Tag Archives: Jobs

Feb 12 2026

January 2026 Jobs Report – Has the Trend Changed?


Posted originally on Feb 12, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Jobs

January’s U.S. jobs data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics clearly illustrates the cyclical stagnation and weakness beneath the surface of the headline figures. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 jobs in January 2026 — nearly double the 70,000 economists had forecast — and significantly stronger than the 50,000 jobs added in December 2025. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3% from December’s 4.4% as measured in the household survey.

The sector composition of the gains highlights uneven strength. Health care added 82,000 jobs, social assistance contributed 42,000, and construction 33,000, while federal government employment declined by 34,000 and financial activities shed 22,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings moved modestly higher, leaving YoY wage growth contained and not indicative of broad inflationary pressure.

A critical component of this report is the extensive benchmark revision to prior data. Job creation for the full year of 2025 was revised sharply downward from an initially reported 584,000 jobs to just 181,000, marking a reduction of more than 400,000 jobs and the weakest annual performance since the pandemic period. Separate analysis indicates employment growth through March 2025 had previously been overstated by roughly 862,000 jobs before the revision.

Roughly 25% of the unemployed have been out of work for 27 weeks or longer, and labor force participation improved only slightly. Hiring remains muted as companies are simply not expanding.

One monthly headline does not establish a new trend. Compared to December’s report, which showed just 50,000 jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.4%, January’s 130,000 gain appears strong at first glance. However, December already reflected a clear deceleration from prior months, and the massive downward revisions to 2025 data confirm that the labor market had been weaker than originally reported.

Feb 9 2026

Rent a Human – AI Robots Outsourcing Work to Humans


Posted originally on Feb 9, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

rentahuman

Autonomous AI robots are outsourcing their work to humans. “AI can’t touch grass, you can, get paid when agents need someone in the real world,” the website states. “Robots need your body.”

RentAHuman.ai describes itself as the “meatspace layer for AI.” There is no shortage of stories about AI replacing humans. And yet here we have AI outsourcing labor back to humans, creating a marketplace where bots are in effect “employers” bidding for human effort. Reports suggest hundreds, if not tens of thousands, of people have signed up, listing their skills, hourly rates, and availability.

Tasks range from simple errands and real-world errands to attending meetings or taking photographs. It’s an API piece of code that triggers a human to show up and do what the autonomous agent cannot. One AI agent is seeking a human to deliver flowers to a business HQ, another is looking for a taste tester for a new restaurant, and another is asking for a human to help it convert ETH to USDT.

Prices for human effort are being quoted in stablecoins or crypto wallets, negotiated not by people on a marketplace, but by software logic programmed to minimize cost and maximize efficiency. Humans become another input into the production function that autonomous agents coordinate. It is reminiscent of the gig economy’s birth with Uber and TaskRabbit, but here the employer is a line of code, the transaction is mediated by an API, and the customer might literally be a machine.

AI.RentaHuman

What RentAHuman.ai reveals is deeper than the novelty of bots hiring people. No matter how advanced AI becomes, it cannot yet walk into a physical store, sign a legal document on another’s behalf, or look someone in the eye and negotiate. Those boundaries are still human territory. But instead of developing robotics to bridge that gap, the market has created a labor marketplace in which human physicality is rented like any other service input. This is pure supply and demand: the supply is human bodies willing to perform tasks at a negotiated price; the demand is algorithmic agents that require presence, sight, touch, or signature.

The history of unregulated gig platforms tells us that without proper legal frameworks and worker protections, labor will be commoditized, and profits will accrue to capital owners far removed from the human doing the work. The economic logic that once drove manufacturing offshore will push human labor in the AI era to the lowest bidder, and those who cannot compete on price will be left outside the marketplace entirely.

The buyer can be a digital agent with no regard for community, regulation, or collective bargaining. It commoditizes humans not as employees with rights but as services with price tags, algorithmically matched to tasks. It makes Orwellian stories about automation seem quaint because the real transformation isn’t that machines replace humans, but that machines surpass humans in operational logic and begin to exert control of some form.

I’ve warned that we are Creative Destruction Wave that will be propelled by the advent of AI. It remains to be seen how humans and AI will operate as a collective. Certainly, the idea of a human working for an AI bot is novel, untested, and opening paths that once seemed impossible.

Feb 6 2026

More Disappointing US Job Data Confirms Trend in Motion


Posted originally on Feb 6, 2026 by Martin Armstrong 

Resume.Jobs_.Unemployment

Another day, another set of disappointing data. Data this week from Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicate that the US labor market is no longer merely cooling. According to the latest report, US employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January, the highest January total since 2009, and more than double January 2025 figures. Hiring plans collapsed to just 5,306 announced jobs — the lowest January level on record since the firm began tracking hiring in 2009.

For years after the pandemic, employment was the one strong headline in an otherwise weakening economy. Even as real growth slowed and debt expanded, companies continued to hire, and workers found jobs. That narrative of a resilient labor market propping up economic optimism is now unravelling. Fewer new hires, skyrocketing job cuts, and employers setting reduction plans before the year even began shouldn’t be dismissed as routine seasonal shifts; they point to a downturn in employer expectations and consumer demand.

While headlines often attribute layoffs to artificial intelligence, the Challenger data shows AI accounted for a relatively small share of the cuts. The dominant forces are market conditions, contract losses, and cost pressures.

The labor market is the backbone of consumer demand. Companies expand payrolls when they believe future sales justify investment. Workers thrive when they believe they will be fairly compensated and not penalized by the government through excessive taxation.

Employers set layoff plans late in 2025, anticipating weaker conditions in 2026. Hiring plans are a clear sign of confidence, or in this case, the erosion of confidence. This is not a temporary cooling but a downward trend.

Since the government is unable to operate, data sources like Challenger and ADP have become more dependable. Still, the data from BLS is the preferred gauge, but there is no need to wait for that data to publish to see that the labor market is weakening.

Confidence always precedes activity. When confidence fades, activity follows.

Feb 5 2026

Private Payrolls Miss Expectations


Posted originally on Feb 5, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Jobs

Private payroll processor ADP reported that U.S. private employers added just 22,000 jobs in January, far below the consensus expectation of roughly 45,000–46,000 and softer than December’s revised figures. This weak headline comes just as official government jobs data has been delayed, yet again, due to ongoing political dysfunction in Washington, leaving markets increasingly dependent on alternative indicators for labor conditions.

For most of the post-COVID era, labor data was resilient even as other economic indicators deteriorated. Workers continued to find jobs, wage growth stayed elevated, and unemployment remained low. But now, job creation has faltered. Across 2025, private payroll additions fell to roughly 398,000 — barely half of the 771,000 added in 2024.

Manufacturing continues to decline, posting a loss of 8,000 jobs in January. December’s expansion was initially overstated and has been revised to reflect a growth of 37,000 v 41,000. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its report, chances are it will reflect another downward revision in job creation. People blame the Federal Reserve for holding rates but fail to see that cheaper debt is no longer enticing.

Employers hire when they believe demand will grow. Workers enter the labor force when they believe their skills will be rewarded. Weak job creation is a symptom of declining institutional confidence on the part of both the employer and employee.

Investors and policymakers often treat employment data as a short-term indicator. But when employment starts softening against a backdrop of already weak growth, it suggests the economy is reaching a turning point. The next phase could include slower GDP growth, increased social unrest, or more aggressive policy interventions.

Businesses stop hiring when they lose confidence in demand, not because rates are too high. If interest rates were the determining factor, Europe and Japan would be booming. Governments cannot stimulate indefinitely when debt servicing costs rise faster than tax revenues. That is why labor market weakness matters so much. Fewer jobs mean slower consumption, weaker revenue growth, and rising fiscal stress.

Jan 8 2026

The First ADP Report of 2026


Posted originally on Jan 8, 2026 by Martin Armstrong |  

Jobs

Unemployment will be a pivotal piece of economic information in the new year. The first ADP report of 2026 shows a modest increase of 41,000 jobs, beneath forecasts of 47,000. Yet, the report comes on the heels of an extremely weak November report with a revised loss of 32,000 jobs as hiring lagged in Q4.

Do not take these figures at face value or as proof of a recovering job market. A 41,000 uptick is far below the strong payroll growth seen earlier in the decade. We are witnessing a structural slowdown. Businesses are fragile and adjusting to higher costs in both rates and goods. Workers have become more expensive for businesses to retain in the once deemed “entry level” roles that have been adjusted to meet arbitrary price standards instead of productivity. Manufacturing remains weak despite every administration focusing on bringing production back to America. The most recent report showed a decline of 5,000 positions in manufacturing and another 3,000 gone in the goods-producing industries overall.

Large businesses are not hiring. They’re at capacity based on the economic reality of an economy in stagflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the closely monitored nonfarm payrolls report this Friday for the first time since the government shutdown. The Fed may look to determine rates, but lower borrowing costs will not suffice as employers simply do not have confidence in the economic landscape of tomorrow.

Dec 17 2025

Delayed October and November Nonfarm Payrolls in USA


Posted Posted originally on on Dec 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Jobs

Payrolls in the US declined by 105,000 in October, followed by a 64,000 uptick in November, according to the delayed nonfarm payrolls report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment now sits at 4.6%–a four-year high.

The November jobs data was delayed because a 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted the normal collection of labor market surveys. That alone introduces uncertainty, yet it also amplifies the significance of the patterns we do observe.

Naturally, a portion of lost jobs in October were due to the government shutdown, but the downward trend has emerged. Around 162,000 government positions were shed in October, followed by an additional 6,000 in November. These jobs are inconsequential as they do not add to the economy. October was the third time in the past six months that payrolls went into negative territory. Per usual, previous reports were revised downward. August’s report was revised to show a decline of 26,000 jobs compared to the initially reported 26,000, with 11,000 more jobs lost in September.

The 64,000 additional jobs in November may have beaten expectations, but averaged around 35,000 net jobs per month based on recent readings, which indicated stagnation rather than expansion.

Health care was responsible for 70% of new hires last month, or 46,000 positions. Construction also experienced a notable gain of 28,000. Transportation and warehousing decreased by 18,000 as AI takes over those positions. Leisure and hospitality shed 12,000.

The number of people holding more than one job increased, as did the number of discouraged workers and those adding part-time jobs to make ends meet to 8.7%. This high has not been seen since August 2021 when the US economy was slowly recovering from lockdowns.

December’s report will be released ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting in January, but the Fed cannot change the labor market through rates. The central bank cut rates three times this year and nothing changed. Expect slower growth, rising unemployment, and a re-evaluation of rate policy in early 2026.

Sep 29 2025

Seasonal Hires Reach 16-Year Low


Posted originally on Sep 29, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Online Shopping

Seasonal retail hiring may plummet to the lowest level since 2009. Job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas expects retailers to add under 500,000 temporary positions in the final three months of the year, an 8% annual decline, and the smallest gain in 16 years. Retail depends on holiday Q4 sales for a bulk of annual revenue and the hiring trend is a glaring sign of a declining economy.

Certain retailers, like Target, stated that they plan to offer overtime hours to existing employees. Yet another sign of the times as people are eager for additional income and companies are not keen to take on additional employees.

A PwC survey from September 2025 indicates that the average person plans to spend 5% less this holiday season, down from $1,638 in 2024 to $1,552 per person. The survey has not indicated a drop in holiday sales since 2020. PwC’s figure translates to ~$413B–$460B total if scaled to ~266M adult consumers. Gen Z notably plans to spend 23% less this year as the cost of living has caused most young adults to live paycheck to paycheck, whereas boomers with sufficient savings plan to spend 5% more.

The National Retail Federation (NRF), however, predicts US retail sales will rise between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024, reaching between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion for the year. As for holiday spending, the NRF predicts a rise between 2.5% and 3.5% reaching a total between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.

Hiring trends in retail indicate that companies are less than optimistic about overall foot traffic this holiday season. Americans are spending more on less. Discretionary spending has been on the decline as inflation never meaningly waned.

Sep 25 2025

Gold – Dow & People Pretending to be Me.


Posted originally on Sep 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Gold and IBM Share Certificate

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you for your ground-breaking analysis. I was a gold-only bug, and you opened my eyes to capital flows, explaining that gold rises not due to inflation, but geopolitical tensions. You have been forewarned that when Europe is flirting with war, the capital will flee, and it will be on every boat to the USA. We have gold making new highs, and the Dow is also reaching new highs. Something the gold crowd always said the opposite. You said gold could test the $5,000 level due to war as soon as 2026, I believe. At the same time, others continue to claim that the stock market will crash and revise their forecasts with every new high.

I just wanted to say you are honestly making a difference. I know people steal your work and claim it as their own. I discovered some people created channels and pretend to be you on Telegram and elsewhere. I do not understand their game. You do not solicit money. I’m not sure if they are trying to ruin your reputation. I reported what I encountered to your staff.

I know you have more money than God because you don’t raise your prices, you don’t solicit money, and you don’t sell advertising.

Please do not get discouraged.

Cheers

FDS

REPLY: Thank you for bringing that to our attention. I am not sure what is going on with people pretending to be me. I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANY STOCK INDIVIDUALLY, AND I DO NOT MANAGE MONEY. If you want to know about an individual share that is on Socrates. Some funds trade based on Socrates, but sorry, – been there, done that. I am far too busy to manage money. I am honestly working seven days a week, from 7 AM to midnight, and I still can’t get ahead of the workload. Anyone pretending to be me, telling you to buy a specific stock or promising to manage your money, is a fraud. Let our staff know.

As far as the market is concerned, I will do a Private Post this week. There can be a brief correction in the share market after this week. But it still does not appear to be a major long-term bear market or crash. As far as gold is concerned, the key resistance is really $4500 for next year. Gold has to pass that, and then it would test the $5,000 level. Exceeding that level, the expectations will then jump to $10,000. It gets dicey after $5,000.

If I had more money than God, I suppose that means people wouldn’t contribute to any church.

Sep 24 2025

When Monetary and Fiscal Policies Blur


Posted originally on Sep 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

fiscal_cliff_10937_h264_19201 ezgif.com video to gif converter

The Federal Reserve should operate independently of Washington. It does not. Stephan Miran was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by Donald Trump. Miran, who served as a top economic adviser to Trump and served as the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, switched from controlling fiscal to monetary policy and now the lines between Washington and the Fed are completely blurred.

Miran believes interest rates should eventually be cut in half. He mistakenly believes the old Keynesian theories that lower rates will result in higher employment. “The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses, and I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2 percent,” he said. “However, leaving policy restrictive by such a large degree brings significant risks for the Fed’s employment mandate.”

“The upshot is that monetary policy is well into restrictive territory,” he said. “Leaving short-term interest rates roughly 2 percentage points too tight risks unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment.”

I’ve explained numerous times why this line of thinking is flawed. Businesses are not eager to take on additional debt, albeit at a lower rate, if they do not see a decent ROI in the future. Not a single client has suggested that they were waiting for rates to drop to expand their business. Look what happened in Japan when they artificially lowered rates to zero for decades. The economy stagnated because confidence was lost.

The reason politicians love low rates is not to help the people but to help government. With the US national debt now spiraling out of control, every uptick in rates increases the cost of debt service. Trump knows this. Biden knew it too. Every administration eventually leans on the Fed to keep rates down because the alternative is insolvency.

Trump appointed Miran for a reason. Powell was unwilling to play into politics, but Miran, a voting member of the FOMC, is an installed loyalist who will ensure the government’s ability to borrow continues.

Sep 21 2025

Interview: Europe’s Economic Turmoil, Political Uprisings, & Global Tensions


Posted originally on Sep 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |