Tag Archives: Cycles

Jul 6 2022

The Future – Post 2032 – A New Beginning?


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jul 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Will you explain what Socrates foresees for after 2032 at this year’s WEC in November? I’m more concerned about my grandkids. A lot of people seem to be plagiarizing you these days. But all they have to offer is an opinion and we all have opinions. Socrates has been the only thing that has ever been consistently correct.

TH

ANSWER: I have warned that the Economic Confidence Model and how markets even trade themselves is always fractal. We are completing the end of the BIG ONE. I think a lot of people are starting to see this too. The End of the World is by no means the END. It is just the point in history where it all begins again. We can see that Biden is probably the instrument of death, or should I say those who write his executive orders and cheat sheets. They are obsessed with climate change and are deliberately trying to destroy our capacity to produce and use fossil fuels. 

The hatred and division in our society is just insane. We have celebrities canceling the 4th of July over abortion. The very law that the Supreme Court ruled on limited abortion to 15 weeks. They seem to think they have the right to kill a child up to birth. Bette Midler started a controversy on Twitter by posting: “They don’t call us ‘women’ anymore; they call us ‘birthing people’ or ‘menstruators,’ and even ‘people with vaginas!’ Don’t let them erase you! Every human on earth owes you.” The world has gone insane, and all these labels only divide society, creating one group against another. This is the total destruction of society and these people are so stupid, that they cannot see what they are doing because of their own deranged views.

There is an ebb and flow to civilization. We all come together because it benefits all of us, and then it falls apart when one group begins to exploit another. This is the basic rhythm of civilization. As taxes are low and the economy booms in the city, the youth are attracted to the city and leave their parents on the farms or suburbs and head off to make their fortune in the world. Rome became the largest city in history, reaching a population in excess of 1 million by its peak in 180 AD. It had crossed that 1 million mark in 133 AD during the reign of Hadrian (117-138AD).

With the death of Marcus Aurelius (161-180 AD) in 180 AD, the decline and fall began just 51.6 years after it exceeded one million people. The crazy emperor Commodus (177-192 AD) followed his father. Like the Democrats today who attack anyone who supported Trump and are still running against Trump in 2022, Commodus did the same, and anyone who had supported his father he attacked. Today, Liz Cheney, who is as evil as her father in my opinion, is today’s Commodus. She is the destroyer of civilization, for her personal hatred of Trump is dividing the nation and will ensure that people like her will end the United States as we have known it. Cheney will unleash civil war if she really thinks that she can prevent Trump from running imprisoning over 300 people already for entering the Capitol on January 6. Not even their hated Putin even did that to protesters. This will lead to civil war.

Edward Gibbon wrote in his “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” about the son of Marcus Aurelius and how he set in motion the collapse of Rome. He wrote of Commodus (177-192AD):

“distinction of every kind soon became criminal. The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. The execution of a considerable senator was attended with the death of all who might lament or revenge his fate; and when Commodus had once tasted human blood, he became incapable of pity or remorse”

(Book 1, Chapter 4).

We see the same hatred spewing from Cheney’s mouth and with the Democrats. Nobody seems to understand what makes civilization work. They are dividing civilization for personal hatred and gain and in the process fulfilling the cycle that will end civilization as we know it.

Rome was the largest city in ancient times. It eventually collapsed to a population of just 15,000 during the middle ages. The city of London, England, was the first city to reach a population again of one million and it took nearly 6 waves of 309.6 years. London reached the 1 million mark in 1810 during the reign of George III (1760-1820) and in comparison, New York City finally reached that level in 1875 thanks to all the people fleeing Europe. We once again are approaching the peak in civilization and what will come after 2032 will be once more the disintegration of civilization.

Rome fell and broke up into small enclaves that ushered in the feudal system. People became serfs for the common protection of a landlord and his castle. We still retain the word “landlord” to this very day. We will see a new world where countries will no longer exist as we know them and they will all divide and separate into localized jurisdictions lacking the strength of central power.

There will be battles over separation. About 86 years from the peak of Rome, it was divided into three segments. Then there were battles to reunite the empire. Then Constantine divided the empire by moving the capital to Constantinople, which is today Istanbul. Even when Russia fell, it divided regions along the lines of the original countries that were conquered.

Globalization will come to an end and we’re already witnessing this with the Biden sanctions on Russia that have caused inflation and divided the world economy in two. We will witness a return to make the manufacture of various goods locally for each division as well as growing their own food. Energy may revert back to wood and oil for there will be no major power grids as they become localized.

Our population models suggest up to a 50% reduction perhaps as soon as 2040. The population is already shrinking and aging in all the major industrialized nations. Just as in ancient Rome, the first Emperor Augustus issued Family Laws because as an economy expands, the birthrate declines. We see many young girls professing they do not want children. This too is part of the cycle, but they will die alone for children historically were the foundation of civilization as they were charged with taking care of their parents. This is what socialism has done — destroyed the family unit.

I often am asked, how can we prevent the trend. Unfortunately, we cannot. It is far greater than anyone can correct. People like Jessica Chastain are all about them. Without children, her luxurious lifestyle will crumble and she will face the stark reality of how civilization has survived with children taking care of their parents. Even in China, the one-child rule significantly altered its future. While that has now been repealed, the damage long-term is profound.

This will be a NEW BEGINNING for civilization. We will get to rewrite the form of government of the future. This will be a 309.6-year Private Wave, which will be volatile, but our current form of Republics that pretend they are democracies are coming to an end. These are the most corrupt forms of government known in history. They will no longer exist. We will see an admixture of dictatorships/monarchies and democracies.

May 4 2022

Sweden – Manipulation or Enhancing a Move?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted May 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, Socrates correctly projected the claimed Citibank manipulation of Monday in Sweden. It wrote: “The strongest target in the Daily array is Mon. 2nd for a turning point ahead, at least on a closing basis. There are 4 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Mon. 2nd to Fri. 6th suggesting a choppy coiling period for 3 Days. I”

How did Socrates project this and then showed it would bounce with another Directional Change? Was it really a manipulation? Citigroup did confirm that it played a role in yesterday’s flash crash. They released a statement: “This morning one of our traders made an error when inputting a transaction. Within minutes, we identified the error and corrected it.” The exchange refused to cancel the trades. This is confusing for it was not beyond the parameters that Socrates laid out including the technical analysis.

Any clarification would be interesting.

All the best

JM

ANSWER: I understand that the common definition of manipulation is simply a big move. To me, this was NOT a manipulation. My definition is moving a market COUNTER-TREND which this was not. Yes, Socrates projected that Monday the 2nd would be a low and that the Directional Changes back to back suggested it would be more of a knee-jerk reaction rather than a change in trend. The array showed the biggest target would be Monday, May 2nd.

There had been low volume. Thus, if it was a mistake, a smaller amount of selling could have a greater impact. However, it still did not move beyond the parameters of the trend as pre-defined by Socrates. Even the technical analysis that the computer does itself showed that this was NOT outside the norm. I appreciate that everyone will jump on this as a “manipulation” but that is just not the case. Manipulation is something that MUST simply be COUNTER-TREND. Making a market move in the direction of the trend in a spike manner is NOT a manipulation. At best, this is ENHANCING a move within its trend. But it is not a manipulation.

Mar 26 2022

An Interview with Martin Armstrong


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Forecaster Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Mar 14 2022

Trying to Figure Out Why the World is So Precise


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty;
Long-time reader, pro member. First of all, thank you for confirming suspicions from my youth that there are cycles everywhere and for expanding the ideas enabling me to see that everything is connected.
I agree w/ you that the financial center of the world is headed back to China. My question, however, is this. China is currently undergoing its own economic problems in banking and real estate putting pressure on the populace and hence, upon the CCP. What does Socrates say China will look like come 2032+? How will the Chinese society change and how will this change influence the world at large post-2032?

VT

QUESTION #2: Marty, I am flabbergasted that you said in 2013 that Ukraine was the place this all begins. Your long-range forecasts are beyond what anyone has ever done. I find it appalling that these sites like ______  post everyone but you because they are closet gold bugs. This is about helping society understand how the world works for which you should get the Noble Prize. These sites ignore you because they too are no different than the people they claim to oppose. They only preach their own theories.

My question is, have you made any progress in understanding how your model makes these forecasts nobody else can do?

HF

ANSWER: I believe the world is so COMPLEX that there is no possibility of humans analyzing and forecasting the future from a personal gut feeling on a consistent basis. Yes, there are people who hate me because they do not like a forecast. They are just fools and you cannot ever win an argument with a fool. Life is all about keeping an open mind and learning everything we can. Perhaps that is what people call an old soul.

It is true that you see advertisements of some guy who claims he called some crash. One forecast can be nothing but dumb luck the same as a broken clock is still correct twice each day. I have been pursuing this phenomenon of trying to understand how the world REALLY works for decades. I too have found it fascinating how the model can make so many forecasts to the very day – not just one and it is all mathematical which cannot be fudged. I believe this simply reveals that there is a hidden order to everything. It reminds me of the conflict I saw in school between Physics class and Economics. The first said there is nothing random and the latter said everything was random so we can eliminate the business cycle and prevent depressions and recession. Physics was correct – economics was wrong.

Yes, on December 3rd, 2013, I posted: “Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch.” I wrote:

“The War Cycle turns up next year. Because Kiev was the first capital of Russia, this is really important. Ukraine is between Russia and Europe and is being torn apart. Russia’s pride is on the chopping block and this is the real center of the struggle for Russia.”

If you watch Ukraine of Fire, it will help you better understand this critical crossroads that will bring the world to WWIII. Perhaps you will understand that there is a lot more to Ukraine than the fake news presents. We face a crisis where there are people who once again think they know better than everyone else and that they alone have the answer as to how the world should work. They are the typical academic economists who think that the business cycle is nonsense and that they can temper, control, and manipulate society into a perfect state of harmony.

What 2032 represents is the complete collapse in government precisely as we saw with the American Revolution which brought the downfall of the monarchy. This was the birth of republics once again and we will move back to a new form of government that may be hard to visualize. The current system of socialism is collapsing. Politicians only know how to bribe people for votes rather than present themselves as efficient managers of the state. Socialism has allowed the invasion of all of our rights. They can put in a billionaire’s tax and everyone will cheer. You then must file revealing your wealth to prove you are not a billionaire. Every regulative imposition on one group necessitates the same control on everyone else.

I hope that when the system falls like a tree being sawed off at its base, it will fall in the direction of democracy rather than a republic. But all forms of government will be confronted with a new wave of change.

Oct 27 2021

The Cycle of Everything


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Oct 26, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you think only the left is evil?

FG

ANSWER: Of course not. If you understand cycles, markets go up, and then they go down. It is NEVER a one-way street. Politics is the same. Sometimes the Democrats are in power, and then it flips to Republicans (Conservative v Labour). If you go to the extreme far-right, you end up at the same place as the extreme far left; the only difference is their reasoning. Both will oppose their opponents.

This is what cycles are about. I would no more support the extreme right as I would the extreme left. Civilization works ONLY when LIBERTY prevails. Once one side demands their opponent must conform to their ideas, the very purpose of civilization no longer exists. If we are not respectful of one another’s rights, then we must also surrender all our rights.

If you understand cycles, we buy in bull markets and sell in bear markets. You will lose everything if you take only one side and ignore the trends. Politics is the same. During the 19th century, the Democrats were the slave owners. Agendas and principles always change with the cycles.

Jun 21 2021

Cycles in Fashion


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Jun 19, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Isn’t the current version of the economy much more decadent than in ancient times? So the past is not always the same.

WG

ANSWER: I think you have not paid attention or perhaps you have never gone to a museum. The one thing that stands out is the constant changing in fashion. It’s been a long-standing joke that when women’s skirts rise, so does the stock market. When they fall to nearly the ground, the market crashes – i.e. Roaring ’20s.

There are indeed similar trends in ancient times. The term he assumed the Purple meant that the Emperor was the only one allowed to wear purple which was a very expensive die imported from India. In the Catholic Church during Advent, the priest wears purple vestments symbolizing the same Roman tradition.

However, even if you look at the coinage of the various wives of Emperors, and you will quickly notice the changing hairstyles. I suggest looking at a Fashion Museum and you will also see a cycle in clothing that corresponds to the rise and fall in temperatures. Fashion indeed becomes more elaborate in good times, and it does become standard during the bad times.

Jun 18 2021

Questions: Ides of June 2021


Armstrong Economics Blog/Q&A Re- Posted Jun 18, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello,
re: Fauci Under Global Attack
I have to disagree with your comment that China did not benefit. I think they had to have been somewhat aware of what was going on, or at least caught on early and let it happen. This was a big benefit to them, specifically with respect to Hong Kong and the protests that had been going on there for a long time. I think anytime China has an opportunity to grab more control over its citizens, they will take it.

But I do agree with your belief of how it went down. I reviewed the publically available evidence such as patents, etc. a year ago and thought it was highly probable that this was man-made and intentionally released. That being said, it really doesn’t matter. Governments will use any excuse, with help from the media (pravda) to grab more power….in the name of protecting our freedoms, how ironic. I continue to be amazed at how dumb people are.
On another note, and I am a very anti-violent, anti-war person, but…why doesn’t someone just assassinate Gates, Schwab and Soros? Cut the snake off at the head, so to speak.
What are your thoughts on Mauritius? I am looking to get away from this crazy world.

MR

ANSWER: All the information I have, which is EXTREMELY reliable and firsthand, not hearsay, points to this being created to further the Great Reset. China benefits from the deliberate response of the West, which is organized as part of this Build Back Better arrangement. I can confirm the Great Reset was talked about at Davos 1 year before COVID. They selected China in an effort to force them to join this Great Reset. China was on track to exceed the US as the largest economy before COVID. Their economy grew BECAUSE they did not deliberately try to crush it for the Great Reset. This is like a wife whose husband was killed in 9/11 saying she benefited because he had a large life insurance policy. China will become the Financial Capital of the World and they need not do anything but sit on the side, reject the Great Reset, and watch the West self-destruct.

Now as far as someone assassinating Gates, Soros, and Schwab, I think history proves that at the very least there will be attempts on their lives. After all, on July 20, 1944, Claus von Stauffenberg (1907 – July 21st, 1944) and other conspirators attempted to assassinate Adolf Hitler inside his Wolf’s Lair field headquarters near Rastenburg, East Prussia. The name Operation Valkyrie—originally referring to part of the conspiracy—has become associated with the entire event. There will be someone else who emerges to save humanity just as Claus von Stauffenberg tried to save Germany.

QUESTION: Dear Martin Armstrong
What happened to the various sectors of the oil industry? Why are they not talking back? No, CO2 is not destroying the climate! No, we are not the cause of global warming. There is no global warming! We are not destroying the seas with oil and plastic garbage, lack of utilities for sensible waste handling is. Why don’t we hear objections from the big companies? Why are they so compliant with all these faulty narratives? I fail to see what NWO, WEF, Great Reset and more rubbish of the sort have to offer them. Their power base is more potent than this lofty rhetoric from experts and fake scientists. It’s their products that makes the world economy spin around. Why don’t they say something?
Top high regards and mountains of best greetings
/Uni

Unknown

ANSWER: I believe that there have been major bribes paid to some politicians. I also believe that Bill Gates was involved with Epstein, not for young girls, which would have been legal in Europe if they are over 14, but for the purpose of getting powerful people in a compromising position to blackmail them. I suppose the test of my theory will be if Ghislaine Maxwell is actually allowed to go to trial. She has refused to plead guilty and they seem to be trying to get her sick or to pull off another suicide. Her conditions in solitary confinement are deplorable as they flood her cell with raw sewage. But according to Biden, Americans never torture anyone. RIGHT!  Even when I petitioned the court to be taken to a real doctor the judge denied medical treatment. You have no idea how ruthless these people really are. They will stop at nothing to win.

QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,

I hope this email finds you.

Admittedly, I was first drawn to your blog years ago due to an interest in economics. After seeing various academic theories proved false by the market, I was searching online for someone out there with experience who could shed some light. Personally, I’ve become more and more curious about subjects beyond economics/politics. I want to learn more about how things are connected, something you’ve highlighted many times.

Do you have any recommended reading into physics? Something to help me orient myself. I would love to understand more how physics links into economics. Not just at a high level.

Kind regards,
SJ

ANSWER: I wish I could refer you to a book on the blending of these subjects, but unfortunately I cannot. I am trying to write a book on this to bring together the works of various people I have studied over the years. The greatest problem has been that they are specialists in their field but do not step outside of that.

One of our major Australian corporate clients ordered their CFO to meet with me after he lost $50 million in foreign exchange. He was against cycles and had his back up, which was understandable. No matter what I said, he would dismiss our track record as luck. I finally asked him his background. He said he had a degree as a nuclear physicist. I said, “Great! Let’s look at the markets from the Second Law of Thermodynamics.” His mount dropped and said, “Oh my God, there has to be a cycle!” I responded, “You got it!”

They just do not bring the various fields together. That is what I am hoping to do with the fourth book in this series I have been writing, “The Geometry of Time.”  I hope to have the “Discovery of the Business Cycle” ready by the end of the year. After these five books, I will be ready for Scotty to Beam Me Up. I did what I was supposed to do.

QUESTION: You have mentioned more often ancient coins rather than US coins as an investment. Is there any particular reason other than your personal interest in history?

WG

ANSWER: The Chinese are big buyers now of ancient coins in addition to their own. But the difference with ancient coins is that there are collectors worldwide so they tend to be much more of an international market. The coins of a particular country still are valuable but tend to be local — not international. The 1933 $20 gold coin just sold at Sotheby’s for $18,872,250 on an estimate of $10-$15 million would not bring that kind of money in Beijing.

Jun 16 2021

Human Nature Cycle


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Jun 16, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Good Morning,
If we take the statement “History repeats because human nature never changes” it would suggest that the human nature cycle will never reverse. That in itself does not track. If everything is like a pendulum, shouldn’t it swing back around to where human nature can and will change?
And a lesser 2nd question to that end, if human nature did change how would that affect Socrates’ forecasts 🙂 ?

GM

ANSWER: Human nature will never change insofar as we all have personal feelings — we can love or hate. That said, we are also influenced by mob behavior. The experiments of Stanley Milgram show that people would torture another if ordered to do so. He called his discovery, Obedience to Authority.

That said, society swings back and further between public & private confidence. People canceling anyone who has ever said anything, even 30 years ago, is the swing of the pendulum excessively to the left. The swing is based upon the “sheep” who can be herded and they will move back and forth depending upon their influence. That does not negate that we still have within human nature the battle between good and evil. Therefore, every government in history has collapsed because human nature swings back and forth.

Socrates is NOT HARD-CODED to follow some specific predetermined outcome. It adapts to the changes in trends. It is truly Artificial Intelligence, not some neural net or expert system that looks up the predetermined answer.  All I did was teach it how TO ANALYZE and then set it loose on the world. This is a very important point. I was interested in discovering how the world functions. I did not create a program to merely report what I wanted it to say — I am not the government!

This is the real deal. It has taught me a lot in life.

Jun 10 2021

Manipulations


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Jun 9, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Marty,
I have read your blog every day for years and you really appreciate the behind the curtain look at the world. You mentioned that gold is not manipulated which I can understand. My question is if the Silver market is really manipulated or not? I read that JP Morgan has been fined many times for just that. You have mentioned on multiple occasions that once the metals are ready run that silver will out place gold. Will the Liquidity crisis set this all into motion?
Thanks,
NEF

ANSWER: They can “manipulate” any market within the trend. What they cannot do is make a bull market out of a bear market or vice versa because EVERYTHING is connected. You cannot have gold trading for $100 more than it does in Shanghai compared to New York, it will be quickly arbitraged. So to be very clear, what I am talking about is a sustainable reversal of trend counter to everything else in the world. I went head-to-head against Buffett during his last and final attempt at commodity manipulation thanks to PhiBro.  This is what I am talking about. They moved the silver from New York to London and had the fake news talk about a shortage in silver to jack the price up. They were only looking for a rally to $7 and then they sell it to the retail crown once again.

I know the gold bulls hate my guts because they want to always say gold is manipulated. NOTHING is systemically manipulated for decades. The only time that has taken place is governments imposing controls of fixing currency values. Even that never can be sustained. I was named FOREX person of the year because I had forecast when the Swiss peg would collapse. I even met with the head of that operation for the Swiss central bank. I warned him the peg would crack a few weeks prior. He said they could hold it and I replied nobody has ever been able to fix a currency against the capital flows. The peg broke. The same was true in the 1997 South East Asia Currencies Crisis where the pegs broke. I was called in by the central bank of China on that one. Then there was the British pound peg to the ERM that broke and made Soros a billionaire.

I have been around with all of these attempts to manipulate. NEVER has it ever been able to be sustained against the trend. Yes, they can get a blip. But never have they been able to change the long-term trend. The manipulations that they have often been fined over as in LIBOR  is they know ow where the stops are and they push the market to elect them. But that is not changing a bull market into a bear market. That is often involving front-running.

May 22 2021

NYC in Crash Mode?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted May 21, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

New York City is dying thanks to COVID. It has really killed Broadway. When I would often go to a play, the vast majority were tourists from overseas. I would often listen to the different languages being spoken around me. New York City is clearly dying as a mass exodus has taken place of not just the rich, but even Wall Street is moving quietly to Florida. The rise in taxation that is reducing the quality of life will only continue to send more people south, and the hallow remains will gradually decline into 2042. Even permits for guns have soared in New York as the police are unable to restore order. The East Village was the hardest hit with so many businesses just gone. NYC is rapidly becoming extinct. Politicians only see the world from their perspective. They fail completely to comprehend how the economy truly functions. Thus, NYC is on the edge.

This COVID plan-demic has so altered the social structure it is dividing the population into vaccinated v unvaccinated. Even among those who were vaccinated, they are not what you would call Biden supporters. Some have taken the vaccination just to be able to visit family in Europe. Others thought that it would mitigate COVID and prevent hospitalization. Yet, the destruction of jobs and suspending education for many cannot learn remotely. There is also a massive shift with millennials returning home to the nest.

The Democrats are hard at work and desperately trying to open the flood gates to grant citizenship to those from the Mexican border, giving them access to a welfare state, while keeping the border closed to Canadians, fearing they would vote Republican. Then they are also promising citizenship to what they call the “dreamers,” again trying to expand their voting base.

While many try to blame China for COVID and presume they did this deliberately while they are not locked down, any rational thinking person would quickly realize that such theories are attributing clairvoyance to the Chinese leaders. Never in 6,000 years of history has any nation ever carried out such a response. Even during Woodstock, the Hong Kong Flu had the same death rate as COVID, and nobody shut the entire world economy down.

It is very interesting how the 309.6-year cycle marked when NYC was on the brink of bankruptcy in 1975, which was spot on from when NYC was born in 1665. It is stunning how New York has followed the ECM model rather closely, which does not bode well for what is coming in 2022. The 2007-2009 Financial Crisis marked its epicenter in New York City. The collapse of Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns accelerated an economic meltdown that became the Great Recession. Before it was over, the nation’s unemployment rate had reached 10%, but the loss of jobs in the financial sector of NYC approached 20%. Nearly 9 million payroll jobs had been lost, housing prices had plummeted, and the stock market had crashed.

Since New York City was the epicenter of the 2008 financial crisis, the federal government’s immediate response was too focused on propping up New York-based financial institutions. They feared that if the Investment Banks failed, then the government would no longer be able to sell its debt into the marketplace. The national economic downturn was officially dated from December 2007 to mid-2009 when Real Gross Domestic Product began to increase again, but non-farm payroll employment didn’t bottom out until the first quarter of 2010.

Thanks to COVID lockdowns, this financial crisis is politically made and has created a cycle inversion. Unlike the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, this time, the source of the crisis is government, and the response is the opposite of what we saw during the 2007-2009 crisis. Where Lehman Brothers marked the collapse in the private sector from reckless financial products, this time it is the government’s incompetence. The result has been over 100,000 wealthy people migrating from NYC to Florida. Worse still, Wall Street itself is quietly leaving, relocating their most profitable positions and trading to Florida. The crisis facing NYC will escalate, and the financial crossing of the Rubicon will arrive in 2022.