Are Central Bankers Coming to a Bitter End?


Central Bank Confidence

Central bankers these days are seriously trapped. They cannot now reverse their policies for that means they have to admit that they have failed. That is far more serious than you might imagine. To even entertain backing down from negative interest rates means they have to admit that Keynesian/Marxist economics has failed and therein socialism, which is based upon the very principle that government CAN and is CAPABLE of managing the economy. This is the real question presented in the American presidential elections, yet nobody will articulate it in this manner. Hillary still preaches the same failed socialist agenda as if government can even do anything other than attack people who earn more money as did Emperor Maximinus of Rome.

Just before Paul Volcker became Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who served (August 6, 1979 – August 11, 1987), he delivered his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle in 1978 (published on May 3, 1979). If you Google this book, you will see our site comes up first. You can find used copies around $500. Why is this book so rare? Because before Volcker became Fed Chairman, he told the truth.

“The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle – is a sign of the times. Not much more than a decade ago, in what now seems a more innocent age, the ‘New Economics’ had become orthodoxy. Its basic tenet, repeated in similar words in speech after speech, in article after article, was described by one of its leaders as ‘the conviction that business cycles were not inevitable, that government policy could and should keep the economy close to a path of steady real growth at a constant target rate of unemployment.”

This “New Economics” was all about empowering government to manipulate and control the economy. Even Larry Summers, who is the father of Negative Interest Rates, has publicly admitted that government cannot forecast economic declines. Implicitly, he too is conceding that the “New Economics” has failed and his negative interest rates is not bankrupting pensions and has underwritten government debt like never before. Summers has pushed society over the edge. The conundrum in which we now find ourselves is where global central bankers can gather at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, but all they can do is hope something happens to save them. Governments are beginning to depart from the grip of austerity forced upon Europe by Merkel which has greatly suppressed economic growth and created an economic depression exactly as what took place during the 1930s. The option of deliberately creating deflation was the policy of Germany only because they misunderstood the causes behind the German hyperinflation of the 1920s. The failure of the economy to rebound in Europe and in Japan, while the United States has been only a dead-cat-bounce, led to governments insisting politically that central banks maintain and extend their own stimulus efforts.

wizard-of-oz-BehindTheCurtainIt is clear, central bankers are in a state of panic. They are looked upon as the sole economic magician and this political shift for responsibility has overburdened then dramatically. They know all too well that serious structural reforms are now necessary. However, central bankers can’t be seen to be giving up on this Keynesian/Marxist policy Volcker called the “New Economics” and Larry Summer pushed to Negative Rates. They are now trapped, unable to reverse policy without sending a signal that they’ve have failed. The great fear is the collapse in confidence, which is on the horizon. They wake up from a nightmare in cold sweat fearing the curtain will be pulled back and the world will witness there is no wizard as in that film – the Wizard of Oz.

The central bankers tremble at market sensitivity to any change in the perception of what they are up to next. They sought this power of a demigod, and now live in fear that they might be discovered as confused and powerless. This is now all about policy makers being unable to admit complete and utter failure. This is the foundation fro

Bank of Japan Prepares for Crash Triggered by Fed Tightening


An interesting analysis and could very well be the right move!

Money Smuggling v Money Laundering


big-stack-of-money

I have warned that when I am traveling these days, the question always posed is – “How much cash do you have?” Even traveling to Warsaw, there are big signs saying you may not have more than €10,000 in “value” on your person. In Italy, if it looks like you have a lot of jewelry, they weight it. The hunt for money by governments is getting desperate. They use terrorism and the drug trade as the excuse. Granted, there may be cash being smuggled into Mexico like the latest catch of $3 million in the trunk of a car at San Diego. But the problem becomes, we are all now suspects without doing anything.

What is the importance of such seizures to our liberty? Granted, the drug trade may have a bunch of cash. But unless you actually prove they were drug dealers, what they are calling this is “money smuggling” not “money laundering” or even “drug money” these days. That means they claim the right to just take whatever cash a person has without proving that it is the proceeds of a crime. That means, you have no right to travel with your own money.

When I was in the gold business back in the 1970s, an old farmer looking guy with a moth-eaten jacket and a cap, came walking into my office. He was watching the ticker tape display above the vault. Those were my younger days and then guy said: “Hey kid. How many Krugerrands would a half-million buy?” I just put it in the calculator just to answer his curious question. He then said: “I take then!” I was shocked and looked at him. He then handed me a brown paper bag from a food store and said: “Here’s $250,000. Watch this. I go get the other bag.” No bill was newer than 1934 and trying to count that much mostly in $20 and $50 bills that smelled really mildew, you felt you needed a shower afterwards.

Arab-Dinar-HoardI told the story to a friend. For he paid cash. I never knew his name. Back then we were free, not like today. There was no requirement to give up everything to do a transaction. My friend then told me his name and the story. His family was one of the largest landholders on the East Coast. He had sold all the land for Six Flags Great Adventure. The story went that his family had lost a lot of money in the bank failures during the 1930s. So they built their own vault in the basement of their house and never trusted banks again.

Roman-Hoard-BritainBetween “money smuggling” and “money laundering” regulations, you do not have the right to your own money anymore. The “money smuggling” is simply traveling with your money and that requires disclosure for $10,000 or more. Then they use “money laundering” for hiding your cash as in a safe deposit box. Read the fine print for such a box. You are not allowed to have cash or gold in a safe deposit box for that is now “money laundering” meaning you are hiding it from the government. In either case, they just confiscate your money. They need not prove it is the proceeds of a crime or that you didn’t pay a tax on it. Even if your cashed your pay check and kept it in cash accumulating your savings outside of a bank today in cash, that is now hiding your money from government and as such it is “money laundering.”

Had that family been around today, that would justify storming their house with swat teams. That family was not engaged in any criminal activity. They just didn’t trust banks after the failures of more than 9000 banks during the late stages of the Great Depression. Back then, it was not “money laundering” to keep your wealth in cash and in your own vault in the basement. Today, they just presume you are up to something and that justifies taking everything you have.

This is obviously the same human response that has unfolded over the centuries. This is why hoards of coins are still found buried in the ground in all cultures from all centuries. This is what happens with the collapse in the confidence of government. What you think is yours, they view as their’s. Hillary Clinton said in Detroit that Trump is worth $4 billion. She told the audience – think what we could do with that! This is how career politicians look at the world. What can they take from us next.

Central Banks Cut Interest Rates 667 Times Since ’08 & Owns $25 Trillion Of Financial Assets – Episode 1058


From X22 Report Click On Picture To See Larger Picture Gold slammed down again. Subprime auto delinquencies surge. Durable goods orders decline. Capital goods shipments decline. Services PMI declin…

Source: Central Banks Cut Interest Rates 667 Times Since ’08 & Owns $25 Trillion Of Financial Assets – Episode 1058

The Condo Market Turning Down


Porsche Building

The condo bubble has broken in many markets. Even rentals in Miami and other prime markets have begun to decline. In part, the rise in the dollar is now curtailing foreign investment. Likewise, I personally know some British friends who are selling property in the states to take advantage of the huge profit in the drop in the pound when converting back to the base currency.

As with every peak, developers see how condos sell so they have increased the supply right into the peak in prices. This cyclical pattern repeats over and over again. The foreign investors who got into US property back in 2011 have made a fortune in the home currency and are taking profits.

China & Its Debt Problems


Shanghai-8-25-2016

With a total debt of almost 250% of GDP, China’s debt problems are well known. Meanwhile, the government is working on resolving the issue by following the playbook of US investment banks and creating securities structures to offload bad debt (remember CDOs?). The slowing economy has caused rising defaults. Analysts suspect the NPLs ratio to be 30% of bank loan portfolios versus the official ratio of 1.81% as of the end of June 2016.

The corporate bond market is also feeling pressure as 41 companies have defaulted on R25.4bn of bonds since the beginning of the year. In an effort to restore confidence in the banking sector, Bank of China and China Merchants Bank sold off some of its NPLs as securitized products. It seems like an asset swap to other banks with 50-60% of the book being sold to other banks. Furthermore, 95% of the riskiest tranches were sold to a state-owned asset manager. Meanwhile, in an effort to support growth, the Chinese government is promoting lending to small and micro businesses, which carries higher risk and reduces peer-to-peer lending.

Corporate debt is estimated at 145% of GDP with the non-financial state-owned enterprises representing half of the bank credit. Chinese banks have a greater concentration of individual customers with the top customer of Agriculture of China accounting for 7% of its loan book and the top 10 customers comprising 17% of its loan book.

Copper-8-25-2016

Chinese credit is currently growing at 2x GDP, meanwhile, fixed capital investment growth slowed to 3% during 2015. Watch copper that is used for loan collateral in China and has recently broken weekly technical support with a Directional Change during August and the next turning point in October. A breach of the $2.00 level will indicate further lows.
Categories: China
Tags: China

US budget deficit approaches $600bn, public debt to reach 77% of GDP


Slower revenue growth and large spending will expand the US budget deficit to $590 billion in the fiscal year ending September 30, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). * Read more US…

Source: US budget deficit approaches $600bn, public debt to reach 77% of GDP

U.S. Olympians Are Taxed on the Value of Gold in Medals


Olympic Medals

Believe it or not, someone can work hard to get into the Olympics and if they win the gold or silver medals, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is there waiting for their cut. Yes, American Olympians must pay taxes on the value of the medal. They also need to pay taxes on their prize money. This is so outrageous that it is rising to Congress after insistence that such awards should be tax-free, especially when they represent the nation.

The taxman is without mercy. It has long been assumed that Matthew the Apostle was a tax collector. Such people have always been regarded as sub-humans who prey upon the citizens for the state. The IRS is not much different, as is the case for tax-collecting agencies around the world. Their interpretation is to always tax regardless of morality.

Government Preparing for World Wide Civil Unrest – Why?


Pentagon

ft-1998A number of emails have come in asking if we are advising government since they are now enlisting firms to research a rise in civil unrest. The answer is no! Nevertheless, everyone knows of the accuracy of our computer systems and our cycle of war models. It was the CIA that came to us demanding I create the system for them in Washington after the model predicted the fall of the Russian monetary system in 1998. I declined. I did offer to run any study for them on our systems. I was told that was not acceptable for they had to “own it.” I said no way. I believe their position was they did not want anyone else to possess the forecasts. I have also been asked am I not afraid of government? I respond, the only way they will ever get access to what our system forecasts is to leave me alone and read our services. So this is the Mexican standoff as they say. We agree to disagree.

True, the Pentagon is now funding universities to try to model the dynamics of the rise in war. Sure they are trying to copy what we have achieved. They are the government after all. They know I cannot be threatened for I would rather be dead than held as some slave. They are attempting to model large-scale civil unrest across the world no less. You can guess where they got that idea from. I have been told by programmers they contacted to try to program what we have accomplished with Socrates. Good luck. It takes more time than what even money can buy. If you do not understand HOW cycles function at the core, no programmer could ever figure this out. This is not some simplton program if this then that.

20070410 Movie Pi

I have been told that slander and imitation are the ultimate level of flattery. When the model predicted the peak in the Real Estate Bubble to the day in February 2007, they were calling it Armstrong’s Revenge. They thought locking me up would somehow stop the model from working so they kept me in contempt of court using a statute 28 USC §1826 which says the maximum time anyone can be held in civil contempt was 18 months. They kept rolling it every 18 months to pretend they were obeying the law. I was finally released only after 7 years merely because I got into the Supreme Court and they had no choice but to release me or suffer an international disgrace.

ECM-Wave-2002-2011 - RJust after the model forecast the peak in 2007 to the day once again, I was hauled into court and Judge Keenan then tried to discredit our model claiming I stole the idea of Pi from a movie by that name. This transcript above shows how they deliberately lie to try to cover-up anything. Accusing me of taking the idea from a Movie named Pi which did not come out until 1998, just illustrates how fundamentally dishonest these people really are. They think they can just say anything and the world will believe them no matter what they say. They are incapable of ever telling the truth and that doesn’t bother them in the slightest. Think of the worse kid in high school who enjoyed beating up people or stealing what they had. Look them up. More likely than not, they ended up in law enforcement. This transcript is the example of absolute corruption beyond belief. They could care less that you can simply Google the time when such a movie came out. That doesn’t matter. They declare something and to them that makes it true. This was all about trying to discredit a model that forecast the crash from 2007 into 2009 rather than helping society, they seek only to destroy it.

That turning point 2007.1589 picked the very day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index and it was published in 1979, 20 years before the movie. However, it also marked the very day Goldman Sachs sold its infamous ABACUS 2007-AC1 $2 billion Synthetic CDO. They timed that perfectly to the very day of our model.

The court tried to discredit the model. That illustrated they were worried its forecast was coming true. You can bet they analyze every word. These people have no morals and think they can just force society to be economic slaves forever. Nobody has ever beating this game even once in history. Time is on my side, not theirs.

KOMMONSENTSJANE – UPDATE ON OPERATION CHOKEPOINT


The rules for 401ks change next April and we will see them take them over within a few years. After the next market correction they will off er convert them to US Bonds and pay you a premium over the market price. The government get ownership of corporations and you get worthless paper just like SS.

kommonsentsjane's avatarkommonsentsjane

The following is information provided by Money Metals Exchange:

Question: I haven’t heard much about Operation Chokepoint lately. Is that initiative ongoing and are you seeing any impact?

jam48

Answer: Yes, Operation Chokepoint continues, and we think it is very likely impacting our industry.

We’ll elaborate first by explaining Operation Chokepoint. The U.S. Justice department announced the program in 2013. The Obama DOJ’s stated intent is to dissuade fraud and money laundering by ratcheting up scrutiny on banks and financial services providers who have clients in certain “high risk” businesses.

Targeted industries include precious metals and guns and ammunition, but there are many others. Unelected bureaucrats developed a list of businesses they deem suspicious. But since investigating and prosecuting actual fraud or money laundering is difficult, their approach is an end run around due process by cutting off access to banking.

Operation Chokepoint is designed to “choke” businesses by pressuring banks…

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