Tag Archives: War on Women

Sep 2 2017

Putin Warns We Are on the Verge of a Major Conflict


Armstrong Economics Blog/North Korea

Re-Posted Sep 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Friday writing in an article published on the Kremlin’s web site that the emerging standoff between North Korea and the United States over its nuclear missile program bringing the world to the edge of a large-scale conflict. He further warned that it was a mistake to try to pressure Pyongyang.

Putin will attend the summit of the BRICS nations in China next week. This article he posted was clearly taking a position ahead of his trip making it known that he favored negotiations with North Korea.  He wrote:

“It is essential to resolve the region’s problems through direct dialogue involving all sides without advancing any preconditions (for such talks).”

Sep 2 2017

Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law

Re-Posted Sep 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

President Donald Trump is about to make a decision that will mark his presidency forever. There are some 800,000 technically illegal aliens who came to the States as small children brought by their parents. They have gone to school here, fell in love here, and very often, they have married an American and have children who are American. If Trump makes a decision that these people must be deported, he is seriously out of touch with human rights.

Trump has dragged his feet on this issue known as the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, or DACA. If he moves to deport these people, his presidency will go down in history as really deplorable. I met a man who was deported thanks to the corruption of New York Federal Judges. He came to the States when he was 4 years old. He grew up here, married, and had four children. He owned a photo development shop in the basement of the World Trade Center. An agent persuaded him to take out a loan to buy development equipment rather than send out his customer’s film to be developed. That agent filled out the paperwork as typical and checked a box that he was an American citizen because he had no accent and he just assumed. When 911 hit and he was wiped out, the bank reviewed all loans outstanding and then discovered that he was not an American citizen. He was charged with Bank Fraud. Went to trial because he did not fill out that form and the judge held him guilty anyway. They sentenced him to 7 years in prison and then because he was a felon, he was to be deported. His wife lost the house and her and the four children were living in the basement of a friend on charity.

If Trump further destroys families of such people who did not come here on their own decision, this will be a major disgrace for his presidency.

Categories: Rule of Law
Sep 1 2017

Sekulow, Fleisher and Guilfoyle Discuss Latest Revelations of Corruption Within FBI…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 1, 2017 by

In a letter from Senator Chuck Grassley to new FBI Director Christopher Wray (full pdf below) the senator outlines some disturbing information discovered in documents reviewed by the judicial committee.

Chief among the issues was a discovery that fired FBI Director James Comey had already drafted a preliminary conclusion that Hillary Clinton was not going to be held responsible. The FBI Director’s 2016 position was created in April and May before sixteen key investigative witnesses, including Mrs. Clinton herself, were even interviewed. Jay Sekulow, Ari Fleischer and Kimberly Guilfoyle discuss.

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The revelations within the documents provides even more evidence that FBI Director James Comey was running a political investigation and using the FBI to cover-up for the Clinton email crimes.

WASHINGTON DC – […] The Judiciary Committee reviewed transcripts, which were heavily redacted, indicating Comey began drafting the exoneration statement in April or May 2016, before the FBI interviewed up to 17 key witnesses, including Clinton and some of her close aides.

Comey’s work on the statement also came before the Justice Department entered into immunity agreements with Cheryl Mills, Clinton’s chief of staff while she was Secretary of State, and Heather Samuelson, who served as the State Department’s White House liaison.

Comey announced in July 2016 the FBI wouldn’t recommend criminal charges against Clinton.

Democrats in Congress alleged last fall that Comey’s actions in the FBI’s investigation into Clinton’s email use violated the Hatch Act, which caused the Office of Special Counsel to launch an investigation. (Read More)

Here’s the letter from Senator Grassley and the Senate Judiciary Committee:

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/357737809/content?start_page=1&view_mode=&access_key=key-3AS1jVb3ELCaS5LiMi06

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Key page:

Sep 1 2017

3D printing, AI and Robots v Dark Age


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers

Re-Posted Sep 1, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: Hello, Mr. Armstrong.

Let us say that the future turns out OK-ish (post crash and burn), that we avoid another dark age. 3D printing, AI and robots do a lot of the work for humanity. The amount of available mundane jobs are reduced and replaced by our inventions.

Have you had any thoughts about a society where technology makes most humans obsolete? I would not know if that would be a dystopian or utopian way of life. Probably neither.

Thank you for your time.

Thank you for sharing your knowledge!

-Arild

ANSWER: Let us hope that we do not go into a Dark Age.  I certain do not think we are going all the way to a Dark Age. The reason I warn about that is to hopefully make people aware that this is one of those times when such events take place. I do not believe that the cycles can be altered. What I do believe is we possess the power to understand and reduce the volatility.
What we face is rising tension and dysfunctional government. It is always government that causes the Dark Age. Their greed and obstinate desire to maintain power results in them turning against the people to retain control. If we understand what they WILL do, we can intelligently counteract those measures. The army will be a key component. If some divisions support the government and others the people, there is your civil war. Then we have the Marxists who are in a clear trend to retake government. So this is the battle we will have to confront.
ECM-1970-2084
If we can neutralize government and Trump was elected because the silent majority can no longer survive, then we can save the future. We still have the Marxists to deal with and these people are just as hateful as the White Supremacists. We are caught in between these two extreme groups. Of course, they too are really made at their life styles being diminished by taxes. The Marxists point to wealth inequality as if taking all the toys from the rich will make their life better. They tried that with Communism – it too failed. The problem is government. It consumes more than 50% of the GDP which is just wasted. That reduces the standard of living for everyone. Hunting the rich causes them to hoard and invest less so you then have economics also declining.
This idea of  3D printing, AI and robots do a lot of the work for humanity eliminating the available mundane jobs is grossly overstated. Workers are being replaced because of taxes. I helped restructure companies and assisted them on where to locate when they wanted to move into Europe. I put the manufacturers in the UK not France or Germany because the taxes on labor was 40% less in the UK. If there was need for office type jobs and low tax rates, I moved those to Ireland. The deciding decision was TAXES – not the hourly wage of a worker.
cntrl-alt-del
Therefore, if we hit the control-alt-delete button on government and do a reboot, the first thing we do is certainly replace judges with AI and eliminate the “opinion” and corruption thereby reestablishing an honest rule of law. There should be term limits, and direct democracy where the people vote on each bill from their computer. Each bill must stand alone – not tacking things on the clean water bill that have nothing to do with water. Eliminate all government pensions – no career jobs. Any agency that needs workers is outsourced so pensions are real not promises from politicians.
Workers are being replaced ONLY because of taxes and healthcare costs. We may have been created equal by God, but they is purely in rights not talents. I am a very good trader, but that does not mean I could be a great brain surgeon. We all have our talents so it is not one-size fits all.
The mundane jobs will be there. AI cannot replace that segment. But AI can make the world much better and help to advance society to the next level. We have to reboot government for that is what is destroying society. Fix that, and we can advance in society rather than go into a Dark Age.
Aug 31 2017

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Admits No Common Ground With Trump on Immigration – Chamber Demands Open-Ended Immigration Must Be Maintained… ion


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 31, 2017 by

The open border position of the crony-capitalistic U.S. Chamber of Commerce is only one of the issues that showcases the hidden agenda of their heavily lobbied influence upon Republicans in Congress.  The CoC spends hundreds of millions writing legislation and paying off the UniParty to deliver on their multinational corporate agenda.

In an interview today the Chamber admits their immigration agenda has no common ground with the President Trump administration.  CTH has pointed out this issue for many years, however more people are awake now.

WASHINGTON DC – The Chamber of Commerce admitted Thursday that it is struggling to find common ground with President Trump on immigration, and so far hasn’t been able to find a “sweet spot” on the controversial issue.

“We don’t have a policy paper on immigration. It’s a controversial area,” Randy Johnson, the Chamber’s senior vice president for labor and immigration policy, said at a press briefing Thursday. “We’re trying to figure out where our interests align with the Trump administration.”

He added later that, “Immigration across the board, with some limitations, is a benefit to this country and that is the position of the Chamber.” In contrast, the Trump administration has sought not only to stop illegal immigration but has backed a plan to cut legal immigration in half.

Johnson said the Chamber, the national largest business trade association, was nevertheless “ready to engage with the Trump administration” on the subjects such a merit-based immigration. The chamber would not budge on family-based immigration though, he said.

Johnson said he hoped the president did not end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals policy that allowed children who were brought to the country illegally to remain, though he said the legal principles behind the policy were shaky. (read more)

“Family-based immigration” is code-speak for open borders.  Under the principles behind family migration, once a single family member arrives in the U.S. they can then bring every member of their family, even extended family by marriage, into the U.S.

This process is also called “chain migration”, because there is essentially no end to the unlimited access brought about by relationship.

On DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arivals), the U.S. CoC is a big proponent of amnesty and open borders.  The CoC wrote, and then spent hundreds of millions paying congress for, the 2013 “Gang-of-Eight” bill within the Senate.  The CoC held the same position on DAPA (the DACA parents).

However, DAPA was found to have been unconstitutional executive branch overreach by the U.S. Supreme Court.  If DAPA was an illegal Obama executive action, DACA is also.  The difference between outcomes is simply that DAPA was challenged successfully by states; DACA has yet to be challenged in court.

Aug 31 2017

Report: White House Weighing Mexican Remittance Fee To Pay for Southern Security Wall…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 31, 2017 by

This is a little funny.  Back in 2015 we originally shared an easy peasy way to pay for the border wall by charging a 4% remittance fee on wire transfers to Mexico.  With more than $25 billion (2015) in Western Union transfers, more than Mexico’s entire oil and energy sector combined, a 4% U.S. surcharge on remittances creates $1 billion revenue annually.

The U.S. Treasury already has a similar process in place for Cuban Remittances and Western Union compliance affidavits.  The remittances to Mexico have now jumped to $27 billion in 2016.  Making the remittance fee even more feasible.

WASHINGTON – President Trump is mulling a tax on cash transfers between immigrants in the U.S. and their relatives in Mexico as a way to fund his promised border wall without forcing American taxpayers to open their wallets, according to sources familiar with the proposal.

Trump first floated the idea of taxing or halting person-to-person wire transfers, known as remittances, during his bid for the White House. A two-page memo released by his campaign last April described a plan “to compel Mexico to pay for the wall” by preventing immigrants from wiring money outside of the U.S. unless they can prove their legal status to law enforcement authorities.

Because the Mexican economy has become so dependent on wages sent home by migrant workers, which surpassed oil revenues as its leading source of foreign income in 2015, Trump said he could convince the country’s leaders to make a “one-time payment of $5-10 billion” toward his border wall by threatening to stop the annual flow of billions of dollars from the U.S. to Mexico in the form of cash transfers.

In 2016, Mexican immigrants living in the U.S. sent $27 billion to family members and friends in their native country.  (read more)

[2016] Even if President Donald Trump does not renegotiate any of the $50 Billion trade imbalance we have with Mexico; and if you only target the remittance dollars ($25 billion in 2015) which are vital for the Mexican economy, you can see how easy it would be to get Mexico to pay for the border wall.

Federal Budgets are fixed on ten year projections. In order for an expenditure to be revenue neutral the revenue must meet or exceed the expenditure over a 10-year period.

If you take the $25 Billion in outbound remittances (2015), now $27 Billion (2017), and you apply a small 4% surcharge for each wire transfer to Mexico, that surcharge would net $1+ Billion/year.   Multiplied over ten years (budget requirement) that means $10 Billion into the U.S. treasury from the surcharge fee.

$10 Billion in revenue.

Aug 31 2017

Missing Since Bannon Left The White House…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 30, 2017 by

Just pointing out something….

Think about it.  Two Weeks. Crickets, nothing, total silence.  Ever since Steve Bannon left the White House.

Don’t just think casually about it.  Think about the specific stories she was pushing and the ramifications therein.  Not just ramifications to what is pushed by Breitbart media and why; but also Circa News and Sinclair corporate media.  Always question everything.

We suspected she was being fed –controlled opposition–  we didn’t know who.

Aug 30 2017

China Recommits To U.N. Sanctions Against North Korea…


RE-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 30, 2017 by

Things are going swimmingly, strategically, seemingly according to plan.  When the full measure of history allows time to review, observers will note the strategic victory was achieved on August 5th, 2017; that’s the original date when Russia and China agreed to the U.N. Security Council sanctions against North Korea.  That first, historic, Russia and China U.N. Security Council vote against North Korea came as a result of eight months of assembled economic leverage created by President Donald Trump.

As a result of this ongoing strategy, every time North Korea’s Kim Jong-un takes an action, President Trump hits China’s Xi Jinping with an additional economic squeeze.  As Beijing feels the squeeze, they tell Kim Jong-un to act. Every time Kim Jong-un acts, President Trump squeezes Beijing with more economic pressure.  Wash-Rinse-Repeat.

Communist Beijing has boxed themselves into this inescapable cycle. The only way out of the box is to concede and lay the DPRK defeat at the feet of Kim Jong-un.  The conceding will evidence itself when Beijing inevitably calls for ‘Six Party Talks‘.  Today:

(Via Associated Press) Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says his country will “fully and completely” abide by U.N. Security Council sanctions resolutions on North Korea.

Wang told reporters Wednesday China would work with other members of the council on how best to react to North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile over Japan on Tuesday.

He says, “We will make a necessary response.”

While acknowledging long-standing ties between the Pyongyang and Beijing, Wang says China was compelled to act to guard against further instability. China accounts for around 90 percent of North Korea’s foreign trade and has provided limited diplomatic cover for its actions, despite growing increasingly frustrated at continued provocations.

The latest sanctions hit Chinese businesses hard by way of a ban on North Korean exports of coal, iron, lead and seafood products, together worth over $1 billion for a country with total exports valued at just $3 billion last year. (link)

REMINDER Looking at the geopolitical landscape, and the known and identified calendar of upcoming events, we discover a likely Trump Administration timeline to achieve their goal:

♦We know President Trump is planning to attend an ASEAN meeting in November.

♦We also know that President Trump is planning to visit China later this year.  Most likely that trip will be part of the ASEAN engagement.

So it makes sense that President Trump would like to conclude the outline of the economic diplomacy by the time of the ASEAN and China visit – such that: A.) President Trump can outline the agreement and stroke the panda’s ego on his turf; and B.) President Xi Jinping can announce his magnanimous victory on behalf of great Panda’s incredible achievement in providing great security to the world.

::::smiling:::::

Yup.

Meanwhile, just prior to the ASEAN/China meetup, President Trump’s secret weapon, Ivanka, who happens to be the most beloved American in China, is deployed to India to capture the world’s attention with Prime Minister Narendra Modi hugs.

Prime Minister Modi is the “Trump Card” in the geopolitical economic gamesmanship.  China is currently at odds with India’s rise to economic power; Bollywood is very hot in the U.S. right now; and a warm Modi – Trump economic relationship is a foil against China’s heavy-handed extortion of their economic partners.

Those who doubt Trump’s strategic economic approach with India only need to look at how the U.S. has given Pakistan the responsibility to bring tribal extremists in Afghanistan to the table of negotiation.  China and Pakistan are allied via massive Chinese investment, while the U.S. has now allied in common principle with India who is invested in Afghanistan.

Whoopsie sounds like the makings of a fork in China’s One Road/One Belt plan.

Strategery.

::::still smiling::::

Again, President Trump holds all the economic cards.  Just look at what he did to neuter Russia’s economy when everyone was paying attention to the bouncing laser dot on the wall.  The American and Western media missed it, but President Trump moved the entire geopolitical world via a strategic energy platform.

Sip this next paragraph slowly to enjoy:

From OPEC (Saudi Summit) to the EU and Baltic States (Poland Pre-G20); to North African energy development via President Macron (Libya and Mali); to walking away from the Paris Climate agreement; to discussions with Theresa May on a bilateral trade deal; to massive shipments of coal to U.K. and France; to closing a deal to deliver Ireland massive amounts of Texas LNG; to our own internal U.S. energy production policy with pipelines, Oil, Coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) etc.

President Trump used all of those “allied” relationships to lower global energy prices.

The bigger part of the ‘big-missed-picture‘ was how that energy strategy impacted the economies of adversaries like Russia and Iran and simultaneously supported the larger America-First economic and geopolitical space.

Obviously President Trump thinks seriously long-term, and really BIG picture.

President Trump thinks so far out in front of his opposition and detractors they genuinely cannot fathom the sequential logic behind the day-to-day granular activity.  Thinking this way is what caught China off-guard.  They did not anticipate the scope of the geopolitical economic squeeze –OUTLINED HERE– that President Trump could initiate.

Yes, in large part this is what makes President Trump so enjoyable to watch politically. Just like the American media, our international adversaries and competitors have no reference point for a U.S. President that is entirely independent from influence.  They continue to underestimate his effectiveness and ability to impact them economically.

::::Yup, smiling::::

So we can safely predict that sometime in late fall, most likely before the ASEAN visit timeline in November, President Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will be engaged in a new round of Six Party Talks, initiated by request of the increasingly desperate China.

China will structure the DPRK talking points, the “terms”, to set up the meetings.  This is part of how China is allowed to save face and sets up the magnanimous Panda narrative.

The six party talks will essentially be a modern Marshall Plan of sorts for the DPRK and Southeast Asia.  Geopolitical allies Japan, South Korea, and The United States -vs- China, Russia and North Korea.  All six nations will enter into a set of negotiations publicly sold as engaging in diplomacy, deconflicting Southeast Asia, and reducing tension.

Eventually President Trump (or T-Rex) will sit on the Beijing patio complimenting Xi Jinping (or deputy), and Russian, Japanese and South Korean emissaries.

Meanwhile, in the conference room, Secretary Wilbur Ross, USTR Robert Lighthizer and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will play the role of Willy Wonka handing out the golden economic tickets to the representatives who all line up with their requests.

President Trump’s golf partner, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, will already have his ticket, but he’ll play along.  The real negotiations that matter will be between the U.S. Russia and China.  Russia’s angle will be negotiating for higher regional energy prices to get their GDP growing again.  China’s priority will be economic, with tough trade discussion as they negotiate to retain as much of the $320 billion U.S. trade surplus as possible and retain their one-road/one-belt initiative.

The end result will be Kim Jong-un giving up his nuclear ambitions for good; a group of nations promising economic assistance (size TBD), and some official enterprise of ASEAN partners enters as an agency to oversee nuclear compliance under carefully negotiated terms.  Big Panda (Xi Jinping) promises the world to be the magnanimous insurance policy therein.  Everything between now and that outcome is optically chaff and countermeasures.

That’s essentially the way the economic and national security future looks today.

Then again, it might get brighter.

After all, this is President Donald Trump we’re talking about.

Aug 29 2017

Trade Stuff: Trump Refuses Chinese Steel Compromise – Mexico Sees NAFTA Collapsing, Turns to China…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on August 29, 2017 by

There is an saying people use to criticize President Trump based on the people around him:

“People are policy, and policy is people”…

The basic argument is that Mr. Trump can be swayed or distracted from his mission by his staff and those he hires.

This is a common catch-phrase brought about by historic and conventional wisdom.  However, when applied to President Trump, it’s also just plain wrong.

No similar cliche is appropriate for Donald Trump, nothing deters or influences him from his larger decades-long ‘America-First’ economic strategy. Nothing.

Donald Trump is the policy. There’s no assembly of advisers on economic issues that can ever sway his instinct.

Example:

(Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump last month rejected a Chinese proposal to cut steel overcapacity, despite the endorsement of some of his top advisers, the Financial Times said, citing people familiar with the matter.

Beijing proposed cutting steel overcapacity by 150 million tonnes by 2022 in a deal twice rejected by Trump, who instead urged advisers to find ways to impose tariffs on imports from China, the paper said, citing the sources.

The deal was endorsed by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross a week before U.S. and Chinese officials held a high-level economic dialogue, the FT added, citing a U.S. official and another person familiar with the matter.

White House spokeswoman Natalie Strom declined to comment on the “purported internal discussions” between the president and his cabinet members when contacted by Reuters.  (read more)

Panda expected POTUS Trump to go for the “Wimpy strategy”? ‘We’ll pay you Tuesday (2022) for our steel access today‘.

Nope.

That’s not going to happen; now is now.  U.S. Steel industry is at a critical mass; if we wait five years for a Chinese production reduction we might not have an industry.

Even if Secretary Wilbur Ross endorsed it, he’s not going to sway POTUS Trump on an economic dynamic Trump has already mapped out.  President Trump respects Wilbur Ross; heck, the Manhattan bankers hired Ross when they were in battle with Trump over the Atlantic City Casino loans.  Donald Trump and Wilbur Ross were adversaries then.  Why do you think President Trump wanted hired-gun Ross as his Commerce Secretary?

But even “Killer” Wilburine isn’t going to hold sway when it comes to an economic issue that cuts to the central point of MAGAnomics and Making U.S. Manufacturing Great Again.  However, that’s probably where the ‘bring me tariff’s” story’s came from.

♦Second issue.  Mexico realizes they might be getting played with this NAFTA renegotiation strategy.  President Trump might indeed be letting Canada and Mexico spin their wheels only to say ‘oh well’, and walk away at a time of his choosing.   Even USTR Robert Lighthizer and Secretary Ross are not guaranteed to know in advance.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto will travel to China next week to discuss trade and investment, as Mexico looks for ways to decrease its dependence on NAFTA, especially trade with neighboring United States.

He will hold a bilateral meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping and participate in a summit of the BRICS nations, a grouping that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, on Sept. 4 and 5, Mexico’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Pena Nieto’s visit comes as U.S., Mexican and Canadian negotiators meet Sept. 1-5 in Mexico City for a round of talks to revamp the 23-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Mexico is trying to increase trade with Latin America and Asia, and on Monday took part in the first of three days of talks in Australia aimed at reviving the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, disrupted by the withdrawal of the United States.

On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump renewed his threat to scrap NAFTA, which he has cast as killing jobs and exacerbating the U.S. deficit, and ripped into trading partners Canada and Mexico. (read more)

Mexico might think they are hedging their bets, however they are actually playing right into Donald Trump’s preferred method of confronting adversaries.   Trump prefers united opposition; it’s easier to leverage a better outcome when the mutual interests of two parties who oppose you are in alignment and plain view.

Rather than face Mexico and China individually, POTUS Trump would much rather have Mexico and China attached in economic interest. It doubles the leverage by enlarging the target; we are the customer for both; and we can play each against the other.

In addition, it’s a commonly accepted open secret that China and Mexico are already working together to exploit the U.S. market via NAFTA back doors.  Why not remove Panda mask and make it formal opposition? Much easier that way.

However, Trump is steadfast on big picture USTR Trade Deals for manufacturing, but not necessarily intransigent on specific sector details; ie. willing to give Canada and U.S. teams more negotiation time to work out the lumber issues with Commerce, prior to tariffs:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on Monday announced a 2-1/2 month delay in determining final anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Canadian softwood lumber to buy more time to negotiate a settlement of the trade dispute.

The Commerce Department had previously been scheduled to announce final lumber duties on Sept. 6, a step that would have ended the current negotiating process with Canada’s government. Ross set a new deadline of no later than Nov. 14.

“I remain hopeful that we can reach a negotiated solution that satisfies the concerns of all parties,” Ross said. “This extension could provide the time needed to address the complex issues at hand and to reach an equitable and durable suspension agreement.”

U.S. and Canadian softwood lumber producers and government officials have all said they want to reach an “equitable” arrangement to settle U.S. claims that Canadian lumber is unfairly subsidized and dumped onto U.S. markets below cost. (read more)

“Taking the lumps out”, and pushing the deadline past NAFTA rounds #2 and #3…

Aug 29 2017

The Cycle of Civilization


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Aug 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Interestingly enough, in Switzerland the -in majority- leftish and Pro-EU government has been trying to push Switzerland into EU for years as you’re aware of.

Now the SVP is fighting against a new international contract, called “institutional agreement” which would give (amongst others) the EUGH the Supremacy Clause over Switzerland – end of Swiss direct democracy plus all still existing “state” rights (despite 60% – 80% of all new regulations/laws are already taken over from Brussels..)

REPLY: While the revisionists want to claim that the Civil War was only about slavery when in fact the overwhelming majority of Confederate soldiers owned no slaves, they say history is written by the victor not the loser. There is never a single reason for any war. Iraq was claimed to be protecting the people who Saddam Hussein was gassing. The weapons of mass destruction was thrown in for good measure to make it sound urgent when it was Dick Cheney and his greedy buddies looking for oil. Nevertheless, the Civil War was really part of the Cycle of Civilization. We band together creating large governments and then we disband and move back to tribal jurisdiction. This Cycle of Civilization has been going on for thousands of years.

Indeed, this trend is part of the Cycle of Civilization we must understand run the course throughout history of human existence. The Roman Empire took over states and absorbed them to dominate the Western World. Previously, those states suppresses tribes to create states with a central power. When Rome fell, it broke up not into states, but back into tribes and then feudalism. As invaders reemerged, then these feudal castles banned together for a common defense.

The king of France really emerged from the Carolingian dynasty (751–888) under Pepin the Short (751-768) who consolidated the various independent kingdoms as France began to emerge as a nation state. In England, it was not until 827 when Northumbria submitted to Egbert of Wessex at Dore, briefly making Egbert the first king to reign over a united England. However, it was in 886 when Alfred the Great retook London, which he apparently regarded as a turning point in his reign. Previously, there were tribes that formed cities states like Mercia and Wessex and then they merge and become a nation state.

The Cycle of Civilization is the constant swing between independent city states back to unified national states and then empires. Europe went through this as did China and the USA Civil War was fought against this nationalization or State’s Rights. It was not simply slavery.

Those who deny the Civil War was also over State’s Rights, should read this letter. Here is Justice Scalia’s famous letter noting that the Civil War settled the issue of the right to secede, separate and distinct from this issue of slavery that people are focusing on today. This is a major trend throughout history, the Cycle of Civilization, which is always in motion and it is why Europe will breakup as will the United States. – Nothing lasts forever.