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Mar 1 2021

Ideas Repeat throughout History


Armstrong Economics Blog/History Re-Posted Mar 1, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Good morning,

I am glad to see that you publicly touched on the idea of expiring credits, that in fact are in play. It is an old idea that has been talked and written about by members of the Club in many of their Private think tanks and in books and other literature going back to the early 1900s, if not earlier. Being sold as a way to bring about inflation, has other benefits, such as control, which would fit nicely with the elimination of private property.

There is no doubt the Club is desirous of this idea and is looking to bring this about soon. Of course, the people will have to use expiring credits, but not the elite. As it is still more of the same, expiring credits for thee, but not for me. The elite will continue to be allowed to have a way to accumulate and preserve wealth.

Now whether this idea will be brought out and be successful, is debatable. The main point is that it is in the works and not a benefit to most.

REPLY: I find it very interesting how history repeats yet these people think they have come up with an original idea. They NEVER do their research to see if it was ever used previously and how did it perform. Like the prostitute tokens of Rome trying to undermine the trade. Today, aside from trying to move to digital currency to terminate the underground economy, we still have politicians constantly trying to regulate vice one way or another without success. New York is legalizing prostitution so the girls do not go to jail but their patrons do. There were well-established houses of prostitution in Rome known as Lupanare. There too, we saw attitudes swing back and forth. The interesting aspect is that as Christianity became the state religion post 300AD, the prostitution moved to bath-houses.

So when Rome fell, so did bathing because to say you went to take a bath was one and the same to engage in prostitution. This gradually changed from prostitution to disease whereby engaging in bathing was seen as a questionable deed. A 16th-century book titled This is the Myrour or Glasse of Helth, advised: “Use not baths or stews, nor sweat too much, for all openeth the pores of a man’s body and maketh the venomous air to enter and for to infect the blood.”

It was actually Henry VIII’s marriage to Katherine of Aragon (1485-1536) that imported a cultural change. The sixteen-year-old Katherine was shocked when men would relieve their bladders in public places (Emerson 1996). The favorite spot for a urinal was the huge fireplaces of the times. This behavior she insisted had to end. In 1573, Thomas Tusser wrote in his ‘Five hundreth Goode Pointes of Husbandrie:

Some make the chimnie chamber pot to smell like Filthie stink,
Yet who so bold, so soone to say, fough, how These houses stink? (Hibbert 1987, p. 201).

Katherine of Aragon’s marriage turned the Tudor court upside down. The ‘pissing areas’ were phased out by constructing more garderobes in the chambers of the palaces. She insisted on a new stricter guideline for the behavior of those at court and moved the Tudors toward higher standards of cleanliness. Like her father, Elizabeth I (1533-1603) maintained high standards and was said to have been offended by smell and uncleanliness. She was known to have regular baths and she had a portable bath she would travel with. The prevailing attitude that full bathing was unhealthy and could lead to death, was a curious transition from the uncleanly prostitution that took place in Roman bathhouses. Elizabeth shocked everyone when she insisted on bathing during her life and death battle with smallpox in 1562. The doctors swore she would die.

So I find it interesting that ideas seem to simply repeat throughout history just as futures contracts began in Babylon or insurance reappeared in London by people meeting in a coffee house of Llyod’s – ie Starbucks. But the interesting connection between prostitution and bathing and how that migrated to being just unhealthy to take a bath shows how something begins based upon one idea, the tradition is maintained, but the idea to justifies it morphs over time.

Christmas is the same thing. December 25th was the feast of the sun god Sol. From the time of the Roman Emperor Elagabalus (218-222AD), there was a movement toward the sun god who was called Sol Invictus insofar as he rose every day and thus was invincible. It was sort of a movement toward this idea of a superior god.

Here is a gold medallion of Constantine (307-337AD) with Sol. Until the Council of Nicaea in 325AD, Christians were persecuted, churches set ablaze and their wealth confiscated. The persecution of Christians peaked under the rule of Emperor Diocletian (ca. 245 – 316) which was one Pi cycle 31.4 years from Elagabalus. Diocletian wanted to revive old pagan cults and make them into a kind of state religion. The decline was Rome was being blamed on the Christians for refusing to worship the Roman gods. But Diocletian’s anti-Christian policies failed and were revoked under ultimately his successor, Emperor Constantine I.

However, Christianity did not really become the religion of the entire Roman Empire until officially February 27, 380AD. The decree of the Eastern Roman Emperor Theodosius I (379-395AD) had far-reaching consequences. It bound the Judeo-Christian roots of the European continent to Greco-Roman culture. About 200AD, a Christian teacher Clement of Alexandria (c. 150 – c. 215AD) in Egypt made reference to the date Jesus was born. According to Clement, several different days had been proposed by various Christian groups. Nevertheless, Clement never mentioned December 25 at all.

Nobody knew the day Christ was born, so with most holidays, they rapidly lose their meaning. Christmas, being December 25, was transformed from the feast of sol to that of Jesus. In 274AD, the Roman emperor Aurelian (270-275AD) established a feast of the birth of Sol Invictus (the Unconquered Sun), on December 25. He was trying to reestablish the confidence in the Roman Empire after the currency collapsed following the capture of the Roman Emperor Valerian I (253-260AD) in 260AD by the Persians. Creating Sol Invictus as an official holiday was in part to reassure the people that Sol would protect the Romans.

It was not that if Christmas looked like a pagan holiday, more pagans would be open to both the holiday and the God whose birth it celebrated. That does not seem plausible. We have Veteran’s Day and Labor Day but they are just party days for most people. They lose their original meaning as time passes.

Clearly, there was great uncertainty, but also a considerable amount of interest, in dating Jesus’ birth in the late 2nd century. By the 4th century, however, we find references to January 6 in the East (especially in Egypt and Asia Minor). The modern Armenian church continues to celebrate Christmas on January 6th. For European Christians, however, December 25th seems to have emerged more as a transformation of  Sol Invictus to Chistmas by the time of the rise of Christianity and Constantine I the Great. This appears to be once again one Pi cycle of 31.4 years from 274AD taking us to 305AD. By the time we have The Battle of the Milvian Bridge which took place between the Roman Emperors Constantine I and Maxentius on October 28th, 312AD the armies were predominantly Christain.

Therefore, the 12 days of Christmas were the difference between the West being December 25th and the East being January 6th. The earliest mention of December 25 as Jesus’ birthday comes from a mid-4th-century Roman almanac that lists the death dates of various Christian bishops and martyrs. The first date listed, December 25, is marked: natus Christus in Betleem Judeae: “Christ was born in Bethlehem of Judea.” Therefore, around 400AD Augustine of Hippo mentions a local dissident Christian group, the Donatists, who apparently kept Christmas festivals on December 25. That appears to simply be the date of Sol which was morphed into Christmas being that Sol Invictus was also seen as a supreme god.

As far as exchanging gifts or small figurines known as sigillaria, that took place on the Holiday of  Saturnalia which was the feast of Saturn celebrated on December 17th. The two holidays became merged on December 25th with the commercial aspect of gift-giving. The image of Sol became the Statue of Liberty with the rays of sunlight emerging from his head.

The idea that money will simply expire is by no means nothing new. Even the interest-baring notes of the American Civil War had expirations.

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Economics • Tagged 100 Year Bonds, Amusement Tax, Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Baby Bust, Big Government, BOJ, bubbles, Business cycle, cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Corruption, Credit, CRS, cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Davos, Debt, debt bubbles, DEODAND, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic collapse, economics, Economics Confidence Model, Edelman Trust Barometer, Electronic Recovery and Access to Data Device, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FBAR filings, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Forced loans, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, glazier’s fallacy, gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, Homeless Tax, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Implanted chips in you hand, inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Italy, Keynesian economics, Legal entity identifier, LEI, Marxism, MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, Modern Money Theory, Monetary collapse, Monetary Crisis Cycle, money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, Never enough, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Out of control medical industry, Outlaw Cash, Panics, Passwords, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, PINs, police asset forfeiture, policing for profit, Pre-Pay VAT, Privilege Tax, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, SDR, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, Speeding Cameras, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, Tax on employees, Tax on Water, Tax the internet, The Forecaster, The Great Alignment, the Great Depression, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Traffic Cameras, Turkey, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, US Dollar’s now the world’s currency, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, Veras   Hunt for Taxes, wealth tax, Yellow Vest Movement
0
Feb 4 2021

Gamestop = Game Over?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Conspiracy Re-Posted Feb 4, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hi Marty,
you are right with the Reddit crowd and their non-wisdom concerning trading, check this Headline: „Reddit Trader DeepFuc*ingValue Loses $19 Million In Two Days As He Holds On To Gamestop Stock“
Keith Patrick Gill, CFA, a title which the 34-year-old used while working in marketing for Mass Mutual, which he joined in 2019. The title then became worthless to Gill after he recently quit the life insurer to focus on just one thing: trading and spreading the gospel about Gamestop stock out of a basement of the home he rents in Wilmington, Mass… and boy was he successful.

SP

REPLY: This was his entry into the real world. In his frequent posts on Reddit’s WallStreetBets thread, Keith Gill became the man behind the market manipulation of GameStop.  He was sharing screenshots of his portfolio which inspired thousands of amateur retail investors to follow him. He was said to have orchestrated the biggest short squeeze ever.

Gamestop was not a serious stock in the world of finance. A standard technical analysis projected a high at 490 and it peaked at 483. The patterns were picked up by our c0mputer in our Global Market Watch which is entirely a pattern recognition model.

Despite all the hype that this was some war against Wall Street, this is by no means a battle against shorts. No market can be manipulated beyond reason. Because the liquidity was not there and some hedge funds’ and their algorithms failed, then the spike was possible, but not sustainable. In analysis we have a golden rule – what goes up abruptly, comes down just as abruptly.

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Economics • Tagged 100 Year Bonds, Amusement Tax, Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Baby Bust, Big Government, BOJ, bubbles, Business cycle, Carbon tax, cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Corporate greed, Corruption, Credit, CRS, cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Davos, Debt, debt bubbles, DEODAND, Digital dollar, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic collapse, economics, Economics Confidence Model, Edelman Trust Barometer, Electronic Recovery and Access to Data Device, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FBAR filings, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Forced loans, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, Gift Cards, glazier’s fallacy, gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, Homeless Tax, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Implanted chips in you hand, inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Italy, Keynesian economics, Legal entity identifier, LEI, Marxism, MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, Modern Money Theory, Monetary collapse, Monetary Crisis Cycle, money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, Never enough money to give away, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Out of control medical industry, Outlaw Cash, Panics, Passwords, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, PINs, police asset forfeiture, policing for profit, Pre-Pay VAT, Privilege Tax, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, SDR, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign debt crises, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, Speeding Cameras, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, Tax on employees, Tax on Water, Tax the internet, The Forecaster, The Great Alignment, the Great Depression, The Great Reset, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Traffic Cameras, Turkey, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, US Dollar’s now the world’s currency, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, wealth tax, Yellow Vest Movement
0
Feb 4 2021

Mario Draghi – The Destroyer of the Euro – He’s Back!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Feb 4, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

As always, politicians, once they taste power, just cannot stay away. Mario Draghi, the guy who has destroyed Europe with his negative interest rates since 2014 which failed, is now courting to become the Prime Minister of Italy. He was born September 3rd, 1947, and is now 74 years old. Enough is never enough. They assume people vote simply because they have heard his name. They are clueless as to his policies or what he would even do for Italy. Like Biden, governments are being taken over by the walking dead – people who have never accomplished anything in life but work in government in one post revolving to another.

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Civil Society, Economics, International Politics • Tagged 100 Year Bonds, Amusement Tax, Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Baby Bust, Big Government, BOJ, bubbles, Business cycle, Carbon tax, cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Corporate greed, Corruption, Credit, CRS, cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Davos, Debt, debt bubbles, DEODAND, Digital dollar, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic collapse, economics, Economics Confidence Model, Edelman Trust Barometer, Electronic Recovery and Access to Data Device, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FBAR filings, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Forced loans, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, Gift Cards, glazier’s fallacy, gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, Homeless Tax, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Implanted chips in you hand, inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Italy, Keynesian economics, Legal entity identifier, LEI, Mario Draghi, Marxism, MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, Modern Money Theory, Monetary collapse, Monetary Crisis Cycle, money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, Never enough money to give away, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Out of control medical industry, Outlaw Cash, Panics, Passwords, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, PINs, police asset forfeiture, policing for profit, Pre-Pay VAT, Privilege Tax, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, SDR, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign debt crises, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, Speeding Cameras, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, Tax on employees, Tax on Water, Tax the internet, The Forecaster, The Great Alignment, the Great Depression, The Great Reset, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Traffic Cameras, Turkey, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, US Dollar’s now the world’s currency, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, wealth tax, Yellow Vest Movement
0
Jan 31 2021

Art Still Rising in Price – Tangible Assets Rise


Armstrong Economics Blog/Collectibles Re-Posted Jan 30, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The highest price ever paid for a Botticelli was just realized – $92 million. This is clearly part of the shift in assets from public to private. I certainly would rather have a $92 million Botticelli than a $92 million house in California right now.

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Economics • Tagged 100 Year Bonds, Amusement Tax, Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Baby Bust, Big Government, BOJ, bubbles, Business cycle, Carbon tax, cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Corporate greed, Corruption, Credit, CRS, cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Davos, Debt, debt bubbles, DEODAND, Digital dollar, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic collapse, economics, Economics Confidence Model, Edelman Trust Barometer, Electronic Recovery and Access to Data Device, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FBAR filings, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Forced loans, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, Gift Cards, glazier’s fallacy, gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, Homeless Tax, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Implanted chips in you hand, inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Italy, Keynesian economics, Legal entity identifier, LEI, Marxism, MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, Modern Money Theory, Monetary collapse, Monetary Crisis Cycle, money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, Never enough money to give away, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Out of control medical industry, Outlaw Cash, Panics, Passwords, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, PINs, police asset forfeiture, policing for profit, Pre-Pay VAT, Privilege Tax, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, SDR, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign debt crises, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, Speeding Cameras, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, Tax on employees, Tax on Water, Tax the internet, The Forecaster, The Great Alignment, the Great Depression, The Great Reset, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Traffic Cameras, Turkey, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, US Dollar’s now the world’s currency, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, wealth tax, Yellow Vest Movement
0
Jan 23 2021

No Taxation Without Reform


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Jan 22, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: In your opinion, how serious is the idea of taxing unrealized capital gains? That would sure make the decision a lot clearer for big money on where to park. 3% in China sure beats big taxes in the Dow. Unless big money doesn’t trust China.

DS

ANSWER: I seriously doubt that they will do what is simply referred to as an “unrealized capital gains” tax. What is in the works is a Wealth Tax as they will call it. Just follow California, the land of endless taxation without reform. The very fact that these people in government keep raising taxes PROVES they are incompetent in running a government. This is as if you were in business and your sales are declining so instead of trying to boost your sales, you increase your profit margin raising the prices instead of marking it more attractive to consumers.

All you need to do is look at California. I wish Trump won and they would have moved to separate from the USA and I would have gladly paid all their legal fees to get rid of the worst state in the union. They chase people out of the state and have constantly tried to hunt them down. They tried going after people who moved to Florida claiming they still had to pay taxes in California because they once lived there. That is in direct opposite of what the American Revolution – no taxation without representation.

Currently, California’s wealthiest 1% pay approximately 46% of total state income taxes and that is still not enough. They are trying to put in an additional wealth tax on individual taxes and including those taxpayers who have abandoned California.  They are now trying to raise taxes on the top 1% so they would then pay 53% of all individual taxes in California. Indeed, like New York, if you just visit the state they want to tax your income. A friend left New York, moved to Florida, but his wife kept going back to visit friends. They traced her phone calls and just one call from inside New York was held as being there for one month and went after him for state income tax despite not living there. The Shakespeare line “The first thing we do is kill all the lawyers” referred to the king’s prosecutors who did the same thing confiscating people’s property for taxes (private lawyers did not exist then only the king had lawyers).

As for readers in California, I have warned you the old song which was one of my favorites from the Eagles, “Hotel California”, is indeed the state’s national anthem

 “You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.”

California’s Legislature is considering a wealth tax on residents, part-year residents, and any person who spends more than 60 days inside the state’s borders in a single year without voting rights so no taxation without representation is ignored. Even those who move out of state would continue to be subject to the tax for a decade! I implore our California readers – get out while you can!

The real danger is California has been the lead lobbyist in Congress to pass a law whereby all 401Ks are seized and then managed by the state pension because they are broke! They want to take private 401K money and redistribute it to state employees. Now that the left is fully in control, there is a danger of that idea as state pensions fold and there is an undertone of creating a Wealth Tax nationally. This would certainly push capital out. I was asked by clients if I would start a bank in Switzerland that did not lend money. I looked at the issue and they imposed a Wealth Tax of 0.04% and said it was minimal. The problem was, you had to declare absolutely everything you own around the world. They then would share that with the rest of the world. It was not very attractive and that is why small Swiss banks have been going out of business rapidly over the years. California is following the Swiss Wealth Tax but ignoring that decline in business.

It would force me to push myself for a separatist movement. The retired people living in Florida would still collect their Social Security as if they were living in Spain or someplace else like Mexico where a lot of ex-pats have moved. Those on the left will never end with their taxation because they will always spend more than they have. There is no responsibility whatsoever.

The next American Revolution will probably have a new slogan –

NO TAXATION WITHOUT REFORM!

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Domestic Politics, Economics • Tagged 100 Year Bonds, Amusement Tax, Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Baby Bust, Big Government, BOJ, bubbles, Business cycle, Carbon tax, cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Corporate greed, Corruption, Credit, CRS, cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Davos, Debt, debt bubbles, DEODAND, Digital dollar, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic collapse, economics, Economics Confidence Model, Edelman Trust Barometer, Electronic Recovery and Access to Data Device, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FBAR filings, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Forced loans, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, Gift Cards, glazier’s fallacy, gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, Homeless Tax, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Implanted chips in you hand, inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Italy, Keynesian economics, Legal entity identifier, LEI, Marxism, MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, Modern Money Theory, Monetary collapse, Monetary Crisis Cycle, money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, Never enough money to give away, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Out of control medical industry, Outlaw Cash, Panics, Passwords, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, PINs, police asset forfeiture, policing for profit, Pre-Pay VAT, Privilege Tax, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, SDR, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign debt crises, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, Speeding Cameras, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, Tax on employees, Tax on Water, Tax the internet, The Forecaster, The Great Alignment, the Great Depression, The Great Reset, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Traffic Cameras, Turkey, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, US Dollar’s now the world’s currency, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, wealth tax, Yellow Vest Movement
0
Jan 22 2021

NY to Lose Financial Capital of US to Miami?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Jan 22, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The first financial capital of the United States was Philadelphia. A walk down Chestnut street and you will see all the old banks which have been turned into mostly restaurants. That was the home of the Bank of the United States which Andrew Jackson was intent on destroying. But Philadelphia continued to be the financial center. Even the Philadelphia Stock Exchange predated New York which was founded in 1792. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange was founded in 1790 but was originally named the Board of Brokers of Philadelphia. On May 17, 1792, twenty-four brokers signed the Buttonwood Agreement, which eventually became the New York Stock Exchange.

Jay Cooke was the financier of the Civil War and the first primary dealer located in Philadelphia. His firm was the largest and it failed during the Panic of 1878. The House of Morgan was actually born out of the partnership of Drexel, Morgan & Co., which formed by Anthony J. Drexel of Philadelphia with his protégé and partner, J. Pierpont Morgan in 1871 which became a New York firm. Following Drexel’s death, the company reorganized in 1895 and became J.P. Morgan & Co. which became an investment banker that financed the formation of the United States Steel Corporation. It became the world’s first billion-dollar corporation. Also in 1895, J.P. Morgan & Co. supplied the United States government with $62 million in gold to float a bond issue and restore the treasury surplus of $100 million.

J. Pierpont Morgan became the target of much criticism and it was this image of bailing out the US Treasury from the silver Democrats that painted him as a profiteer because the bonds he floated rallied and many claimed he intentionally underpriced then to make money on the bonks.

I have often explained that the Economic Confidence Model is fractal. Thus, 2 x 8.6 equals 17.2. Hence, 17.2 x 8.6 = 147.92. What is emerging is the gradual decline in New York and the shift in the financial capital of the United States once again. The shift from Philadelphia to New York began gradually from the opening of the company in New York in 1871. However, it was the Panic of 1878 which undermined Jay Cooke & Co and shifted the power to Drexel. The New York office began to rise and with Drexel’s death, Morgan became most famous by bailing out the US Treasury in 1895.

What is most interesting is that the shift from Wall Street in New York to Miami is underway. Goldman Sachs was moving its most profitable operation to Florida and so many others are now starting to follow. The lockdowns have wiped out jobs and small businesses in New York which is looking more like a ghost town after the gold rush was over. But it has also wiped out the need for offices with only 8% of the people returning. Bill Gates won. He has ended commuting to reduce CO2 and the politicians were so eager to get rid of Trump, they never considered they were undermining New York itself. Our model is projecting the by the sheer volume of assets, the shift from New York to Florida is underway and Florida may exceed that of New York altogether by 2025/2026 (1878 + 147.92).

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Economics • Tagged 100 Year Bonds, Amusement Tax, Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Baby Bust, Big Government, BOJ, bubbles, Business cycle, Carbon tax, cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Corporate greed, Corruption, Credit, CRS, cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Davos, Debt, debt bubbles, DEODAND, Digital dollar, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic collapse, economics, Economics Confidence Model, Edelman Trust Barometer, Electronic Recovery and Access to Data Device, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FBAR filings, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Forced loans, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, Gift Cards, glazier’s fallacy, gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, Homeless Tax, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Implanted chips in you hand, inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Italy, Keynesian economics, Legal entity identifier, LEI, Marxism, MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, Modern Money Theory, Monetary collapse, Monetary Crisis Cycle, money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, Never enough money to give away, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Out of control medical industry, Outlaw Cash, Panics, Passwords, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, PINs, police asset forfeiture, policing for profit, Pre-Pay VAT, Privilege Tax, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, SDR, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign debt crises, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, Speeding Cameras, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, Tax on employees, Tax on Water, Tax the internet, The Forecaster, The Great Alignment, the Great Depression, The Great Reset, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Traffic Cameras, Turkey, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, US Dollar’s now the world’s currency, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, wealth tax, Yellow Vest Movement
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Jan 22 2021

K-Wave – Real or Not?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Jan 22, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: What is your opinion on Kondratieff Waves?

EH

ANSWER: All those investigating cycles within the economy made a simple mistake. Kondratieff followed agriculture/commodity prices when agriculture accounted for 70% of the GDP pre-19th century. That only began to decline from 1850 forward, dropping to 40% by 1900 as the Industrial Revolution emerged with the invention of the steam engine. Moreover, aside from climate impacting the food supply, there were also wars. So the Kondratieff Wave failed to take into account all of the external forces.

If we extend the K-Wave 54 years from the commodity high in 1919, that brings us to 1973 which was close to the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, and the OPEC Oil crisis. Another 54 years from there will bring us to 2027. Therefore, this may be based entirely on commodities, but they were impacted by weather and war. Note 2027 is the ideal target on our model for war derived from entirely different sources.

There is a cycle of industrialization as well. Rome began as an agrarian society and moved toward trade, which brought them into conflict with Carthage. Rome itself became more like New York and grain was imported from Egypt. As agriculture became more of an import, Rome blossomed like New York into the arts and culture. The shift toward industrialization also resulted in a decline in birth rates for children. Large families were needed in an agrarian society but not so much in a developed society – hence the family laws of Augustus.

The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD by Emperor Justinian in Constantinople. He proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. This went hand and hand with developed societies and urbanization.

Consequently, when you are looking at long-term cycles, a few hundred years is not enough data. If Kondratieff were alive today and based his study on just the current system, he would be focusing on services rather than commodity-based economies. Agriculture has fallen to just 1.41% of the civil workforce.

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Economics • Tagged 100 Year Bonds, Amusement Tax, Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Baby Bust, Big Government, BOJ, bubbles, Business cycle, Carbon tax, cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Corporate greed, Corruption, Credit, CRS, cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Davos, Debt, debt bubbles, DEODAND, Digital dollar, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic collapse, economics, Economics Confidence Model, Edelman Trust Barometer, Electronic Recovery and Access to Data Device, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FBAR filings, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Forced loans, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, Gift Cards, glazier’s fallacy, gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, Homeless Tax, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Implanted chips in you hand, inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Italy, Keynesian economics, Legal entity identifier, LEI, Marxism, MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, Modern Money Theory, Monetary collapse, Monetary Crisis Cycle, money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, Never enough money to give away, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Out of control medical industry, Outlaw Cash, Panics, Passwords, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, PINs, police asset forfeiture, policing for profit, Pre-Pay VAT, Privilege Tax, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, SDR, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign debt crises, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, Speeding Cameras, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, Tax on employees, Tax on Water, Tax the internet, The Forecaster, The Great Alignment, the Great Depression, The Great Reset, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Traffic Cameras, Turkey, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, US Dollar’s now the world’s currency, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, wealth tax, Yellow Vest Movement
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Jan 15 2021

Now its Capital’s Turn to Vote


Armstrong Economics Blog/Capital Flow Re-Posted Jan 14, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Many people have written in asking what is the future of the markets. While in any election, it is presumed that the right to vote belongs only to the citizens who are alive, there has always been a second vote. That second vote is carried out by international capital. As I have explained many times, the DEFINITION of a bull market is one that rises in terms of ALL CURRENCIES!

The Japanese bubble of 1989 was the same as the 1929 bubble in the USA. You can see that the Nikkei rose in value more so in dollars than in yen because the yen was rising. This is what made the bubble. Everyone was there. When the market broke, capital fled. This is now what we must sort out.

It really does not matter who you voted for, if you cannot look at the markets objectively regardless of what you think, then you will lose. All that matters is how capital will respond. Already people are looking at boycotting not just Facebook and Twitter in mass, but all companies that say they will stop all donations to any republican like Coke.

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Domestic Politics, Economics, Uncategorized • Tagged 100 Year Bonds, Amusement Tax, Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Baby Bust, Big Government, BOJ, bubbles, Business cycle, Carbon tax, cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Corporate greed, Corruption, Credit, CRS, cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Davos, Debt, debt bubbles, DEODAND, Digital dollar, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic collapse, economics, Economics Confidence Model, Edelman Trust Barometer, Electronic Recovery and Access to Data Device, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FBAR filings, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Forced loans, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, Gift Cards, glazier’s fallacy, gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, Homeless Tax, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Implanted chips in you hand, inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Italy, Keynesian economics, Legal entity identifier, LEI, Marxism, MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, Modern Money Theory, Monetary collapse, Monetary Crisis Cycle, money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, Never enough money to give away, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Out of control medical industry, Outlaw Cash, Panics, Passwords, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, PINs, police asset forfeiture, policing for profit, Pre-Pay VAT, Privilege Tax, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, SDR, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign debt crises, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, Speeding Cameras, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, Tax on employees, Tax on Water, Tax the internet, The Forecaster, The Great Alignment, the Great Depression, The Great Reset, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Traffic Cameras, Turkey, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, US Dollar’s now the world’s currency, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, wealth tax, Yellow Vest Movement
0
Jan 5 2021

The Rise of China


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Jan 5, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Martin,
Thanks for a great report on your private blog regarding population and cycles. These Great Reset people are killing the whole world!
As an American who has lived in China since 1996, and has followed you since your incarceration, I am a huge believer in cycles and a student of Asian philosophy and martial arts.

I am however having problems reconciling your prediction of the center of Finance moving to China with what I am currently seeing. Please tell me what I am overlooking. Yes, I understand that the west is going to decline compared to its current state while China rises but there still needs to be certain structures in place.

To get the power to shift to a different country you need:

  1.  Stability (China has this)
  2.  Innovation; “the parent of prosperity” ( Money tends to follow innovation and this requires an environment where people are free to tinker and the government does not overly tax or try to assume too much control) It’s a bottom-up process that has not been part of China since the Song Dynasty. So if they are returning to the Innovative Song dynasty they need to rule like the Song did. China has been going away from this since Xi came to power. Locking up its entrepreneurs or stealing their innovations and giving them to their National Champions. If this idea of National Champions had happened in the US we would still be using rotary dialed phones and driving Edsels!
  3.  Rule of Law:
    i. Bankruptcy China asked AmCham and other chambers to help to rewrite its bankruptcy law to enable capital to be quickly redeployed. I have helped to take a few companies through bankruptcy and they still have a very long way to go before capital can be efficiently redeployed.
    ii. Contracts are enforced by the Chinese government on foreign companies but there is no practical way to enforce them on the government.
  4. Markets
    i. Credit markets The markets are not open to the public
    ii. Capital Markets. For every sin, that we read about on Wall Street my contacts inform me that China is two to three times worse. Ponzi and Madoff are alive and well in China.
  5. FX and convertibility of the Chinese Yuan (The capital account is currently not open to the capital markets)

What am I missing?
Thanks in advance to you and your team for addressing this issue.

JB

ANSWER: This is not a personal forecast. But keep in mind that the time frame is post-2032, which will actually be after 2037. So a lot can change between now and then and Xi Jinping will be 84 in 2037. The most critical factor is the rule of law. If that is not definitive, you cannot write any contract because there is no way to enforce it. The culture of copyright infringement was prevalent in Hong Kong where people would come visit offices with knock-off Rolex watches to Gucci bags. A lot needs to change, but the decline from the West is critical. What we are witnessing with this Great Reset is the desperate attempt to keep the governments in power which will only lead to fragmentation. So China simply will become #1 because the West will break apart.

The tyranny of this Triumvirate is to rule the world from the United Nations. China will not surrender to this absurd tyranny. But in the process, they will indeed destroy the very consumer-based economy that was so critical to world peace. Neither China nor Russia will surrender to this tyranny.

Moreover, China moving to a digital currency is also to bypass SWIFT. They will create their own financial network that in the years ahead will be an alternative to the West rather than subordinate to the West. China is well aware that the core of the US economy is the consumer market. They are intent on developing that and this is how they surpass the USA as it stupidly allows the Triumvirate to destroy the foundation of the Western economy. They will surpass the USA in e-commerce.

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in International Politics • Tagged 100 Year Bonds, Amusement Tax, Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Baby Bust, Big Government, BOJ, bubbles, Business cycle, Carbon tax, cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Corporate greed, Corruption, Credit, CRS, cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Davos, Debt, debt bubbles, DEODAND, Digital dollar, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic collapse, economics, Economics Confidence Model, Edelman Trust Barometer, Electronic Recovery and Access to Data Device, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FBAR filings, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Forced loans, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, Gift Cards, glazier’s fallacy, gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, Homeless Tax, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Implanted chips in you hand, inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Italy, Keynesian economics, Legal entity identifier, LEI, Marxism, MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, Modern Money Theory, Monetary collapse, Monetary Crisis Cycle, money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, Never enough money to give away, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Out of control medical industry, Outlaw Cash, Panics, Passwords, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, PINs, police asset forfeiture, policing for profit, Pre-Pay VAT, Privilege Tax, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, SDR, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign debt crises, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, Speeding Cameras, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, Tax on employees, Tax on Water, Tax the internet, The Forecaster, The Great Alignment, the Great Depression, The Great Reset, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Traffic Cameras, Turkey, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, US Dollar’s now the world’s currency, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, wealth tax, Yellow Vest Movement
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Jan 3 2021

Sovereign Debt Crisis Report $75


Armstrong Economics Blog/Reports and DVDs Re-Posted Jan 2, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

We have issued a special report on the Sovereign Debt Crisis and why we even have this Great Reset and where we are headed. This report provides also a historical review of previous sovereign debt defaults and what was the outcome. Some people try to claims that this is the precursor to revolution. That only reveals that they are engaging in sophistry for that is by no means the routine outcome. There have been serial defaults by many nations even in Europe such as Spain and Greece. The Roman Empire never had a national debt. So those claiming the debt default produces revolution is just not true. Historically, there were no pension funds and rarely were there social programs before the Great Depression. We have to set the record straight in order to truly understand what lies ahead.

This report is priced for the General Public …. $75

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By Centinel2012 • Posted in Economics, International Politics • Tagged 100 Year Bonds, Amusement Tax, Armstrong Economics, Asset confiscation, Asset diversification, Asset recycling, Assets, assets bubbles, Baby Bust, Big Government, BOJ, bubbles, Business cycle, Carbon tax, cashless society, centinel2012, central bank, Central Planning, Common Reporting Standard, Communism, Corporate greed, Corruption, Credit, CRS, cryptocurrencies, cryptocurrency, currency manipulation, Curse of Cash, David Pristash, Davos, Debt, debt bubbles, DEODAND, Digital dollar, Disasters, Dodd-Frank, ECB, ECM, Economic collapse, economics, Economics Confidence Model, Edelman Trust Barometer, Electronic Recovery and Access to Data Device, eliminate cash, Eminent Domain, end of liquidity, Euro, FATCA, FBAR filings, FED, financial ponzi schemes, Forced loans, Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, Fraud, Free Market, front running, Gift Cards, glazier’s fallacy, gold, Gold confiscation, Gold Standard, Hedge, Helicopter money, Hoarding Cash, Homeless Tax, housing bubbles, Hunt for Taxes, Hyperinflation, Illinois credit now “Junk”, IMF, IMF Working Paper on Eliminating Cash, Implanted chips in you hand, inflation, Interest, Interest rate, Italy, Keynesian economics, Legal entity identifier, LEI, Marxism, MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, Modern Money Theory, Monetary collapse, Monetary Crisis Cycle, money laundering, money smuggling, negative interest, Never enough money to give away, new world order, No more Stop-loss, Out of control medical industry, Outlaw Cash, Panics, Passwords, Pension Crises, Pension Fund Insolvency, Pension funds, PINs, police asset forfeiture, policing for profit, Pre-Pay VAT, Privilege Tax, progressives, Progressivism, QE, Quantitative Easing, Reversals, SDR, Silver, Social welfare, socialism, Sovereign debt crises, Sovereign Debt Crisis, special drawing rights, Speculation, Speeding Cameras, spoofing, Student Loans, sustainability, Tax on employees, Tax on Water, Tax the internet, The Forecaster, The Great Alignment, the Great Depression, The Great Reset, Too Big to Bailout, Too big to fail, Too big to Jail, Traffic Cameras, Turkey, Turning Points, Understanding cycles, Unemployed, Unexplained Wealth, Unexplained Wealth Orders, Universal income, US Dollar’s now the world’s currency, usury laws, UWO, VAT, Velocity of Money, wealth tax, Yellow Vest Movement
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Centinel2012

Centinel2012

Semi-retired ex-military, ex-businessman, ex-inventor, ex-engineer and now full time member of the Tea Party. My current goal in life is to make sure that the truth is known to all with an open mind.

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