Published on Aug 7, 2019
Published on Aug 7, 2019
In France, the Catholic Assumption Day, or Assomption in France, is the day in Roman Catholic tradition when Mary, mother of Jesus Christ, was taken bodily up into heaven. It is celebrated on August 15th each year and is a Holy Day of Obligation for Catholics in France. It is also a public holiday with banks and most businesses closed.
From France, a reader has sent this in. The Marian Procession, as it is known, was surrounded by the army, not police. Many emails have come in about this and it is not being reported in mainstream media. Many are being left with the feeling that a once Catholic country has been reduced to the point that Catholics now require military protection to worship.
This is indeed becoming very disturbing and the sentiment is rising in France where we may indeed see a revolution in the making.
QUESTION: Mr Armstrong,
In this morning’s blog you stated that the Dems are trying to take control of the power in Chicago, which I assume is the plan for everywhere eventually. My question is; In your opinion is the fact they are being so blatant in their attack on our freedoms indicate that they are desperate or just arrogant and confident?
ANSWER: Unfortunately, the answer is yes they are desperate, but arrogant and have convinced themselves the rest of the world is evil. This is socialism collapsing because they have promised everything but funded nothing. Instead of looking at the problem, they think all they have to do is solve next month’s rent and worry about what comes later, later.
I know there are people who are extremely left and read this blog simply because they hate me and need something to rant about to others. But if we look just at the unfunded liabilities for pensions on a global scale, it will reach $400 trillion by the end of this cycle. There is certainly NO WAY this can be achieved if you confiscate absolutely every dime anyone has who earns more than $100,000 annually. We are in a total meltdown. They can rant all they want, but the math will catch up and their future will not exist. Their hatred of anyone who has more than them blinds them to their own demise.
I know they do not want to hear it and they just want their benefits at all costs. But this is how Empires, Nations, and City-States crumble to dust. I am sorry, but we cannot live in a financially fictional world. If we do not wake up soon, well, all I can say is thank God I am not 25. I feel like saying: “Please, Scotty beam me up!”
you said central bankers attend your conference and it means they know what’s coming.
I guess they talk to governments and I wonder if governments will tell people what’s
coming or they will pretend everything is fine until everyone ‘lose shirt’?
ANSWER: No. Just about every intelligence agency also tunes in. That does NOT mean they listen and do what we advise. They just want to know what we are saying. I was surprised that one central bank openly admitted who they were. They all want to know what is happening, but are not necessarily capable of acting. I do meet directly with some central banks because they know we are global and they need that perspective. When it comes crashing down, we will most likely get the call as it seems we always do. But that does not mean we can fix anything, and at best, getting a call in the middle of a collapse is not ideal, to say the least.
They will always tune in because we are not the lunatic fringe but have substantial clients globally. We have a track record and meet with central banks from Asia to the Middle East. They know we understand the game. This is not about conspiracy theories or crazy proposals. They know we are international and have a wealth of contacts.
QUESTION: Marty: If I have this correctly, you’ve said the Great Depression of the 1930s was a Global Capital Flow problem set in motion largely by sovereign debt issues that led to a massive capital flight into the dollar which created a tidal wave of deflation. Are we seeing this scenario today?
ANSWER: Yes. It is the economic crisis outside the USA that is compelling the dollar to move higher. This is what caused deflation and ultimately forced Roosevelt to devalue the dollar. You can see the dramatic spike and rally in the dollar as Europe defaulted on its debts but the US held.
There is a very Dark Cloud hovering over the world economy and at the center of this cloud lies not just Europe, but Germany – the strongest economy holding up all of Europe. The German manufacturing sector is in freefall. Trump will be blamed calling this the result of his Trade War. It is probably too late to get him to even understand that his advisers are old-school and completely wrong with respect to trade. Their obsession with currency movements is what they taught back in school during the 1930s. My advice to China, let the yuan float and Trump will quickly see that China has been supporting its currency, not suppressing it.
Manufacturing indicators have deteriorated globally, yet in a very disproportionate manner. Trump will be blamed for this and his badgering the Fed to lower interest rates is also a fool’s game. Nobody looks at the elderly who were told to save for retirement and you will live off the interest. Their house values were undermined in the 2007-2009 New York Banker’s Mortgage-Backed scam that blew up the world economy from which we have been unable to fully recover. The younger generation cannot afford to buy a house as they are saddled with student loans thanks to the Clintons for degrees that are worthless as 65% cannot find jobs in what they have degrees for these days.
The insanity of those in power knows no boundary when it comes to stupidity around the world. All they have is interest rates and after more than 10 years of excessively low to negative interest rates failing to stimulate the economy in Europe, what do they do? They argue that all physical money must be eliminated because people are hoarding cash and thus defeat their lower interest rates policy. The IMF recommends confiscating all cash and then driving interest rates deeply negative to force recovery. They remain ignorant that they have destroyed the retirement of the elderly now, as well as the those who have yet retired because they command pension funds must invest in government bonds to various percentages ensuring that pensions will collapse as well.
Manufacturing has been contracting compared to the service sector even on a global basis. The financial markets have appeared to be disconnected from the underlying economic trends because capital smells a very big rat. Capital has been shifting toward preservation rather than how much profit can it make today. Even the 10-year 3-month interest rates in the USA have tipped into the inverted yield curve confusing many that this is a sign of impending doom. They fail to read the tea leaves that capital is looking for a place to just park. Traditionally, inverted yield curves take place during recessions and we are in one globally heading into a major low come January 2020.
The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) has been on point despite the fact that schools warn you cannot forecast the business cycle yet the ECM has proven them wrong for decades. This particular cycle is exceptional. The central banks outside the USA have single-handedly destroyed their bond markets with Quantitative Easing. They are trapped and cannot allow interest rates to now rise to normal levels as they have kept the various governments on life-support.
While central banks have tried to “stimulate” the economy, federal, state, and local governments are in dire need of money and have been raising taxes and increasing enforcement. Government pensions are wiping out budgets in Europe, America, and Japan. The forces of the central banks have been directly opposed by the political fiscal side of government.
We are facing a very Dark Financial Storm from which there is no escape. There is no advice being given to so many governments to avoid this crisis and waking up next year to this error will be too late. There will be nothing that can be done to put it all back together and live happily ever after. Welcome to the reality we face. At least this will make for a very interesting WEC. Make no mistake about it. They will lay all the blame on Trump and attribute this to trade rather than finance.
QUESTION: Warren Buffet has been a value investor and has only been interested in profits. You have explained that the trends shift and profits will yield to capital preservation. Would you say that Buffett is just wrong on his views?
ANSWER: There is absolutely no relationship you will EVER discover that remains constant if you are looking at ratios between markets like silver, gold, or price earning ratios. The peak in the PE Ratio on the S&P 500 took place at the bottom in 2009, reflecting the shift from corporate profits to capital preservation. The classic question that arises is always fixed on the profit perspective rather than capital preservation. So people ask, “Can corporate profits keep booming by growing faster than the economy?”
Back in the 1980s, I was getting blamed for creating the takeover boom because I was admittedly advising a number of the takeover players. I was also showing these charts at seminars back then. The book value of companies bottomed in 1977 and it was clear that you could buy a company, sell off its assets, and more than double your money. Markets move to extremes on both sides, and in the 1980s the share market was EXTREMELY undervalued.
There are people calling for a major crash because they argue that profits are detached from the reality of the overall economy, which has been propelling stock prices higher which has introduced a dynamic that is presenting a huge danger to the market. This is predicated on the presumption that the normal ebb and flow of markets demand a correction to realign equity values back to their traditional share of GDP. This thinking fails to understand that at times capital is NOT LOOKING to make a profit, but just to park money for preservation.
These same people who have missed the rally claim that the S&P 500’s fantastic performance since late 2016 has been exclusively about earnings. They NEVER look outside the country nor do they even look outside that single domestic perspective. They do not look at the world economy as a whole, and as such, they are completely dead wrong and attribute everything to one-sided domestic analysis.
That said, the answer to your question is Buffett wrong? The answer is YES!!!!! His little nitch was good from the ’80s for the market was UNDERVALUED and as such being a “value investor” was appropriate for that time period. The markets have shifted to capital preservation, which has also inspired the corporate buy-backs. Value Investing is now fading. Capital is shifting because of currency, risk in other countries, and none of this has to do with simplistic earnings.
Welcome to the new trend of Country Risk. You have to now keep your eye on all the balls flying around. This is not a game of baseball with a single pitche
QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
reading your blog daily I am wondering how much and what exactly has to change in the peoples’ minds apart from the global changes that will manifest through all that is in alignment according to cycles that you have presented to the world. You are one of the few people, but there are also few people that read your blog, so there is still the masses. I am mean, there is a cycle to the collective consciousness for sure but also according to what you write about history it usually culminates in some riots and/or even revolution. If you have the time, would you enlighten us to how we “grow” from an active and conscious collective (individuals in a Society) into a complacent and disgruntled one?
The spark that wakes up the majority of people up is what I am curious about.
ANSWER: Economics is always the spark. It would not be simply because I write this blog that the world will wake up. The readership is by no means that extensive. The issue is self-interest. A recent Gallup Poll stated that about 35% of the people believe that government is the problem. We stand on the threshold of when the money-class (institutional) are beginning to realize that the central banks are trapped and that they lack the power to manipulate the economy. That is the readership here. As they begin to move, that impacts other aspects of the economy and the average person will then respond out of their self-interest.
What comes first is the collapse of confidence in the money-class. As that shifts, then we see the markets respond and it will be the free markets that apply the pressure for the political changes ahead.
I moved from calif. and bought a home in Nevada but I took a loan on the home instead
of paying it off.
My question should I pay off the house or invest the money.
With what is coming I am confused on this issue.
ANSWER: If you have a FIXED mortgage, do not pay it off. If it is at an old high rate then you should refinance. Cash will be better served in liquid markets when the time comes, not tied up in a property that you may not be able to sell when banks stop issuing mortgages
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