COMMENT: You were here in Brussels a few weeks ago. Suddenly, the ECB is talking about the need to merge the debts to prevent a crisis. So your lobbying here seems to work.

RGV, Brussels

REPLY: I do not lobby. It is rather common knowledge I have made those proposals since the EU commission attended our World Economic Conference held back in 1998 in London. I focused on the reason the Euro would fail if the debts were not consolidated. So it is not a fair statement to say I meet in Brussels to lobby for anything. I meet with people who call me in because of a crisis brewing.

So everyone else understands what this is about, the ECB President Mario Draghi has come out and proposed interlocking the euro countries to create a “stronger” and “new vehicle” as a “crisis instrument” to save Europe. He is arguing that this should prevent countries from drifting apart in the event of severe economic shocks. Draghi has said it provides “an extra layer of stabilization” which is a code phrase for the coming bond crash. He has conceded that the legal structure is difficult because what he is really talking about is the consolidation of national debts into a single Eurobond market. There is no bond market that is viable in Europe after the end of Quantitative Easing. There will be NO BID.

There is no viable bond market left in Europe. The worst debt is below US rates only because the ECB is the buyer. Stop the buying and the ceiling comes crashing down. This is why what he is saying is just using a different label. He is not calling it debt consolidation, just an extra layer of stabilization to bind the members closer together.

It will be a hard sell and it may take the crisis before anyone looks at this. You have “bail-in” policies because of the same problem. If the banks in Italy need a bailout from Brussels, then other members will look at it as a subsidization for Italy which is unfair. There is no real EU unity behind the curtain which is when the debt was NEVER consolidated from day one. They wanted a single currency, but not a single responsibility for the debt.

QUESTION: You chart on the Roman money supply shows a huge spike going into 87BC.  Was that just because of the Social War?

GS

ANSWER: No. During the autumn of 88 BC, there was a massacre of more than 80,000 unsuspecting Roman civilians which took place in Anatolia (western Turkey). The victims were Roman and Italian merchants, slave-traders, and tax collectors. The Romans had conquered that region and many went there to colonize the new province. They were deeply hated by the local population. There was a revolution so to speak that unfolded in 88 BC. The Roman migrants were all massacred right down to the women and children. It was carried out by the local Anatolians, who were composed of both Greeks and Jews. It was well organized for it took place in more than a dozen cities all simultaneously. They exterminated the Roman presence in the region.

The massacre sent a shock wave into the Roman financial system. An economic crisis unfolded in the Roman Republic, which came at the worst time for this is when there was a slave uprising and escalating violence. This was NOT the more famous slave uprising led by Spartacus. That comes into play about 10 years later. They took advantage of the fact that the Roman legions were occupied with the war in Asia.

With this massacre, the Roman Senate declared the perpetrators as Rome’s ‘most wanted enemy’ and dispatched the famous Consul Lucius Cornelius Sulla having received the mandate by lot. He was given several legions fresh from the Social War to implement the mandate — a search and destroy mission. The ensuing wars would drag on for decades, spanning two continents and became known as the First Mithridatic War (88–84 BC) began with a declaration of war by the Senate.

As we can see, when war breaks out, the need for governments to spend more has always unfolded since the dawn of recorded time.

COMMENT: Hello.

I know that although the current level of Socrates is not designed for day trading, but as a professional daytrader even this level is still amazing for that. I simply plot out the numbers that Socrates gives (made an important high at X, resistance forming at Z, etc.) for all three of the major U.S indices. Even when there are not enough points for a certain index, all three tend to generally move at the same times, thus giving most stocks the same pattern for that day. I have been longing and shorting on those numbers and it’s amazing how accurate its been, even with such limited functionality. It’s done far better than any other daytrading system I know.

It has only been a week since I’ve been using it this way. So my question is, how long is a level valid when Socrates says something that may just be a daily level? For example, for the NASDAQ: “The Daily level of this market is currently in a full bullish immediate tone with support at 729174”. I have noticed that the support or resistance levels still bounce from those points even after a day.

It was amazing as there were some people who had been accusing me for quite some time of drawing the lines in advance and that it was impossible to predict beforehand, (I am a member of an online trading forum or reddit.) so I made sure to post them as it happened later.

REPLY: The numbers are the numbers. They are generated by a mathematical formula based upon physics and cyclical movements. No, it is not intended for day trading. However, it provides a road map to any market so you can easily see where it is going. Keep in mind that the most money to be made is in position trading. It may appear that day trading is less risky, but far too often your focus is just the intraday action. You lose sight of the big movements coming in like a wave that is bigger than the rest crashing into the shore.

If you stand at the beach and look at the waves closely, you will notice that one wave is larger than the rest. This is constructive inference. When several waves align in sync, suddenly the wave that is produced is larger than the rest.

This is a fundamental basis of cyclical activity that applies to everything in the universe. It is why the sun beats like your heart. There is a cycle of absolutely everything, which is why we are born, mature, and then die. There are some people who are so afraid of dying, that the sacrifice their life living in fear only to die in the end anyhow.

So never take your eye off the Weekly level at the very least. If you do, the day trading will wipe you out for you will never see that big wave about to hit the market and devastate everyone in its path.

QUESTION:  Hi Marty,

QUESTION: Hello Marty

I am hoping you will print this in your blog.

Everyone knows that Govt’s/Banks print money out of thin air and then “owe interest” to this invented money. To avoid an interest payment death spiral why can’t all the Govt’s in the world just tell the banks to pound sand? Why can’t we tell them “Sorry….we are no longer going to make interest payments on money you invented out of nothing”.

Regards,

Julie

ANSWER: I actually get this question often. I understand that the sophistry out there makes it sound so easy. Unfortunately, this is nowhere near the mark. The bulk of the lending that leverages the money supply is involved in consumer loans. So this really would create a very unfair arrangement that reminds me of the incident with Mark Antony. Everyone talked about the bankers and assumed that Julius Caesar would rule that all debt was to be forgiven. Mark Anthony believed Caesar would do that so he ran out and bought Pompey estate assuming he would never have to pay for it (see Anatomy of a Debt Crisis it appears, only Julius Caesar ever understood).

To do what you suggest may sound simple but it would produce riots and blood in the streets. Your pension would be gone because most funds invest in debt. What if you were retiring and bought muni bonds to live on because you were told they were tax-free? Perhaps you could not sell your house to retire because the buyer could not get a mortgage so you took the mortgage. That would mean he now gets the house for free.

Trust me – it would be a bloodbath in the streets.

QUESTION: Socrates did an amazing job. It called the high in BitCoin right to the day. That makes me wonder. After thinking quietly about the claim that cryptocurrencies will replace everything as a new world monetary system because it will not be centralized and created by a central bank, this seems to be complete BS if the majority of money is created by lending banks. I asked a diehard proponent and he said we have to stop banks from doing that and suddenly the world will be a better place. I think that means no credit and everything would collapse. Am I far off here or are these people at least partially correct? Am I missing something?

DT

ANSWER:  No, you are correct. These people do not understand the monetary system and they take one simple fact and they blame everything on that and the solution is a cryptocurrency to eliminate central banks and the creation of money by lending. That is so impractical it just shows the lunacy of it all. If you stop the creation of money by lending, do you realize property values would crash? We would be back to the Dark Ages where if you wanted to sell your house, the price would be ONLY what cash someone has. That is why FDR created the 30-year mortgages. Real estate fell to virtually zero. It was being auctioned off at 10 cents on the dollar or less.

All pension funds would be wiped out. The savings accounts would not be there for probably 80%+ of banks would close if not 100%. To suggest that the solution is the end of central banks and bank lending, you are talking about blood in the streets. The riots would be incredible if not revolution. The Dark Age was a period where there was no banking and no trade. The Dark Ages was originally classified as the 10th and 11th centuries. There was no lending. People worked for food. They were given land to cultivate and the “landlord” took 80% of the production. They received no wages prior to the Black Death.

The coinage of this period reflects how the economy functioned. The coins are rarely found more than 30 miles away from where they were struck. This confirms that there was no trade. These castles were isolated economic systems with an economy that was 90% agrarian. Banking emerged only with merchants who began to travel selling spices that began to import from the east all over again. In Germany, the merchants who became the banker because they made so much money (merchant banking), were called “Peppermen” because pepper was worth more than gold by weight.

This is what we would return to with no bank lending and no central banking. It’s just not a practical solution. It does not matter what the money actually is. The banks that emerged took deposits and gyro banking was invented. Why? There were far too many clipped coins and counterfeits in circulation. You had to inspect each and every coin for every transaction. It was far more efficient to deposit the coins and the bank certified the coins. Thus, you wrote a check and transferred the funds from your account to another and nobody had to inspect every coin.

If we are going to look at solutions, you just throw these wild ideas out there. They are usually put out there by people who have absolutely no experience in the world economy and assume they know everything.

COMMENT: You always support the rich and never see what they do to the rest of us.

LW

ANSWER: You simply believe the propaganda of governments. The rich get richer by INVESTING in assets. They list Bill Gates among the top in the world. Do you really think one gets rich by making more per hour than the next guy? Wealth is created through assets – not wages. The NUMBER ONE suppressor of the people is all governments. I worked hard trying to get Social Security reformed and privatized when the Dow was 1,000 instead of 100% government bonds. I gave up. Ther are to many pension funds that are restricted to buying government bonds.

It is not the rich that prevent others from investing. It is always the government. If you really add up what you pay in property taxes each year and subtract that from the value, you will quickly see that you probably lost money. When you sell the house, they do not count the taxes paid for decades as part of the cost.

Wealth is created by INVESTMENT – not buying bonds. Who prevents the average person from investing? It’s not Bill Gates.

QUESTION: You have previously said that the Persian monetary system was based on gold, the Greeks used silver and the Romans began with bronze. That actually described the Biblical story of the dream of Nebuchadnezzar’s Statue interpreted by Daniel. Do you think your research into the world Monetary System confirms that interpretation?

WK

ANSWER: I have been asked that question before. Perhaps I have never answered it on this blog. The history of the world monetary system does appear to provide an accurate interpretation of that dream. However, I have my differences. The Persians had plenty of gold from Anatolia. The foundation of their monetary system began with gold. The first coins were actually issued by the Greeks who occupied Anatolia, (Turkey) which was conquered by the Persians who adopted their monetary system. The first coins were gold electrum, a natural alloy of gold and silver mixed. They eventually refined the electrum into gold and silver coins. That was the birth of the bimetal monetary system.

Mainland Greeks possessed silver mines. Athens was famous for its Athenian Owls. The only time we see Owls struck in gold was as an emergency issue during the Peloponnesian War. This is when we see the first debasement of the silver coinage. It was against this backdrop of war in a desperate fight for survival an emergency coinage was issued in gold.  Gold was scarce in the Greek world which relied upon silver. Athens in the last decade of the fifth century was surrounded by the Spartans who cut off their supply of silver by denying them access to their silver mines.

Athens was brought to its knees in the midst of military defeat. At first, Athens survived the by tapping into a reserve treasury of some 1,000 talents of silver. This enabled them to produce about 1.5 million silver tetradrachms. Then by 407BC or 406BC, Athens was no longer able to issue silver coinage. This was when they were forced to coin silver plated tetradrachms.  Aristophanes’ Frogs (718-33) indicate that the gold coins were struck in 407/406BC, and that silver-plated coins were struck in the year as well. The coinage confirms Aristophanes’ account. Some have argued that the Spartan forged the Athenian Owls to undermine their currency as a war tactic.

As for the rare gold coinage of Athens, the Athenians turned to the offerings stored on the Acropolis and the gold-covered statues of Nike. Perhaps this is when one of the Seven Wonder of the ancient world was stripped of her gold – Athena Parthenos. Most people have no clue that the famous Parthenon means ‘house of Parthenos’ meaning the house of Athena the Virgin. The Statute is said to have been taken during the 5th century AD. Some claim it was removed to Constantinople.

Athens had possessed an immense treasury, but it was completely depleted to defend in the war. These emergency funds were used to build and outfit a new fleet that in 405BC was defeated at Aegospotami in the Hellespont by the Spartan general Lysander. The Athenian gold from the war is uncommonly well documented for an ancient coinage. The bullion was stripped from seven of the eight golden Nikai on the Acropolis. Each statue was covered in about two talents worth of gold in the form of removable plates which perhaps could have produced 100,000 drachms weight in gold or 50,000 of the coin pictured here – Didrachm. What happened to this production is not known. Very few of these coins have survived and are worth up to $500,000 each. Perhaps the Spartans just melted down everything they could find.

The Monetary System of Rome began with bronze which traded at first in clumps known as Aes Rude and then took form in ingots and round coins all cast at first rather than struck from dies. The “brass” is Orichalcum which was a rare natural alloy. It was first introduced by Augustus (27BC-14AD).  Nero (54-68AD) made use of Orichalcum to give higher value to certain denominations as the Sestertius and Dupondius.

If we are to address the legs of Iron, sorry that does not fit the monetary description of the Roman Empire. The only monetary system to use iron for coinage was China – not European. Here is an Iron coin made during the period of Emperor Che Tsung (1086 – 1100AD)(33 mm 13.30 grams). After the fall of Rome/Constantinople, the Financial Capital of the World migrated to Asia. So I fail to see where the legs of Iron can be fairly interpreted to be a European Empire.

As far as part clay and part Iron, there is such a use of clay in the production of paper. It was known as China Clay Paper. Even the United States used it in the production of postage stamps for a brief period. It tended to have a bluish cast or tint to the paper.

In 1909, the United States briefly experimented with printing stamps on paper with 20% China Clay added to the otherwise 100% wood pulp used to make paper. The paper had a faint grayish tone, and the stamps printed on it are known as “China Clay” stamps.

While many know that paper money was invented in China, what they usually do not know is that paper itself was invented in China. Ever since the invention of writing, people had been trying to come up with something easier to write on than clay tablets, sheep skins (parchment), or papyrus or. However, it actually took a very long time – some 3000 years to be closer to the notch in the timeline of human society. Paper was invented around 100 BC in China. In 105 AD, under the Han Dynasty emperor Ho-Ti, a government official in China named Ts’ai Lun was the first to start a paper-making industry. He made paper by mixing finely chopped mulberry bark and hemp rags with water. He then mashed pounding it flat. After pressing out the water and letting it dry in the sun, he discovered paper. To be fair, for centuries before people used the mulberry bark to make cloth. Consequently, Ts’ai Lun’s paper was a derivative of that process and turned out to be a huge success. With paper available, Buddhist monks in China began to work on ways of mass-producing prayers. By 650 AD they were block-printing prayers. Tang Dynasty (618-907AD) marks the birth of paper money.

Consequently, I believe that the prevailing interpretation of Nebuchadnezzar’s Dream seems to be biased toward Western culture. There is no known use of iron being used for money outside of China in Europe. If we are going to use the monetary system to explain the empires, we should not omit China.

The emails have started with the conspiracy accusations that this is the second WEC when President Trump will be there in the same place. True, he was in the same hotel in 2016 in a meeting a couple doors away. This time he has announced the meeting with Kim will take place in Singapore. A couple of emails put it that once is a coincidence – twice is a conspiracy. Perhaps true in some instances. However, I do not advise Trump and I have nothing to do with North Korea. If they want to sit in the back of the WEC and learn something, no problem. We will be glad to provide the seats. Otherwise, maybe the rule should be three-times is a conspiracy and twice is still just a coincidence.