Tag Archives: FED

May 5 2017

Italy Dependent On ECB “Buyer Of Last Resort” As Foreign Investors Dump Bonds Amid Capital Flight


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE May 5, 2017 7:51 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Italy is increasingly dependent on the ECB to hold down bond yields as foreign investors dump Italian bonds like mad.

Eurointelligence bills this as “Further Evidence of Capital Flight in Italy“. 

In a column earlier this week, Federico Fubini notes that, according to the Bank of International Settlements, in 2016 international banks reduced their exposure to Italy by 15%, or over $100bn, half of it in the last quarter of the year. The counterpart to this exposure reduction is the increase in the negative Target2 balance of Italy, which the ECB has already attributed to foreign investors selling into its asset purchase programs, and reinvesting the proceeds away from Italy. As a result of all this, Italy’s financial stability is increasingly dependent on the ECB.

The Capital Flight article by Federico Fubini is in Italian. Here is an unmodified snip from the article.

Distrust Widespread

Clearly, therefore, there is a conspiracy, but a widespread distrust of the direction being taken in the third euro area economy. Especially the banking system in Germany seems to have developed a deep-seated distrust. His exposure to the country late last year is worth little more than a quarter of that of the French banks, and now has dropped so much that is 30% below that that German institutions had on Italy at Euro 1999 debut. No other major banking system has implemented a retreat of these proportions, as if the integration of the single currency had never even begun.

The loss of one hundred billion dollars by large foreign banking investors would be a blow, not for purchases of Italian bonds by the European Central Bank. Throughout 2016 we continued at the rate of about ten billion Euros per month, on corporate bonds and especially on sovereign bonds. In fact the release of foreign banks is linked to the ECB intervention, because those have the opportunity to sell at the Institute of Frankfurt good part of their Roma government bonds. It is no coincidence if the public debt held abroad fell by 42 billion in just the first nine months of 2016, according to Bruegel. The irruption of the ECB in the market and the withdrawal of foreign banks are thus two sides of the same coin. The result is that the Italian financial stability is becoming more and more dependent on the support of an international institution, that next year will almost certainly cease.

I spoke about this process before in Target2 and Secret Bailouts: Will Germany be Forced Into a Fiscal Union with Rest of Eurozone.

One person I highly respect is adamant (or at least was) that rising Target2 does not represent capital flight.

But what else do you call it when foreign investors dump Italian bonds to ECB, the buyer of only resort

May 5 2017

The Hunt for Taxes is Global


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 5, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Hadrian-TaxRevolt

Trajan-Welfare-YouthTaxes are the root of all evil for this is the confrontation against the people that historically leads to civil unrest and then revolution. The American and French Revolutions were over taxes. Historically, even the Roman Empire was forced from time to time to grant tax amnesty as was the case in 119AD. You even have Roman Emperors such a Trajan (98-117AD) engaging in social legislation known as the Alimenta, which was a welfare program that helped orphans and poor children throughout Italy. The Alimenta provided general funds, food and subsidized education for children. The funding came from the Dacian War booty initially. When that ran out, it was funded by a combination of estate taxes and philanthropy.The state provided loans like Fannie Mae providing mortgages on Italian farms (fundi). The registered landowners in Italy received a lump sum from the imperial treasury. In return, the borrower was expected to pay yearly a given proportion of the loan to the maintenance of an Alimentary Fund – a kickback so to speak. Taxes and social programs have been a very long time.

Today, debts are never reduced. Consequently, governments only raise taxes continually. We see this is some of the richest countries in the world. Now Singapore is passing three amendments expanding the power of the Ministry of Finance (MOF) under the Property Tax Act. This new legislation is one that will hand the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS) more enforcement and investigative powers. Singapore government is using the law to force people to pay more in taxes. There will be no privacy. Under this legislation, the tax authorities will be able to summon people to appear personally before them and to provide all information. They will be interrogated orally for investigation be it their own taxes, or another person’s property/properties.

Governments are moving ever more closer to totalitarian states eliminating privacy and human rights. This is a global trend that will come to a head for governments will never reduce their costs and will always demand more and more taxes from the people until the bubble bursts.

May 4 2017

March Trade Deficit Shrinks To Smallest Since October


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE May 4, 2017 8:49 AM

The US Trade Balance shrank to $43.7 billion in March, from an upward revised $43.8 billion in February, marking the month’s deficit the smallest since October and less than the conesnus estimate of $44.5 billion. Imports declined by $1.7 billion, or 0.7%, to $234.7 billion, while exports dipped fractionally more, or 0.9%, even as the recently weaker dollar did little to boost US exports. Notably, the US trade deficit with China was $31.4 billion, followed by the European Union at $10 billion. The trade deficit excluding petroleum stood at $35.82b in March.

The details: the deficit decreased in March 2017 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $43.8 billion in February (revised) to $43.7 billion in March, as imports decreased more than exports. The previously published February deficit was $43.6 billion. The goods deficit increased $0.4 billion in March to $65.5 billion. The services surplus increased $0.4 billion in March to $21.8 billion.

The March decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.4 billion to $65.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $21.8 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $9.4 billion, or 7.5 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $38.0 billion or 7.1 percent. Imports increased $47.5 billion or 7.1 percent

Exports

Exports of goods and services decreased $1.7 billion, or 0.9 percent, in March to $191.0 billion. Exports of goods decreased $2.1 billion and exports of services increased $0.4 billion.

  • The decrease in exports of goods mainly reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($1.8 billion) and in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.9 billion). An increase in capital goods ($0.7 billion) partly offset the decreases.
  • The increase in exports of services mainly reflected increases in financial services ($0.1 billion) and in maintenance and repair services ($0.1 billion).

Imports

Imports of goods and services decreased $1.7 billion, or 0.7 percent, in March to $234.7 billion. Imports of goods decreased $1.7 billion and imports of services decreased less than $0.1 billion.

  • The decrease in imports of goods mostly reflected decreases in capital goods ($0.9 billion) and in industrial supplies and materials ($0.7 billion). An increase in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.1 billion) partly offset the decreases.
  • The decrease in imports of services mainly reflected a decrease in transport ($0.1 billion), which includes freight and port services and passenger fares.

Broken down geographically, the March figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.9), South and Central America ($2.6), Singapore ($0.5), United Kingdom ($0.5), and Brazil ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($31.4), European Union ($10.0), Mexico ($6.5), Japan ($6.5), Germany ($5.0), South Korea ($2.5), Italy ($2.1), Canada ($1.9), India ($1.7), OPEC ($1.6), Taiwan ($1.1), Saudi Arabia ($0.8), and France ($0.1).

  • The deficit with Japan increased $1.6 billion to $6.5 billion in March. Exports decreased $0.2billion to $5.3 billion and imports increased $1.4 billion to $11.8 billion.
  • The deficit with South Korea increased $0.6billion to $2.5 billion in March.Exports increased $0.1billion to $3.9 billion and imports increased $0.8 billion to $6.5 billion.
  • The deficit with France decreased $1.2 billion to $0.1 billion in March.Exports increased $0.6billion to $3.3 billion and imports decreased $0.6 billion to $3.5 billion.

While still a significant hole, the declining deficit trend will likely provide some satisfaction to president Trump; that said the US has a monumental task ahead of it if it wants to shrink the gap to zero.

 

May 4 2017

How Small Events Can Cascade into Contagions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts

Re-Posted May 4, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

COMMENT: Dear Martin Armstrong,

This very unusual video about dominoes is 2½ minute and shows how a small domino can knock over big ones. I remember you writing about a small Austrian bank, Creditanstalt, that in 1931 was the first sign of the economic depression. Maybe these dominoes can illustrate what happened.

I hope you are fine and thank you for this blog

L

REPLY: This is a great example of how a small event can set off a contagion. This is exactly how it works within the global economy

May 4 2017

Changing Cycle Frequencies Produces Different Effects


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted May 4, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

1-ElectroMagnetic Wavelength

QUESTION: Marty, I’m glad that you’ve showed a couple of examples in the past few articles, as per how you apply ECM and volatility cycle waves to events. Yet, can you please explain the methodology and criteria which you use in deciding how to apply them?

What is the criteria with which you choose the starting date of any particular event? Why do you sometimes apply ECM 51.6 time-units, or 72 (volatility), or 31.4 (Pi), or at times intervals such as 2×8.6 vs 34.4, and so forth?
I do understand the arithmetic and the individual cycles, yet I want to understand how your mind combines the right frequencies and adopts the correct cyclical pattern for analysis. In few words, what is the methodology.

Thanks in advance for everything you’re doing.

—

SB
Wave-Shape
ANSWER: Cycles are identical to light, which always moves in frequencies. Everything within the universe is fractal. So discovering the key then applies in all frames of reference. It is way too complex to answer in a brief note. I promise, I am trying very hard to complete the Geometry of Time. It will take a lot of pages to explain this complex and deep subject.
Nevertheless, with a light wave, alter the frequency length and you get a different effect. Major turning points are the convergence of many cycle frequencies. Each will depart from that same event producing different effects and events in the future. It is all about understanding each wave and what it will produce like radio waves, microwaves, infrared, visible light, ultraviolet, x-rays, and gamma waves. They are all part of the light wave. Change the frequency and you can watch TV or cook din
May 3 2017

Is There Really More Oil in The Golan Heights than in Saudi Arabia? Who’s Genie Energy?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy

Re-Posted May 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Golan_Heights_Map

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong I live in Israel and today I listened to your podcast with Macrovoices. At some point you mentioned that there is more oil in Golan heights than in Saudi Arabia -and this oil belongs to genie energy. Is it true? How can it be that nobody knew nothing about this in Israel? Are you sure 100 % about this information? I will be happy to know more about this.

best regards

EP

Genie Oil & Gas

ANSWER: Yes. This is one of the best kept secrets. You can imagine that if this went into production, then the disputed Syrian land issue occupied by Israel would come to the forefront. This is why it gets no play but this is one reason Obama was working to overthrow the Syrian government. They would not have political people on the Strategic Advisory Board if they did not need political strings pulled.

Politically, you have the Pipe Line from Qatar being one major issue that was to compete with Russia in selling gas to Europe, which is why Putin is involved. He is not involved in Egypt, Israel, or even Afghanistan. This is the reason why Putin has an interest in Syria and the mainstream media of course championed Obama claiming he was defending children. Then we have Genie Oil and strategic oil reserves within occupied Syria. Just look at the people who are are heavy hitters on the Strategic Advisory Board of Genie Oil!  Not bad for a company nobody has heard of and the glaring issue is why do you need heavy hitters like this just to pump oil? Location! Location! Location! The mainstream media is not going to report on this issue. They even have Rupert Murdoch on their Strategic Advisory Board. This is hush hush in the mainstream media.

Strategic Advisory Board

The Strategic Advisory Board of Genie Oil and Gas advises management on strategic, financial, operational and public policy matters.

Michael Steinhardt (SAB Chairman)
Noted Wall Street investor and Principal Manager, Steinhardt Management LLC. Founder Steinhardt, Fine, Berkowitz & Co., and noted philanthropist.

Richard (Dick) Cheney
46th Vice President of the United States. Vice President Cheney also served as President and CEO of Halliburton Company and U.S. Secretary of Defense from 1989 to 1993.

Marry Landrieu
United States Senator from Louisiana from 1996 to 2014. Senator Landrieu served as chair of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. In her capacity as chair, she sponsored and passed the U.S.-Israel Energy Cooperation Bill. The bill fosters partnerships focused on developing resources such as natural gas and alternative fuels, on the academic, business and governmental levels.

Rupert Murdoch
Founder and Executive Chairman of News Corporation, one of the world’s largest diversified media companies. News Corporation’s holdings include Fox Entertainment, Dow Jones and Company, the New York Post, HarperCollins and significant media assets on six continents.

Bill Richardson
Governor of New Mexico from 2003 to 2011. Mr. Richardson has served asU.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (1997-1998), Energy Secretary in the Clinton administration (1998-2001), Chairman of the 2004 Democratic National Convention, and as Chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.

Jacob Rothschild, OM, GBE
Chairman of the J. Rothschild group of companies and of RIT Capital Partners plc. Chairman of Five Arrows Limited. Lord Rothschild is a noted philanthropist and Chairman of the Rothschild Foundation.

Dr. Lawrence Summers
Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard University. Dr. Summers served as the 71st Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton and as Director of the National Economic Council for President Obama.

R. James Woolsey
Director of Central Intelligence from 1993 to 1995 and as Under Secretary of the Navy from 1977 to 1979. Mr. Woolsey is co-founder of the United States Energy Security Council and is Chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

May 2 2017

Federal Reserve & Elastic Money & NY Clearing House Certificates


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis

Re-Posted May 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

NY Clearing House

QUESTION: Why do you support the fed in what you call elastic money and not a gold standard?

ANSWER: As usual, you listen to the nonsense about how the Fed is owned by the banks and is responsible for probably everything evil from creating wars to probably killing JFK. The entire use of “elastic money” was not invented by the government or the Fed. It began in 1853 with a little known group to try to help in the middle of a crash for what you are advocating is precisely what Europe has done – impose austerity.

The Panic of 1873 saw the government make a small gesture to try to calm the panic. They did the same thing as Quantitative Easing back then – Yes, not even that is new. The US Treasury injected cash by purchasing government bonds. It did NOTHING to help the economy. Why? When confidence crashes, people HOARD money and will not spend it if they fear the future. The cash they injected was hoarded by the banks just as it has been post-2007. Quantitative Easing in this manner NEVER produces inflation nor does it stimulate the economy.

1907 Clearing House Scrip San Fran

The banks got together to create their own “Elastic Money” using the New York Clearing House. Failing to increase the money supply meant that the value of money in purchasing power rises and all assets decline. This is the hallmark of EVERY recession or depression. During the Panic of 1873, the national banks of New York pooled their cash and collateral into a common fund, and placed this in the hands of a trust committee at the New York Clearing House, which had been founded on October 4th, 1853. The New York Clearing House then issued loan certificates that were receivable at the Clearing-house against this collateral. These certificates were absorbed like cash and could be used to pay off debt balances. Ten million dollars’ worth of these certificates were issued at first, but the sum subsequently doubled. This Clearinghouse paper served its purpose admirably.

By October 3rd, 1873 confidence had been returned and $1,000,000 of these certificates was called in to be canceled. The next day, another $1,500,000 more of these certificates were recalled. In the end, not much of this issue was outstanding very long. The Clearing-house scheme was successfully applied also in Boston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and other cities, but not in Chicago.

This was the birth of “Elastic Money” that makes sense. This prevents wholesale liquidation of assets to get cash in short supply. The problem is neither the Fed nor the concept of Elastic Money. The Fed was originally established in 1913 to act like the New York Clearing House but for all assets outside of Wall Street. Then came World War I the next year in 1914 and Congress ordered the Fed to buy only US government bonds. They never returned the structure of the Fed to what it was originally designed to do.

Hence, today we have Quantitative Easing when central banks buy government paper attempting to stimulate as they tried and failed every time previously. The difference was that the New York Clearing House Certificates were good among security dealers. They were not expanding the money supply nor could they be used for groceries at home.

The certificates were redeemed and those from 1873 are non-existent today because they were used among institutions. If you want to blame anybody or anything – blame the right person or group. What you are doing is blaming a murder on the person who manufactured a gun rather than the person who pulled the trigger. Blame Congress! Not the Fed!

We need a central bank and elastic money is an excellent tool. However, I would issue it in a two-tier manner. The normal tier is money commonly used. The second is the elastic money, but this automatically should expire in 6 years. Therefore, it will be redeemed as was the case in 1873.

*PS If anyone has such a New York Clearing House Certificate from 1873, I would be a buyer.

May 2 2017

Austria Wants to Tax Any Search, Like, or Communication via Internet


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Schieder Andreas

Andreas Schieder (born 1969) is the parliamentary head of Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern’s Social Democrats. He is a typical career politician since 1997 and the very type of person who has no idea about the world economy no less human nature. He is a highly dangerous bureaucrat who only looks at people like cattle from which the government can extract greater and great sums.

Schieder is obviously a Marxist who wants to now tax human behavior and any interaction you have with Twitter Inc., Google or Facebook among others. He wants to tax every time you do anything from searching, posting, tweeting or just liking someone’s post.

He claims this is really a barter transaction where it appears to be free but you are giving them your personal data that they sell to advertising. That arrangement is a form of bartering and any barter transactions is subject to the value-added tax. He said according to Bloomberg:

“The business transaction that’s going on here is that users are paying with their personal data,” Schieder told journalists in Vienna. “The business model of those internet companies is based on massive revenues that are generated with the help of those data.”

Andreas Schieder is a highly dangerous man. He only looks at what government can extract from people, never how government can reduce its size and cost to save money. It’s always just raise more and more taxes without end.

May 2 2017

Soros At it Again – Trying to Overthrow Polish Government?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption

Re-Posted May 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Tokyo-3-1999

Tokyo March 1999 Institutional Seminar

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I attended your March 1999 conference in Tokyo when I worked for ______ bank. I remember you called out Soros and crew and said they were trying to manipulate the yen for fiscal year end. You warned the Japanese how to defeat the Club. If I remember, he and his crew lost $1 billion when everyone in Tokyo followed your advice. Many assumed what they did to you 6 months later was retribution. Now he is at it in Poland funneling money he made from such trading in through Norway to create political unrest. What is it with this guy? Why does he play God?

KE

Japanese Manipulartion March 1999

ANSWER: Oh yes. I remember that event very clearly. That why they started calling me Mr. Yen because it was me and our clients against the Club and the Club lost. They were trying to to push the yen down for the fiscal year-end roll of March 31st and then run it up into April 1st. They had our clients lock it in and that forced the manipulators out. That was a wild day. 3 big figures in a single day in an outside-reversal was a big move back then.

I know the rumor was that Soros was in on that and the Club lost $1 billion. Not sure how much they lost on that one. It was the good-old fun days of confrontations.

The Polish government wants to stop the distribution of Norwegian money flowing into Poland coming from Soros’ funded Batory Foundation, which manages over 800 million euros with a target of overthrowing the Polish government by 2020. Since 2014, the Batory Foundation has distributed some 130 million zlotys (around 31.7 million euros) to various associations and organizations within Poland to change the government. According to Bloomberg, this includes organizations for the promotion of “parliamentary democracy”,  but only if it agrees with Soros’ agenda. Effectively, Soros is trying to defeat Catholic values ​​in Poland which are supported by the population and government.

Norway is refusing to stop Soros’ agenda being implemented against Poland from inside Norway. Meanwhile, Poland and the head of the EU have been is a battle rejecting the EU policies on refugees and Brussel’s totalitarian position where he has even told Poland to accept the refugees or get out of the EU. The main concern is that the Polish government wants to determine its own future and security. The situation escalated as the EU reelected Poland’s Donald Tusk against Poland’s.

Krakow-Night

Poland should exit the EU and strike its own trade deal with the USA. Many US companies have established back-office operations there in Krakow including New York Banks. It is a very beautiful city on its own besides being a quiet place for back-office operations. Poland has well educated students, fluent in English, and they are free from the Euro. If Poland were to adopt the Euro, there are numerous companies that have expressed they would have to leave Poland or cease any further expansion under such conditions.

Soros has publicly stated he does not believe in God. Many who worked for him said they think he believes he is a god with the right to reshape the world in his image. So have many throughout history and they are responsible for the murder of countless millions. Money does not give you the right to fund revolutions to recast the world in your image.

May 1 2017

Economic Reality: Bottom 50% Of Americans No Longer Matter


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-posted from ZERO HEDGE May 1, 2017 8:15 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The Fed likes to brag about the “We saved the world” recovery.

However, the unfortunate truth of the matter is a record Half of American Families Live Paycheck to Paycheck.

Does it Matter? Let’s investigate.

Unprepared for Nearly Anything

  • 50% are woefully unprepared for a financial emergency.
  • Nearly 1 in 5 (19%) Americans have nothing set aside to cover an unexpected emergency.
  • Nearly 1 in 3 (31%) Americans don’t have at least $500 set aside to cover an unexpected emergency expense, according to a survey released Tuesday by HomeServe USA, a home repair service.
  • A separate survey released Monday by insurance company MetLife found that 49% of employees are “concerned, anxious or fearful about their current financial well-being.”

Deleveraging? Where?

A Fed study shows U.S. Households Will Soon Have as Much Debt as They had in 2008.

The Federal Reserve announced Friday that the U.S. has $1 trillion in credit-card debt. Consumers hit that number in the fourth quarter of 2016, but eased on revolving credit during January 2017. The Fed announcement showed revolving consumer credit hit more than $1 trillion once again in February 2017.

“Credit card debt is rising quickly, but delinquencies are still really low,” said Matt Schulz, a senior industry analyst at the credit cards site CreditCards.com. “Many Americans are doing a good job of controlling their debts, but eventually with big debts and rising interest rates, it’s likely that something will have to give.”

Paycheck to Paycheck “Good Job”

Excuse me for asking but if half the nation lives paycheck to paycheck, is that really indicative of doing a good job at managing debt.

And as for “low delinquencies”, I remind you of my April 26 article Subprime Credit Card Losses Bite Capital One: Income Down 20%, Charge-Offs Up 30%.

Nonetheless, I remind you of an important perception.

We Saved the World

Two Reasons Not to Worry

  1. The stock market and housing are still going strong. We heard the same thing in 2007 but it’s different this time.
  2. The bottom 50% of the economy simply do not matter.

The real crux of the matter is point number two.

The Fed does not give a damn about the bottom half of the economy even though it spouts continual lies about “income inequality.

The Bottom 50% Do Not Matter

As long as the Fed can keep stocks and home prices elevated, there is no concern about the food-stamp, rent-subsidized, Medicaid-supplement, disability-income, Obamacare-subsidized 50% of Americans struggling paycheck-to-paycheck.

That money rolls in guaranteed, month after month!

That 50% cannot afford a house is irrelevant as long as suckers keep paying $500,000 to two-bedroom shacks in LA.

The game is to keep asset prices up so that the top 50% keep spending. The bottom 50% are taken care of by government (taxpayer) subsidies noted above.

Here’s the real deal: Fed Expects a Second Quarter Rebound, Higher Equity Prices.

Repeat Performance

The Fed needs to keep asset prices elevated even though it’s pretty clear concerns are mounting over bubbles.

Can the Fed save the world again?

Previously, the bottom third did not matter. Then the bottom 40% did not matter. Now the bottom 50% do not matter.

That statement is a bit over the top. By how much I don’t know. But the trend is clear, as is the fly in the ointment.

Brexit was the first warning shot. Trump was the second.

As soon as the bottom 65% don’t matter, those 65% may vote to take matters into their own hands.