarantee that price personally. US coins tend to get really hyped. This unique coin, not publicly known to exist until 1979, was certified PCGS MS64BN. If Heritage was claiming their penny should bring $1.7 million which was from the far more common hoard of Philadelphia, I really question such expertise. The Heritage example sold for only $204,000, which is a modest advance over the last sale of $82,500 back in 1996.

The culture in American coins is strikingly different. American collectors seem to prize errors. A brockage is an error coin where one side is normal, but the other side instead of the reverse displays the obverse again, but incuse or in a negative mirror-like form. Brockage errors are caused when an already minted coin sticks to the coin die and impresses onto another blank pressing a mirror image of the other coin into the blank.

Brockage errors coins are rare. However, they do not bring significant premiums. A nice Augustus(27BC-14AD) denarius may bring $1,000+ whereas the Brokage will bring about $500 as illustrated above. Here is an extremely rare official Roman die of Emperor Tiberius (14-37AD) with precisely this problem of a silver denarius stuck to the reverse die.

This die of Tiberius is UNIQUE and was discarded because of the brokage error coins it would have produced which would have appeared like the Augustus denarius illustrated above. There are only about 12 official Roman dies that have survived.

Here is Another genuine Roman die of an extremely rare Emperor Gordian I (238AD) who reigned for only 21 days. Obviously, this die was discarded because he did not last in office very long.

There is a completely different culture outside of American coins. Such an error would never bring such premiums. In ancient coins, the premiums attained are for high quality.

The Coming Launch of Socrates


QUESTION: Marty,
Back in 2015 when they closed the Chicago MERC after 167 years, you did a piece about how flashing screens do not provide the same “feel” as tape watching and floor trading. You also mentioned in that piece that “after Socrates, you will recreate something you always wanted to do” in relation to bringing “feel” back into trading.
My question is; given all the directions you are being pulled- is this still something you aspire to undertake?
I grew up tape watching, and despise blinking screens…it’s a lost art and would welcome anything you might undertake in this area.
Rw

ANSWER: Absolutely. We are getting ready for the first launch very soon. The intention is to expand the system to intraday. We are in negotiations with a data-provider to make the system live intraday with reversals and timing on an hourly basis. Trust me. It has been this initial launch that has been delayed by banks changing rules causing us to have to re-write the payment systems three times. Then we have completely different rules for outside North America so it required then setting up another whole new payment system. Then we have been having to set up yet a third for China. This has all been driven by this Hunt for Taxes.

It will be that intraday version that will be sound. Also in Phase-Two of our launch, we will be looking at providing a download version that will link back into our system so you can just talk to it and it will answer. We just cannot do that level of sophistication over the internet.

Germany Slips into Recession Following the Economic Confidence Model


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; Your ECM has been amazingly accurate. Not only did real estate peak, but it is now official, Germany is in a recession.

Great job

HW

REPLY: There is an accurate business cycle that unfolds but you must step back and observe it from a global perspective. The Economic Confidence Model has a long track record.  The numbers are shocking. For 8 out of 12 months in 2018, German production has declined. On average, manufacturing declined 4.1% in November and energy production decline 3.1% in November. Even new construction has declined 1.7%.

May EU Elections Promising to be Major Issue


Two more politicians in France have abandoned Macron and joined the right party of LePen ahead of the May European elections. Our sources in France are clearly revealing that the Yellow Vest movement has had a profound impact on politics. Macron’s promises to raise taxes on the rich are falling short because that just never seems to result in lower taxes for anyone else.

Our models are shaping up to show May as the major turning point here in 2019. This will have a profound impact on European share markets as well as the currency. Meanwhile, the EU is really at war with Poland and its policies have been outright deliberately intent on punishing Poland. This is leading to the development of a new coalition causing Ital and Poland to join together against Brussels to form their own anti-EU league.

Yellow Vest Movement Spreads to Australia & Poland


We are witnessing the Yellow Vest Movement now also spreading to Australia. We are seeing the rise there and in Canada also against Fake News that the media is desperately fighting Trump on who now label him an idiot in headlines. We are also witnessing a backlash against taking in the Muslim claimed refugees from Syria in Australia as well. It is not a matter of race, but culture. People who traveled to Paris from the USA this summer have often returned with horror stories of being robbed on the street, cell phones, jewelry, purses being stolen by people on motorcycles. Muslim women begging on every corner of the Champs-Élysées. The culture clash is the problem. These people cannot speak the language and lack skills for employment for the most part. Immigrants historically seek economic opportunity – not handouts. Last November, Merkel was offering cash to the refugees to leave Germany it was getting that bad. Now she is willing to pay one year’s rent back home to leave Germany.

The Green groups that have taken over the UN are frantic fearing that they want to avoid the violent clashes that have rocked France from becoming a “je suis Trump” (I’m Trump) moment for against climate change. It was the higher global warming fuel taxes and other environmental efforts that sparked the “yellow-vests” protests that have forced Pres­ident Emmanuel Macron into ­retreat. In Canada, the Yellow Vests are also growing over environmental sanctions that block pipelines and creating employment in the energy industry which is also lurking behind a growing separatist movement in Alberta. The Yellow Vest Movement has hit Poland for all the same reasons. In Egypt, the government has restricted the sale of yellow vests in hope of preventing the spread of the movement there as well. This is turning into a clash against the Global Warming Crowd. The environmentalists now fear that the Yellow Vest movement will engulf all of Europe as their agenda has been to raise taxes and lower the standard of living in addition to the birth rate.