QUESTION: Marty; you said at the cocktail party that there are four level of time within each major level of time from daily to yearly. You said that trading results depend upon how you use the model for it is not a one dimensional model so people trying to compare trading results are usually lost. I have seen people who try to bash you and it becomes so obvious that they are mad because they have been wrong and just blame you. I looked at your track record from Deutsche Bank when you managed the hedge fund for them. You had the lowest drawdown of anyone probably in history. There is proof you have done what others cannot do. Can you explain a bit more how you see into the world connections and markets?

Thank you for a wonderful conference. You also put on such a first class even with unlimited food and drinks. They are better than any wedding or bat mitzvah I have ever been invited to. You have to spend hundreds of dollars per head per day. Your staff were very professional and your daughter ran the show. She can stand up before the crowd with no fear just like you. Hope you are grooming her to replace you.

LF

ANSWER: Yes absolutely everything is connected. Once you see it, it might be a bit like Neo in the Matrix and you cannot go backwards. You certainly cannot be a hedge fund manager unless you think dynamically and see the connections. If you cannot do that, do not try to manage money.

You must understand that markets are fractal. So each level daily to yearly is the first step in carving up time. Time is totally arbitrary. I can start a week on Tuesday or make it 8 days instead of 7. Each slice of time will reveal the trend. We can produce a Yearly Bearish Reversal every day of the week by recalculating a year to end that day. There is so much we can do but it requires tremendous computer power.

The Reversal System defines four sub-levels within each major time level. So it depends on how you wish to use them. You can use them all and you will get one result with greater trading activity. The lower chart just use the long-term. This reduces the trading activity and produces a different net return of 4780 compared to 34850.

Now, you can take these results and add in the Weekly Reversals, then Monthly, Quarterly, and Yearly. We will be adding these option to the Trader Pro version. This way you can tailor the model to your particular desire. It is by no means quantifiable as a single one-dimension tool.

QUESTION: Marty; I find the Global Market Watch really amazing. The talk of India banning gold imports could lead to a crash you have warned about under $1,000. The weekly level in gold came up and said about to crash and even caught the high the week of 07 November. The monthly also caught the high and said it was important back in July. But the monthly level at the close of October said a waterfall in motion. It seems like the GMW can even anticipate fundamentals. I really do not understand how the gold bugs keep attacking you. It appears they enjoy losing.

At the WEC you said the GMW is purely pattern recognition. Your blog on August 24th laid it all out. You said “The Weekly Bearish lies at 1275. That is the number that needs to be elected to hint at a potential sharp decline which could set this market up for a slingshot coming out of a low come January 2017.” You have been saying all along that a 3 quarter reaction with gold failing to get above 1362 on a monthly closing pointed to low perhaps by January 2017 at the earliest. How far out can the low form?

Congrats on Trump and gold. Brilliant.

PY

ANSWER: The Global Market Watch is purely pattern recognition. It is a confirming tool to cycles and reversals. It did a good job on gold. Yes, there are two risks to gold. First the ban by India, but second, as the debt crisis explodes, we will see more central bank selling. We will do a report on gold for year-end. Nothing has changed from what we laid out months ago or at the WEC. There are more than 500 markets and shares covered in the Global Market Watch. We will be expanding this to about 3500 soon. That is where you stay on top of things. Waiting for me to write about something when we cover so many aspects of the global economy is not the way to follow markets. This is not a newsletter covering just one or two markets. This is the entire purpose of providing access to the whole world.

QUESTION: Once again Martin your information and explanations are top class. Indian demonetisation, supportive stories in Australian press of ending the $100 bill, Swedish Riksbank investigating digital currency…
You called all this months ago and now mainstream media softening up the masses..
Question – why is Bill Gates supporting this do you think ?
Thanks for all the work you do

Regards

V

ANSWER: Keep in mind that Bill Gates lives within his bubble. I have been shaped rather uniquely by my clients. Having clients around the word and fielding questions from every country, forced me to see the world through everyone’s eyes. So what I see, others may not if they lack international exposure. This in part is why our World Economic Conferences are so popular. They are the ONLY such gathering of sophisticated people from around the world. You get to see the very capital flows in the room. We had people from more than 30 countries at the WEC. They have become fantastic networking meetings, but have risen to virtually like a college reunion.

Without that exposure to see the world through everyone’s eyes and listen, you will never see the trend of the whole. It is not that Bill Gates is evil, stupid, or involved in the conspiracy. He lacks the experience to see the world for what it is rather than be shaped by local propaganda. It sounds entirely reasonable that eliminate cash and you eliminate crime. He is not asking, what else is being eliminated?

While people keep criticizing Trump’s tax plan saying the wealthy will get more back by lowering the top bracket from 39.6% to 33%, all they focus on is class warfare. Trump’s tax plan collapses the seven federal income tax brackets into three, reducing the top marginal rate from 39.6% to 33%, and lowers the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%, among other things. The criticism is always just the socialist view and never address the vast waste and corruption in government. They say the national debt will explode by $5 trillion if Trump cuts taxes as if $1 trillion deficits under Obama was somehow OK. They also ignore the fact that lowering the corporate rate to 15% matches the best rates overseas and will then encourage them to bring their money home and with that JOBS! There is nearly $3 trillion offshore that will not return because the socialists demand high taxes. So it will not return. Saying the deficit will rise by cutting the tax rate assumes nobody will return home. That same position was taken with the Reagan tax cuts and proved to be DEAD WRONG!

Kennedy Revenue Act of 1964 (Pub.L. 88–272), also known as the Tax Reduction Act, was the Kennedy tax cut plan that was signed by President Lyndon Johnson on February 26, 1964. Individual income tax rates were cut across the board by approximately 20%. In addition to individual income tax cuts, the act slightly reduced corporate tax rates and introduced a minimum standard deduction. The economic growth virtually doubled.

The Ronald Reagan tax cuts that the Democrats hated and called “trickle down economics” reduced the top rate from 70% to 28% between 1983 and 1990. The GDP growth soared from -3% to +8%, yet Democrats continue to call this a failure. It was Bush who raised taxes in 1991, but it was the massive tax increase of Bill Clinton jumping the top bracket to 39.6%. The Democrats tried to claim that tax increase “produced the one period of shared prosperity in this past era (since 1980).”

Let’s face the facts. The source of data for the chart above is the Bureau Economic Analysis. So this is the government’s own data. This clearly shows that the Democrats just want to tax people who have more than they do EVEN IF it hurts jobs and lowers the economic growth. This to them is just about punishing people. Their claims that “trickle down” economics did not work is total lies. This is not about letting the rich pay less, this is about EVERYONE enjoying the fruits of their own labor.If you cannot discriminate for race, creed, or gender, then why is it OK to discriminate against anyone because they have more than you or work harder?

With India just cancelling currency, Australia and Sweden probably next, then Europe and Japan, all we have standing in the way is Trump. If he fights against this trend to tax everything in sight and further shrink the world economy, then just maybe we can save the United States from the worst of it. Otherwise, we are going down without a life-jacket to cling to in 2017. At some point, it just pays to quit and not produce anything; Ayn Rand.

This is the boldest move by any government in recent times. Both the old 500 Rs and 1000 Rs notes have been “probabilistically devalued” meaning that anyone holding large number of notes, the value just has been significantly lowered by approximately 10 to 20% overnight. If you now try to deposit the cash, the money is devalued so in other words you were just taxed up to 90%. This is all claimed to attack the underground economy or black money and corruption.

To understand this bold attempt, let us assume that the ECM €100 and €500 notes are demonetized overnight. The government can ensure that this money is deposited or converted in banks and thus it then becomes your obligation to prove you paid your taxes. They will compare the sum with an individual’s income tax obligations.

The other tax India has imposed is highly dangerous and is known as the wealth tax. Broadly speaking, the wealth tax is determined by your nationality, residential status and location of the asset. If you are an Indian national and resident as per Indian tax laws, you will have to pay wealth tax in India, even on global assets. With the new regulations coming by September 2017 whereby the G20 nations will be sharing information, any assets you have offshore will be reported back to your home country. If you did not report mere ownership of assets, that generates fines, seizure, and taxes.

The intent of the law is to tax assets that do not generate an income. What you would have on deposit in a bank would be exempt since that generates interest, which is taxable. However, in case of some assets that do not generate income such as gold, jewelry, watches, a second property that you own, you will have to pay a wealth tax. You can avoid the wealth tax by generating an income from it, meaning by renting it out for at least 300 days in a financial year.

The repercussions of not filing wealth tax return or filing an incorrect return is harsh. The provisions of regular assessment that apply to income tax also apply to wealth tax. Interest at 1% per month is payable for failure to pay wealth tax on due date. There are also provisions to impose a penalty and/or prosecute an individual for not filing wealth tax returns. Therefore, under this approach, any tangible asset becomes taxable just to possess it on an annual basis.