Let’s get real. Washington DC was built on hypocrisy. No matter what decade you look at we find that perhaps more than any other setting, the political environment has always been characterized by organized hypocrisy. Now with the blow-up of Biden having classified materials, Hillary’s private server had classified documents. Now you have people trying to twist things around and claim that the classified documents that Trump had were somehow more related to national security than Biden’s. The spin doctors are working overtime.
When Biden was a senator, he helped kill President Jimmy Carter’s CIA director nominee all because he allegedly mishandled classified materials. The hypocrisy in Washington knows absolutely no limitation.
Even the interpretation of the Constitution by the courts, the press, and politicians leave a lot to be desired. When Jefferson wrote “all men are created equal” in the preamble to the Declaration, people argue about what he meant. Was that individual liberty, or was he speaking collectively to diminish personal liberty? Some argue that Jefferson was not talking about individual equality. He was really talking about how the American colonists, as a people, had the same rights of self-government as other peoples. Therefore, they had a right to declare independence, create new governments and assume their “separate and equal station” among other nations.
Today, if a state wishes to separate, the courts claim they have no such right just as England did during the 18th century. Suddenly, the “all men are created equal” was individual liberty including slaves, and not collectively as a body of people. As you can see, even writing down words that may sound magnanimous, can be flipped around depending on the desired outcome. For example, if you want to outlaw carrots, it becomes simple. Do a study that establishes every person who has EVER eaten a carrot had eventually died! OMG – outlaw carrots! They will kill you! I grew up with a gas stove and gas heating. All of sudden, out comes a study to justify new regulations to outlaw gas stoves. Why? Because the bug we are supposed to be eating in the future will taste better if microwaved.
If you cannot twist your words where they can have two meanings depending upon your end goal, then you have no qualification to be a politician.
Posted originally on the CTH on January 22, 2023 | Sundance
West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin appears with his good friend Chuck Todd for an interview about ongoing political events to include the debt ceiling.
As Manchin and Todd finish each other’s sentences, the discussion hits on the upcoming debt ceiling battle. Manchin surprisingly pulls out the purple card and states the super-secret thing that no one in DC will admit. The last federal budget was signed into law September 2008, for fiscal year 2009. From that moment forward, there has been nothing except continuing resolutions and omnibus spending bills [SIDENOTE: this approach was by design by Obama/Pelosi].
This 12-year timeline includes the entire tenure of House Speaker Paul Ryan, former Budget Committee Chair, who now uses the absence of the budget as a tool to advance his outside impression that DC is fiscally reckless, insert pearl clutching here. I digress. Manchin is positioning himself as the ‘purple’ option for 2024. WATCH (or read):
[Transcript] – CHUCK TODD: And joining me now is Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Senator Manchin, welcome back to Meet the Press.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Chuck, it’s always good to be with you.
CHUCK TODD: Look, I want to get into the debt ceiling. I want to get into all this stuff. But I — we got some developments overnight with those classified documents, an FBI search — the White House said it was coordinated with the FBI. But we’ve now had an FBI search of former President Trump. Now we have an FBI search into President Biden’s residence. What’s your assessment of how the president has handled the situation?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Well, I mean, it’s just hard to believe that in the United States of America, we have a former president and a current president that are basically in the same situation. How does this happen? You know, only thing I can tell you, Chuck, is when I go into the SCIF with the secure documents, they always ask, “Are you clean?” when you walk out. They want to make sure you’re not carrying anything out. You know, and it might be a mistake. You might just put it in your other papers, but you double-check right there. To be held accountable and responsible is what we all are. And to put those in unsecured spaces is irresponsible.
CHUCK TODD: Do you see similarities, or do you see more differences in how President Trump versus how President Biden —
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: I’m not going to make —
CHUCK TODD: — has handled this?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: — that decision, but I think that Merrick Garland did the right thing by putting the special counsel.
CHUCK TODD: You do?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: And I think that we should wait until the special counsel, rather than making this a political circus. Let them find out the facts. What — was one more damaging? Are they both about the same, did not cause any problem, or is one more reckless and irresponsible than the other? I can’t answer that question, but I think the special counsel will do a better job than the politicians and the political circus that is going to follow.
CHUCK TODD: President Biden said he had no regrets in how he handled this. Do you have any advice for him on how he should handle this going forward?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Oh, I think he should have a lot of regrets. Yeah. I would —
CHUCK TODD: What are those —
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: I would think that. I said, “Whoever’s responsible.” I mean, if I hold people accountable, and I use — whether my chief of staff or, you know, my staff, who, that were doing this, that I’m looking at, then I’m going to hold someone accountable. But basically, the buck stops with me.
CHUCK TODD: So you think he should be out there, “Look, I mess — I messed up –”
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: That’s all. Just say —
CHUCK TODD: “Maybe I didn’t do it.” Just say it —
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: — “I made a mistake.”
CHUCK TODD: Just fall on your sword here?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: We’re all human.
CHUCK TODD: Yeah.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: We make mistakes. I can tell you I don’t think anyone intended, he sure didn’t intend for it to fall in wrong hands and use it against our country. I know they didn’t intend that to happen. Could it have happened? I don’t know. And yeah, you just might as well say, “Listen, it’s irresponsible. It was something we should’ve had a better check and balance on.”
CHUCK TODD: Now, former President Trump defied a subpoena. So in that sense, the, the way each has handled it is different.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Yes.
CHUCK TODD: Do you acknowledge that?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Absolutely. Much different than the other. One’s saying, “Okay, I hope I didn’t make any mistakes.
CHUCK TODD: Right.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: — I hope no one’s compromised. I hope we didn’t hurt our country.” And the other one says, “Ugh, no. I know it didn’t. Believe me.” Well, you know what? What they said, verify? You have to verify.
CHUCK TODD: Trust but verify?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Trust but verify. Let’s find out. And that’s what the special counsel’s —
CHUCK TODD: And that’s what you want here? Both special counsels to sort of resolve this?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: First of all, every one of us, in our life, have to be held accountable and responsible for our actions because people want accountability. And they want basically when you’re held accountable, are you responsible or not? If you are, would you — can you fix that? Did you make a mistake? Fine. You’re, you know —
CHUCK TODD: And that’s what you think – the president needs to get out there and just get in front of this?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Cicero, Cicero said, “To err is human.” You’re a human being. You’re going to make mistakes. Did you intend to make it? Did you intend to harm somebody? Did you intend to basically do an irresponsible thing? I don’t think — hopefully, neither one of them did.
CHUCK TODD: Right.
SEN. JOE MANCHIIN: But it sure turned out to be irresponsible.
CHUCK TODD: Let’s talk about the debt ceiling. You’re — as always, you’re trying to find a compromise, middle ground.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Yeah.
CHUCK TODD: I know your instinct here. But why should Republicans get the benefit of the doubt on the debt ceiling here, considering that it’s a — that they’re sort of manufacturing a crisis that’s a bit unnecessary right now?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Well, first of all, if one side thinks that the other one’s more responsible for the debt at $31.4 trillion, that’s, that is totally not accurate and it’s deceptive. We’re all responsible. We’ve got a $31.4 trillion debt. It’s a runaway debt, and no one’s holding themselves accountable. And basically, I think you said it, use the budget process. I’ve been here 12 years. We haven’t had a budget yet.
CHUCK TODD: Yeah. I — that’s what I don’t get here.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: We haven’t had a budget yet.
CHUCK TODD: And that’s what I question —
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Yeah, you should.
CHUCK TODD: — you want to do this special committee here.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: I’m —
CHUCK TODD: And I’m sitting here going, “Why add more “bureaucracy?” We have a budget committee. We have two budget committees. We have a Joint Committee on Taxation. We have all these different committees that have already been created to deal with this process. Why can’t we use the congressional bureaucracy that exists?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: We have 12 appropriations committees —
CHUCK TODD: They’re —
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: They’re supposed to do their job. Why don’t you basically put a time certain on —
CHUCK TODD: Right.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: — what you can do and what you can’t and when you do it? I can’t speak for that. I was a former governor of the state of West Virginia.
CHUCK TODD: Right.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: I was responsible for a balanced budget amendment and basically staying within the realms of my Constitution. So, you know, I met every week. Every week like clockwork they walked in my office on a Tuesday or Wednesday and sit down and go over it. You’re either going to be — have to make some cuts now, make some adjustments now, so we end the year with a balanced budget or a surplus. There’s nothing that holds us accountable. Nothing at all. We can say, “Oh, we’re going to do it.” As I’ve said before, 12 years, haven’t had a budget. That’s ridiculous.
CHUCK TODD: So, let me — you want to do this sort of, that you and Senator Romney, to have committee that deals with the trust fund issues. But right now, neither party wants to touch – I mean, in that sense, Donald Trump came out, and certainly Democrats, nobody wants to touch Social Security or Medicare.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Well, first of all —
CHUCK TODD: So how do you separate those two out and deal with our fiscal problems?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Why would you scare the bejesus out of people that are basically going to say — in West Virginia, I’ve got 60% of my population that that’s all they have is Medicare and Social Security. You think I’m going to go down that path and put them in jeopardy? No. But there are so much other things, the basically wasteful spending, that can be corralled in without scaring the bejesus, depending on what political side you’re on.
CHUCK TODD: Let me ask you about wasteful spending, because one of the three most hypocritical words I hear are “waste, fraud and abuse.” Right. Everybody says, “Oh, waste, fraud, and abuse.”
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: And it’s all there. It’s all there.
CHUCK TODD: Okay, but waste, fraud, and abuse aren’t going to balance the budget, ok? At the end of the day, there are going to have to be choices that have to be made. What is something that ought to be on, on, in the decision of, “You know, maybe we’re spending too much”?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Well, we know we’re spending too much because we’re not balancing our budget and —
CHUCK TODD: But on what?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: — we have more debt. The bottom line is, it’s in the eyes of the beholder. That’s the problem that we have. Five-hundred-and-thirty-five people said, “Well, yeah. What you’re doing is wasteful, Chuck. I think you ought to cut that.” And you’re going to say, “Okay, Joe. How about yours?”
CHUCK TODD: But your, your spending that you think is mandatory, another person thinks is wasteful or abuse.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Yeah. Just think, for every dollar, just get it down, break it down to the dollar. Is there any savings within that dollar you think that is wasteful or abuse that we could at least have a target to set? Is it a penny? Is it five pennies? Is it a nickel? Where is it?
CHUCK TODD: But here’s what gets lost here, is nobody will put anything on the table. Everybody says, “We’ve got to cut spending.” Well, what? And nobody wants to articulate —
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Well, the process —
CHUCK TODD:– the what.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Chuck, you hit it dead on the head. The process isn’t working. How come we’re not held accountable to have – to have the appropriation bills done at a certain time before the end of the fiscal year?
CHUCK TODD: You tell me.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Well, that’s what I —
CHUCK TODD: I mean –
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: You know –
CHUCK TODD: – what does Chuck Schumer say? What does Mitch McConnell
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: You know what happens? It rolls over into an omnibus bill at the end and everything’s thrown into it. “Okay. Here we got it, guys. That’s it.” It makes no sense.
CHUCK TODD: So what should – it sounds like you actually think the debt ceiling is a moment we should use to focus on —
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Well, if you’re going to use the debt ceiling for anything except for theatrics, okay, which is what probably might happen for a while, we’re going to pass the debt ceiling. You are exactly correct.
CHUCK TODD: Right.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: It has to pass. You know, we have the currency of it, you know – the good faith of the United States dollar and the currency of the world. You just can’t let it default and basically hold us in jeopardy from where we stand in the world, world order. With that being said, is how do you get to it? Do you use this moment? Do you come to a reason – responsibility? What are we paying for interest now? For ten years, it was zero. It was funny money. Were not – you know, it doesn’t put any burden. We’re just raising debt, but we’re not basically harming how we have to meet that debt through our interest payments. Now we’re talking real money on an interest basis. We’re almost, up to what our defense budget is, paying in interest.
CHUCK TODD: I guess I come back to, and I don’t think you have the answer either, which is what is the moment to force this conversation?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: This is a moment if, if Kevin McCarthy coming in – coming in new says, “Okay, this is – it’s serious,” and he takes it from the standpoint. And he knows —
CHUCK TODD: What does he need to do that you would take him seriously in this?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Well, you know, Chuck —
CHUCK TODD: Do you know what I mean by that? Like, how do you know when he’s being serious, and how do you when he’s paying politics?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Well, the bottom line is he has a hell of a – heck of a political hand that’s not, not very good right now. He’s not holding a lot, if you will. And he has ten or 12 that’s pretty much out there. He has to make a decision how he wants to govern and how he ought to these next two years in this 118th Congress. You know – I just – it was amazing. I just saw that the Ohio legislature, I don’t know if you paid any attention to that —
CHUCK TODD: I did. Yeah.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: The Ohio legislature, which is Republican-controlled –
CHUCK TODD: Yeah.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: – basically chose their new speaker, a Republican, with as many, if not more votes, from the Democrats because they wanted someone they can work with. That’s a coalition. Why can’t we put coalitions together here?
CHUCK TODD: Well, that’s —
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: The moderate, centrist Democrats coming over and working, whoever’s the majority, and saying, “You don’t have to bow and cow-tail to the extremes.”
CHUCK TODD: Yeah. You don’t have to worry about primaries. A lot of your colleagues have to worry about primaries. Isn’t that why this —
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Let me tell you —
CHUCK TODD – doesn’t happen?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: – one more thing. I’ve got to be honest with you, Chuck. If it’s all about the election, the next election, you know, that’s the worst thing that could happen to us.
CHUCK TODD: You just came from Davos.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Yeah.
CHUCK TODD: There’s a moment, I don’t know if you realized, that went viral between you and Senator Sinema. I want to show the moment here. I want to ask you about it. You guys are high-fiving. I think we’ll show it again here. It was right after she was talking about the filibuster.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Yeah.
CHUCK TODD: Is that what you were high-fiving about?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Yeah, that was – I think, you know, after that. I saw her hand go up and I said, “Sure” because here, the two of us are committed to protecting the filibuster, which I think protects checks and balances on the executive branch. So if you have a Democrat, Democrat, Democrat – president, House and Senate – and you have a strong president, basically leader of the party, then you don’t have a check and balance because I can guarantee you the House and Senate will roll wherever the president wants. I – and I’ve said this before. I appreciate the Republican senators and the leadership of the minority leader at that time, McConnell, majority leader at that time – with Donald Trump every day beating on him, “Get rid of the filibuster.” You’ve got 53, 54 Republicans, and he would not. And I appreciate that. And I told Harry Reid we should not have done it when we did it in 2013. But to come back now, the checks and balances aren’t there. It makes and forces them to work together. Think what we’ve accomplished in the 117th, the most divided Congress we’ve ever had, and we did more substantial bills, I think that’s going to be transformational.
CHUCK TODD: You think those first two years of Biden and this Democratic Congress is going to be historic?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: I think it’s going to be transformational and historical, yes, because here you had a bipartisan infrastructure bill we haven’t done for years.
CHUCK TODD: Yeah.
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: You had then on top of that the CHIPS Act, which will bring manufacturing back so we don’t have supply chains that we’re depending on that aren’t loyal and trustworthy. And then we have the Inflation Reduction Act, which is going to give us – it’s been misaligned because this administration basically said it’s environmental, environmental, environmental. That bill is designed to be energy security, Chuck. And energy security is exactly what we need.
CHUCK TODD: And you’re frustrated that the White House won’t say the phrase “energy security”?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: They will not use the word, and they haven’t. I’m begging you all, please. Energy security. We have to have fossil. We do it better and cleaner than anywhere in the world. And we can be energy secured for ten years, and also be able to invest in technology of the future.
CHUCK TODD: Is this an agenda you can run for reelection on in West Virginia?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Oh, most certainly because we’re seeing right now, I’ve got a battery plant coming in. I’ve got basically hydrogen coming in that direction. We’ve got expansion. And we’re raising our coal with carbon capture sequestration. We’ve got basically methane capturing using gas. We have people that are fighting continuously. And you have to have the pipeline to move this product. And it’s going to be needed. If not, you’re going to end up like Europe. And that’s where I didn’t want to rub it into them, but Europe took an approach that they’re going to say, “We’re going to have cap-and-trade.” And we’re going to be basically charging you a carbon tax.” I’ve said, “I’m not going to support that and vote for it because I think it doesn’t work.” So I took the approach, and basically we wrote this bill with incentives. And it was working. And that’s why they were all upset. That’s why the chancellor and that’s why presidents of other countries were very upset on this bill and concerned about it.
CHUCK TODD: If you run for office in 2024, are you going to run as a Democrat?
SEN. JOE MANCHIN: Chuck, I haven’t made a decision what I’m going to do in 2024. I’ve got two years ahead of me now to do the best I can for the state and for my country.
CHUCK TODD: What are – what’s on the table? Is reelection on the table?
The U.S. Dept of Justice (DOJ) has sent a five-page letter to congress, copying Politico for the public distribution therein. [SEE pdf HERE]
The snarky and passive aggressive Lawfare tone inside the letter is rather remarkable in its sanctimony and condescension. Essentially, Main Justice is telling congressional oversight, specifically House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan, not to expect any timely responses because there’s a lot going on.
Additionally, as the letter directly implies, Republican oversight is not in the favor of the current administration or DOJ and, well, in general terms, get over it – they aren’t complying. However, feel free to initiate the formal negotiation process that will likely take several years.
From the letter to Jim Jordan, “Your January 17 requests—made now in your position as Chairman—initiate the constitutionally mandated accommodation process. Under this process, the Legislative and Executive Branches have a constitutional obligation to negotiate in good faith to meet the informational needs of Congress while protecting the institutional interests of the Executive Branch. We look forward to beginning this process in response to your January 17 letters.” (link)
(Via Politico) – […] The letter, addressed to Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), acknowledges the GOP’s multiple requests for information during the last Congress but doesn’t divulge any new information. Instead, Uriarte outlines how he hopes DOJ could have a “productive relationship” with Republicans in the new Congress, as Jordan had in previous letters accused the DOJ of “stonewalling” their requests, raised the possibility of a subpoena and said the committee could resort to “compulsory practices” to obtain the requested information and documents.
It’s an early marker of DOJ’s position as Republicans pledge to probe President Joe Biden’s administration over a laundry list of issues, including with a select subpanel that has a broad mandate to investigate the federal government. Conservatives have hinted they would use that panel to try to look into certain ongoing law enforcement investigations. (read more)
I think at this point everyone outside the professional political class in the Legislative Branch knew this was going to happen. However, the Republicans in Congress will likely pretend to be stunned by this development, Fox News Sean Hannity will be outraged by it, and then the RNC and RCCC will dispatch fundraising campaigns citing the refusal of the DOJ. Win, win, win… wash – rinse – repeat.
Predicting this approach was exactly why CTH said the House Subcommittee on Weaponized Government should not waste time looking for assistance, documents and or internal support from the various DC silos. Instead, the oversight committees need to go through the formal request process (blah, blah, blah) but focus their efforts at getting documents from the private sector collaborators outside the DC silo system.
If it seems like the Democrats always know how to use power more effectively than Republicans, you would be absolutely correct. However, few people really understand the reason for it. So, I will repeat.
The Republicans want money. The Democrats want power. The Republicans use power to get money. The Democrats use money to get power. The ideology of the Democrats drives their donor funding. The donor funding of the Republicans drives their ideology.
This core truism carries forward beyond electoral politics and into the realm of legislative battles and oversight conflicts. Republicans want money as their primary objective. If the Biden administration wants to get an ideological bill passed, the Democrats simply buy the votes of Republicans (especially Senators).
As an additional outcome, Republicans in congress have no core values, no core objectives, no goals to achieve. After all, their structural goal is money.
Give Republicans power and they don’t know what to do with it, because the voters essentially boosted the dog to catch the car… now what?
What you see in the outcome of elections is that Republicans do not have any plan for power, because it’s not the issue that takes up their intellectual time. That’s reserved for deep analytical thoughts about how to make money from (XXX).
The Democrats know this, they know the main mission of Republicans. Ergo, the Lawfare DOJ pats the Republicans on the head and waits for the frustrated voters to get sick of the GOP doing nothing again, and the Democrats simply wait them out.
We have been in this repetitious abuse cycle for about two decades.
Battered Conservative Syndrome is a very real thing.
There are an enormous amount of codependent enabling voters in this process. I call them Seagull Republicans because they are voters who will fly down and shit over anyone who complains about this reality – then they fly up to their high perches and look down their noses.
In case you missed it, the Seagull Republicans are currently aligned to support Harmeet Dhillon and Ron DeSantis.
One UniParty consisting of two wings, the RNC and the DNC. One bird, two wings.
The GOPe priority around money is the one constant on the right wing. But don’t worry, because the Seagulls are promising that Ron DeSantis will protect us from teh geys.
The Tucker Carlson monologue tonight takes on the issue of extreme government control over the smallest details of life under oppression and totalitarian outlooks amid those who control western democracies. WATCH:
“We will not go gently into that bloody collectivist good night. Indeed, we will make with our defiance such a sound as ALL history from that day forward will be forced to note, even if they despise us in the writing of it.” ~ Mike Vanderboegh
Posted originally on thr CTH on January 19, 2023 | Sundance
Tucker Carlson Outlines the Intersection of the Unelected Administrative State and The Fourth Branch of Government
Posted originally on the CTH on January 19, 2023 | Sundance
The fourth branch of government is the superseding national security apparatus or intelligence branch. That system actually existed for decades as the unelected intelligence apparatus built out its capabilities while We The People slept.
Then 9-11 happened, and the intelligence surveillance system was retooled under the Patriot Act. The Legislative Branch came with the big assist. Then Obama came into office, and all the basic tools were in place to fine tune that surveillance and targeting mechanism. So here we are. Enter, Tucker Carlson:
Posted originally on the CTH on January 18, 2023 | Sundance
There is something predictable about Main Street economics, eventually what you see around you overwhelms the great pretending. CTH has been outlining the state of the consumer economy in great detail for quite a while, and though it is difficult to note when the outcomes will surface, eventually they do surface. [Reminder Here]
CONTEXT. CTH outlined the moment when the purchasing power of the U.S. middle class actually began contracting. It was March and April of 2021 when that Rubicon was crossed. We saw it in the second and third quarter data from 2021, but few were willing to admit.
What changed in those two months back in ’21 was a dramatic drop in the “unit sales” of stuff within the consumer economy. The drop in unit sales was hidden because it happened simultaneously with the first wave of massive spike in prices. Prices rose so fast the sales data was giving an artificial impression of sales growth, but in the background the actual unit sales dropped. Those analysts correcting and adjusting historic data to ‘inflation adjusted terms’ are now noticing.
Additionally, and not coincidentally – because the metrics are connected, you will note this line from the Wall Street Journal review of the producer price index. “The producer-price index, which generally reflects supply conditions in the economy, rose 6.2% in December from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday, the slowest annual pace since March 2021.” In essence, the current rate of wholesale price increase on materials is now returning to the rate of price increase that happened in the period when prices spiked. Again, this is predictable.
Inflation is the measure of the ‘rate’ of price increase over time. March and April of 2021 were the beginning of the first inflationary spike.
Driven almost entirely by the supply side shock from Biden energy policy, in the subsequent 20 months the rate of price increase skyrocketed, peaked August 2022, and now the rate of increase starts returning. This does not mean price declines; this means the rate of growth in the price increase is lessening.
This is a cyclical outcome.
After 20 months of dropping unit sales, a result of massive price increases; and as the rate of inflation now starts to moderate created by the cyclical nature of it; what we now see is the inability of the price increases to continue hiding the drop in unit sales. [Background pdf Data] Total retail sales data is now exposed and that’s why we will see this increasing story about negative sales data as the inflation cycle plateaus.
(Via Wall Street Journal) – Retail spending fell in December at the sharpest pace of 2022, marking a dismal end to the holiday shopping season as rising interest rates, still-high inflation and concerns about a slowing economy pinched American consumers.
Purchases at stores, restaurants and online, declined a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in December from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Sales were also revised lower in November and have fallen three of the past four months.
The decline in retail spending late last year adds to signs that the U.S. economy is slowing. Hiring and wage growth eased in December, U.S. commerce with the rest of the world declined significantly in November, and existing-home sales have fallen for 10 straight months. The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that industrial production slumped in December, led by weakness in the manufacturing industry.
S&P Global downgraded its estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth by a half percentage point to a 2.3% annual rate after Wednesday’s data releases. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month expect higher interest rates to tip the U.S. economy into a recession in the coming year.
“The lag impact of elevated inflation weighs heavily on U.S. households, it’s very clear that the median American consumer is still reeling from the loss of wages in inflation-adjusted terms,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. “We’re moving towards what I would expect to be a mild recession in 2023,” he added. (read more)
When the Baghdad Bob economic pretenders say, “mild recession,” anticipate something more akin to a mild nuclear meltdown, something with breadlines and soup kitchens.
Now, you must keep in mind that almost every financial media outlet used the same Retail Federation talking point about anticipating an 8% increase in holiday sales last year. [Reminder] Apparently, collective pretenses must be maintained. Meanwhile, news crews and camera crews were having a desperate time finding any holiday shopping to use as background footage for the claims that sales were strong. Here we are in January and the pretending has hit reality.
Negative retail sales in November and December when prices are roughly +10% over the prior year, means the unit sales collapse was far more dramatic…. Far more.
Trying to survive policy driven price increases in housing costs, energy costs, electricity costs, home heating, food and fuel costs has forced consumers to reevaluate purchasing decisions. Consumer demand for non-essential items has collapsed, and Americans are dig deep into their savings just to sustain unavoidable expenses. Eventually, pretending this is not happening is going to run into the wall of reality.
On one hand the leaders of large multinationals must pretend everything is splendid; after all, the only acceptable position they can articulate is to support interest rates being raised because demand is just too darned high…. pretending. But on the other hand – those same suppliers and multinationals are furiously trying to calculate how to avoid being stuck with billions worth of unsold inventory and idle industrial equipment.
Posted originally on the CTH on January 18, 2023 | Sundance
Steven Crowder is a smart and witty voice, generally a happy warrior who has been in the battle against the cultural and political progressive movement for over a decade. He’s been in the fight for quite a while and deserves a great deal of praise for bringing a generation of younger people into the fold. I respect his long-established time in the trenches of the cultural war, and we are helping him deliver his message.
Crowder’s audience, the “Mug Club”, is likely a mix of Gen-Z and Gen-X rebels throwing sand into the machinery. He does a great job producing content that deconstructs the insanity of the political left in a way that works and expands his audience. Crowder has almost 6 million YouTube subscribers and while I don’t follow him closely, the message he delivered yesterday is very pertinent.
The problem he outlines is an inside baseball dynamic taking place in the background of the conservative media. It essentially boils down to a financial issue CTH raised a long time ago when the first signals of this troubling trend started. Most of the “well known” conservative media outlets have been purchased and co-opted by a financial system that ultimately controls their content. If you have the time, WATCH:
What Crowder is discussing is the reason why Michelle Malkin dropped out of the fight. The “BigCon” Crowder notes is essentially like the Fox News of alternative media. They offer incentives to monetize the content provider (broadcaster, website, pod caster etc.) then lock the content providers into extremely controlling contracts that control the outcomes.
Ultimately, what the audience ends up seeing is an approved finished product that is acceptable to BigCon and Big Tech. In essence they are in bed together to stop bold and alternative conversation and filtrate the message to shades of soft pastels.
Charlie Kirk, Turning Point USA (TPUSA), Posobiec, Tim Poole, Conservative Review, CRTV (Glenn Beck, Blaze), Mark Levin, Dave Rubin, Salem Media [Townhall, Hot Air, Twitchy, Red State, PJ Media], The Daily Wire with Ben Shapiro, Candace Owens, the list of names and outlets who participate in this overall system is very long. Upstream you will find the same financial underwriters, and all of them have a commonality.
Crowder is at an inflection point and obviously he is unwilling to capitulate to the guiding hands in control that no one is allowed to discuss.
Good for him. I hope he can leverage his influence to break the control mechanism, give startups an alternative, and continue the rebellion.
In writing the Greatest Bull Market in History, published in 1986, I had to do all the original research. I read all the newspapers daily year after year to come to the realization that attitudes shift back and forth. It became very obvious that before FDR and the introduction of Marxism to the United States, the focus was on markets. With Roosevelt, he weaponized the Federal Reserve and just about everything else to further his agenda. Roosevelt demonized Pierre du Pont for he made a lot of money providing the weapons for World War I. Roosevelt called him the Merchant of Death, but then suddenly needed him again for World War II.
The nation is dividing significantly. This is why the United States cannot stand divided. The latest poll demonstrates that the forecast made by our computer is unsurpassed. The question presented was who is our enemy?
For Democrats, the top three results named Russia (31 percent) as our “greatest enemy,” followed by Republicans (26 percent) and China (16 percent).
For Republicans, the top three are China (35 percent), Russia (33 percent), and Democrats (12 percent).
We now are starting to see that we have an enemy within – the opposite political party. This is absolutely essential for it confirms the forecasts of our computer that have been common since our 2011 WEC.
Following the crowd of what is popular and supposed to be the cutting edge of investment, Robert Belfer, the oil Barron, lost billions with ENRON and then Bernie Madoff. Then he became a shareholder in FTX. With a track record like that, you certainly would be firing your financial adviser. The inside joke about DAVOS is that whatever the theme forecast they put out and what they all talk about has NEVER been right. The joke is to do the opposite of the DAVOS forecast and you will make money. Andy Serwer, editor-in-chief of Yahoo Finance, asked Warren Buffett in a 2019 interview about the DAVOS forecasts. He responded: “Well, I pay none as a guideline to doing anything,” Buffett responded. I have said many times, the majority MUST be wrong for they provide the market energy to create the boom/bust cycle. Because the majority buy the high, when they sell, you get the crash. When everyone is short at the bottom, you get the rally.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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