Tag Archives: Pi Day

Aug 23 2023

The Business Cycle Always Wins


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re- Posted Aug 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

While some economists are flipping from pessimistic to increasingly optimistic the US will beat inflation without a near-term recession, some still preach the standard doom & gloom prophecy for the economy. Everything in their field always turns on the Keynesian Model of interest rates, with the standard fallout from higher interest rates always will depress the economy, including real estate and stock trading. They will even point out that the Fed’s forecasts are typically wrong but never look in the mirror themselves.

The economic profession clings to Keynesian Economics because they have no alternative. So they have a broken clock, and it is always high noon, or perhaps it is midnight. That depends on which side of the bed they got out of that morning. Even Keynes began in 1924, arguing that economists can manipulate society to eliminate recessions. But before he died, even Keynes admitted that everything he fought against, the business cycle, was simply wrong.

Even Arthur Burns, who was the head of the Federal Reserve when Bretton Woods collapsed, concluded that Keynesian economics had failed. The business cycle always defeated every theory economists devised to try to eliminate it. That was even Karl Marx’s goal of Communism. Seize all private assets, and that would terminate the business cycle. Well, even Communism failed.

Now we have our modern-day Marx, Klaus Schwab, who is trying to force the entire world to adopt his version of communism where once again, “You will own nothing and be happy.” Schwab has failed to understand that ALL social-economic advancement comes from curiosity. If people have no incentive to dream, they will never advance. That is why communism fell, and Schwab does not get it because academics, more often than not, are still pursuing this dream of ultimate power to defeat the business cycle.

To force his theory upon the world, we must become like cattle — herded and denied our very freedom. To Schwab, privacy must be terminated. The state must control everything to defeat the business cycle. These people seem to want to play God because they clearly have no respect for the very nature they pretend to be so concerned about, and we, too, are part of nature.

I went behind the Berlin Wall in the late ’70s with a friend to visit the family trapped there in East Germany. His cousin took us around, and if anyone were close to us, she would say how wonderful the government was in caring for them, for indeed, they owned nothing. As soon as nobody was around, she cursed them in every language she knew.

I did my research at the Firestone Library at Princeton University. They had many newspapers on microfilm. This was where I discovered the list of panics that led me to what became the Economic Confidence Model. I became friends with a professor there. He said that I reminded him of Einstein. I was shocked. I said I was not a physics genius. That is when he explained that my curiosity in figuring out how the world economy functioned was the same trait that Einstein attributed his discoveries to – curiosity.

Over the years, that encounter opened my eyes to understand why Communism collapsed, and this is what Schwab and his World Economic Forum are trying once again – total control. That is what Communism prevented — human individuality. Without CURIOSITY, nothing will ever be discovered. If I were not curious about why civilizations rose and fell, which became obvious from history, I would never have discovered the Economic Confidence Model.

Schwab’s very idea of how to control the world is what fails. You cannot dehumanize society, for the elite are NOT the people who discover things – they pretend to sit in judgment over those who do create things. I have observed this not just in academia and governments but at the corporate level as well.

I have worked with some of the largest companies around the world. The boards tend to get occupied by accountants and lawyers. Far too often, they get rid of the people with curiosity who founded the company. Without them, they lose the creativity that made the company in the first place; Project Veritas is dead. I will never donate 10 cents. In 1997, Jobs returned to Apple as CEO after acquiring NeXT. He was primarily responsible for reviving Apple, which was on the verge of bankruptcy because it lacked the vision and curiosity of a person who creates rather than dictates. This is EXACTLY why communism failed. They eliminated the creators and their curiosity.

I know some non-programmers think Bill Gates built a bigger company than Steve Jobs. However, it is well known among programmers that Bill Gates didn’t write the operating system which made Microsoft known as DOS. Gary Kildall (1942-1994) wrote CP/M, an operating system that ran on early microcomputers based on 8-bits. IBM perhaps wouldn’t make a deal with Kildall. Bill Gates bought what became MS-DOS from Seattle Computer Products for $50,000 and licensed it to IBM.

Gates’ mother, Mary, was a board member of United Way of King County. Also on the board was John Opel, then-chairman of IBM. That was his entry to IBM. DOS was actually written by 22-year-old Tim Paterson (born June 1, 1956). How much of Kildall’s intellectual property he appropriated is a matter of some dispute. IBM later did make a deal with Kildall by some accounts after threatening to sue IBM because DOS infringed on his copyright. The early IBM PC was sold with both CP/M and DOS operating systems, but CP/M was sold at a much higher price. Many never were aware of the two systems. Most buyers chose MS-DOS, which became the standard or were steered toward MS-DOS by IBM.

Gate’s reputation has always been cloudy. His co-founder of Microsoft, Paul Allen (1953-2018), wrote in his memoirs that Bill Gates is a ruthless schemer who demeaned his employees and conspired to rip off his business partner. Bill Gates could not compete against Steve Jobs as a programmer. Steve Jobs created his own computer and software from scratch.

This is why Klaus Schwab thinks Gates is the #1 entrepreneur of the century. He was able to manipulate the people and expand the business on an operating system he never invented and bought for $50,000 from someone who was the real creator with curiosity, not Bill Gates. Everything he has done since then is always about manipulating society to achieve his ideals, not science. Sorry, Gates does not even reach the honor stage of the true entrepreneur. That is reserved for creators ONLY!

Aug 21 2023

The 2032 Paradigm Shift


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Aug 21, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, I have tried to convince some family members of the deep state and the trend in front of their eyes. No matter what I say, they ignore it and call me crazy. Should I give up?

DP

ANSWER: Look, the vast majority are simply the herd. They prefer not to think analytically. They feel comfortable thinking the government really cares. They still want to live the dream that Santa Claus is real. I would estimate that this represents at least 70% of the population, and at times it has risen to as high as 85%. I based that on simply looking at the election cycle. No president has ever won even 70% of the popular vote. The real decision makes, I would put at about 10%. They are the independents who vote on issues and will vote for either party. The rest are core Democrats and Republicans.

Physiologically, the need to remain as part of the herd. You will NEVER convince them. You can only preach to the choir. Looking at history, this will change, but it must come with pain and sorrow that forces them to reassess their life. Consequently, do not try to beat your head against a brick wall. Just say, when you open your eyes and mind, call me. They will remember that. They MUST come voluntarily. You cannot drag them any more than you can drag a horse to water.

Historically, there comes a time for a paradigm shift. That is when we should see at least 40% of the people who then support change. In the case of the American Revolution, Thomas Paine wrote Common Sense. That publication moved the people finally, and an uprising against the king. His work was so influential that the English struck tokens targeting him with the slogan:

END OF PAIN

As we move closer and closer to 2032, we will see this shift post-2024. We should begin to witness this paradigm shift toward anti-government form by 2026. It will most likely explode in 2029. This is all necessary for the people must come voluntarily. It will be 2032 when we witness perhaps as much as 60%-75% of the people demanding the end of Republic forms of government.

You will NEVER get 100% consensus on anything. Some people ask me what would happen if everyone used Socrates. I respond nothing different. But the question is rather absurd. There will NEVER be such a consensus. Here is a colonial note from George promising it is back by confiscating the assets of those who supported the king who could NOT voluntarily depart from the herd.

Categories: ECM

Jul 23 2023

Why Academia Cannot Forecast Anything


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Jul 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I have been impressed by your Economic Confidence Model. You said there would be no recession until after 2024. You were really the only one who said that. Now Bloomberg reported that the forecasters who “were first out of the box to predict a US recession” are now hedging their bets. They mention Deutsche Bank Vice Chair of Research Peter Hooper and Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan. However, Nomura Securities International senior economist Aichi Amemiya still says a recession is coming, but “it’s getting to be a close call.”

Not one of the significant houses seems ever to get it right. I just wanted to say your model shines a light on the whole analysis field. I can’t wait for your Geometry of Time.

DF

REPLY:  Thank you. It has been a most interesting experience. As I said, this is something I bumped into. I did not go looking for such a model. It was something that found me, as many say it was my destiny, even growing up in a house with the address of 314 South Lippincott Ave, in Maple Shade, New Jersey.

These are the books I am trying to get out this year. The Geometry of Time will be next year. The Mark Anthony book should be on Amazon and Barnes & Noble in a couple of weeks. That is, using the coinage to demonstrate what the real story is behind Cleopatra. She was certainly not black as NETFLIX presented to rewrite history for the WOKE agenda. This is very similar to the USA using Ukraine in a proxy war to destroy Russia. Here, Cleopatra funded a war that the coinage was so massive; it still accounted for 20% of the money supply 100 years later.

The Modern Analysis is nearly finished. This goes precisely to the subject you have brought up. This is a reference book on my version of technical analysis, which is different from the mainstream, but it goes into the whole problem of analysis used by academics, which is blinding us to the reality of our actions.

The De-Dolarization demonstrates how this entire nonsense that hyperinflation is caused by just increasing the money supply, which is like saying the Great Depression took place simply because the stock market went down. Here too, the lack of any real investigative analysis has doomed the Eurozone because of the distorted view of the real cause of hyperinflation.

The Geometry of Time will be the companion to Modern Analysis for the 21st Century. This will deal with cycles from the how to the why. It has been academia’s refusal to embrace cyclical analysis and any form of technical analysis that prevent any worthwhile forecasting. This is why people like Larry Summers admit they cannot forecast the economy’s future.

Jul 14 2023

Part of Oregon Wishes to Join Idaho


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Jul 14, 2023 by Martin Armstron

The “Greater Idaho” movement is gaining traction, with 12 counties now voting to secede Oregon to Idaho. This is precisely on target as the US is set to separate into individual states with their own governing bodies. State rights are how the nation was intended, but the politicians do not always represent the views of the people. Oregon has become increasingly liberal in recent years, legalizing drug use (including methamphetamine, heroin, and cocaine), implementing light-on-crime policies, and far-left ideologies in schools and society in general. Oregon is the ninth most expensive state in the US and ranks 33rd in tax burdens despite not having a sales tax. Idaho, in comparison, has the 8th smallest tax burden and leans conservative.

Many may not know, but Oregon’s state lines were slightly adjusted 65 years ago in 1958. State lines may be redrawn with the approval of Congress and state legislatures. There was never a more vital need for state rights than now as two contradictory ideologies permeate America, eliminating what was once a united nation. Those supporting the Greater Idaho movement say that Oregon’s policies no longer represent their beliefs. “Idaho would have the satisfaction of freeing more than 380,000 rural Oregonians from woke progressive blue-state law,” the movement’s website states.

How does Idaho feel about this movement? The same way that people in Florida and Texas feel – do not move here if you’re going to continue to vote for the same policies that ruined your state. Some people truly do not realize that states vastly differ from one another due to political policies.

Another issue is that some of these counties are located in rural areas where jobs are scarce. “You look at the counties that we are proposing to add, they are through the roof. The average of those counties is 45% of those folks are on Medicaid,” Democrat Ilana Rubel said. “You look at the number on free and reduce lunch, in many of the cases its 95%, 100%. These are very, very low income counties folks.” I cannot confirm if her statistics are correct at this time, but yes, it is a problem.

This is a major issue as the east-west Oregon divide is reaching a breaking point. The people wishing to secede do not feel represented by their officials who are implementing increasingly extreme legislation. These movements will become prevalent across the US in the coming years. I say everyone who believes in the far-left ideology should head on over to a ruined blue state and live out their taxed, genderless, homeless, drug and crime-infested socialist version of utopia away from everyone else.

May 17 2023

The 37 Year Cycle


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civilization Re-Posted May 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Well, Sports Illustrated just had to join the BudLight Woke Controversy. I suppose they could have put a Transgender on the cover. So it looks like they decided to stop short of that insanity and chose to put Martha Stewart who is 81 on the cover.

Elle McPhearson, known as the Body, really saw her modeling career take off after making the Sports Illustrated magazine’s annual Swimsuit Issue in 1986. She appeared on the cover a record five times: 1986, 1987, 1988, 1994, and 2006. Girls would line up with the hope of following Elle’s career desperately trying to make the cover of Sports Illustrated.

It is curious, but between the 1986 Cover of Elle & 2023 with Martha Stewart, it is shockingly precisely on time. And as for those who will speculate that Elle and I were somehow connected, her father was one of our Australian partners. No, I never dated Elle. The story that circulated in Tokyo was funny but completely exaggerated. Elle began a clothing line and sent me samples of her line of Men’s underway.  That was the extent of that and some were claiming why would she be sending me men’s underwear It was her clothing line. That was it. Not personal shopping for my birthday.

Interestingly, that is an important cycle interval and the fact it is impacting Sports Illustrated is very disturbing. Yes, it was my famous off-the-cuff forecast that Authentic would win the Kentucky Derby back in 2020. It was a long shot, so they said. But It was the third Derby win for the Jockey John Velazquez. Yet Authentic became the first horse to win Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes in 37 years.

It was October 1986 when an agreement was then reached to meet in Reykjavík, Iceland, between Gorbachev and President Reagan limiting nuclear weapons. This October will be 37 years. In January 1987, Gorbachev called for democratization: the infusion of democratic elements such as multi-candidate elections into the Soviet political process. A 1987 conference convened by Soviet economist Leonid Abalkin, a key adviser to Gorbachev, concluded: “Deep transformations in the management of the economy cannot be realized without corresponding changes in the political system.” We are more likely to see the end of that and a turn back to nationalism in Russia as a consequence of this war instigated by the Neocons. That will be in 2024.

This is not looking good at all.  The 5th 309.6-year cycle from the Fall of Rome in 476AD also comes due in 2024. I understand there are people who are trying to promote patriotism to retake the United States and return it to the days when agreements were honored and the Constitution stood for something. I appreciate those sentiments, but unfortunately, our computer says clearly that they will fail for without the PAIN, there is no REFORM = GAIN. Just as I have warned that these dark forces seeking to impose their totalitarian view of government will also fail. Neither side will prevail and we must simply CRASH & BURN and that is required if we are to recreate a new world post-2032.

Real Woman

This WOKENESS is simply part of the strategy to divide and conquer. Keep the people divided and they will not ban together against government. This entire Transgender insanity is very serious. There are only about 1.6 million people in the US who identify as Transgender. The US population is just under 335 million people. This is less than 0.5%. Yet, girls have been denied sports careers and mothers are no longer moths but birthing people. All because 1.6 million want to be called a woman so we can no longer define what is a woman. So those who give birth and reduce to just a birthing person. Again, all of this is to undermine our society and divide it so profoundly to ensure that we will never band together to restore the United States and the original intent of the Constitution.

Gorgeous Thai ladyboys, Pattaya, Thailand. 31.10.2020

In Thailand, the sex-change capital of the world, Ladyboys are very common. They do NOT call themselves “women” but refer to themselves as “ladyboys” and are everywhere. It is no big deal. If you meet a girl, you just ask if they are a ladyboy and they will simply reply yes or no. So why here in the USA do we have to change the definition of a “woman” to accommodate less than half of one percent? I don’t think calling my mother, hey birthing person of mine, has the same ring.

Just as former Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg made clear, Roe v Wade was NEVER about women’s rights – it was about eugenics and reducing the population. This is ALSO behind this entire LGBQT movement to teach children even in 3 grade that they can choose to be LGBQT and push them to even change their gender. This is the same agenda as abortion – reduce the population.

Even more seriously, the climate change agenda. This is all about reducing our standard of living and there is no science behind this because they refuse to look beyond the mid-19th century so they can blame everything on the industrial revolution.

The only way for this Great Reset, which they have taken from our Economic Confidence Model predicting the collapse of our current monetary and political system come 2032, they are hoping to push us into a new age of totalitarianism. Civilization expands with warming periods, and it declines as we head into cold periods and darkness.

Apr 18 2023

Why Does the ECM Work On So Many Things?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Apr 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT #1: Hi Martin, corn also turned nicely on the ECM:

JB

COMMENT #2: Hello Marty, I just want to point out that the Japanese yen broke really hard on the 10th. Not sure if this will prove to be a precursor of what is to come.

Thanks from Tokyo, your old home ground.

AS

COMMENT #3: Well the ECM also marked the reversal in trend in the 30-year bond. It peaked at 134 and fell to 130 by the end of the week. That was just remarkable.

Colin

COMMENT #4: Martin; is this chart real that people are sending around claiming it was Benner’s work?

Mat

ANSWER: As far as this chart of Brenner’s Cycle being real, the answer is no Someone has made it up and signed his name. They have at least extended his cycle correctly. The last time someone tried that they skewed the cycle to make it look like it forecast the Depression 1932 low.

When the WSJ published it, it showed 1932 instead of 1931. Brenner did not extend this out in this manner. What is important to understand is that Brenner was a farmer and farmers understand the cycles in nature. Economists and governments pretend they can smooth out the cycle and eliminate the booms and busts.

The business cycle always wins as both former chairmen of the Federal Reserve conceded – Arthur Burns and Paul Volcker.

Back during the 19th century when Brenner was observing the business cycle, it was still based on commodities. Kondratieff took the same data. I believe the reason WHY the Economic Confidence Model has been so accurate is that it was based on a list of Panics – not one sector of the economy. Therefore, the ECM incorporates weather as Brenner and Kondratieff did by using the commodity sector. Yet just that the ECM was derived from financial panics, it was not based on any one specific type so it strangely seems to have incorporated the whole gambit.

Furthermore, all previous cyclical analysis was based on just a single market like stocks. They have failed because they could not account for the external influence of a contagion. The fact that this list began with the Turks’ siege of Vienna, means that the list was also influenced by war and from an international perspective.

This is a fascinating subject that I will explore in far more detail in my coming book.

Apr 17 2023

Sources


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion Re-Posted Apr 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You are renowned for your sources. You said the IMF was planning to replace the dollar with its own international digital currency. You targeted Ukraine a year before anyone heard of the country. You said Ukraine was losing the war and they had lost 100,000 troops when people said that was Russian propaganda. That turned out to be classified as Ukrainian information. These Pentagon papers confirm everything you have said a year ago. Israel was reluctant to send anything to Ukraine when everyone said Zelensky was Jewish. The list goes on and on.

My question is, why do you have information from around the world before anyone else?

HP

ANSWER: That is hard to say. I think what has emerged over the decades is that people are sharing information from all over to get a true picture of what is honestly happening. People come to me because I put out the truth. Back when they were forming the Euro, it has come out that the Bundesbank was against it. They were providing all the notes and discussions going on because they also know we have the largest institutional audience of anyone. It is never my opinion. Everyone has opinions and that means nothing. We are well read because it is not my personal opinion. I really cannot address this subject any more than that.

Apr 4 2023

The 6th Wave – Do We Ever Learn?


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Apr 4, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:
Hi,

Have you come across a period in history that at the end of the sixth wave, after the political system dies, during the next six waves, human mankind learned from its past errors and corrected it?

ANSWER: Actually, the answer is NO. The fall of the Minoan Civilization brought in a dark age with the invasion of the Sea Peoples from the North who were driven south by climate and conquered all the civilizations during the Bronze Age except for Egypt. Reliefs show the Egyptians in heated battles against the Sea Peoples.

Everything in this universe is fractal. It is a repetitive pattern of self-referral. You have children and they are a blend of both parents’ DNA – self-referral. Thus, what makes 2032 extremely important, is that it is the Sixth Wave since the last upheaval of the overthrow of the Monarchy.

The Roman Empire peaked with the reign of Marcus Aurelius (161-180AD). We know from Chinese documents that he had even sent an ambassador to China which was the first contact.

However, 6 of the 51.6 waves (which are 6 of the 8.6-year) in turn build in a fractal manner into a 309.6-year wave and then we have 6 waves of that which form 1857.6.  There are then 6 waves of that building into 11,145.6-year waves. About 11,600 years ago (9,600 BC)  was an abrupt period of global warming which accelerated the glacial retreat that was the beginning of the Holocene geological epoch. That is when we begin to find the domestication of sheep and evidence of settlements such as Jericho dating back to 9,600 BC.  That wave was the Mesolithic era which refers to the final period of hunter-gatherer cultures in Europe and Western Asia. This was between the end of the Last Glacial Maximum and the Neolithic Revolution. This is also why in back-testing the ECM, it became very clear that it incorporates nature and the swings back and forth on climate change.

There is the period of the Megalithic Monuments in Europe. We do not know why these Neolithic and Copper Age creators were motivated to expend such energy in their creation. Some of these structures appear to have been graves. The sheer weight of the stones shows a very determined culture whose motives are lost to the haze of the period we refer to as prehistory.

Recent studies have implied that these megalithic monuments across Europe originated in northwest France, and the practice of building them spread along the continent’s coastlines in several migratory waves. They first appeared during the second half of the fifth millennium BC. That was about 4300 years before the invention of coinage.

The oldest known city dates back to 6700BC, Catal Huyuk, located in modern Turkey. I have studied the economy of this period. It has all the trappings of modern-day civilization. There are houses with murals on the walls. This confirmed that there was an artist trade. There were a lot of female deities found so there was some artistic trade that carved these out of marble as well as clay. There was no indication of money being used so it was most likely a barter-based society with some people making tools and others growing crops.

Food was money in the shape of olives, dates, seeds, or animals and we also know that financing, lending for interest, dates back to c. 5000 BC, if not even earlier. The fall of Rome prompted the return of the Sin of Usury – denial of interest. Much of the blame for the fall of Rome was attributed to corruption of that sort. Capitalism is born with the Protestant Reformation which allowed Christians to earn money from interest. Martin Luther was funded by Christians who wanted to get into the banking field which had been restricted to the Jews.

What we do see at these events is typically it is a knee-jerk reaction to whatever was in place, the reaction is in the opposite direction. We have gone through a revolution against Monarchy. That led to Republicanism. This time perhaps we move toward Democracy. We should have the right to vote  – do we go to war – Yes or No! Some Neocons should not make that decision and then we are imprisoned and called a traitor if you do not die on some battlefield that they decide should take place. This is not any different than Monarchy where King Louis XIV (1643-1715) lamented on his deathbed – “I have been too fond of war.” These people play a sport with the common people as the pawns on the chessboard.

Mar 26 2023

Interview: The Perfect Storm


Armstrong Economic Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Mar 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

To Check out the video click here to view my most recent interview with Outer Limits: “The Perfect Storm.”

Commentary from Ryan McCormick:

Legendary economic forecaster and pro-freedom advocate Martin Armstrong once again appears on the Outer Limits of Inner Truth Podcast to discuss: The neoconservative agenda and the likelihood for war with Russia, Political corruption in Ukraine and the impact on global perception of the United States, And why the 2023 Financial Crisis is colliding with important cyclical targets regarding war, which may result in a two-prong panic of unprecedented significance. Marin also shares his perspective on Alan Turing's groundbreaking work on the mathematical order behind Morphogenesis and offers an updated outlook on how the US will breakup.
Mar 18 2023

Chaos & the Secret Order to Everything


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Economics is the ONLY field where cycles are denied. Moreover, people do not even comprehend how COMPLEXITY emerges. Alan Turing was a brilliant mathematician who is probably the father of computers for he built the really first computer to break the German Enigma Machine. The man was Alan Turing. He invented the computer and broke the German Enigma Code. You can watch the movie The Imitation Game to get a general idea of his achievement.

But Turing did something even far more astonishing. He had a theory that within nature, what appears to be chaos was just a mask that hides a natural order. He was the first to think that there might be a mathematical order that defines nature. There is a mysterious aspect of Morphogenesis. All the cells in an embryo are identical. Then the cells begin to clump together and actually become different from each other. The mystery was how identical cells know to form different things such as skin, eyes, brain, or bone. There is no central command center.

Turing 1952 Morphogenesis

The phenomenon of Morphogenesis is what is the essence of mystery. This process becomes self-organization. Before Turning, absolutely nobody had any idea of how this process even worked. It was also a great mystery of life itself. It was Turning who published on March 15th, 1952, the Ides of March 3.14, his mathematical explanation of Morphogenesis. Turning’s formula was revealing for it uncovered a secret order behind the mask of chaos. Despite being one of the most brilliant minds ever and all his contributions even breaking the German code, because he was a homosexual, a judge order him to prison or subject him to hormone injections to cure him. He committed suicide on June 7th, 1954 because of the abuse of the government which ignored all his contributions.

What Turning discovered in nature, was that there is a hidden order in which identical cells then change and become specific parts of the end result without any specific coding. What would appear to be simplistic formulas, suddenly emerged into a complexity that baffled the human mind. This is what I discovered in economics. A secret cycle that defines the complexity which we also cannot see with the naked eye.

This is why different cycles unfold in all the sectors such as metals, commodities, share markets, currency, bonds, etc, and when they align that is when we get the superposition events. I will explain more in my forthcoming book on the Economic Confidence Model. One bubble will be in the real estate markets, such as 1792 and 2007-2009. Other bubbles took place in commodities such as in 1919. Still, others took place in currency markets and capital concentration such as the 1989 peak in the Nikkei in Japan or the 1929 bubble in the USA.

In 2020, we warned that this cycle would be a debt crisis wave, but also a commodity wave with rising inflation and interest rates into 2024. We must understand that each bubble is different for it all depends upon the cyclical aspect of that particular sector and does that line up with others to produce a super-wave that becomes the bubble.

Right now, we have a crisis in banking because far too many banks have just listened to the mainstream media and failed to understand that interest rates would be rising – not declining. Since 2020 we have been warning that interest rates were at a 5,000-year low. A simple bounce to just 5% would be devastating. Many banks attend our conferences because they are sophisticated and do not make hedging decisions based on the latest headline on MSNBC.

I am working hard on having Socrates articulate the complexity. I hope to roll this out this year – ASAP. My personal interpretation is generally on point, but not always. What looked to be dominated by geopolitical events in April, appears to be combined with the banking crisis, and in all honestly, I could not imagine that the FDIC even considered not covering 85% of the deposits. I should not have had to even explain that doing that would mean that small businesses have systemic risk in all banks. I actually had to explain there would be a major banking crisis in April that would make the Great Depression appear like a dress rehearsal.

As such, this banking crisis does not appear to be finished. It will still move into April 10th or so. Then the ICC issued a criminal indictment for Putin when they have no such jurisdiction by their own authority. They have become yet another political tool of the Neocons determined to create World War III.

We have entered the period of COMPLEXITY where we are not looking at a single sector in a bubble. We are looking at a really dangerous contagion of COMPLEXITY and the Neocons could care less about the economics. They have control of the White House and this is their chance and they are NOT backing down.

God help humanity!