Do People Hear Only What They Want to Hear?


Manipulation-Markets

QUESTION: You always say the markets cannot be manipulated. Deutsche Bank is turning over the smoking gun. Any comment?

ANSWER: It seems you are using the term “manipulation” extremely loosely. You are mixing this term up with collusion and coordination, yes with the intent to “move” a market within the immediate trend which is not “manipulation” as it is being thrown around. Front-running and pressing or spoofing a market does not translate into systemically suppressing a market to prevent it from ever rallying for decades. Nobody does that and it would produce no instant profit. All the emails and text messages in the Deutsche Bank released illustrate collusion and coordinated events to press the market within the immediate trend. They do not show systemic perpetual manipulation. Here is what I wrote in Behind The Curtain back in 2009. The information now surfacing from the Deutsche Bank files confirms what I wrote about years ago:


Look Behind the Curtain, April 9, 2009.

During the late 1970s, the silver market was claimed to be “cornered” by the Hunt Brothers. That was far from true, for what they failed to understand, was that the attitude of the major brokerage houses was not that you were a pure trader-customer, but someone to pick – off for profit. During the 1980s, I had to take on some hedging projects that were awesome. One was in platinum. When you are the largest trader in a narrow market, they watch everything you do. If I was to sell, they assume the whole lot is being sold and jump in front. You suddenly find yourself trapped. I was a witness to the Hunt collapse. They couldn’t get out of the market at any price. The dealers were selling in front of them taking short positions looking to buy back when the Hunts were in a state of panic dumping at any price.

I learned early on that to professionally hedge, one had to navigate the brokers. The only way to deal with them, was to play one-off-against-another, use related markets to confuse and hide your strategy, or else fall prey to the Investment Bankers. In other words, if you had a large position of gold that you wanted to sell, you go to a broker asking for a market in silver. He gives you a quote, and you then buy taking what will become an intentional loss. You go back to the same broker and now ask for a quote on the real market you are trying to sell – gold. He will anticipate you intend to buy because of the silver trade, shifting the quotes to pick up extra profit assuming you are a buyer. When you sell the gold, you just got a higher bid, you are out of the position, and he is scrambling to cover with other brokers. If you hit all the brokers the same way at precisely the same time, they are all now short, and are trapped trying to get out selling back gold that they just bought from you trying to play you for the fool.

These games are at times necessary in the cash markets because the brokers themselves are not satisfied with just making a real market. They need to create an edge. So when you are the 800 pound gorilla, you need defensive measures. It helps to understand the method to the madness of the game.

The market manipulations that really began back in the 70’s with force,became intermixed among the Investment Bankers with technology. we began to see grouping of houses by the later 1980s and early 1990s. Perhaps at first, they were looking for another Hunt. They needed to sell some billionaire on the virtues of cornering and manipulating a market.

The first real coordinated scheme began back in 1993 that I could verify. The target market was silver, and the central player, broker-dealer, was Phillips Brothers who were a big commodity outfit in Connecticut, picked up by Salomon Brothers who was later absorbed as well. This ms known as PhiBro of the same fame relating to Marc Rich.

PhiBro had a huge client who they were acting for to buy up the silver market in 1993. This was an aggressive professional strategy. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission could easily see where the buying was centered in real force. They went to PhiBro demanding to know who their client was. PhiBro refused to give up the name. The CFTC ordered PhiBro to just get out of the market. They did. They just dumped everything at the market wiping out small investors in the blink of an eye.

The CFTC just walked away. Had this been a small broker or money manager, he would have been criminally prosecuted. But the CFTC is notorious for never even once bringing a complaint against a major house. The sources I relied upon, gave me the name of the client – Warren Buffett. Based upon this information and belief, when his name came up again in 1997, it is not a shock.

We kept track of what the “club” was doing and warned our clients whenever their antics were conflicting. One of the big ones that blew the lid off, was again silver. In 1997, I warned that silver was going to rise from $4 to $7 between September and January 1998. I was even invited to join them, and told to stop fighting, and put out false forecasts. I declined. Their strategy became insane.

At first, a friend of mine who had been Prime Minister Thatcher’s economic advisor became a board member of AIG in London. He called one day and asked if he could drop in to Princeton the next morning when he arrived from London. I naturally said OK. To my surprise, he arrived with the head trader from AIG London who then proceeded to try to convince me to stop talking about the manipulations. I told him I would not ever reveal any names, and the government didn’t care anyway.

Things got insane thereafter. An analyst on the payroll of PhiBro had a main contact at the Wall Street Journal. They decided to slander me and get the press to target me claiming I was trying to manipulate the market. It was an interesting strategy, but one I cared nothing about since I was primarily institutional and corporate advisor, and they were not really interested in silver.

The journalist from the Wall Street Journal called me. He accused me of this nonsense and we argued. It got quite heated. He said if silver was being manipulated, then give him the name. I told him he wouldn’t believe me anyway. He demanded the name and so I said fine, go ahead, let me see you print it, knowing he never would. The name I gave him was Warren Buffett. He laughed. Told me everyone knew Buffett did not trade commodities I told him that was how much he knew.

The Wall Street Journal published the article. The London newspapers were fed stories by the “Club” that I was now the largest silver trader in the world. This became all a joke to me. Even the CFTC could look at positions and knew I was not a big player in silver.

The mistake made by the “Club” by turning out the press against me, was they actually created such a worldwide story that the CFTC was forced to call me. They knew I was not the source. They asked me, where was the manipulation taking place? I told them it was in London, out of their jurisdiction. They told me that they could pick up the phone and find out. I told them that they had to make that clear decision. I hung up. Never did I expect that they would really do anything.

A few hours later, my phone rang. It was a good source in London who also was helping to monitor the “Club” actions. He told me that the Bank of England had called an immediate meeting of all silver brokers in London in the morning. I was shocked. The CFTC had made the call. But then again, I had given them no names so perhaps in their mind, this was fair game.

Within the hour, Warren Buffett made a press announcement. He admitted he had purchased $1 billion worth of silver, in London . He denied he was manipulating the market. Claimed the silver was a long – term investment. Everyone was shocked that Buffett was suddenly exposed as a commodity trader after all the next day, the wall Street Journal called me. The writer asked – “How did you know?” I told him it was my job to know! Silver thereafter declined and made new lows going into 1999. So much for the long-term investment.

There have been major manipulations of markets such as rhodium and then there was the manipulation of Platinum. Cornering a supply is far too risky. What the “club” did was to join forces with Russian politicians. The deal struck was to recall the Russian supply of platinum to suddenly take an inventory. Platinum soared in price. Of course the long positions were already laid in before the announcement. Russia had never before recalled its entire supply to take an inventory. Nevertheless, it worked. They were able to force platinum up for the auto – industry were buyers. At the top, the “club” sold their long positions, reversed into short positions, and then instructed the Russians to end the inventory. Platinum crashed. Even Ford Motor Company sued over that one.


Here is the New York Times from February 5th, 1998. Note that the CFTC had no comment because it was Buffett. The Wall Street Journal had called me and I was warning our clients in September 1997 “they” were going to take silver up to $7 by January. On September 30th 1997 the stories played headlines –

“Silver Prices Hit Six-Month High On Steadily Declining Reserves, By  PALLAVI GOGOI AP-Dow Jones News Service Updated Sept. 30, 1997 12:01 a.m. ET NEW YORK — Silver futures surged to a six-month high at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, a move analysts said was triggered by steadily declining warehouse stocks. The rally was boosted by preplaced purchase orders around the $5-per-ounce level…”

This was the news created for the manipulation the feed to the press that was constantly played out in the newspapers. The Wall Street Journal again reported on November 17, 1997:

“Silver Futures Prices Leap On Hints of Tight Supplies”,

and again on December 4, 1997 the Wall Street Journal from London reported:

“Silver Surges on Strength In Supply-Demand Status By NEIL BEHRMANN Special to The Wall Street Journal Updated Dec. 5, 1997 12:01 a.m. ET LONDON — Gold may be in the doghouse, but silver is soaring like a bird”.

The reporting of shortages continued to fuel the rally. The Wall Street Journal reported again December 24, 1997 with information feed to them by the manipulators:

“Silver Futures Advance As Inventories Plunge”

I have always wrote about how the “club” coordinated to move a market for a quick gain. That was it. Then they move to the next market. They did not stay and perpetually maintain the same trade.

huntbrothers

So do not confuse coordinated trading with systemic manipulation claiming that is why the metals have not rallied. That is just not true. Look at the dollar and the entire surrounding markets. Take the blinders off for once. Just as the “club” put out news in the press to get people to buy the silver, they did the same going into 1980 telling the world it was the Hunts. They sucked in everyone at the top, changed the rules at the exchange who is in their pocket (corruption) and made it less to short than go long. They then told the CFTC to charge the Hunts for the whole scam.

Why did the CFTC not even question Buffett? The CFTC does what the bankers tell them to do all the time. They would never charge Buffett of Phibro for buying the silver in London to make it appear that the supply collapsed when all they did was move it from NYC to London. It was not used. Buffett then turned around and sold it all – so much for the long-term investment. Members of the “club” can do anything because they hire the lawyers from the CFTC and SEC known as the Revolving Door which is the real problem sustaining corruption. When you have mainstream media, courts, and the regulators all on a short leash held by the club, the club has been able to do as they please for decades.

You want to pretend I am wrong so you can feel better about being wrong? Have a nice day. And by the way, good luck with the losses. Technical Analysis will tell you when markets are being played. If you want to make a difference, stop the “manipulation” nonsense and deal with the real issue – the club owns the them all, media, courts, and regulators.

Dow For Wed December 14, 2016


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We are pushing up against the next resistance level. We need to close above 19970 to imply we will break through the 20k level. It does not yet appear to be ready to burst through the 21K level. Nevertheless, the next main target is still in the 23k level. That is what we have to exceed to get the Phase Transition to 40k.

This Is What Happened The Last Time Yellen Hiked Into “Quad Witching”


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As The Fed and quad-witch looms (and Dow 20k is within reach), the relationship between US equity and volatility complex appears to breaking down again…

Just as we saw last week, VIX and stocks are rising together…

 

But, here’s a reminder what happened the last time The Fed hiked into Quad Witch…

 

The Dow was down 700 points from post-Yellen exuberance… Nasdaq broke 5,000; Dow nears 17,000; and S&P 2,000 was defended with valor…

 

Leaving everything Red for the week…

 

It’s different this time though.

Peak Euphoria: Dow Shy Of Record Overbought


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With the Dow Jones less than 100 points away from 20,000, it is moot to say that the only sentiment driving the market here, with the S&P trading at 25x actual GAAP P/E, is adrenaline and pure euphoria.

Just last night, we showed that the Dow was the most overbought in the past 20 years, while options traders have never been more bullish. Today, following the Dow’s surge right out of the gates, it is safe to say that the “Industrial” average, where Goldman Sachs has been the star performer, and which as of last night, was more overbought on just 4 previous occasions in the past century, is at record euphoria.

Putting similar RSI levels in comparison: August 1927, June 1944, July 1955, November 1996, and now December 2016… after each of the previous spikes, stocks fell back 4 to 5% within days.

India’s Gold Confiscation & Turkey’s War on Currency


modi

QUESTION: Marty; You have been emphasizing not to buy gold bullion but US gold coins such as the $20. You have said that the last time they confiscated gold coin collections were exempt. With the drastic action in India, and the war on currency in Turkey, is this why you have said stocks and collectibles are a safer bet?

ANSWER:There are no safe bets. However, we are in the collapse of socialism. The left is always the most dangerous because they see themselves as victims. Narendra Damodardas Modi is proving to be a very dangerous radical who is extremely misguided. His demonetization of the currency was carried out without even asking the Reserve Bank. His BJP party advocates social conservatism and a foreign policy centered on nationalist principles. Generally, Modi has focused on a largely neoliberal economic policy prioritizing globalization and economic growth over social welfare. In sum, he is subjugating the people to his goal of globalization.

China and Russia saw their revolutions from the left led by the youth. India is trying to eradicate the underground economy. They first eliminated cash, which is preventing small businesses from paying employees. Unemployment will now soar. They are now attacking gold and this is all about creating a forced above ground economy so it can be regulated and taxed. People are reduced to using rice for money.

turkish-lira-1960-2015

Turkey is doing the same thing. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has begun his war on foreign currency because the Turkish lira is being devastated in international markets. His dream of recreating the Ottoman Empire will fail. He has lost the confidence of the people as well as the world. He is saying anyone who has $1 bills is a traitor. He is telling the population to convert their foreign currency to Turkish lira out of patriotism.

Lobbying Moves into High Gear Against Fed Rate Hike


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The lobbying is off and running is super-high gear to stop the Fed from raising rates once again. Governments all over the world have a very myopic view and focused only on the next quarter, or the next election. The Reserve Bank of India also fears that the US Fed’s impending interest rise would affect the external value of the rupee. Again the IMF behind the curtain is on its needs. Any depreciation of the rupee as a result of capital outflows would only worsen the balance of payments for India and expose the insane policies of Modi who did not even consult the RBI before demonetizing the currency.

Anyone with half a brain in economics knows that the worst thin you can do to create a depression is cause the velocity of money to decline. If people hoard and do not spend, the economy implodes. Modi is trying to end the cash economy, but he has ensured unemployment will now soar because small businesses cannot pay their people.Expect at least another 400,000 people to lose their jobs and people are forced to use rice as money.

Additionally, a rate hike in USA will send the rupee down and that will be feeding inflation due to rise in prices of imported commodities. Inflationary expectations are real keeping food prices high posing a threat to domestic price stability and external value of rupee. The RBI declined to lower rates looking at the prospects that the USA may raise rates so high rates are necessary to try to stem the outflow of capital.

Goldman President Gary Cohn Accepts NEC Director Role


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As reported last week, Trump had offered Goldman Sachs president and COO the job of his top economic advisor, as Director of the National Economic Council Director. Moments ago CNBC reported that, as expected, Cohn has accepted the role.

From CNBC:

  Goldman Sachs executive Gary Cohn is expected to accept the directorship of the National Economic Council “at any moment,” a source told CNBC on Monday.

President-elect Donald Trump last week offered the key economic advisor position to Cohn, Goldman’s 56-year-old president and chief operating officer, sources told NBC News. Cohn has been at Goldman for 25 years and previously worked in commodities.

Cohn taking the post would add to Trump’s administration another veteran of the powerful firm he bashed during his campaign. Trump Treasury secretary pick Steven Mnuchin and senior advisor Steve Bannon also worked at Goldman Sachs, which Trump repeatedly attacked on the campaign trail.

He cited Goldman as evidence that corporate and financial interests have influence over politicians and criticized former opponent Sen. Ted Cruz for taking a loan from the firm.

The National Economic Council, which Cohn would lead, is meant to “coordinate policy-making for domestic and international issues, to coordinate economic policy advice for the president, to ensure that policy decisions and programs are consistent with the president’s economic goals, and to monitor implementation of the president’s economic policy agenda,” according to the office’s website.

 While we have no reason to doubt Cohn’ patriotism, we are confident that another motivating factor was the ability to sell some his $210 million or so in Goldman shares tax free, saving approximately $80 million in taxes simply for becoming officially a part of the US administration, instead of merely running the country from the shadows.

‘Century’ Bond Collapse Continues As Belgian 2116s Crash 30% From Highs


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While all the headlines have been about 10Y Treasury yields breaking above 2.50% briefly for the first time since September 2014, the bigger news for the world of bond traders is the utter bloodbath in ultra-long duration European bonds.

 

10Y Treasury yields broke above 2.50% this morning…

 

But while US 10Y Bonds have lost around 7% of their value fromn the August highs, it is the ultra-long duration bonds issued by various European nations over the summer that are collapsing…

 

Now back below its issuance price. The question

Global Bond Rout Returns With A Vengeance, Sending 10Y Yields To Highest In Over Two Years


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The global bond rout returned with a bang, sending 10Y US Treasury yields as much as six basis points higher to 2.53%, the highest level in over two years. The selloff happened as oil prices surged by more than 5% following Saturday’s agreement by NOPEC nations agreed to slash production, leading to rising inflation pressures. At last check, the 10Y was trading at 2.505%, up from 2.462% at Friday and on track for its highest close since September 2014, according to Tradeweb.

“There’s been some pretty decent cheapening across global bond markets,” said Craig Collins, managing director of rates trading at Bank of Montreal in London. The spike in oil prices since OPEC announced a cut in output has led to further cheapening, while in Europe “you had the ECB last week, all contributing to the steepening that we’ve seen.”

Japanese bond yields jumped, while Eurozone bonds were weaker across the board, too, with the yield on 10-year German debt up 0.05 percentage point at 0.392%. Germany’s yield curve, as measured by the spread between two- and 30-year bonds reached the steepest since 2014, based on closing prices, while a similar gauge for Japan widened for a fifth day. U.K. 10-year yields climbed three basis points to 1.48 percent, while those on similar-maturity bunds also added four basis points, to 0.40 percent

Even that bastion of negative rates, Switzerland, saw yields spike, fast approaching the psychological 0% barrier.

“It does seem to be oil-driven, but clearly the bearish sentiment around fixed income prevails,” Mitul Patel, head of interest rates at Henderson Global Investors, told Reuters.

Another fundamental catalyst behind the bond weakness remains uncertainty over Trump’s policies: the rise in oil process adds to a general selloff in government bonds that gathered pace following the election of Donald Trump in November. Investors expect Mr. Trump’s policies of cutting taxes and increasing infrastructure spending to lead to higher growth and inflation. Those policies may also encourage the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a faster clip than previously expected, which would likely hit bonds. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates at its meeting this week for the first time in a year.

Treasurys registered their largest five-week gain in yields for six years on Friday after investors sold. The Treasury bond market will face a further test this week with a series of debt auctions. Sales of three-year notes and 10-year notes are scheduled for later Monday, followed by an auction of bonds with 30-year maturities on Tuesday. That will increase the supply of bonds at the end of the year, a period when some investors are reluctant to put money to work and many have grown wary of rising yields.

Adding to the pressure, hedge funds and other large speculators raised bearish bets on 10-year Treasuries to the highest in almost two years last week, more than doubling them to a net 228,604 contracts, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Technical analysts believe that a sustained break in Treasury yields above 2.5% would open up an attempt at 3% according to Imre Speizer from Westpac Banking Corp. Forecasters in a Bloomberg survey see German bund yields climbing to 0.6 percent by end-2017. That said, both JPM and Goldman have warned that 10Y yields approaching or rising above 2.75% is where the equity rally will fizzle as tighter financial conditions from rising rates will overcome the favorable equity momentum. That level is now just 25 bps away and may be hit in the coming days.

Maduro Stunner: Venezuela Eliminates Half Its Paper Money After Pulling Largest Bill From Circulation


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Having observed the economic chaos to emerge as a result of India’s shocking Nov. 8 demonetization announcement, and perhaps confident it can do better, today president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, Latin America’s most distressed economy, mired in an economic crisis and facing hyperinflation, likewise shocked the nation when he announced on state TV that just like India, Venezuela would pull its highest denominated, 100-bolivar bill (which is worth about two U.S. cents on the black market), from circulation over the next 72 hours, ahead of the introduction of new, higher-value notes, as large as 20,000.

“I have decided to take out of circulation bills of 100 bolivars in the next 72 hours,” Maduro said. “We must keep beating the mafias.”

To this we would add “and cue economic chaos”, but since this is Venezuela, that’s a given.

The surprise move, announced by Maduro during an hours-long speech, is likely to worsen a cash crunch in Venezuela, and lead the largely-cash based economy to a state of paralysis. Maduro said the 100-bolivar bill will be taken out of circulation on Wednesday and Venezuelans will have 10 days after that to exchange those notes at the central bank.

Critics immediately slammed the move, which Maduro said was needed to combat contraband of the bills at the volatile Colombia-Venezuela border, as economically nonsensical, adding there would be no way to swap all the 100-bolivar bills in circulation in the time the president has allotted. Indeed, if India is any example, Venezuela – whose economy is far worse than that of India, the world’s fastest growing emerging market – may have just signed its own economic death warrant.

According to central bank data, in November there were more than six billion 100-bolivar bills in circulation, 48 percent of all bills and coins. In other words, Venezuela just eliminated half the paper cash in circulation.

Authorities on Thursday are due to start releasing six new notes and three new coins, the largest of which will be worth 20,000 bolivars, less than $5 on the streets. No official inflation data is available for 2016 though many economists see it in triple digits. Economic consultancy Ecoanalitica estimates annual inflation this year at more than 500%, close to the IMF’s estimate.