Finally, the Dow made new highs in the face of constant calls for a crash. This past week, in a horse race we would call it a trifecta where the Dow Jones Industrials,  S&P 500,and  the NASDAQ all made new record highs.  This sent a bunch of analysts to look again and began to proclaim that this was the first time that all three major indices have reached new highs on the same day since 1999. They then look at the charts and pronounce that the 1999 rally lasted only until 2000 and then crashed. Of course that was the DOT.COM Bubble and there was a massive wave of retail investor in the market back then compared to today.
There really is nothing similar whatsoever to this latest pronouncement. As always, people will try to reduce everything to turn upon a single reason. Here is a chart of the S&P500 and the crash of 1998, which was the Long-Term Capital Management debacle and the fall of Russian debt.

The market again peaked exactly to the day of the ECM back then. However, the crash was 58 days and then in 32 days the market rebound to the former high. Note that the there were three lows with the last and final low creating a Slingshot move, As I have warned, these type of moves are the most powerful and very necessary to propel any market to new record highs. You simply must trap the majority on the wrong side of the trend,

The DOT.COM Bubble was the last great capital inflow from around the world. Both Europeans and Asians were pouring money into the DOT.COM Bubble – it was by no means a local event. This move was the classic Phase Transition. However, when we look at that in terms of the Euro (which we recreated using the same formula extending back in time), we get the same Phase Transition rally

We do not see a stark difference between the patterns in dollars as we see in euros. Hence, this attracted foreign capital creating an explosive rally which we call the Phase Transition.

Now, when we look at the current position of the NASDAQ both in dollars and euros, we see something different. In dollars we made the new highs. However, when looking at this is euros, we do not yet see new highs being made. As always, things are not always as they seem to the local observer.

So the last magic formula going around was the 9 day consecutive decline which was supposed to lead to a crash. OOPS. Here might be another brilliant observation.

This is the list of panics I discovered in the library at Princeton University. I simply added the period of 224 years from 1683 to 1907 which yield 8.615 as the common frequency dividing that period by the 26 events. I did not expect this to produce events to the day. The mere fact that events would happen precisely to the day as they did in 1981, 1985, 1987, 2001, 2002, and 2007 just to mention a few, beat the odds that this was somehow just coincidence or dumb luck. It has been fascinating discovering how this frequency has dominated history from ancient times to the present.

From the collapse of the Roman Monetary System to just 8.6 years or six wave creating 51.6 years intervals like the collapse of the Roman Follis. It is fascinating to say the least that such a calculation has been so powerful throughout nature, humanity, and destiny.

Nevertheless, by dumb luck, this list of Panics was international and not relegated to a single isolated country. With 1683 for a start, that was the financial panic that disrupted Europe for the Ottoman invasion of Europe with the attempt to take the capital of Europe, the seat of the Holy Roman Emperor in Vienna. So where this calculation began, obviously included was as well.

QUESTION:

Mr Armstrong, thank you for all that you are doing. I was hoping to get your view on the Indian government banning large denomination bills. What do you think is the reason and why such a small window of time to get them turned in?
PB

ANSWER: Unfortunately, the theory is that cash prevents governments from maintaining negative interest rates. They want to “tax” the mere possession of money. Eliminate cash, and then they think they can stimulate the economy without creating inflation and they will be in total control. They view that the reason Marxist/Keynesian philosophy failed is because of cash. People can hoard money and thus exit the system. They cannot stop that unless they eliminate money.

This is what the NEW AGE of economics is all about. They next level of taxing you for merely having money. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced that the 500 ($7.60) and 1,000 rupee banknotes will be withdrawn from the financial system overnight. This is all about taxes.

Everyone should pay attention here. Governments can simply cancel a currency overnight. The ECB wants to eliminate the 500 euro note and Larry Summers is arguing to end the $100 bill in the USA. These people want to tax everything and see that interest rates can be negative forever if they get rid of cash. They are totally insane.