The Overview


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The Dow made a new high on Friday, but we failed to closed above the 2016 high. We still see the next major resistance level in the 21000-23000 area. A Phase Transition is only likely exceeding that level.

Gold has bounced but the resistance stands at 1197 level with support at 1130 zone. The lowest closing remains 2015 on an annual basis. We need a weekly closing back above 1222 to suggest any short-term sustainability.

Most markets, including the dollar, are really holding waiting to see what the Trump Administration looks like. The tax reform will clearly bring cash moving back to the States despite the leftist economist desperately saying it will not. Any company who does not take advantage of a 10% one-time tax compared to 40% would be one giant short illustrating that their management must be brain-dead. Nevertheless, we are on a wait and see alert for tax reform.

January is still a risk of a turning point in many markets. So you want to be careful with rallies in currencies or commodities at this particular time. The big turning point seems to be shaping up for April/May.

The EU Precedent also Lies in the Athenian Empire


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QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read your work on the euro from the nineties and how it would fail. Everything you laid out unfolded over the the subsequent 20 years. I assume you have discovered historical attempts to create a euro type system before aside from Napoleon. Can you point to any other references?

HF

ANSWER: History repeats because the human emotions and passions of humanity NEVER change. Without going into all the numerous attempts of trying to create standards, which in fact was the root idea behind the euro to combine the European currencies to compete with the dollar, let us turn to Greece, which was the first state to crack in the Eurozone.

The Athenian coinage decree standardized currency among all the city-states that were allied with Athens. Between the years of 450 and 447 BC, the use of Athenian silver currency and Athenian weights and measures was made MANDATORY in all allied states of the Athenian Empire. This established the Athens Owl as the currency at the time making it the ancient equivalent of the US dollar on the one hand and imposed a single currency such as the euro. Section XII of the decree reads:

“And if anyone proposes or puts to vote concerning [these matters that it is possible] to utilize foreign coinage or put out a loan, let him immediately be haled before the Eleven. The Eleven should punish him with death, but if he disputes his guilt, let them bring him before a dicasteric court.”

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The Athenian Owl became the world currency that was imitated even in India. It was not that these imitations were counterfeit insofar as reducing the metal content. To the contrary, imitations were simply created because the Athenian Owls carried a premium over the silver content similar to the US dollar in peripheral economies today as many peg their currency to the US dollar such as Hong Kong or Saudi Arabia.

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The resentment of this Athenian decree that made the Athens Owls the “reserve currency” of the ancient world, contributed to the Peloponnesian War (431–404 BC) fought by Athens and its Empire  positioned against the Peloponnesian League led by Sparta. Athens had the naval supremacy, but in the end, it fell to Sparta. Today, we have resentment against the dollar being the reserve currency coming from China and Russia. But what backed the Athenian Owls to the point that they carried a premium over their metal content was the fact that Athens was the financial capital of the world due to its dominance in trade. Even shipping insurance emerged in Athens along with banking.

The Athenian Empire emerged following its defeat of the Persians much as governments now share information and hunt people for one another under the claims of terrorism. The Delian League was founded in 477 BC as an association of Greek city-states under the leadership of Athens for the purpose of continuing the defense against the Persian Empire after the end of the Second Persian invasion of Greece. The name is derived from its original meeting place, which was the island of Delos where the ancient central bank stood. Pericles moved it to Athens in 454 BC. This was similar to the design of the European Union.

Athens used the League’s navy to further its trade much as Germany has done to eliminate currency risk for its exporters. This conflict of interest often led to disputes between Athens and the less powerful members of the League creating tension over the single currency created by the Athenian Coinage Decree. By 431 BC, Athens’ authoritarian control led to the outbreak of the Peloponnesian War, which ended the League in 404 BC under the direction of Lysander, the Spartan commander upon the defeat of Athens.

Troika-Unelected

The authoritarian attempt to rule Europe by the EU is leading to the same disruption in commerce. The unelected Troika are also like the tyrants of Athens who were overthrown and replaced with democracy. Southern Europe has not benefited from the single currency any more that the various city-states among the Delian League. The single currency benefited the northern manufacturers within Europe at the expense of the less industrial Southern European member states. The failure to consolidate the debts of all members in the EU burdened their economies causing their past debts to be converted to euro which then doubled in real value. Nobody understand this very basic problem in political circles. Talk about being brain-dead!

Larry Summers – Who Admits He Cannot Forecast – Forecasts Trump


QUESTION: Marty; Did you see Larry Summer’s comments on Trump. Is this guy completely insane? He says Trump is proposing things off the planet. Wasn’t it Summers who came up with the negative interest rates and supported repealing Glass Steagal?

ANSWER: Larry Summers is a classic example of how a PHD means absolutely nothing compared to real life experience. He had the audacity to say, “The vast majority of the companies who have large overseas cash also have substantial amounts of domestic cash.” Obviously, Summers has never advised a real company. If Trump makes it a 10% tax, any company who does not bring their cash home would be a short. EBay had two companies it wanted to buy domestically. It backed out of the deal because it would have to bring in cash from overseas and pay too much tax to make it worthwhile. That’s how much Larry Summers knows about the world.

Summers went further, “The reality is that cash that is brought home will be used to pay dividends, to buy back shares, to engage in mergers and acquisitions, to rearrange the financial chessboard, not to invest in large amounts of new capital. It is a chimera to suppose that there will be large increases in capital investment as a consequence of that repatriation.”

First of all, paying dividends and buying back shares will put money DIRECTLY into the hands of investors who will redistribute the funds. Summers tries to “stimulate” by handing banks billions with no strings attached in hopes that they will lend the money to people who want to borrow. Then he wants to impose negative interest rates to punish people for not spending or investing.

Larry Summers has publicly admitted he is incapable of forecasting the economy, so where does he get off saying this nonsense? Quite frankly, those who are watching their pension funds go bankrupt should sue this guy for his non-conventional idea of negative interest rates to “stimulate” the economy. He gave us the 2007-2009 crisis by repealing Glass-Steagall and supporting the bankers, and he set the pension crisis in motion with negative interest rates. Thank God Hillary lost because this clown would be in charge of screwing up the economy even more.

Bringing All the Sources Together


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Panic 33AD

QUESTION: Hi Martin!

I have been enjoying readings in your rich (in knowledge) website and writings in my vacations here in Southern South America. Between one coffee and another I printing articles and writings in order to “connect de dots” as you use to say. That is being a pleasure.

My question is on your article from 9th November in 2013. That’s outstanding, by the way, I really liked that. It makes me happy once you make connections throughout history of human civilization. I do appreciate that.

The name of the article is “Deflation – The Great Equalizer – Now Greece? Was There a Different TESTED Response in History? YES!”

Was astonishing to me the initiatives form the Emperor Tiberius (14-37 AD) and the fact that it worked as you said!

Therefore, I am wondering on the following points:

a) Where can I find (book references) more about these initiatives to fix the economy made from Emperor Tiberius? Which book you would recommend on Roman Empire focusing in this economics view?

b) Where can I find some source with regard “call money rate” of the countries around the world or at least from some of them?

Thank you very much for your attention and hard work!!

All the best!

Warm regards,

RS

ANSWER: There is no single source from which I can draw everything. “The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” by Edward Gibbons is probably the best single source, but this does not focus upon the economics. I put together the Panic of 33 AD from various sources using Tacitus as well as the coins themselves. You will find some of the the digital versions on this site under “books.” I prefer contemporary historians to modern ones who interject their interpretations. I also recommend “Historia Augusta.” You can also see how I have brought together all the key sources from ancient times by recording the economic crisis of the first Roman Civil War.

Plutarch (c. 46–120), recorded the personal lives of important Greeks and Romans
Gaius Cornelius Tacitus (c. 56 –c. 120), early Roman Empire
Suetonius (75–160), Roman emperors up to Flavian dynasty
Appian (c. 95–c. 165), Roman history
Arrian (c. 92–175), Greek history
Lucius Ampelius (3rd century AD?), Roman history
Dio Cassius (c. 160–after 229), Roman history
Herodian (c. 170–c. 240), Roman history

Forecasting Economic Numbers – Do They Matter?


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QUESTION:  Hi Martin, You have mentioned on numerous occasions, that the Socrates has inputs from around the world to come to very accurate conclusions. I assume, it has plenty data from within the USA as well. Can it also predict the NFP? ADP?. (few days BEFORE.)

Don

ANSWER: We have put in such information from the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) and ADP Private Sector Jobs data and the interesting result demonstrates that human emotion rules — not numbers. Yes, any data series develops patterns including lottery numbers. Forecasting the direction of such numbers is not really that difficult. The stunning realization, as I have said plenty of times regarding fundamental analysis, is that the reaction of the market is driven by the trend. Therefore, you can obtain a good number but the market will respond in the opposite direction and the news will say it was not good enough. The overall trend being bullish or bearish will color the response to the numbers. Forecasting the number does little good from a reality perspective.

Bitcoin – What Next?


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The rally in Bitcoin has come out of China, which has accounted for 98% of bitcoin trading in the past six months. China is also home to about two-thirds of the world’s bitcoin mining power. The Phase Transition spike in Bitcoin is very alarming for it flies right in the face of government’s worldwide and what they are trying to accomplish by eliminating currency.

The Chinese have been buying bitcoin onshore, selling it offshore for another currency and then moving the money to a bank account. This is how the Chinese individuals can taken cash out of the country circumventing all regulation. The Chinese  government has been strengthening requirements for citizens converting their yuan and with Trump coming into office, China fears that lower values for the yuan will become a trade war even if the government is not activity trying to depreciate the yuan for trade. Conversions of yuan are already subject to a quota or currency controls in an effort to curb capital outflows.

Bitcoin has been the escape method for capital fleeing China. With the looming trade war on the horizon, the Chinese government will have absolutely NO CHOICE but to come in and regulate Bitcoin when it’s citizens now account for 98% of all trading. From a regulatory perspective, the days of passive treatment of Bitcoin may come to an end. Bitcoin has soared only because it has been the mechanism to obtain foreign exchange and take capital out of China. This can easily be called illegal operations such as money laundering to justify closing that window.

Of course you have the zealots who preach Bitcoin as the alternative to the dollar they cannot shut down. All they need to do is declare it to be illegal and the PRESUMPTION of being in Bitcoin is a PRESUMPTION of being a criminal. They are already using terms like CASH IS FOR CRIMINALS and if you have a few thousand in cash, they just confiscate it presuming you are criminal under Civil Asset Forfeiture and never have to prove you committed a crime or charge you. Keep in mind we are dancing with the devil. There are no rules – just ruthless self-interest. They will do whatever it takes to survive. They will not relinquish power willing.

Money Changers Refusing to Accept Australia $100 Bills


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Because Australia has convened a commission to terminate the $100 bill, in the wake of the currency being cancelled overnight in India, there is a growing distrust of high denomination euros and Australian bills. What is interesting is A$100 notes are nonnegotiable now in India. The same is happening in Europe with the €500 bills. There is a growing distrust of paper currency after Modi’s cancellation of high denomination notes in India. The word is getting out that this is a G20 trend that is being introduced in 2017. The last currency would be the US dollar and that would require Trump’s approval by 2018. Dollars in the streets overseas are starting to be the ONLY currency of choice.

India is the Guinea Pig for Electronic Money


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QUESTION: Dear Marty,

What could be the true intentions of Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi in India cancelling the currency overnight. I have been suspecting some foul in his demonetisation move but cannot correctly understand why he did it? Counterfeit currency, Black money, prevent terrorism all his publicised motives have been shown false. If this move is any kind of scandal and he has tarnished India image in long run or short run. Almost 90% analysts in India are saying it is a good move in the long run ( 2-3 years) and pain in short term. Is this correct?

Is Modi setting up a bounce back 2-3 years down the lane in time for his election? Or is the some other sinster motivated power center behind the official move to demonetise? With your vast experience dealing with governments and contacts behind the curtain, could you kindly throw some light on future of India?

Appreciate your work a lot.

Your blog is a must read.

Kind Regards

Aj

ANSWER: At the G20 meetings, there were discussions behind the curtain about eliminating currency. This cannot begin in the USA because the dollar is the world currency even physically. We are looking at 2017 being the year for the start of electronic money in some countries. They are adapting a new banking system by September 2017 to provide instant transfers. The fraud is already moving away into that area and less on the credit card issue. If they can tap into the electronic instant transfers, they will hit a gold mine.

Modi is pushing India against the wall to move into this new world of electronic money, which they hope to have running by 2018. Everything will change. The big question is whether Trump will go along with this agenda that Obama began and raise taxes even more.

Modi is not doing this in isolation. He is trying to get India up to par with the other countries moving electronic. There are ongoing discussions and India is being watched very closely. If this works in India, they will adopt this forced measure by 2018 in many countries. Europe will probably be nex

Police Given DUI Tickets when on Pool Toys in Australia


 

COMMENT: Hi Martin – Police in Australia hit a new low last week charging people with DUI while floating on pool toys in Sydney Harbour claiming they are a “vessels”. Really appreciate all the work you do and you’ve got a big following down under!

Keep it up Ben. Youtube title is: Australian Police Charge DUI On Pool Toys

REPLY: The police are no longer here to protect society. They are here to extract as much money from us at gun point. This is precisely how Rome fell. Once there was not enough money to pay pensions, the army began sacking their own cities to get paid.

Police are hitting new lows on a global basis.

I was just given a parking ticket for not being directly within the white lines on Christmas Day on private property in from of Starbucks and the cop gave two other cars parking tickets while we were waiting inside in line. Of course it is illegal. But you then have to hire a lawyer, go to court, take off a day, wait for hours, to stand up and say he had no jurisdiction to write parking tickets on private property. So what happens? You pay the fine.

Connecting the Dots


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QUESTION: I find your explanation of how everything is connected very insightful. So events go nuts in Europe and that sends capital fleeing to America as in World War I and II. Am I correct is saying it is not possible to manage an economy in isolation?

Thanks making my mind work

HW

ANSWER: Correct. Everything is connected so what happens in one nation influences capital flows. It was World War I and II that took the USA from bankrupt in 1896 to the world’s largest economy by 1949. It is impossible to carry out any policy domestically that is counter-trend to the world economy. You can even put in capital controls to try to stop the movement of money. That fails to work as well. Even Communism collapsed for it was unsustainable.

Producers of eggs got together to try to defeat the business cycle and smooth out the price of eggs. That blew up in their face into a class action lawsuit. Nobody can stop the cycle for everything is captured within it from weather to war. Some people will never get it. They want to believe government can make things better.