The latest National Quinnipiac Poll of Democrat presidential candidates reflects a significant surge by Kamala Harris, a static position for Elizabeth Warren, and a slight drop for Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.

Kamala Harris went from 7% in April to 20% in July. Elizabeth Warren went from 15% in April to 14% in July.  Joe Biden went from 24% in April to 22% in July.  Bernie Sanders went from 16% in April to 13% in July. That’s the top four.

Certainly Harris seems to be the biggest winner from the first debate; however, the biggest loser is not Joe Biden.  In April -at the time of his campaign launch- Pete Buttigieg was at 14%, now he’s down to 4%.  Buttigieg is the biggest loser.  As anticipated, all other candidates are essentially irrelevant.

Quinnipiac – […] “Round 1 of the Democratic debates puts Senator Kamala Harris and former Vice President Joe Biden on two different trajectories, as support for Harris surges but continues to slip for Biden.

Biden’s once commanding lead has evaporated. There are other red flags for him in areas where he still leads, including double digit drops among Democrats and Democratic leaners who view him as the best leader, or as the best candidate to defeat President Trump in 2020,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.

Democrats and Democratic leaners were also asked which candidate they thought had the best chance of winning against President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election, regardless of who they support in the primary. Biden tops the field with 42 percent, which is a drop from the 56 percent that he received on April 30. Harris comes in a distant second with 14 percent in today’s poll, up from 2 percent in April. Sanders receives 13 percent, and no other candidate reaches double digits.  (See full polling results)

The media is most certainly doing what they can to lift Kamala Harris, a review of most media stories show a narrative of appreciating value amid the influential social circle of mainstream democrat media reporters.

Biden and Bernie are fraught with the problem of toxic male whiteness as expressed by the overwhelming majority of activists within the DNC ranks.

Bernie currently has the Communist, Socialist, Antifa and Occupy groups defending him. Unfortunately for the jackbooted moonbats, the ‘free stuff’ alignment with AOC is now a liability.  The more AOC goes stupid the more it hurts the dem-socialists.

Joe Biden is a candidate adrift in a massive political ocean sitting on a pool float, trying to survive.

Elizabeth Warren has the beltway FemGen limo-liberals as a pretty solid constituency; however attempts to grow into the ‘ima-git-me-a-beer‘ base are fraught with a lack of authenticity.

Kamala Harris has assembled all of the disparate one percent groups into a sizable enough coalition of professional grievance to outlast Warren’s lack of minority status.

By the end of August the Final Four will make up the viability field.  Currently that looks like Biden, Harris, Warren and Bernie.  However, as Biden and Bernie are dispatched the Harris -vs- Warren situation will come down to drop-out endorsements.

Obviously momentum is a temporary condition and things could change, but Biden needs to give a good performance at the next debate or his deflating pool float will drown him.

Here’s the trend data specific to Quinnipiac polling:

This is sad…. hopefully those around him -who care- will stop this soon; before it gets embarrassing for him.   Former Vice-President Joe Biden appears on CNN for a friendly interview about his current candidacy.  Unfortunately what follows is an exhibition in Biden’s growing cognition issues.

Mr. Biden, referencing his position that Russia was meddling in the Brexit, U.S. and EU elections in 2015 and 2016, says those examples would not have happened under his watch:

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This is only one snippet of the interview. However, even in this short snippet it’s obvious something is wrong. Candidate Biden is losing his ability to cognitively compartmentalize multiple aspects of a conversation simultaneously.

Biden will not be the presidential nominee of the 2020 Democrats. That’s clear now.

There have been stories about how the Biden team is increasingly working to keep him away from too much scrutiny. This interview with Chris Cuomo is a case study in: why.

Within political circles and debate prep there is a process called “murder-boarding”, where you put your candidate in front of a pretend panel of three questioners. As the candidate answers a specific question the job of the two participants is to interrupt and inject related questions prior to the conclusion of the original thought response.

If Biden is in the next debate; and if Crazy, Spank-Me and How begin to challenge Biden during his responses; he will not be able to get through it. He’s done.

Now, the DNC may make the decision, or instruct the other candidates, to back-off the Biden attacks; but that approach has limitations and can only help retain his viability for so long. Eventually the issue will overwhelm the ability of those around him to cover and assist.

There may be some twisted political purpose in assigning Biden the role of lead attack against President Donald Trump, but nothing within that motive will be intended to worry about Biden’s best interests.   He’s in a tenuous space right now.

Candidate Biden cannot compartmentalize thought on-the-fly and then reassemble the short term cognition to continue a train of thought on multiple simultaneous issues. If we can see it, those who would be relying on Biden to campaign and interact with an increasingly narrow focused media apparatus can surely also see it.

In my humble opinion, Joe Biden likely won’t make it to Iowa.