QUESTION: Hi Martin!

I have been enjoying readings in your rich (in knowledge) website and writings in my vacations here in Southern South America. Between one coffee and another I printing articles and writings in order to “connect de dots” as you use to say. That is being a pleasure.

My question is on your article from 9th November in 2013. That’s outstanding, by the way, I really liked that. It makes me happy once you make connections throughout history of human civilization. I do appreciate that.

The name of the article is “Deflation – The Great Equalizer – Now Greece? Was There a Different TESTED Response in History? YES!”

Was astonishing to me the initiatives form the Emperor Tiberius (14-37 AD) and the fact that it worked as you said!

Therefore, I am wondering on the following points:

a) Where can I find (book references) more about these initiatives to fix the economy made from Emperor Tiberius? Which book you would recommend on Roman Empire focusing in this economics view?

b) Where can I find some source with regard “call money rate” of the countries around the world or at least from some of them?

Thank you very much for your attention and hard work!!

All the best!

Warm regards,

RS

ANSWER: There is no single source from which I can draw everything. “The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” by Edward Gibbons is probably the best single source, but this does not focus upon the economics. I put together the Panic of 33 AD from various sources using Tacitus as well as the coins themselves. You will find some of the the digital versions on this site under “books.” I prefer contemporary historians to modern ones who interject their interpretations. I also recommend “Historia Augusta.” You can also see how I have brought together all the key sources from ancient times by recording the economic crisis of the first Roman Civil War.

Plutarch (c. 46–120), recorded the personal lives of important Greeks and Romans
Gaius Cornelius Tacitus (c. 56 –c. 120), early Roman Empire
Suetonius (75–160), Roman emperors up to Flavian dynasty
Appian (c. 95–c. 165), Roman history
Arrian (c. 92–175), Greek history
Lucius Ampelius (3rd century AD?), Roman history
Dio Cassius (c. 160–after 229), Roman history
Herodian (c. 170–c. 240), Roman history

QUESTION:  Hi Martin, You have mentioned on numerous occasions, that the Socrates has inputs from around the world to come to very accurate conclusions. I assume, it has plenty data from within the USA as well. Can it also predict the NFP? ADP?. (few days BEFORE.)

Don

ANSWER: We have put in such information from the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) and ADP Private Sector Jobs data and the interesting result demonstrates that human emotion rules — not numbers. Yes, any data series develops patterns including lottery numbers. Forecasting the direction of such numbers is not really that difficult. The stunning realization, as I have said plenty of times regarding fundamental analysis, is that the reaction of the market is driven by the trend. Therefore, you can obtain a good number but the market will respond in the opposite direction and the news will say it was not good enough. The overall trend being bullish or bearish will color the response to the numbers. Forecasting the number does little good from a reality perspective.

The rally in Bitcoin has come out of China, which has accounted for 98% of bitcoin trading in the past six months. China is also home to about two-thirds of the world’s bitcoin mining power. The Phase Transition spike in Bitcoin is very alarming for it flies right in the face of government’s worldwide and what they are trying to accomplish by eliminating currency.

The Chinese have been buying bitcoin onshore, selling it offshore for another currency and then moving the money to a bank account. This is how the Chinese individuals can taken cash out of the country circumventing all regulation. The Chinese  government has been strengthening requirements for citizens converting their yuan and with Trump coming into office, China fears that lower values for the yuan will become a trade war even if the government is not activity trying to depreciate the yuan for trade. Conversions of yuan are already subject to a quota or currency controls in an effort to curb capital outflows.

Bitcoin has been the escape method for capital fleeing China. With the looming trade war on the horizon, the Chinese government will have absolutely NO CHOICE but to come in and regulate Bitcoin when it’s citizens now account for 98% of all trading. From a regulatory perspective, the days of passive treatment of Bitcoin may come to an end. Bitcoin has soared only because it has been the mechanism to obtain foreign exchange and take capital out of China. This can easily be called illegal operations such as money laundering to justify closing that window.

Of course you have the zealots who preach Bitcoin as the alternative to the dollar they cannot shut down. All they need to do is declare it to be illegal and the PRESUMPTION of being in Bitcoin is a PRESUMPTION of being a criminal. They are already using terms like CASH IS FOR CRIMINALS and if you have a few thousand in cash, they just confiscate it presuming you are criminal under Civil Asset Forfeiture and never have to prove you committed a crime or charge you. Keep in mind we are dancing with the devil. There are no rules – just ruthless self-interest. They will do whatever it takes to survive. They will not relinquish power willing.