Your blog, “Model & the 1991 Collapse of the USSR” for me was a major thought process change. I believed in the Random Walk down Wallstreet, not any more.
The chaos model example of the Dow Jones reminds me of the migration of the starlings – link attached.
I had a pet Starling, a very smart bird, who loved my computer and even pecked on my keyboard and accidentally sent an email one time.
I have even observed butterflies flying against the wind on a windy day by navigating within the calm currents of the wind.
Thank you for showing the pattern of the market.
Ernie
REPLY: It is truly amazing but there are so many aspects within nature that confirm NOTHING is random – there is a cyclical nature to everything thing. Here are the five Brain Wave patterns. If there is no cycle in your brain – you are dead. So I am always astonished by people who do not believe in cycles and think there really is such a thing as random walks. We need those people because they are the fools who are easier to separate from their money. They love to buy the high and sell the low. Thank you very much. Keep believing it’s random and the government is really Santa Claus.
And for those flat-word folks who didn’t believe that the earth actually was in a cyclical orbit around the sun, how absurd, don’t forget to put a mask on when you drive alone or when you sleep alone make sure you also put on a condom just to be really safe.
COMMENT: Marty, I remember your 1991 conference when you said Russia looked like it would collapse by the end of the year. I think it was December 31st when Gorbachev resigned. But I also remember how we were talking about how key reversals were still reappearing but migrating to different time levels. You never talk about that today. You had said that the migration of reversals would often hint at the next crash or slingshot. That was what we got in 1991 when Russia collapsed. Do you see anything like that again?
I am glad you are still at this. You have great insight as a trader.
If Scotty wants to beam you up, please say not yet!
DZ
ANSWER: Only for you Dave. Your memory is better than an elephant’s. OMG, how black was my beard. I also had some hair back then. Yes, you are right. I probably have not written here about the strange manner in which markets do move. Yes, the USSR collapse by the end of that year. There was the August 1991 coup against Gorbachev.
The Quarterly Array back then picked the 4th quarter of 1991 and the 4th quarter of 1992. The first was a Panic breakout to the upside and the second was a Panic to the downside making the reaction low the week of October 10th, 1992. The reversals were clearly fractal in nature and key reversals will reappear and migrate through the various time levels. That was something which was very fascinating. I promise I will find the time to express more detail on that phenomenon. It was indeed another aspect that the model revealed that I never expected. There is such a hidden order that lies behind the mask of randomness.
People who talk about random walks are simply incapable of forecasting for they cannot see the order behind what they think is chaos. Just as Einstein said, he cannot believe that God plays dice with the universe. I discovered the same thing when it comes to market activity. There is no such thing as random walks. There is a secret order to everything.
When I went to economics class, they said there was a business cycle but it is not regular and cannot be predicted because it was random. Then I went to physics class and they said nothing is random. I came to the conclusion someone was lying. It turned out to be the economics professor. Larry Summers still maintains that view. Hence, economists can manipulate society if it is random – not predetermined.
In plotting what Lorenz thought was random weather data, what emerged was a hidden order that we could not see otherwise. This even disproves the entire nonsense of Climate Change. It has always changed and there is a pattern to the movement – it is not random and we have not altered the climate cycle. Again, it is the same type of people who cannot see the patterns in markets so they say it is a random walk.
I ran markets through our Chaos models and patterns of regularity emerged – not random walks. Again, there is far more order to markets and that is why personal opinions will never cut it when we are trying to forecast the future.
I have on my bucket list to do the next book on the ECM – my gift to posterity. Hopefully, one-day people will wake up and understand that there is a hidden order to everything – NOTHING is ever random. When the USSR collapsed, the capital again fled to the USA in the face of a new level of uncertainty. The New Yorker ran the article on me in 2009 and called it – The Secret Cycle.
COMMENT: Marty, it has become obvious that the media promotes everyone but you. I have attended your WEC events and have met central bankers and people from all the major investment banks both in Hong Kong and at your Berlin Conference. The media avoids you like the plague. But everyone of any substance attends your events. Obviously, the media avoids you to suppress the truth when those in power listen to you. Very interesting.
Can’t wait for Dubai
FW
ANSWER: What I do know is that the major media needs its talking heads. It is irrelevant if what they say is right or wrong. It is only the content they need. They do not want someone like me telling the world what you preach about interest rates is not just wrong, it hurts a lot of people.
I was doing a TV spot I think in 1983. It was FNN that became CNBC. I was doing an interview with Walter Bressert. I gave our forecast that the British pound would fall to par by 1985. The pound was near the $2 level at the time so it was a 50% drop. The host was shocked. He turned to Walt and asked – “What do you think about that forecast?” Walt and I were good friends. He replied, “I would not bet against his computer.”
That was the last time I was on FNN. They want the standard BS. They do not want real analysis, especially long-term which our computer has been the best at compared to anyone. So, I’m not sure it is some conspiracy plot. I think it’s just self-interest. Major media will occasionally cover our forecasts, but generally only after the events.
Barrons had reported our forecast from 2010 that the stock market would make new highs, only when they thought it was a joke. When it happened, they never reported that we were the only ones with that forecast.
Major media is not interested in actual forecasting. They only fill content. They just need the talking heads. They do not care if they are ever right. They are selling content – not real analysis. Even the BBC wrote about the economic forecast at DAVOS on how they are always just wrong. They wrote: “There is just one problem: economists have a poor track record for getting it right.” Why? Simply. When people forecast they are expressing an opinion. They are influenced by the current trend and as such, they can never see in advance the change in that trend.
Our computer is usually correct on the long-term trends. It has never missed a shift in the business cycle that I can recall. The media is just not interested in something like that. They want the controversy and personal opinions for they themselves form personal opinions just as they have bought into Climate Change and now they are promoting World War III.
QUESTION: Do you think that Socrates will ever achieve infallibility?
KJ
ANSWER: I have only shown our Global Market Watch model at conferences. It is a pattern recognition model that is learning every day. I have pointed out that nothing is infallible but if anything can achieve that, it will be this model. Right now, it’s not too bad, but it is still in its infancy. What has shocked me more than anything is that it has identified over 80,000 patterns. This is incredible to me. However, it explains why it is impossible for a person to actually forecast correctly. There are so many subtle variances that something may not be what we think is unfolding.
Eventually, it is theoretically possible that we reach some limitations of the pattern variances. If that can be achieved, then and only then would you be able to forecast infallibly.
Yet there is something else of tremendous importance. Socrates has been virtually infallible on the long-term trends and events. What I have come to understand is that there are so many possible variations in the day-to-day trends, but it does not alter the long-term. It projected a financial panic in 2008 10 years in advance. How do so many events unfold to the very day of the Economic Confidence Model? All I can say is that these events, which have nothing to do with my personal opinion, confirm that there is a hidden order of complexity that the make human eye cannot possibly see. There are just way too many events that unfold precisely on the very day of a target to be just coincidence. There is a far greater order that exists and people will disparage these forecasts because they think they only work because we have a huge client base.
QUESTION: So if I read you right, you never anticipated that your computer would also forecast war and geopolitical events. ChatGPT seems to be able to find things and answer questions. But it cannot forecast the future by itself. So what did you do that is even more impressive than ChatGPT?
DW
ANSWER: Being a programmer since my teens, was the key. Being a trader, I had experience in both fields, which enabled me to TEACH my system how to analyze. So Socrates is not going out to the web and collecting what everyone has to say. It is analyzing the data all on its own.
Because I was also a history buff, I saw how civilization rose and fell. There was obviously a cycle to absolutely everything. Since even taking energy, we use to just burn wood, then oils, then whale oil, and then oil. There is a cycle to innovation. Not personally knowing if that will change to something else, I had to construct my system with my experience and then allow it to discover entirely on its own.
I have explained at conferences that we had a client, the Universal Bank of Lebanon, who found a ledger recording the daily prices of their currency back decades. They asked if we could create a model. The data was input and the system forecasted that their country would go into chaos in 8 days. I thought something was wrong with the data. They calmly asked – What currency would be best? They saw themselves the crisis coming and in 8 days the civil war began. The same took place with a Sausi client who was a big shipper. He wanted to know what gold was going to do for Iran was going to start attacking shipping in the Gulf the next day. I asked: Are you telling me a war will start tomorrow? Oh yes, he replied. So by 1998, it was clear that the computer was capable of projecting wars. That is when I stood up in our London WEC in June 1998 and warned that Russia was about to collapse in 30 days. That became the Long-Term Capital Management collapse with the Russian bond market.
So ChatGPT is cool and it will dazzle everyone. I wrote such a program during the early ’80s to teach my computer how to use natural language to communicate. I used my children as the input. The program I wrote was designed to have a conversation. It would retain a database of who you were so if it asked if you had a dog and you said yes, it would ask you its name and remember that. So the next time you came back it would ask you how is your dog. It had so impressed my daughter should bring all her friends over. I was working with Dragon Systems back then when it was hardware. So the computer would talk verbally to them and they thought it was alive.
We will release a portal where you can ask Socrates questions and it will respond. But this is focused on the economy, not the name of Lady Gaga’s dog. Socrates is totally different from ChatGPT.
Mark 12:41-44: “And Jesus sat over against the treasury, and be beheld how the people cast money into the treasury:k and many that were rich cast in much. And there came a certain poor widow, and she threw in two mites, which make a farthing. And he called unto him his disciples, and saith unto them, Verily I say unto you, That this poor widow hath cast more in, than all they which have cast into the treasury: For all they did cast in of their abundance; but she of her want did cast in all that she had…”.
A lot of people are asking if I have any more biblical Widow Mites I could put together. The answer is yes, but I will have to see what I have left. For those who want the unusual showpiece, we can frame a Widow’s Mite with a Roman Nail documented from the 1st century at the time of the Crucifixion. While most of the nails were retained by the museums after the discovery, a small portion was allowed to be sold privately.
Roman nails were made of iron. This hoard was buried to prevent others from finding them from which they would make weapons and shields. Iron was a valuable metal to many of the barbarian tribes. Hence, this hoard was a remarkable find from the 1960s. They finally allowed some to be sold only in 1999.
Those interested in such a unique gift, send an email. Obviously, we would need to know how many people really want to have them framed up.
The price would be $125 for a Roman nail and a Widow Mite framed
QUESTION: I find it interesting that the Roman coin the academics said was fake has now been shown that it had been in circulation. Is this what you talk about how academics are always trying to reject anything that upset their established view of science or history?
SC
ANSWER: Absolutely. It does not matter the field. It is always the same. The Book Historia Augusta they swore was a fake and attributed it even to a monk a few years before. Then there was Homer. They declare that was all fiction until Schleman set sail and discovered Troy, Mycena, Thebes and all the cities they said were fiction. Why this is the standard I cannot explain. They rejected Keynes until the politicians turned to the idea. They reject the existence of a Business Cycle to this very day. You have to beat them over the head with something to prove your point.
Sponsianus was aA second usurper from the Danube region, which today they claim is Ukraine. Sponsianus appears to have come to power briefly in Dacia defending the area from an invasion of Germanic tribes of the Alamanni in 244AD during the early reign of Philip I (244-249AD) based upon coin finds bearing the name Sponsianus who was otherwise unknown to history. Like Historia Augusta, the academics immediately called the coin a fake. Anything that seems to upset the academic narrative they immediately reject regardless of the field.
In 1713, two gold aurei bearing the name of Sponsianus were unearthed in Transylvania, Romania together with coins of Gordian III and Philip I known as the Arab. This was followed by the suggestion that Sponsianus was a usurper during the reign of Philip I after he murdered Gordian III. Instantly, most academics declared them as forgeries. Simply because they found no written record mentioning this usurper, they conclude the coin must be fake.
However, this was the precise period when the Goths began to invade. We know that the Carpi began to invade Dacia no later than 246AD and within one year they were joined by the Goths to invade Moesia, which included the find site which was in Transylvania, Romania. We know of one other usurper at this time in the same region Pacatian (248AD), but in the end, he was murdered by his own troops. There was yet one other usurper – Silbannacus who is known only from a single coin that now resides in the British Museum. Silbannacus most likely led a very short-lived rebellion during this same period on the Rhine perhaps about the same time period as Pacatian in the Moesia (Romania).
Silbannacus appears to have defended the region against the Alamanni during the first half of 244 AD was coins declare a victory as well as a usurpation of power with the support of the Senate. It is possible that Sponsianus may have been Severus Hostilianus of the Byzantine sources which may have confused him with Hostiliaisn (251AD), the young son of Trajan Decius (249-251AD).
Consequently, Sponsianus may be the same person noted by his Zonaras who refers to Severos Stilianos. It may have been the usurpation of Marcus Silbannacus and his support by the Senate that forced Philip to make concessions to the Persians. No emperor Sponsianus is mentioned in the Historia Augusta.
What we do know is that Philip I had murdered Gordian IIIin his attempt to seize the throne. However, he was not equipped to manage the entire empire. As the invasions began from the Northern Germanic tribes, this is clearly why we see these usurpations, not from a quest to seize the throne as much as the political turmoil facing these invasions.
Trajan Decius (249-251AD) was hailed emperor by the troops on the Danube and and he marched against Philip I and defeated him and his son at Verona. However, Trajan Decius was then the first emperor to be killed in battle against the Goths. It was because of these invasions that Trajan Decius took this as the Christians refusing to honor the gods of Rome angered the gods and as such he ordered the first widespread persecution of the Christians in 250AD because of these invasions.
History of the Region
The Alamanni several Germanic tribes including the Ubii, the Sicambri, the Teneteri, the Usipetes, the Catti, and the Cherusces. They were the inhabitants of the upper and lower Rhine, and those beyond that great river, such as the Westphaliaus, the Hessians, and the Saxons, as far as the Elbe and the Weser. They did not imitate the Roman coinage but issued their own Celtic gold staters early on.
It was Drusus, during the time of Augustus (27BC-14AD) who constructed forts and established garrisons throughout this region, in order to hold the Germanic tribes in check; at the same time that he opened a road for his troops through the Hyrcanian forest. The victories of Drusus (brother of Tiberius (14-37AD) over the Alamanni were well known. However, those exploits were not followed by the expansion of the empire and the subjugation of the Germanic tribes of that region. Thus, that area was never reduced to the form of a province.
Following this period, the Alamanni inhabiting that part of Germany, which is situated between the Danube, and the Upper Rhine, were finally subdued at first by Caracalla (198-217AD), and later by Aurelian (270-275AD) Later on, the father of Constantine I the Great (307-337AD), Constantius Chlorus (393-305), while still a caesar under the Tetrarchy, overthrew them with a great slaughter. They continued, nevertheless, from time to time, to wage war against subsequent emperors, from Constantine the Great to Gratian (367-383AD). They were finally brought to subjection 496 AD when they met with a major defeat by the Franks under King Clodovicus.
The primary reason for the Academic rejection of these coins stemmed from that reverse of the coin depicts an image borrowed from coins minted by C. Augurinus dating back to 187 BC. The inclusion of the Republican era reverse has led to suggest that Sponsianus was the leader of his senatorial resistance against Philip I. In opposition to this, some academics have suggested that it is unlikely that his senatorial recognition would have used along with a Republican reverse from the coins celebrating the family of the Minucii by C.Augurinus.
because there existed emperors appointed by the Senate of Pupienus (238AD) and Balbinus (238AD) Therefore, it has been argued that if Sponsianus was supported by the Senate he would have used a more current theme for his coinage. While the series is interesting, they certainly are not conclusive. It cannot be ruled out that Sponsianus perhaps claimed his right to the throne arguing he had descended from that ancient senatorial family. After all, Constantine the Great did that with Claudius II (268-270AD) in an attempt to so some legitimacy.
It is most likely that there were invasions in that area on the Danube frontier whereas he may have been held Emperor to defend the local region from the invaders. We have seen this before even for example Postumus (260-268AD) who claim the throne of the Gallic Empire to protect the people from invaders from the North. He issues coinage showing he was there to protect them from the barbarians which Rome could not. This region of the Danube was under attack at the time around 244 AD by the Alamanni the Germanic tribes. There have been additional ports of coins discovered in Romania that also date to this period of 244 AD suggesting that there was political instability and war in the region during that time.
QUESTION: I have been following Socrates for quite a while. It certainly seems to provide the long-term view quite reliably. You said it has taught you. So I take it that is why it is AI because you did not precisely code it to do these things?
WK
ANSWER: I created Socrates to monitor everything. As a hedge fund manager, I could see how everything was connected. Read Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs for 1931 and it accurately described how a panic unfolds is led by a liquidity crisis the same as when Russian bonds collapsed in 1998 creating the fall of Long Term Capital Management.
Any mistakes are mine personally in the interpretation. That is what I mean by it has taught me a lot over the years. A lot of clients just rely on Socrates – not me personally. The arrays are probably one of the important aspects. Once again, it has nothing to do with my opinion. So many clients get familiar with it and apply their own interpretations.
Here is the array we published in July and we were touting the August/September period all year. We can see the violent thrust up and then down – the typical panic but over two months. It depends on the week it generally hits. It called for a Directional Change in October followed by another in November and then December made a new high and then retreated.
Socrates has done a good job. Once again, it is not me personally making these forecasts. As a human, we are all subject to error. Socrates is not perfect. The Global Market Watch is an ongoing project and I am stunned at how many different patterns it is coming up with. This demonstrates that complexity is an understatement. Below are the Global Market Watch reports for the 1932 low on a weekly and monthly level which was the week of July 4th, 1932. We can see that it is not perfect. When it is saying a “New Pattern Forming” it means this is a new pattern not yet in the database. The number of patterns is approaching 100,000. Nevertheless, it did pick the 1932 low correctly. Not every day into that low. Thus, it is not a trading tool, but something to just alert you to pay attention. Nothing is ever INFALLIBLE.
QUESTION #1: Once more I am asking: In practical terms, when a Panic Cycle appears, which are the factors that will help us to determine if the movement will be up or down please? Thank you for answering. SM
QUESTION #2: Your Panic Cycle is remarkable and your forecast on Ukraine before 2014 warrants putting you on the front page of every newspaper. Do you think the fact that ________ goes out of its way to find people who will say what your model has and never refer to you as being part of the whole disinformation game? I tend to trust them less and less for never crediting your computer even once as part of the whole cancel culture. What is your view on this silence?
ANSWER: A Panic Cycle, more often than not, can be an outside reversal meaning it can penetrate the previous low, turn around, and penetrate the previous high. It can also be a huge move in one direction. They tend to be events that are a surprise typically engulfed in some news. It is hard to come up with the fundamentals well in advance. But the computer was picking up the 2008 crash as far back as 1999. I took this array from our old site off of the Wayback machine.
We published the computer forecast in 2013 that had pinpointed Ukraine as the place where World War III would begin. That was one year before the 2014 revolution. The ONLY people to call for an interview on that forecast was RT from Russia. That says a lot. No one social media site nor even one mainstream news outlet ever bothered to can to ask how could this computer do that.
It should be obvious as we move into a Panic Cycle. If a market is rising, be on guard and turn to the Weekly and Monthly levels to see if there will be a big crash or an abrupt breakout. Trying to explain that 2007-2009 would be a major crash was rather simple as you got closer. The very day of the high in the ECM was the precise day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index. The Panic Cycle Target of 2010.29 was the precise day that Greece applied for emergency loans from the IMF. It should have been obvious going into that from 2002 that it would have been a crash.
Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle can be an OUTSIDE REVERSAL meaning it can make a new low and high during the same timing interval. Here is Weekly gold. There the Panic Cycle for the week of 04/18/22 was a high as well as a big move in one direction. Note that the top Composite or aggregate was a turning point. This helped to define that it would be a high since the market was rallying into it. Take note that the Directional Change target for the Week of 05/16 produced the low also because it coincided with the target for a turning point on the top line. Note that the next Directional Change was 06/06/22 and that was the highest closing with the next week being an outside reversal to the downside.
Insofar as to why other sites refuse to report the success of Socrates or the mainstream press, a lot of people write in asking if the same site ignores our forecasts and will go out of their way to tout someone else are really part of the undercover proxy war of the government against the free press. I cannot confirm or deny that view, but indeed a lot of people write in question if they are the same thing that is now being exposed with the corruption at Twitter and the government-controlled Wikipedia. Some emails have pointed out that they jump on claiming this breakthrough in cold fusion, but refuse to report on how our computer has projected so many things years ahead of time and could save the world if you got rid of the corrupt politicians and deep state.
As I have explained, the Constitution is a NEGATIVE restraint upon exclusive government. This is how the government has been using social media and mainstream media to cancel people, and ignore others, doing what would be unconstitutional if the Deep State did it directly. So you may be right. If they go out of their way to find someone else, perhaps they too are getting their orders from Washington DC. Guess we need Musk to buy them out too.
The computer had targeted 2014 for the start of the war. This is me outlining that 3 years in advance at the 2011 World Economic Conference. Some people judge various sites and newspapers that constantly ignore reporting on any of these forecasts as really just part of the Deep State no matter what they pretend to be. After what Musk has exposed, you have to question any of them these days.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I recently graduated ________________ with a degree in history. I just wanted to let you know that nowhere was there ever a discussion that FDR deliberately allowed Pearl Harbor to take place to force the Americans into a world war. I verified independently what you said about FDR. To my total shock, you are 100% correct. That leaves me wondering if what is being taught is indeed just propaganda..
Thank you for all you do. You are an amazing source.
CM
ANSWER: Let me explain something. To write the Greatest Bull Market in History back in 1986, I published my sources with newspaper clippings and researched everything because history is indeed written by the victor. When I was in school, I had to read The Great Crash by John Kenneth Galbraith (1908-2006). Nowhere in there did he EVER criticize the government because he was a left-wing socialist in love with Marx as most academics seem to be.
I was in London and would often rummage around the antique bookstores near the British Museum. I found a copy of Herbert Hoover’s memoirs. It changed my life. It was there that I read about the sovereign debt defaults of 1931. Hoover made a serious mistake. Many blamed him for the Great Depression so he did not want to appear to be making money from it. So his deal was that nobody could make money from the book. They published, I believe, only 500 copies. It was extremely rare. I would discuss what he wrote at institutional seminars I used to do exclusively below 1985. That led to an onslaught of calls to the Hoover Foundation asking for the book. I spoke to them and they said – Oh you’re the guy. I said yes. I was trying to get them to republish the work. Today, you can buy republished editions.
I learned the hard way – never trust what they teach in school. All the research I have done has been on my own. That’s why when I wrote the Great Bull Market in History, I tried to create a “feel” for how I did my research reading all the daily newspapers trying to recreate the experience as if you were there back then. Understanding the truth is critical.
Roosevelt was inflicting embargos on the Japanese, freezing their money, and cutting them off from all energy, and when they turned to buy fuel from other nations, Roosevelt threatened to blockade their ships. Is it any wonder why the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor to eliminate the US fleet after the treats of an embargo?
What we are doing to Russia is the exactly same way Roosevelt treated the Japanese. There will be only one resolution – World War III. I do not believe that those in Washington and Brussels are this stupid. This is DELIBERATE and they are trying to provoke Russia to attack as did the Japanese and they claim we wear the white hats.
Just like the weapons of mass destruction that never existed in Iraq, or Vietnam that never attacked us, or the sinking of the Lusitania because we were secretly sending arms to Britain after swearing we were neutral when it comes to war – the people are NEVER told the truth.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
Centinel2012 