Kennedy – Roosevelt & Corruption?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I had always heard that Kennedy made a fortune on Scotch. My question is, where they booze runners during the Prohibition?

Thank you

GR

ANSWER: No. But they actually used Roosevelt to secure that lucrative import trade of Scotch – my favorite drink. Joe Kennedy traveled to London in 1934 on the steam-driven ocean liner, the SS Europa. While he brought his wife with him he also brought James Roosevelt (1907 – 1991), the American president’s oldest son. The trip was portrayed as a please vacation, but bringing the President’s son was the clear signal it was not a vacation.

Kennedy’s main prize would be to gain the British rights to send Scotch whiskey, gin, and other imported liquors. He knew based upon inside information that Prohibition would be ended. Joe brought the president’s 25-year-old son to help organize a private visit with Winston Churchill.  He used Roosevelt’s son to get that contract. The deal paid off and Joe got the private meeting with Churchill and visited him at Churchill’s Chartwell home.

So you see, political inside favors have been going on a very long time. James Roosevelt was closely linked with Joseph P. Kennedy Sr. Many of James Roosevelt’s controversial business ventures were indeed aided by Kennedy. Jame’s dealings were often clouded. In fact, Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau even threatened to resign unless FDR forced James to leave a questionable company which became known as the National Grain Yeast Corp. affair (1933–35), which was believed to be just a front for bootlegging. It was James Roosevelt who lobbied his father to make Kennedy the ambassador to the United Kingdom.

James was a shading type of character in the eyes of many. Later on, during July 1938, there were allegations that he had used his political position to steer lucrative business to his insurance firm. He was then forced to publish his income tax returns and denied these allegations in an NBC broadcast and an interview in Collier’s magazine. This became known as the Jimmy’s Got It affair after Alva Johnston’s reportage in the Saturday Evening Post. Roosevelt resigned from his White House position in November 1938. The press was often highlighting how rich Jimmy was becoming when his father was a Socialist

Bundesbank warns of Coming Pension Crisis


The Bundesbank has come out warning that there is a German pension crisis. They have proposed that states raise the pension tax and that they should gradually increase the retirement age because the life
expectancy in the future has risen. Central Bank President, Jens Weidmann, has stated that he is generally in favor of raising the statutory retirement age beyond 67 years.

We must understand that the ECB policy of “stimulating” the economy with negative interest rates has bankrupted state pension plans. This theory that lowering interest rates to get people to borrow and thus manipulate demand higher has NEVER been proven to have ever worked. The consequence of what we now face is a major pension crisis that is undermining the future of Western economies

Gold & Bitcoin


 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I really encountered an insane goldbug who claimed you were paid off by the gold cartel to keep the price down. These people cannot open their eyes and see anything but gold or bitcoin. Then they argue the age of knowledge and bitcoin will become the new reserve currency. You really have to wonder if these people are on drugs. Will you be doing a gold report soon? Is it still a viable option for some portion of wealth in the future. Bitcoin seems to depend entirely upon a power grid. I was traveling back to the States and was actually asked if I had cryptocurrency. I said no. What is all that about?

IK

ANSWER: Yes we will be doing a gold report soon. Yes, these people are insane. Why would the gold cartel want to suppress gold prices? They claim to force people to sell their gold at cheap prices. But the annual production of new gold is about 3150 tons as of 2017. There are 32,150.75 troy ounces per metric ton. That means the annual production during 2017 was 101,274,862.5 troy ounces. That is a lot of new gold coming to the market every year. That is far more than small investors would be dumping. You really think they would suppress the gold price to force small investors to sell say even 10 million ounces when they mine more than 100 million annually? That is really just sophistry and it is a shame people would even believe such nonsense.

I really cannot imagine that any government would surrender power to Bitcoin. Come on. Spain is criminally prosecuting Catalonia politicians for simply advocating a democratic vote to separate from Spain. But governments will surrender their power to Bitcoin? The dollar is not even the RESERVE CURRENCY by choice. The USA has been trying to encourage competition and advocated the creation of the Euro back at the Plaza Accord in 1985. The USA always wants a cheaper dollar to sell more goods overseas to create in theory domestic jobs. Even Trump advocates that position of a cheaper dollar. Only a fool would believe that governments will lay down their power simply because you ask them to. Open any history book. Power shifts NEVER come involving government without major uprisings. Sorry, they will NEVER sit on their hand and watch their power evaporate. They will only surrender power during revolutions for they will kick and scream every step of the way.

As far as cryptocurrency declarations, they are beginning to look at anything that they can confiscate that is more than $10,000 when traveling calling it all cash. Italy confiscated bonds a man had in a briefcase on his way to Switzerland. It was not “cash” but they are calling anything that can be converted or sold as “cash” because they are desperate. I wrote about those proposed regulations last year.

During August, gold fell to 1162.70 intraday. The channel support rests at 1144.03. Gold open interest is about 488,000 contracts which amount to almost $600 million. That compares to the production in 2017 valued at $121.5 billion. The total market capitalization of the US share market alone is about $30 trillion. The US National Debt is about $20 trillion. Total world sovereign debt is closer to $250 trillion. Gold is simply not a big enough market to displace everything of value out there. It is one component that will rise in value. But gold will NEVER replace the dollar and governments will NEVER return to any commodity standard.

The true wealth of every nation is its people and their productive capacity. China, Japan, and Germany, all rose to be major economies with no gold reserves. Russia, which had all the resources, moved from communism to an oligarchy and that prevented its economy from exploding as was the case in China. All the gold, diamonds, and oil, did not propel Russia to #2 economy. It is the people that create wealth – not merely resources. Forget returning to any commodity based currency. It does not work any more than austerity works in Europe.

How Politicians Are Creating the Worst Economic Crash in History


Politicians have totally and completely misunderstood the trends within the global economy and as a result, they are actually creating one of the worst economic debacles in history. I have explained several times that the bulk of investment capital is tied up in two primary sectors – (1) government bonds and (2) real estate. Because of income taxes, real estate has offered a way to make money in capital gains without having to pay income taxes. Money has looked to park in real estate around the world for many various different reasons as in Italy was the escape from inheritance taxes as well as banks or in Vancouver to gain a foothold for residency fleeing Hong Kong. In Australia, there was the Super Annuation Fund which allowed people to use retirement funds for real estate. In New Zealand, the new government wanted to declare foreign investment just illegal and in Australia, they made it a criminal act for a foreigner to own property and not inform the government they were foreigners. Over in London, they imposed taxes on property which created a crash.

People spend more when they believe that they have big profits in their home. The recession of 2007-2010 was so bad recording the worst of all declines since the Great Depression all BECAUSE it undermined the real estate values. People then spent less because they viewed their home declined in value. As taxes have been rising and the average home value collapsed, the velocity of money kept declining. Especially as real estate values declined and interest on savings accounts vanished hurting the elderly who saved money for retirement and discovered their savings were producing less income, the velocity of money just plummeted. The velocity of money began to turn up finally in the USA ONLY when interest rates began to rise. The retired could suddenly begin to make something on the savings for one in a very long time. This is something the ECB still has not figured out in Europe as it has wiped out both the elderly savings along with pension funds.

The USA targeted only New York and Miami requiring that title companies pierce corporate veils to discover who was really behind what. They did not impose taxes only on foreigners nor did they outlaw foreign ownership of property. This is also why the high-end market recovered, just not the average home on the street. Nonetheless, polit6icians have gone nuts imposing all sorts of regulations to outright making it a criminal act for a foreigner to buy property. What they are clueless about is this undermining of the real estate market viewing foreign buyers as evil, is undermining real estate as a whole and that is what creates the worst economic decline in history. This undermines the banking system that has used real estate as collateral for mortgages and it undermines consumer spending because people save more when their property declines.

The politicians are actually creating the worse possible scenario for the economy going forward. Welcome to the new face of stupidity. They are so out there that it is like they are sitting on a branch of a tree and cutting the branch expecting the tree to fall. This is what they have done to real estate which makes even what Goldman Sachs did in 2007 child’s play.

Now add government borrowing which completes against the private sector and it only gets even more stupid.  Then we have brain-dead investors who actually think government debt is “quality” when they have ZERO intentions of ever paying off their debt at any point in the future. Governments borrow year after year with no understanding what they are doing to the entire economy and how they are causing unemployment to rise with ever more taxes and more borrowing completing with the private sector on every level.

Then society elects people with absolutely ZERO business experience who in turn appoint academics who have wonderful theories that have never proven to have worked even once! And people wonder hy I say they will never listen to prevent a crisis so we have no coince but wait for the Crash & Burn.

 

Merkel Has been the Face of Europe – So Get Ready!!!!


 

Merkel has been the face of Europe – good, bad, or indifferent. Germany has been the major economy in Europe with France a distant second. We must understand that the fate of the Euro hinges on this position of Merkel. She has been a staunch supporter of austerity and the Green and AfD are rising BECAUSE of Merkel’s immigration policy. Instead of recognizing she may a major mistake and address it instantly, she has done the typical politician maneuver – blame everyone else and deny it was her policy at fault.

 

 

I cannot stress enough that the political instability within Europe, is a critical factor behind the capital flows that can push the dollar to unbelievable highs. Our unique capital flows analysis which we invented is backed by raw data which is contributed from proprietary sources worldwide which allow us to really see the trends without opinions or myopic domestic analysis. All of these people who keep talking about how the dollar has to crash are so caught up in old world theories that have NEVER been correct and have not just failed their analysis of things such as gold, but they have failed the central bankers on an even grander scale. This is why even central bankers attend the WEC. There is a much higher plane of financial analysis that we must respect and come to grips with BECAUSE we are all in this together. NO politician can even pretend to be in charge of the economy and make promises that are far beyond their control because NOBODY can go against the global trend. PLAIN & SIMPLE!!!!!!!

A special report is going out this week for the attendees of the WEC. This is on the Economic Confidence Model and the major November 2018 Convergence that is on our doorstep. The consolidation is about to end. So buckle up – we will be on our way to something really extraordinary that no domestic analysis will ever see coming.

In that respect, it will be like the 1987 Crash that was caused by external factors that never appeared in domestic numbers or analysis. It was so significant, that is when the Presidential Commission was compelled to request all our international research to understand how external factors overpower domestic.

So welcome of 2018. This is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Better than any movie, TV show that’s for sure!

Is it the Elections or Interest Rates?


QUESTION: Dear Marty,
Thanks for the continuous enlightening blogs about increasing interest rates and its effects on EM’s and others.
Today on Bloomberg , they were discussing that the earlier 60:40 Equity bond correlation is breaking down and now it’s 100:0 i.e. both go up and down together.
If I understand your view correctly , the increasing interest rates is a death knell for the Bond trade/Sovereign Debt but totally opposite for the Equity mkt which might surge as capital flees to Private assets i.e Equity.
Would you care to comment please ?
Thanks again for all that you do and the fresh perspective you provide.
Best Regards,
US
ANSWER: They are misreading the impact of interest rates. It is really a political impact at this time and as we head into the week of 11/05, there is a rising concern because the Gallup Poll shows that the Democrats may take back the House and them everyone assumed they will do everything in their power to overturn everything Trump has done. So international capital is deeply concerned about the Democrats right now.

We are still in this consolidation transition period. Capital is trying to figure out the future and it is very confusing. This analysis you refer to is myopic at best. They ignore worldwide concerns and focus only on domestic issues. Interest rates have been rising since the 4th quarter of 2015. The decline has NOTHING to do with interest rates. They just have to blame something.

Pension Crisis hits Russia


Vladimir Putin tried to reform Russia’s pensions system which is crumbling as is the case in the West. This giant Ponzi Scheme is collapsing and it has been the heart of Socialism. Putin’s approval rating plummeted this year in the aftermath dropping from 82% in April 2018, dropping to 66% here in October 2018. His decision to reform Russia’s pensions was met with tens of thousands of Russians taking to the streets to protest. This is what we are to expect over the course of the next two years. It is also why the Federal Reserve is desperately trying to gradually raise interest rates in hopes of stabilizing the Pension Crisis.

There is simply NO system that will survive this Pension Crisis because the design was faulty from the outset. The traditional way people took care of their future was to build a family structure. The children took care of the parents. The promises of socialism have relieved the children of such obligations for the government was there. As we begin to witness this crisis unfold, the world financial system will be turned on its head.

Eurozone will Collapse – There is No Other Choice Economically


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I can see what you have been arguing about the faulty design of the euro. After the EU rejected Italy’s budget, is there any hope left for Italy?

RS, Rome

ANSWER: For those who do not follow Europe closely, the European Union took the unprecedented step Tuesday (23rd of Oct) of rejecting Italy’s draft budget as incompatible with the bloc’s rules on fiscal discipline. This has simply validated the position many take in Italy that they are an occupied country. The Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis publicly stated that the Italian government was “openly and consciously going against commitments made” to drive down the country’s debt and deficit levels. The decision is escalating a battle between Europe’s establishment and Italians and the sooner you exit the Euro, the better Italy will survive.

From the outset, in designing the Euro they deliberately lied about just about everything. They told everyone that they would be paying the same interest rates because of the single currency. I explained that was absolutely false. They appear to have deliberately used the example of the dollar to pitch the euro but never mentioned that the single interest rate was the Federal level they were referencing. All 50 states issued their debt in the single currency of the dollar but they all paid rates according to their own credit rating.
I warned them that they MUST consolidate all the debts making that a national debt that they would have a single interest rate and that would compete with the dollar. Thereafter, each state would then issue its own debt as deeded and the free markets would price that accordingly. Under the system that I instructed them to adopt, this budget crisis would not exist. Because they FAILED to consolidate the debts from the outset, then the EU interferes with everyone’s budgets and dictates terms to them which in reality does make each state and occupied country.
This system cannot possibly survive. The Euro will collapse. There is no possible way for it to survive under this scheme. Italy should simply announce it is exiting the Eurozone. Those in Britain who want to remain are complete idiots. I cannot express it any more politely. Nobody will talk reality here!

Why Has the USA been “Pinnacle of Global Success”


To the shock of everyone in politics and economics who can’t get enough socialism and want to bash that the disparity of income is so evil, these Marxists are beside themselves when the World Economic Forum released a study that shows the United States is the most competitive nation on earth. They have, however, concluded that their international economic index which finds America at the “pinnacle of global success”  cannot be attributed to the actions of any one leader or administration. Indeed, people fled Europe to American to get away from bureaucracy. This remains reflected in attitudes.

A majority of Europeans (58%) would prefer to work as an employee rather than risk starting their own business. The promises of pensions and the social state have created a vast economic different picture between Europe and America and in Asia, we see a trend that is beginning to surpass the United States. This contrasts starkly with attitudes in the United States, where a majority (51%) say they would prefer to strike out alone. The United States allowed the property to be owned whereas in Europe the title to the property remains fixed in most of London and is leased out for 100 years where people pay the value as if they had purchased the property, to begin with. Property in London that was “freehold” was rather rare. Many fled to America which was the land of opportunity to actually own property, build wealth, and leave it to your family.

Then rushes in the Marxists. They hate people inheriting wealth and call it unfair. Every generation should start at zero in their mind. Then we have the economists who argue that it is the disparity in income that suppresses the economy in Europe. So what is their solution? Regulate everything excessively and take the wealth away from those who have it and pretend you are handing it to the people if anything is left once they government gets its hands on it for their own lavish pension schemes.

The United States is the venture-capital capital of the world. That will soon be displaced by China. Nevertheless, how to actually measure entrepreneurship is a very distorted view of the economy. One popular approach among economists which overlooks the depth of a nation’s economy is to count how many new businesses with paid employees start up each year, then divide them by the number of companies that are already up and running. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), calls this percentage the “employer enterprise birth rate.” Others just call it the “start-up rate”.

From this distorted perspective, the United States scores fairly low on that definition coming in second to last when looking at the years 2007 through 2009 during the crash. The glaring flaw in this view is the fact that in the economies which are least developed come out on top, which was Slovakia and Mexico. The United States was predominantly small business also before the Industrial Revolution. Creating criteria of this nature are extremely misleading. Also, the period in question saw many young individuals start out on their own unable to find jobs with their costly degrees. They entered the self-employment segment but were not hiring people. They were breaking out and doing work in various services.

The greatest economic growth follows the LOWEST taxes, developed economies, and lower regulation. When the government attacks all three areas, our computer simply shows that economic growth declines.

China & the Hidden Debt Crisis in the Provinces


The Sovereign Debt Crisis in China among the provisional governments is alive and well. The off-balance sheet government liabilities in the regions amounted to an estimated 40 trillion yuan which is almost $6 trillion. Some are calling this a “gigantic credit risk” which is a hidden liability. This represents 60% of  GDP which bypasses the debt-to-GDP ratio set by the central government on the provinces. They have created financial vehicles called LGFVs. Beijing has focused on shadow banks, regulatory loopholes, and hidden bad loans. They have curbed the shadow banking and brought the BitCoin outflow down. However, the Beijing government has only been able to reduce the credit risks associated with LGFVs marginally. The current view is that it will take China up to a decade or more to deal with the problem of LGFVs, as we enter this debt crisis cycle between 2019 and 2021, the pressure will build much sooner.

Nevertheless, we see that this debt crisis is what is holding back China short-term. Once this adjustment is addressed, we will still see China emerge as the Financial Capital of the World after 2032.