Re-Posted Mar 16, 2021 from Martin Armstrong Blog/WEF
The entire world of economics has been abandoned without actually admitting it has failed. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is throwing in the towel without actually admitting its policies have totally failed. The IMF was the bastion of Keynesianism, supporting economic Neoliberalism. Of course, the head of the IMF is on the board of the World Economic Forum and is fully onboard with Schwab’s Great Reset. Previously, if you asked if the IMF was a Neoliberal-Keynesian it would have been like asking if the Pope if he was a Catholic.
The complete reversal of the IMF has been at the direction of the World Economic Forum who endorses really a one-world government and economic dictatorship. The old Neoliberalism ideology of free markets, free trade, and small government, are gone. This is part of Schwab’s attempt to control the Fourth Industrial Revolution, yet when we have the ONLY fully functional AI system in the world that writes over 1,000 reports on the state of the financial world, they wanted to shut it down because it also forecasts that they will fail. The current and previous head of the IMF has been a board member of Schwab’s WEF. There is no more independence. The IMF is fully occupied by Schwab.
The IMF has been pushing Schwab’s digital agenda for several years once Christine Legard got a hold of the IMF. What makes this reversal in economic policy so shocking is that the IMF even put out a piece entitled: “Neoliberalism: Oversold?” They are now questioning the entire world of free trade and are advocating more of a fascist state with control by a central authority.
There seems to be a HUGE gap in what people think about cryptocurrency. The European Central Bank (ECB) is working on a scheme to launch “digital euro central bank money” as soon as possible. Many economists praise the project as an “innovation,” as an important and indispensable step in an increasingly digitized world. But economists typically always advocate socialism without ever actually contemplating what is its final destination. The socialist press which has engulfed most of the mainstream is also obvious to what is the final destination.
The ECB has made its intentions known, as has the Federal Reserve, that in declaring a digital currency, both have stated it will be a currency accessible for everyone, robust, secure, efficient, and compliant with the new agenda. What is overlooked is this is to be a central bank currency and they have been quietly suggesting that they will even take direct depositions from non-banks. Nobody seems to really understand what that means. As usual, they simply glass over the statements. In truth, it is circumventing the banking system for they are also not about to bail out the banks in this new world because they are also contemplating the end of government debt. If the government does not borrow, then who needs the bakers?
Mainstream media also refuses to address privacy concerns. To be very clear, the path to digital currency is also one to total surveillance by a state regime that will accelerate considerably in this world where they can pick your face out of a crowd of a thousand.
Anyone who thinks a digital euro is somehow better because it is not fiat money, well it is simply fiat money on steroids. The ECB will not surrender its monopoly of euro production. However, what is being talked about behind the curtain is that a digital euro can either be “account-based” meaning you will keep it in an account held with the ECB directly, or it can be “token-based” where banks receive a “token” that can be transferred from smartphone to smartphone via an app.
The ECB says the digital euro is a “compliment” to cash and bank balances. Clearly, that is like saying the lockdown will be just three weeks when they never had any such intention. Obviously, those who pay in cash find it convenient and want to ensure their anonymity. That will become a thing of the past which is their intention. The objective is to force everyone into paying electronically, i.e., transfer balances through PayPal, Apple Pay, or debit or credit cards.
Back in May/June 1992, we put out a report on the long-term implications of what our computer was projecting. The year 1998 marked the Russian default which sparked the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis and the first time the Federal Reserve had to bail out a hedge fund. Heading into the end of this cycle in 2032, we would see the extinction of 30-year bonds and the demise of the floating exchange rate system. This time what comes after 2032 will be indeed a new world order for what appears on the horizon is the collapse of our present system which is being accelerated by Klaus Schwab and his World Economic Forum. These forecasts, along with 2016 being the first time a non-politicians would win, sounded far-fetched back then. But this is simply how economies and societies unfold. It was not some premanitio9n. It was just history repeating itself.
“Since 1985 we have been warning that the Nineties would be a period of turmoil marked by greater volatility and a major crisis in world debt. We have also stated time and again that our computer models were forecasting the extinction of 30-year bonds along with the collapse of the floating exchange rate system. While these forecasts may appear bleak, this does not necessarily signify the end of civilization. A similar crisis involving these issues along with war were also the hallmark of the final years during the 18th century. The new world order that emerged thereafter brought forth an era in democracy and capitalism not only in Europe, but also in the birth of the United States.
While many will laugh at these forecasts or attempt to simply dismiss them as too far-fetched to be considered seriously, they merely display their own weakness of a closed mind.”
QUESTION: Hi Martin Thanks for all the work you do, my day always starts with reading your take on things. I was a member until recently as I am out of a Job. I Live in Toronto, where lockdowns have been the worst and longest in North America. Presently looking to relocate out of the city. I am a Contractor and it seems most of the work in the coming years will be outside the city, as everyone is selling and moving to small towns or their cottages and now want them upgraded for year-round living.
Question: Bitcoin and Crypto. It seems to me that they are using Crypto and pushing it mainstream for a reason. Is it may be a way of increasing the fiat. What I mean is every time someone Buys a Bitcoin they are purchasing with Fiat, so the $10,000.00 someone buys in incremental Bitcoin automatically doubles that Fiat, as the person selling now, has the equivalent of $10 k to purchase something using Bitcoin and the Seller now has $10 k to purchase an item with the Fiat. Could this be another way of getting money into the market without having to Create it at the Fed?
What do you Think CB
ANSWER: No I believe they are allowing it to trade for the sole purpose to mislead people into thinking cryptocurrency is somehow better than cash. Governments are planning to swap all physical money for 100% digital to end hoarding of cash and to be able to increase tax enforcement as well as to reduce the underground economy – i.e. drugs to prostitution. They always blame the people for not paying all the taxes they think they are entitled to rather than realize that no matter how much taxes they collect – it will never be enough.
By allowing Bitcoin to rally, they are creating the image that cryptocurrency is better than cash. It is psychological and the average person is easily fooled. The 911 Porsche came out in 1964 and changed little for the rest of the decade. There was less variation in the 911’s early years as well. The high-performance 911S came out in 1967, as did the famous Targa body style with its removable roof panel. I bought one in 1970 for just slightly under $10,000. By 1980, they were starting at $35,000 and over $50,000 by 1985. The Deutschemark rallied 140% during the 1970s and the German manufacturers priced their cars in marks – not dollars. So the value of the German cars kept rising in dollar terms during the 1970s all because primarily due to the currency, which also led to higher prices for commodities caused by OPEC. This created the image that German cars were better than American. I bought foreign sportscars during the 1970s and would drive them around for 2 years and would get my money back so cars never cost me a dime.
I have told the story before that I bought a 328 Ferrari in London for about £30,000 when the pound fell to $1.03 when it was a $50,000-$60,000 car in the USA. The pound had been over $2 when Ferrari priced what they would sell that car for to Brits. Since the pound fell so hard, the Italians raised the price to £45,000 or maybe £60,000. Then the pound rallied back to almost $2. I drove the car in London for about two years and then sold it used about doubling my money.
This example of the sharp rise in the price of a Ferarri created the false assumption that they were a great investment and people began buying and storing them. It was just the currency — not the car. Once you understand how the FX markets create different impressions of domestic markets, you can suddenly see the world through a whole new set of lenses.
Cryptocurrencies are going through the very same phase. They are creating the illusion that they are somehow better than cash. Even the name “cryptocurrency” is misleading for they are not a currency at all – they are merely a trading vehicle. Do not get all stary-eyed and look at them as better than cash for that is looking at a Ferrari as an investment rather than a car to drive.
I understood the rise in the value of the Ferarri was currency so I also knew when to sell. It is critical to look behind the facade to see what is the true nature of what you are dealing with. Bitcoin is no more a store of wealth than any stock because it rises and falls. Anything that fluctuates cannot be a store of wealth – it is simply an investment vehicle.
I am glad to see that you publicly touched on the idea of expiring credits, that in fact are in play. It is an old idea that has been talked and written about by members of the Club in many of their Private think tanks and in books and other literature going back to the early 1900s, if not earlier. Being sold as a way to bring about inflation, has other benefits, such as control, which would fit nicely with the elimination of private property.
There is no doubt the Club is desirous of this idea and is looking to bring this about soon. Of course, the people will have to use expiring credits, but not the elite. As it is still more of the same, expiring credits for thee, but not for me. The elite will continue to be allowed to have a way to accumulate and preserve wealth.
Now whether this idea will be brought out and be successful, is debatable. The main point is that it is in the works and not a benefit to most.
REPLY: I find it very interesting how history repeats yet these people think they have come up with an original idea. They NEVER do their research to see if it was ever used previously and how did it perform. Like the prostitute tokens of Rome trying to undermine the trade. Today, aside from trying to move to digital currency to terminate the underground economy, we still have politicians constantly trying to regulate vice one way or another without success. New York is legalizing prostitution so the girls do not go to jail but their patrons do. There were well-established houses of prostitution in Rome known as Lupanare. There too, we saw attitudes swing back and forth. The interesting aspect is that as Christianity became the state religion post 300AD, the prostitution moved to bath-houses.
So when Rome fell, so did bathing because to say you went to take a bath was one and the same to engage in prostitution. This gradually changed from prostitution to disease whereby engaging in bathing was seen as a questionable deed. A 16th-century book titled This is the Myrour or Glasse of Helth, advised: “Use not baths or stews, nor sweat too much, for all openeth the pores of a man’s body and maketh the venomous air to enter and for to infect the blood.”
It was actually Henry VIII’s marriage to Katherine of Aragon (1485-1536) that imported a cultural change. The sixteen-year-old Katherine was shocked when men would relieve their bladders in public places (Emerson 1996). The favorite spot for a urinal was the huge fireplaces of the times. This behavior she insisted had to end. In 1573, Thomas Tusser wrote in his ‘Five hundreth Goode Pointes of Husbandrie:
Some make the chimnie chamber pot to smell like Filthie stink, Yet who so bold, so soone to say, fough, how These houses stink? (Hibbert 1987, p. 201).
Katherine of Aragon’s marriage turned the Tudor court upside down. The ‘pissing areas’ were phased out by constructing more garderobes in the chambers of the palaces. She insisted on a new stricter guideline for the behavior of those at court and moved the Tudors toward higher standards of cleanliness. Like her father, Elizabeth I (1533-1603) maintained high standards and was said to have been offended by smell and uncleanliness. She was known to have regular baths and she had a portable bath she would travel with. The prevailing attitude that full bathing was unhealthy and could lead to death, was a curious transition from the uncleanly prostitution that took place in Roman bathhouses. Elizabeth shocked everyone when she insisted on bathing during her life and death battle with smallpox in 1562. The doctors swore she would die.
So I find it interesting that ideas seem to simply repeat throughout history just as futures contracts began in Babylon or insurance reappeared in London by people meeting in a coffee house of Llyod’s – ie Starbucks. But the interesting connection between prostitution and bathing and how that migrated to being just unhealthy to take a bath shows how something begins based upon one idea, the tradition is maintained, but the idea to justifies it morphs over time.
Christmas is the same thing. December 25th was the feast of the sun god Sol. From the time of the Roman Emperor Elagabalus (218-222AD), there was a movement toward the sun god who was called Sol Invictus insofar as he rose every day and thus was invincible. It was sort of a movement toward this idea of a superior god.
Here is a gold medallion of Constantine (307-337AD) with Sol. Until the Council of Nicaea in 325AD, Christians were persecuted, churches set ablaze and their wealth confiscated. The persecution of Christians peaked under the rule of Emperor Diocletian (ca. 245 – 316) which was one Pi cycle 31.4 years from Elagabalus. Diocletian wanted to revive old pagan cults and make them into a kind of state religion. The decline was Rome was being blamed on the Christians for refusing to worship the Roman gods. But Diocletian’s anti-Christian policies failed and were revoked under ultimately his successor, Emperor Constantine I.
However, Christianity did not really become the religion of the entire Roman Empire until officially February 27, 380AD. The decree of the Eastern Roman Emperor Theodosius I (379-395AD) had far-reaching consequences. It bound the Judeo-Christian roots of the European continent to Greco-Roman culture. About 200AD, a Christian teacher Clement of Alexandria (c. 150 – c. 215AD) in Egypt made reference to the date Jesus was born. According to Clement, several different days had been proposed by various Christian groups. Nevertheless, Clement never mentioned December 25 at all.
Nobody knew the day Christ was born, so with most holidays, they rapidly lose their meaning. Christmas, being December 25, was transformed from the feast of sol to that of Jesus. In 274AD, the Roman emperor Aurelian (270-275AD) established a feast of the birth of Sol Invictus (the Unconquered Sun), on December 25. He was trying to reestablish the confidence in the Roman Empire after the currency collapsed following the capture of the Roman Emperor Valerian I (253-260AD) in 260AD by the Persians. Creating Sol Invictus as an official holiday was in part to reassure the people that Sol would protect the Romans.
It was not that if Christmas looked like a pagan holiday, more pagans would be open to both the holiday and the God whose birth it celebrated. That does not seem plausible. We have Veteran’s Day and Labor Day but they are just party days for most people. They lose their original meaning as time passes.
Clearly, there was great uncertainty, but also a considerable amount of interest, in dating Jesus’ birth in the late 2nd century. By the 4th century, however, we find references to January 6 in the East (especially in Egypt and Asia Minor). The modern Armenian church continues to celebrate Christmas on January 6th. For European Christians, however, December 25th seems to have emerged more as a transformation of Sol Invictus to Chistmas by the time of the rise of Christianity and Constantine I the Great. This appears to be once again one Pi cycle of 31.4 years from 274AD taking us to 305AD. By the time we have The Battle of the Milvian Bridge which took place between the Roman Emperors Constantine I and Maxentius on October 28th, 312AD the armies were predominantly Christain.
Therefore, the 12 days of Christmas were the difference between the West being December 25th and the East being January 6th. The earliest mention of December 25 as Jesus’ birthday comes from a mid-4th-century Roman almanac that lists the death dates of various Christian bishops and martyrs. The first date listed, December 25, is marked: natus Christus in Betleem Judeae: “Christ was born in Bethlehem of Judea.” Therefore, around 400AD Augustine of Hippo mentions a local dissident Christian group, the Donatists, who apparently kept Christmas festivals on December 25. That appears to simply be the date of Sol which was morphed into Christmas being that Sol Invictus was also seen as a supreme god.
As far as exchanging gifts or small figurines known as sigillaria, that took place on the Holiday of Saturnalia which was the feast of Saturn celebrated on December 17th. The two holidays became merged on December 25th with the commercial aspect of gift-giving. The image of Sol became the Statue of Liberty with the rays of sunlight emerging from his head.
The idea that money will simply expire is by no means nothing new. Even the interest-baring notes of the American Civil War had expirations.
COMMENT: Hi Marty, you are right with the Reddit crowd and their non-wisdom concerning trading, check this Headline: „Reddit Trader DeepFuc*ingValue Loses $19 Million In Two Days As He Holds On To Gamestop Stock“ Keith Patrick Gill, CFA, a title which the 34-year-old used while working in marketing for Mass Mutual, which he joined in 2019. The title then became worthless to Gill after he recently quit the life insurer to focus on just one thing: trading and spreading the gospel about Gamestop stock out of a basement of the home he rents in Wilmington, Mass… and boy was he successful.
SP
REPLY: This was his entry into the real world. In his frequent posts on Reddit’s WallStreetBets thread, Keith Gill became the man behind the market manipulation of GameStop. He was sharing screenshots of his portfolio which inspired thousands of amateur retail investors to follow him. He was said to have orchestrated the biggest short squeeze ever.
Gamestop was not a serious stock in the world of finance. A standard technical analysis projected a high at 490 and it peaked at 483. The patterns were picked up by our c0mputer in our Global Market Watch which is entirely a pattern recognition model.
Despite all the hype that this was some war against Wall Street, this is by no means a battle against shorts. No market can be manipulated beyond reason. Because the liquidity was not there and some hedge funds’ and their algorithms failed, then the spike was possible, but not sustainable. In analysis we have a golden rule – what goes up abruptly, comes down just as abruptly.
As always, politicians, once they taste power, just cannot stay away. Mario Draghi, the guy who has destroyed Europe with his negative interest rates since 2014 which failed, is now courting to become the Prime Minister of Italy. He was born September 3rd, 1947, and is now 74 years old. Enough is never enough. They assume people vote simply because they have heard his name. They are clueless as to his policies or what he would even do for Italy. Like Biden, governments are being taken over by the walking dead – people who have never accomplished anything in life but work in government in one post revolving to another.
The highest price ever paid for a Botticelli was just realized – $92 million. This is clearly part of the shift in assets from public to private. I certainly would rather have a $92 million Botticelli than a $92 million house in California right now.
QUESTION: In your opinion, how serious is the idea of taxing unrealized capital gains? That would sure make the decision a lot clearer for big money on where to park. 3% in China sure beats big taxes in the Dow. Unless big money doesn’t trust China.
DS
ANSWER: I seriously doubt that they will do what is simply referred to as an “unrealized capital gains” tax. What is in the works is a Wealth Tax as they will call it. Just follow California, the land of endless taxation without reform. The very fact that these people in government keep raising taxes PROVES they are incompetent in running a government. This is as if you were in business and your sales are declining so instead of trying to boost your sales, you increase your profit margin raising the prices instead of marking it more attractive to consumers.
All you need to do is look at California. I wish Trump won and they would have moved to separate from the USA and I would have gladly paid all their legal fees to get rid of the worst state in the union. They chase people out of the state and have constantly tried to hunt them down. They tried going after people who moved to Florida claiming they still had to pay taxes in California because they once lived there. That is in direct opposite of what the American Revolution – no taxation without representation.
Currently, California’s wealthiest 1% pay approximately 46% of total state income taxes and that is still not enough. They are trying to put in an additional wealth tax on individual taxes and including those taxpayers who have abandoned California. They are now trying to raise taxes on the top 1% so they would then pay 53% of all individual taxes in California. Indeed, like New York, if you just visit the state they want to tax your income. A friend left New York, moved to Florida, but his wife kept going back to visit friends. They traced her phone calls and just one call from inside New York was held as being there for one month and went after him for state income tax despite not living there. The Shakespeare line “The first thing we do is kill all the lawyers” referred to the king’s prosecutors who did the same thing confiscating people’s property for taxes (private lawyers did not exist then only the king had lawyers).
As for readers in California, I have warned you the old song which was one of my favorites from the Eagles, “Hotel California”, is indeed the state’s national anthem
“You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.”
California’s Legislature is considering a wealth tax on residents, part-year residents, and any person who spends more than 60 days inside the state’s borders in a single year without voting rights so no taxation without representation is ignored. Even those who move out of state would continue to be subject to the tax for a decade! I implore our California readers – get out while you can!
The real danger is California has been the lead lobbyist in Congress to pass a law whereby all 401Ks are seized and then managed by the state pension because they are broke! They want to take private 401K money and redistribute it to state employees. Now that the left is fully in control, there is a danger of that idea as state pensions fold and there is an undertone of creating a Wealth Tax nationally. This would certainly push capital out. I was asked by clients if I would start a bank in Switzerland that did not lend money. I looked at the issue and they imposed a Wealth Tax of 0.04% and said it was minimal. The problem was, you had to declare absolutely everything you own around the world. They then would share that with the rest of the world. It was not very attractive and that is why small Swiss banks have been going out of business rapidly over the years. California is following the Swiss Wealth Tax but ignoring that decline in business.
It would force me to push myself for a separatist movement. The retired people living in Florida would still collect their Social Security as if they were living in Spain or someplace else like Mexico where a lot of ex-pats have moved. Those on the left will never end with their taxation because they will always spend more than they have. There is no responsibility whatsoever.
The next American Revolution will probably have a new slogan –
The first financial capital of the United States was Philadelphia. A walk down Chestnut street and you will see all the old banks which have been turned into mostly restaurants. That was the home of the Bank of the United States which Andrew Jackson was intent on destroying. But Philadelphia continued to be the financial center. Even the Philadelphia Stock Exchange predated New York which was founded in 1792. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange was founded in 1790 but was originally named the Board of Brokers of Philadelphia. On May 17, 1792, twenty-four brokers signed the Buttonwood Agreement, which eventually became the New York Stock Exchange.
Jay Cooke was the financier of the Civil War and the first primary dealer located in Philadelphia. His firm was the largest and it failed during the Panic of 1878. The House of Morgan was actually born out of the partnership of Drexel, Morgan & Co., which formed by Anthony J. Drexel of Philadelphia with his protégé and partner, J. Pierpont Morgan in 1871 which became a New York firm. Following Drexel’s death, the company reorganized in 1895 and became J.P. Morgan & Co. which became an investment banker that financed the formation of the United States Steel Corporation. It became the world’s first billion-dollar corporation. Also in 1895, J.P. Morgan & Co. supplied the United States government with $62 million in gold to float a bond issue and restore the treasury surplus of $100 million.
J. Pierpont Morgan became the target of much criticism and it was this image of bailing out the US Treasury from the silver Democrats that painted him as a profiteer because the bonds he floated rallied and many claimed he intentionally underpriced then to make money on the bonks.
I have often explained that the Economic Confidence Model is fractal. Thus, 2 x 8.6 equals 17.2. Hence, 17.2 x 8.6 = 147.92. What is emerging is the gradual decline in New York and the shift in the financial capital of the United States once again. The shift from Philadelphia to New York began gradually from the opening of the company in New York in 1871. However, it was the Panic of 1878 which undermined Jay Cooke & Co and shifted the power to Drexel. The New York office began to rise and with Drexel’s death, Morgan became most famous by bailing out the US Treasury in 1895.
What is most interesting is that the shift from Wall Street in New York to Miami is underway. Goldman Sachs was moving its most profitable operation to Florida and so many others are now starting to follow. The lockdowns have wiped out jobs and small businesses in New York which is looking more like a ghost town after the gold rush was over. But it has also wiped out the need for offices with only 8% of the people returning. Bill Gates won. He has ended commuting to reduce CO2 and the politicians were so eager to get rid of Trump, they never considered they were undermining New York itself. Our model is projecting the by the sheer volume of assets, the shift from New York to Florida is underway and Florida may exceed that of New York altogether by 2025/2026 (1878 + 147.92).
QUESTION: What is your opinion on Kondratieff Waves?
EH
ANSWER: All those investigating cycles within the economy made a simple mistake. Kondratieff followed agriculture/commodity prices when agriculture accounted for 70% of the GDP pre-19th century. That only began to decline from 1850 forward, dropping to 40% by 1900 as the Industrial Revolution emerged with the invention of the steam engine. Moreover, aside from climate impacting the food supply, there were also wars. So the Kondratieff Wave failed to take into account all of the external forces.
If we extend the K-Wave 54 years from the commodity high in 1919, that brings us to 1973 which was close to the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, and the OPEC Oil crisis. Another 54 years from there will bring us to 2027. Therefore, this may be based entirely on commodities, but they were impacted by weather and war. Note 2027 is the ideal target on our model for war derived from entirely different sources.
There is a cycle of industrialization as well. Rome began as an agrarian society and moved toward trade, which brought them into conflict with Carthage. Rome itself became more like New York and grain was imported from Egypt. As agriculture became more of an import, Rome blossomed like New York into the arts and culture. The shift toward industrialization also resulted in a decline in birth rates for children. Large families were needed in an agrarian society but not so much in a developed society – hence the family laws of Augustus.
The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD by Emperor Justinian in Constantinople. He proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. This went hand and hand with developed societies and urbanization.
Consequently, when you are looking at long-term cycles, a few hundred years is not enough data. If Kondratieff were alive today and based his study on just the current system, he would be focusing on services rather than commodity-based economies. Agriculture has fallen to just 1.41% of the civil workforce.
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